Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
251
FNUS72 KMLB 031341
FWSMLB
Spot Forecast for Hilochee WMA prescribed burn...FWC
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
941 AM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on June 03.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
High rain chances, especially in the afternoon, as a residual
frontal boundary and associated moisture lifts into Central
Florida. Confidence where and when showers and storms will develop
is low due to weak forcing near the boundary, but generally
expect chances to gradually increase from 20 pct at 9 AM to 60 pct
by 2 PM, and remaining around 60 pct through 8 PM. That said, decent
agreement from models for showers and storms capable of cloud to
ground lightning and heavy rainfall near the burn site by 1PM to
2 PM, as a weak and diffuse east coast sea breeze arrives.
Easterly winds around 5-10 mph increase to around 10 mph with the
weak see breeze, then ease to 5-10 mph overnight, becoming
southeast around 10 mph Wednesday. Dispersion values Fair to
Generally Good by the late morning and afternoon. Min RH 60-70
pct.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms late in the morning.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the
morning, then showers and thunderstorms likely
late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 7 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms in the late morning
and afternoon.
Mixing height.......1800-3100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 10 to 15 mph.
Dispersion index....Increasing to 37 late in the morning.
LVORI...............4 to 3.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........69 63 60 64 75 80 78 75 73
Weather cov..... SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).10 20 30 30 50 70 70 60 60
Temp............76 79 80 82 83 83 83 84 83
RH..............87 82 79 74 74 74 74 72 74
20 FT wind dir..E E E E E E E E E
20 FT wind spd..7 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10
20 FT wind gust.12 12 14 16 17 17 18 18 18
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 2.5 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.5
Transp wind dir.SE SE E SE E E E E E
Transp wind spd.9 9 10 10 12 12 14 15 14
Dispersion idx..21 29 34 35 35 32 36 41 35
LVORI...........4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Showers and
thunderstorms likely in the evening, then
chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 71.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 12 to 16 mph.
Dispersion index....33 decreasing to 13 early in the evening.
LVORI...............4 increasing to 8.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........82 82 85 79 70 76 68 59 72 63 71 65
Weather cov.....LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).70 50 50 50 40 30 20 20 20 30 30 40
Temp............82 80 77 75 75 75 74 74 73 73 73 72
RH..............74 79 85 90 94 90 93 93 97 97 97 100
20 FT wind dir..E E E E E E E E E E E E
20 FT wind spd..10 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6
20 FT wind gust.17 16 15 14 13 13 12 10 10 10 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5
Transp wind dir.E E E E E E E E E E SE SE
Transp wind spd.14 16 16 16 15 14 14 16 14 13 12 12
Dispersion idx..33 32 17 14 13 12 10 9 8 8 8 8
LVORI...........3 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 8
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the morning,
then showers with thunderstorms likely early in
the morning.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 7 to 10 mph shifting to the
south around 10 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 15 mph shifting to the south 15
to 20 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Dispersion index....8 increasing 32 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............6 decreasing to 4 in the late morning and
afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........80 67 62 76 81 86 89 92 95 92 89 86
Weather cov.....CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).40 40 80 80 80 80 80 80 90 90 90 90
Temp............73 73 74 75 77 79 80 80 81 81 81 81
RH..............97 97 97 97 94 88 85 88 84 84 84 84
20 FT wind dir..E E SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..7 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
20 FT wind gust.12 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 18 18 18 17
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.4
Transp wind dir.SE SE SE S S S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.13 10 13 17 21 22 21 18 16 15 14 13
Dispersion idx..8 8 23 32 40 45 45 39 35 31 28 25
LVORI...........6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
$$
Forecaster...Haley
Requested by...Loghan Lomneck
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2515274.0/MLB
.DELDT 06/03/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Loghan.Lomneck@myfwc.com