379
FXUS64 KMOB 101818
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
118 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

10.12Z Upper air maps/combined with water vapor satellite imagery
show an upper level low/trough axis advancing slowly westward over
east TX with another mid/low level trough axis aligned from the
southeast US to across the eastern Gulf. At the surface, a weak
trough of low pressure was aligned over the northern Gulf and
intersecting plentiful amounts of environmental moisture with PWAT`s
2.0-2.3". Within this zone, clusters of marine storms aligned west
to east across the northern Gulf. The surface boundary will likely
meander north/south in the near term and with the local area between
upper level systems, may see isolated to perhaps a scattering of
showers/storms this afternoon primarily over the southern zones. The
latest 10.12Z run of the short range high res. ensembles keeps
activity isolated and closer to the coastal counties.

The weather pattern is favored to turn more unsettled as we roll
into the early half of the work week. The weak inverted low/mid
level trough over the east Gulf translates westward across the
northern/central Gulf Monday and Tuesday as an upper ridge over the
western Atlantic builds westward. By mid-week, the ridge builds into
the eastern Gulf and moves overhead late in the week. Prior to the
high moving overhead, an axis of deep environmental moisture moves
westward over the local area, PWAT`s 2.0-2.5 inch range on Monday
(potentially lingering into Tuesday). With the westward moving
trough axis and moisture, an upward trend in rain chances is favored
for  Monday/Tuesday. Modest rain chances possible Wednesday before
easing to close out the week/into the weekend as the upper ridge
moves into the region at which time we get into a more typical
summer-time convective pattern. We will however have to keep our
eyes to the north of the local area over the weekend as we could see
clusters of storms drop into the area in an evolving upper level
northerly flow.

With the onset of clouds/rain early in the week, highs will be
tempered in the 80`s and below normal as we enter the middle of the
month of August. Highs do rebound into the lower/mid 90s by late
week/into the weekend. Little change in night-time lows, mostly
in the mid/upper 70s.

Beach Forecast - Rip current risk transitions to LOW for the
upcoming week. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through Monday morning aside from
occasional MVFR ceilings due to pockets of broken cumulus clouds.
Light easterly winds to southeasterly winds will continue through
the forecast. An isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out
this afternoon. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

A generally easterly component of wind flow is expected through
tonight, transitioning to more southerly by Tuesday and west
southwesterly Wednesday/Thursday. Little change in seas. No other
impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible
near thunderstorms. Visibility restricted to less than a mile at
times in heavier convective rains. Lightning will also pose a hazard
to recreational and commercial marine interests. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  88  74  87  74  89  75  91 /  20  70  60  90  30  80  20  60
Pensacola   77  88  77  88  77  89  78  91 /  30  80  70  90  30  60  10  50
Destin      77  88  78  88  79  90  79  91 /  40  80  80  80  30  50  10  40
Evergreen   72  89  73  88  72  91  73  93 /  10  70  50  80  20  60  20  50
Waynesboro  72  89  72  86  72  89  72  92 /  10  50  30  80  20  70  20  60
Camden      72  88  73  86  72  90  73  91 /  10  50  30  70  20  60  20  50
Crestview   73  88  73  88  73  91  73  92 /  20  80  60  90  20  70  10  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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