398
FNUS72 KMLB 160811
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for Three Lakes - Williams Big Block...FWC
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
411 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on July 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Light and variable winds this morning will pick up out of the
west at 5 to 10 mph this afternoon. Moisture is anticipated to
increase today, with minimum RH values remaining well above
critical thresholds near the burn site. Generally good afternoon
smoke dispersion values will decrease to fair late in the afternoon.
Increasing coverage of showers and storms are forecast through
this afternoon, primarily after 2 PM. Frequent lightning strikes,
wind gusts up to 55 mph, and heavy downpours are all possible with
any storms that develop. Activity will diminish into the late
evening and overnight hours.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
                    Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 93.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL increasing to 4800 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon, then decreasing to
                    2000 ft AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 12 mph.
Dispersion index....7 increasing to 55, then decreasing to 32.
LVORI...............5 decreasing to 1.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........1   1   6   19  30  37  46  40  53  66
Weather cov.....                SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   20  30  50  50  50  50
Temp............77  80  86  88  90  91  91  91  92  89
RH..............90  82  70  66  60  58  58  57  54  59
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW
20 FT wind spd..5   6   7   8   8   8   9   8   8   7
20 FT wind gust.8   9   12  13  14  15  16  16  16  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 1.7 2.9 3.8 4.3 4.8 4.5 4.4 3.1 2.0
Transp wind dir.W   NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW
Transp wind spd.9   12  10  10  9   10  10  10  10  12
Dispersion idx..7   24  38  47  47  55  55  54  44  32
LVORI...........5   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
                    then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 74.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 3 to 10 mph decreasing to 5 to 6 mph after
                    3 am.
Dispersion index....20 decreasing to 2.
LVORI...............2 increasing to 6.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........71     73     50     30     35     22
Weather cov.....CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).40     20     10     0      0      0
Temp............88     82     79     77     76     76
RH..............61     77     82     88     90     92
20 ft wind......NW 6   NE 3   SW 1   SW 1   SW 2   SW 2
20 ft wind gust.13     6      3      3      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....1400   600    400    400    400    400
Transport wind..NW 10  N 6    W 3    W 6    W 6    W 5
Dispersion idx..20     3      2      2      3      2
LVORI...........2      4      5      6      6      6

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the morning.
                    Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 6 mph late in
                    the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the morning.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL increasing to 4300 ft AGL late in
                    the morning.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 7 mph.
Dispersion index....2 increasing to 31, then decreasing to 19.
LVORI...............8 decreasing to 2.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........21     24     23     30     50     64
Weather cov.....                     CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                     CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      10     10     30     50     40
Temp............75     77     85     88     90     90
RH..............94     96     72     66     62     62
20 ft wind......SW 3   SW 3   W 3    W 6    W 6    W 5
20 ft wind gust.5      6      7      9      10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....400    500    2100   3500   4300   3100
Transport wind..W 6    W 5    W 6    W 6    W 7    W 6
Dispersion idx..2      3      15     26     31     19
LVORI...........8      7      3      3      2      2

$$
Forecaster...Tollefsen
Requested by...Steve Glass
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2617425.0/MLB
.DELDT 07/16/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL steve.glass@myfwc.com