494
FNUS72 KMLB 261415
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for Kissimmee Prairie...Florida Park Service
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1015 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on June 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

The east coast sea breeze is forecast to develop and push inland,
leading to prevailing easterly winds and increasing rain and
storm chances near the burn site this afternoon, particularly
after 1 PM. Any storms that develop may be capable of producing
frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts 40 to 50 mph, small hail,
and heavy downpours. There is a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe
weather, with a 5% chance for wind gusts up to 60 mph. Activity is
anticipated to diminish after 5 PM, with drier conditions
overnight. Rain and storm chances return once again into Friday,
with another Marginal Risk forecast near the burn site. There are
no minimum RH or wind concerns outside of convection, with
generally good smoke dispersion values forecast near the site each
day. Winds become more southerly on Friday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
                    Showers and thunderstorms likely late in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 12 mph.
Dispersion index....18 increasing to 46.
LVORI...............3 decreasing to 1.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........12  18  26  39  51  55  53  45
Weather cov.....        CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........        CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).0   10  30  40  60  70  60  70
Temp............84  87  88  89  90  88  90  87
RH..............70  63  61  59  58  59  56  61
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..5   6   7   8   8   9   8   8
20 FT wind gust.8   10  13  15  15  16  16  16
Mix hgt (kft)...3.0 3.9 4.4 4.6 4.5 3.4 3.1 3.5
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.5   6   8   8   8   12  10  9
Dispersion idx..18  29  41  44  45  46  43  43
LVORI...........3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely early in the evening, then
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms early in
                    the evening. Slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms late in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 69.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 8 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 10 mph shifting to the south 3
                    to 9 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Dispersion index....39 decreasing to 2.
LVORI...............2 increasing to 10.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........43     40     45     41     37     31
Weather cov.....LIKELY CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........LIKELY CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).60     30     10     10     10     10
Temp............85     80     77     73     72     71
RH..............65     77     85     97     97     97
20 ft wind......E 8    SE 6   S 3    S 2    S 2    S 2
20 ft wind gust.14     12     9      6      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....3100   700    500    400    400    400
Transport wind..SE 10  SE 8   S 9    S 5    S 5    S 5
Dispersion idx..39     4      4      3      2      2
LVORI...........2      4      6      8      9      10

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Chance of showers
                    early in the morning. Chance of thunderstorms
                    late in the morning, then showers and
                    thunderstorms likely late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 93.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......1600 ft AGL increasing to 5700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 8 mph.
Dispersion index....2 increasing to 48.
LVORI...............10 decreasing to 1.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........22     12     19     30     42     54
Weather cov.....       CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                     CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).10     40     40     40     70     70
Temp............70     74     84     89     91     90
RH..............100    100    72     61     58     58
20 ft wind......S 2    S 2    S 5    SW 7   S 7    S 6
20 ft wind gust.5      6      8      12     14     13
Mix hgt (ft)....400    600    2700   4400   5700   4500
Transport wind..S 3    S 6    SW 6   SW 6   SW 7   SW 8
Dispersion idx..2      4      20     32     48     45
LVORI...........10     9      3      1      1      1

$$
Forecaster...Tollefsen
Requested by...Parks Small
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2516730.0/MLB
.DELDT 06/26/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL parks.small@floridaDEP.gov