Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
241
FNUS72 KMLB 210926
FWSMLB
Spot Forecast for Triple N 34/35/38...FWC
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
526 AM EDT Wed May 21 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on May 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Good morning. High pressure will remain in control today before a
weak cold front moves through the local area on Thursday. Min RH
values will fall to 40-45 percent this afternoon, and 50-55
percent on Thursday afternoon as moisture increases along and
ahead of the front. West to southwest winds today will increase to
10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 in the afternoon as the pressure
gradient tightens. North to northwest winds at 10 mph or less on
Thursday will become east to southeast in the late afternoon and
evening as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland. While
conditions will be mostly dry today, there is a high (60 percent)
chance of rain and lightning storms at the burn site on Thursday.
Some storms may be strong to marginally severe on Thursday.
Primary storm threats will be strong winds gusts of 40-60 mph,
hail up to 1 inch in diameter, frequent lightning strikes and
locally heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches. Smoke dispersion values will
be excellent today as winds are elevated, and poor to fair on
Thursday.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 96.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......2600 ft AGL increasing to 7200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 17 mph.
Dispersion index....19 increasing to 34 late in the morning, then
increasing to 52 late in the morning increasing
to 75 early in the afternoon increasing to 102
decreasing to 83 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............5 decreasing to 1.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........29 21 17 14 15 16 16 21 21 23
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 0
Temp............74 77 83 86 89 92 94 94 95 95
RH..............93 85 70 61 54 49 44 43 42 42
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..6 6 8 9 10 10 10 12 12 12
20 FT wind gust.7 9 12 13 15 16 17 17 17 16
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.7 2.6 3.3 4.3 5.2 6.1 6.6 7.2 7.0
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.10 10 10 13 15 16 17 17 17 17
Dispersion idx..15 23 34 52 75 97 106 101 82 83
LVORI...........5 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 71.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......5700 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 17 mph.
Dispersion index....87 decreasing to 7.
LVORI...............2 increasing to 8.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........22 25 25 26 27 24 23 23 24 26 32 36
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............94 92 89 84 82 80 78 76 75 74 73 73
RH..............43 44 50 61 65 72 76 85 87 90 93 97
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..12 12 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6
20 FT wind gust.16 15 14 14 13 12 12 9 9 9 9 9
Mix hgt (kft)...5.7 3.4 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.17 17 14 14 14 12 12 12 12 10 10 8
Dispersion idx..87 68 9 9 8 7 5 5 5 5 4 4
LVORI...........1 1 2 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 8
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of showers
in the morning, then showers likely and chance
of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 7 mph shifting to the
north around 7 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty
and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL increasing to 4600 ft AGL late in
the morning, then increasing to 5600 ft AGL
late in the afternoon decreasing to 3400 ft AGL
late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 8 mph shifting to the east
around 7 mph late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....9 increasing to 25 late in the morning, then
increasing to 38 late in the morning decreasing
to 31 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............9 decreasing to 1.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........40 47 46 48 53 57 60 64 67 70 72 75
Weather cov..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 40 40 40 40 40 40 60 60 60 60
Temp............73 72 75 79 83 86 87 88 89 89 88 88
RH..............97 100 94 82 71 61 58 55 52 52 53 54
20 FT wind dir..W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW N N NE
20 FT wind spd..6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
20 FT wind gust.9 9 9 9 10 10 10 12 12 10 10 9
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 1.2 2.2 3.1 4.0 4.6 5.1 5.6 4.8 4.1 3.4
Transp wind dir.NW NW NW N N N N N N N NE E
Transp wind spd.8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
Dispersion idx..5 5 12 22 27 33 36 39 42 39 34 31
LVORI...........8 9 5 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
$$
Forecaster...Watson
Requested by...Steve Glass
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2514356.0/MLB
.DELDT 05/21/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL steve.glass@myfwc.com