430
FNUS72 KMLB 280722
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for Hal Scott Unit 2 Rx burn...St Johns River Water Management District
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
322 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on July 28.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

Southwesterly flow around 10 mph this afternoon increases to 15 mph,
with gusts to 20 mph, on Wednesday. Scattered showers and storms will
be possible both days, but mainly after 2 PM today. Drier conditions
then prevail overnight, as showers and storms drift offshore in the
evenings. A few strong storms will be possible, with wind gusts up to
55 mph, especially Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall from slow-moving
cells and lightning strikes will also be threats. No min RH concerns,
with generally good dispersion. Hot and humid conditions will produce
heat indices up to 109 degrees. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 AM
to 7 PM today and will likely be needed again Wednesday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 96.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL increasing to 4900 ft AGL late in
                    the morning.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 10 mph.
Dispersion index....8 increasing to 46.
LVORI...............6 decreasing to 1.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........50  44  47  44  43  47  49  50
Weather cov.....            SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........            SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  20  30  30  40  40
Temp............86  88  91  93  93  94  94  91
RH..............75  72  64  58  58  54  53  58
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..6   7   7   7   8   9   10  10
20 FT wind gust.8   9   10  12  13  14  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 3.0 3.8 4.8 4.9 4.2 3.3 3.2
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   SW  SW  W   W   W
Transp wind spd.7   7   8   8   9   9   10  10
Dispersion idx..19  26  36  44  50  46  42  41
LVORI...........3   3   2   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 78.
Max humidity........94 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 8 to 10 mph early in the evening.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....West around 12 mph shifting to the southwest 9
                    to 12 mph early in the evening.
Dispersion index....43 decreasing to 8.
LVORI...............2 increasing to 5.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........54     48     22     16     27     28
Weather cov.....CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).40     10     0      0      0      0
Temp............91     85     82     80     79     79
RH..............58     72     77     85     88     88
20 ft wind......W 10   S 9    SW 8   SW 9   SW 9   SW 9
20 ft wind gust.14     12     12     12     13     14
Mix hgt (ft)....3000   700    500    500    500    500
Transport wind..W 12   SW 10  W 9    W 10   W 10   W 12
Dispersion idx..43     9      6      7      7      8
LVORI...........1      3      4      4      5      5

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the morning.
                    Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 95.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 16 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL increasing to 4900 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and early afternoon, then
                    decreasing to 2900 ft AGL late in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 17 mph.
Dispersion index....7 increasing to 65 in the afternoon.
LVORI...............6 decreasing to 1.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........33        30        38        66
Weather cov.....          S CHC     S CHC     CHANCE
Weather type....NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                    S CHC     CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).10        20        20        30
Temp............78        83        91        93
RH..............91        82        64        58
20 FT wind......SW 10G15  SW 13G18  SW 14G21  SW 16G23
Mix hgt (ft)....400       2300      4500      3100
Transport wind..W 10      W 16      W 16      SW 16
Dispersion idx..7         42        63        39
LVORI...........5         3         1         1

$$
Forecaster...Wishard
Requested by...Graham Williams
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2618440.0/MLB
.DELDT 07/28/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL gwilliams@sjrwmd.com