400
FNUS72 KMLB 051608
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for Spur Unit RX...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1108 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EST on February 06.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure extending over Florida from the Atlantic retreats
east a bit, causing the western tail of the ridge axis to shift
over Central Florida Thursday. Light and variable winds early
Thursday morning become SW-SSW at 5-10 mph by noon. The east and
west coast sea breezes are expected to develop in the early
afternoon, colliding near the burn site late in the evening,
around 7-8 PM. Winds could become shifty to westerly or easterly
a couple hours prior to the collision depending on timing of the
sea breezes. A few showers can`t be ruled out with the sea
breeze collision. Patchy to areas of fog capable of becoming
dense is possible Thursday morning, and again late Thursday into
Friday morning.

Min RH 45-50 pct. Transport winds SSW-SW at 5-10 mph, resulting in
Poor to Fair dispersion values.

HYSPLIT is currently unavailable, and will be sent Thursday
morning.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Patchy fog late in the
                    morning.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......1100-1500 ft AGL increasing to 4900-5200 ft AGL
in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 10 mph.
Dispersion index....Around 15 increasing to around 40 late in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............4 decreasing to 2 in the afternoon.

TIME (EST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........16  17  15  13  11  10  10  9   9
Weather cov.....PTY
Weather type....FOG
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............69  73  77  79  81  82  82  83  81
RH..............83  73  64  59  54  51  49  46  50
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   6   7   7   7   7   7   6   5
20 FT wind gust.8   9   9   10  10  9   8   7   6
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.4 4.7 4.9 5.2 3.6
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.9   9   9   8   8   8   7   7   6
Dispersion idx..13  17  28  33  40  42  38  40  25
LVORI...........4   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   2

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 60.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......200-400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around mph shifting to the north
                    early in the morning.
Dispersion index....12 decreasing to 3.
LVORI...............3 increasing to 9.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........10  10  10  10  10  11  13  14  17  19  22  28
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............78  76  74  71  69  67  66  64  63  62  61  61
RH..............55  60  65  72  78  83  88  93  95  98  100 100
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   W   NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..5   3   3   3   3   2   2   1   1   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.6   5       5   5   3       2   2           3
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N
Transp wind spd.5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   6
Dispersion idx..12  2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
LVORI...........2   3   3   3   4   5   6   6   6   7   8   9

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Variable at around 5 mph.
Mixing height.......400-900 ft AGL increasing to 4400-4800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Variable at around 5 mph
Dispersion index....Increasing to around 25.
LVORI...............10 decreasing to 2.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........34  40  34  29  23  18  14  9   7   4   2   2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............60  60  63  66  69  73  76  80  80  81  81  78
RH..............100 100 93  87  81  71  62  54  52  51  49  54
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NE
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.3           3   3   5   5   6   6   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.2 2.0 2.8 3.6 4.0 4.4 4.8 3.3
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   NE  E   SE  S   SW  W   NW  N
Transp wind spd.6   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5
Dispersion idx..2   2   4   7   9   14  20  25  27  24  25  19
LVORI...........10  10  6   5   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2

$$
Forecaster...Haley
Requested by...Adam Peterson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2502326.0/MLB
.DELDT 02/05/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL apeterson@tnc.org