552
FNUS72 KMLB 271411
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for Kissimmee Prairie...Florida Park Service
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1011 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on June 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

An active weather pattern is forecast over the next couple of days
near the burn site. A moist air mass will remain in place, with
shower and storm development anticipated along the sea breeze each
afternoon. Peak timing for activity looks to roughly be between
3 PM and 8 PM near the site. Lightning strikes, gusty winds,
small hail, and heavy downpours are the primary concerns with any
storms that develop. Activity is anticipated to diminish into the
overnight hours. South to southwest winds are forecast near the
site outside of convection, remaining generally around 10 mph
during the day and becoming lighter overnight. There are no
minimum RH concerns through the period near the burn site.
Afternoon smoke dispersion values are forecast to be fair to good
today, and poor to fair on Saturday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the morning,
                    then chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 8 mph.
Dispersion index....27 increasing to 47 early in the afternoon,
                    then decreasing to 26 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............3 decreasing to 1.

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........34  41  51  53  57  58  56
Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).20  30  30  50  50  50  50
Temp............86  88  89  90  90  90  87
RH..............70  64  61  59  59  58  61
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..5   6   6   7   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.9   10  12  14  13  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...2.9 3.8 4.3 4.5 4.0 2.8 2.7
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   SW  S
Transp wind spd.7   7   8   8   8   8   8
Dispersion idx..27  34  44  45  47  32  26
LVORI...........3   2   1   1   1   1   2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely early in the evening, then
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms early in
                    the evening. Slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms late in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 70.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 10 mph.
Dispersion index....20 decreasing to 2.
LVORI...............2 increasing to 8.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........57     69     54     44     23     24
Weather cov.....LIKELY CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........LIKELY CHANCE S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).60     30     20     10     10     0
Temp............87     79     75     74     73     72
RH..............62     82     94     93     97     97
20 ft wind......SW 6   S 5    S 2    S 2    S 2    S 1
20 ft wind gust.12     10     8      6      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....2200   600    400    400    400    400
Transport wind..S 6    S 10   S 8    SE 6   S 6    S 5
Dispersion idx..20     6      4      2      2      2
LVORI...........2      4      6      7      8      8

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers early in the morning. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the morning, then showers
                    and thunderstorms likely late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 6 mph in
                    the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the morning.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL increasing to 5800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 5 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 5 mph late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....2 increasing to 33.
LVORI...............10 decreasing to 2.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........18     15     21     30     42     52
Weather cov.....       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                     S CHC  LIKELY LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).0      20     20     20     70     70
Temp............71     75     83     89     92     91
RH..............100    97     79     63     55     56
20 ft wind......S 1    S 2    S 2    S 5    S 6    SW 6
20 ft wind gust.5      5      7      8      10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....400    600    2200   4000   5800   4800
Transport wind..S 5    SE 5   S 3    SW 3   SW 5   SW 5
Dispersion idx..2      2      12     20     33     28
LVORI...........10     8      4      2      1      2

$$
Forecaster...Tollefsen
Requested by...Parks Small
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2516787.0/MLB
.DELDT 06/27/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL parks.small@floridaDEP.gov