701
FNUS72 KMLB 130754
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for Atlantic Ridge D4...Florida Park Service
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
354 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on August 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Good morning. Light southerly winds this morning will turn
southeast and increase to 5-10 mph around 2 PM behind the east
coast sea breeze. There is a medium (30-40%) chance for rain and
lightning storms this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and
lightning storms are forecast to develop along the sea breeze in
the early afternoon and progress inland with the boundary. Any
lingering shower and storm activity will dissipate or push away
from the burn site by 7 PM. No min RH concerns. Warm and humid
conditions today with afternoon highs in the low 90s with peak
heat indices of 103-105 degrees. Smoke dispersion values will be
fair to poor today and Thursday. Conditions on Thursday will be
similar to today, except will be slightly warmer, with peak heat
indices of 104-106 degrees.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 7 mph late in
                    the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1600 ft AGL increasing to 3800 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 6 mph shifting to the east 7 to 8
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....7 increasing to 28.
LVORI...............7 decreasing to 3.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........16  8   20  34  29  29  31  30  27  30
Weather cov.....                        CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   10  10  30  40  30  30
Temp............78  82  87  89  90  90  90  90  91  89
RH..............94  82  71  66  63  62  62  63  62  66
20 FT wind dir..SW  S   S   SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..1   2   3   5   6   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.6   6   6   7   7   8   10  12  12  13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 1.6 2.7 3.4 3.5 3.8 3.5 3.3 2.9 2.7
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.3   6   5   5   5   6   7   7   8   8
Dispersion idx..3   11  17  19  19  22  26  27  27  28
LVORI...........7   4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 76.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 10 mph shifting to the west
                    early in the morning.
Dispersion index....26 decreasing to 4 early in the evening.
LVORI...............4 increasing to 7.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........28     25     10     13     14     14
Weather cov.....CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).30     10     0      0      0      0
Temp............88     84     81     80     78     77
RH..............67     76     84     86     92     93
20 ft wind......SE 6   SE 5   SE 3   S 2    S 2    SW 1
20 ft wind gust.12     10     8      8      7      6
Mix hgt (ft)....2200   800    400    400    400    400
Transport wind..E 10   SE 9   S 7    S 8    SW 7   SW 5
Dispersion idx..29     5      4      4      3      2
LVORI...........3      4      5      6      6      7

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Slight chance of showers
                    early in the morning. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the morning, then chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 7 mph in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the morning.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL increasing to 3900 ft AGL late in
                    the morning.
Transport winds.....West 3 to 5 mph shifting to the north late in
                    the morning, then shifting to the east 5 to 8
                    mph in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....6 increasing to 28.
LVORI...............7 increasing to 9 early in the morning, then
                    decreasing to 7 early in the morning decreasing
                    to 5 late in the morning decreasing to 3.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........23        12        27        25
Weather cov.....          S CHC     S CHC     CHANCE
Weather type....NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                    S CHC     CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         20        20        30
Temp............76        82        89        90
RH..............95        85        68        65
20 FT wind......SW 1G6    SW 1G6    E 5G7     E 7G10
Mix hgt (ft)....400       1400      3400      3700
Transport wind..SW 5      W 3       N 5       E 7
Dispersion idx..2         6         19        28
LVORI...........7         5         3         2

$$
Forecaster...Watson
Requested by...Miranda Cunningham
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2519777.0/MLB
.DELDT 08/13/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL miranda.cunningham@floridadep.gov