504
FNUS72 KMLB 191314
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for JDSP Firefest 2024...Florida Park Service
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
914 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on October 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Windy and breezy conditions continue as Florida remains under the
influence of a deep and large high pressure system anchored over
the eastern U.S. Onshore winds 15-20 mph with gusts to around 30
mph today could lead to containment issues. Min RH 70-75 pct.
Northeast transport winds around 25 mph will result in Very Good
dispersion values. Isolated fast onshore moving sprinkles and
light showers will be possible, mainly in the afternoon, and a
brief heavy shower can`t be ruled out. Winds decrease to around 15
mph with gusts 25-30 mph in the late evening, then further
decrease to around 10 mph with gusts 20-25 mph late tonight.
Onshore winds a little weaker Sunday at around 15 mph with gusts
20-25 mph.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 mph.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL increasing to 4000 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 25 mph.
Dispersion index....Increasing to 61.
LVORI...............Decreasing to 2 late in the morning.

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........65  64  58  56  58  64  63
Weather cov.....                SCH
Weather type....                RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  20  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............80  81  81  80  80  80  79
RH..............69  69  67  69  69  67  69
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..17  17  16  16  16  17  16
20 FT wind gust.26  28  28  26  28  28  28
Mix hgt (kft)...3.5 3.9 3.8 4.0 3.9 2.8 2.8
Transp wind dir.E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.23  24  24  23  23  23  23
Dispersion idx..64  64  63  61  62  59  58
LVORI...........1   2   2   2   2   1   2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 73.
Max humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds around 15 mph late in the
evening decreasing to around 10 mph late tonight.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 20 to 25 mph decreasing to 15 to 20 mph.
Dispersion index....Decreasing to 23 early in the evening.
LVORI...............Increasing to 4 early in the morning.


TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........56  60  56  55  53  58  57  58  55  52  49  61
Weather cov.....                                            SCH
Weather type....                                            RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  20
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............78  78  76  76  76  76  75  75  75  75  75  74
RH..............71  69  71  71  71  71  79  79  79  79  79  84
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..17  16  14  13  12  10  10  10  9   9   10  10
20 FT wind gust.26  25  25  25  24  23  23  22  22  22  22  22
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E
Transp wind spd.23  23  22  23  21  21  20  20  20  20  17  17
Dispersion idx..53  46  25  25  24  24  22  23  23  22  21  21
LVORI...........2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......700-1800 ft AGL increasing to 3100-3600 ft AGL
in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 20 mph.
Dispersion index....Increasing to 51.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........55  44  43  44  59  59  59  63  65  60  53  48
Weather cov.....SCH     SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW      RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20  10  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............75  75  75  78  80  81  81  81  81  81  80  80
RH..............82  82  84  82  78  77  76  75  74  75  76  77
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..10  10  10  13  13  13  13  14  14  14  14  14
20 FT wind gust.22  22  21  22  22  22  22  22  22  23  23  24
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.7 0.9 1.8 2.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.5
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.20  18  18  18  20  20  20  18  18  18  20  20
Dispersion idx..21  21  33  46  52  55  53  50  48  47  47  47
LVORI...........3   3   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...Haley
Requested by...Rob Rossmanith
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2424451.0/MLB
.DELDT 10/19/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL robin.rossmanith@floridadep.gov