Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
808
FNUS72 KMLB 110800
FWSMLB
Spot Forecast for JDSP E12 13...Florida Park Service
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
400 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on May 11.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Good morning. A weak front will approach the local area today,
pushing through the burn site Tuesday. Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
today will back to the southeast and increase to 10-15 mph this
afternoon with the east coast sea breeze formation. Winds will
then become light and veer south to southwest tonight before
veering north to northeast Tuesday behind the front.
Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms will form each
afternoon and early evening along the sea breeze and boundary
collisions through mid-week. Some storms could be strong to
marginally severe today as this activity pushes back towards the
coast and offshore. Storm threats include frequent lightning
strikes, strong gusty winds, hail to coin-size, and torrential
downpours. A tornado can not be ruled. There remains a threat for
potential new "fire- starts" from lightning strikes.
Today will be warm and humid once again, with peak heat indices
between 99-103 degrees at the burn site. Temperatures become more
seasonable on Tuesday behind the front. Smoke dispersion values
will be fair both today and Tuesday.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 8 mph in
the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL increasing to 4100 ft AGL late in
the morning, then decreasing to 1900 ft AGL
late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 12 mph.
Dispersion index....21 increasing to 34 in the late morning and
early afternoon, then decreasing to 26 late in
the afternoon.
LVORI...............3 decreasing to 2 in the afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........66 60 70 71 67 67 72 64 69
Weather cov..... CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 10 30 30 30 40
Temp............85 86 89 90 91 90 91 89 88
RH..............77 75 66 64 62 62 60 64 63
20 FT wind dir..S S S S SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..3 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 8
20 FT wind gust.9 10 10 10 12 13 14 13 13
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 2.9 4.0 4.1 3.7 3.7 2.7 2.2 1.9
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S SE S
Transp wind spd.9 10 9 8 8 8 9 9 12
Dispersion idx..21 38 35 30 29 32 28 24 25
LVORI...........3 3 3 1 2 1 2 2 2
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Showers likely
and chance of thunderstorms in the evening,
then slight chance of showers overnight.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 75.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph early in the evening
becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 12 mph shifting to the west 6 to 7
mph late in the evening, then shifting to the
northwest around 6 mph overnight shifting to
the south 5 to 6 mph overnight shifting to the
southwest around 5 mph.
Dispersion index....19 decreasing to 3 early in the evening.
LVORI...............4 increasing to 6 in the late evening and
overnight.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........75 84 84 70 61 74 54 63 73 73 80 79
Weather cov.....CHC LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).50 60 40 40 30 30 20 10 10 10 10 10
Temp............86 83 82 80 79 78 77 77 76 76 76 75
RH..............68 77 77 82 82 85 88 88 87 87 87 87
20 FT wind dir..SE S S S S S SW S S SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..7 5 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
20 FT wind gust.13 12 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 6
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.3 1.1 1.2
Transp wind dir.S S SW S W NW W NW SE S S SW
Transp wind spd.12 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 6 5
Dispersion idx..23 14 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 2
LVORI...........3 4 4 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Showers likely
and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northeast 6 to 8 mph in
the afternoon, then increasing to around 8 mph
late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1600 ft AGL increasing to 3100 ft AGL late in
the morning.
Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 5 mph shifting to the west
around 5 mph late in the morning, then shifting
to the northeast 5 to 13 mph late in the
morning.
Dispersion index....6 increasing to 34.
LVORI...............6 decreasing to 3.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........79 85 86 74 74 76 77 83 86 86 86 71
Weather cov..... CHC LKY LKY CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 0 10 10 10 10 30 60 70 50 40
Temp............75 75 77 80 83 84 85 85 85 86 84 83
RH..............87 90 88 85 77 74 72 72 70 65 70 72
20 FT wind dir..SW W W W NW NW N NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT wind spd..1 1 2 2 2 3 6 7 8 8 8 8
20 FT wind gust.6 5 6 6 7 7 9 10 12 13 14 14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 1.3 1.1 1.6 2.4 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.1
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW W NE N NE NE N N NE
Transp wind spd.3 5 5 5 5 5 6 8 9 12 12 13
Dispersion idx..2 2 7 7 10 13 18 24 28 35 34 32
LVORI...........6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 3
$$
Forecaster...Watson
Requested by...Rob Rossmanith
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2613288.0/MLB
.DELDT 05/11/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL robin.rossmanith@floridadep.gov