Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
367
FNUS72 KMLB 010816
FWSMLB
Spot Forecast for SFWMD Dupuis Unit 5...SFWMD
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
416 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on October 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Breezy conditions are forecast near the burn site today, with
north winds shifting to out of the northeast this afternoon around
10 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph possible. No minimum RH concerns.
Isolated to scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible
this afternoon, with lightning strikes and heavy downpours the
primary concerns with any storms that develop. Good afternoon
smoke dispersion values are forecast today. Overnight, winds are
forecast to remain out of the northeast near the burn site around
10 mph. There are no fog concerns at this time, though lingering
smoke from the fire could prompt visibility reductions near the
burn site.
Thursday, conditions become breezier and gustier out of the
east-northeast, with winds of 10 to 15 mph and gusts up to 25 mph
possible. Increasing rain and storm chances are also forecast.
Smoke dispersion values are forecast to remain good on Thursday.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) then becoming partly
sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........68 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 7 to 10 mph shifting to the
northeast around 10 mph late in the afternoon.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL increasing to 3900 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 9 to 13 mph.
Dispersion index....8 increasing to 41.
LVORI...............6 decreasing to 3.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........22 11 14 23 29 53 48 50 56 45
Weather cov..... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 20 30 40 40 40 40
Temp............74 76 81 84 85 85 86 85 86 84
RH..............96 92 81 76 73 71 70 71 68 72
20 FT wind dir..N N N N N N N NE NE NE
20 FT wind spd..7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10
20 FT wind gust.14 14 14 14 14 15 15 16 17 18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 1.2 1.8 2.5 3.3 3.6 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.1
Transp wind dir.N N N N N N N N N NE
Transp wind spd.9 12 12 10 9 9 10 12 12 13
Dispersion idx..8 18 26 32 32 33 39 41 40 41
LVORI...........6 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then
slight chance of showers overnight.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 73.
Max humidity........99 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 6 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 13 mph.
Dispersion index....34 decreasing to 4.
LVORI...............3 increasing to 8.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........45 41 26 22 28 25
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE S CHC S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).40 30 30 20 20 20
Temp............83 78 76 75 74 74
RH..............75 84 92 96 97 97
20 ft wind......NE 10 NE 7 NE 6 NE 6 NE 6 N 6
20 ft wind gust.17 15 15 14 13 14
Mix hgt (ft)....2300 600 400 500 400 400
Transport wind..NE 13 NE 13 NE 9 NE 12 NE 8 N 8
Dispersion idx..34 9 5 6 4 5
LVORI...........3 5 6 7 7 8
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
showers early in the morning, then chance of
showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
early in the morning. Showers likely and chance
of thunderstorms early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 7 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL increasing to 2800 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 16 mph shifting to the east 16
to 18 mph in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....5 increasing to 40.
LVORI...............8 decreasing to 3.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........31 24 27 42 50 55
Weather cov.....S CHC LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).20 60 60 60 70 70
Temp............74 74 79 82 83 81
RH..............97 97 85 79 76 77
20 ft wind......N 7 NE 8 NE 12 NE 13 E 14 NE 15
20 ft wind gust.14 14 16 20 23 25
Mix hgt (ft)....400 500 1400 2200 2800 2500
Transport wind..NE 8 N 9 NE 14 NE 16 E 18 E 17
Dispersion idx..5 7 28 40 39 37
LVORI...........8 7 4 3 3 3
$$
Forecaster...Tollefsen
Requested by...James Schuette
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2522769.0/MLB
.DELDT 10/01/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jschuett@sfwmd.gov