Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
929
FNUS72 KMLB 210845
FWSMLB
Spot Forecast for JDSP F4...Florida Park Service
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
445 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on August 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Offshore flow will develop today, with westerly winds increasing to
around 5-10 mph this morning and continuing into the afternoon. The
east coast sea breeze will be able to develop, but the low level
offshore winds may keep it just east of the burn site. If the sea
breeze can move inland toward the I-95 corridor, expect winds to
switch to the east-southeast to around 8-10 mph, mainly after 3 PM.
Higher coverage of showers and storms are also forecast today,
especially with boundary collisions toward the coast, with rain
chances increasing up to 60 percent later in the afternoon. Storms
will be capable of producing strong and erratic wind gusts,
frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall.
It will be hot and humid today, with a high near 95 degrees at the
burn site, and a peak heat index around 106 degrees. No Min RH
concerns, with Very Good dispersion values forecast.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming partly
sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon, then showers
and thunderstorms likely late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 95.
Min humidity........52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 8 mph in the
late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL increasing to 5400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 15 mph.
Dispersion index....5 increasing to 63 late in the morning
increasing to 80 in the afternoon.
LVORI...............7 decreasing to 1.
TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........4 3 1 1 5 14 30 30 36 49 55
Weather cov..... SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).0 10 10 10 10 10 20 30 50 50 60
Temp............77 78 83 88 90 92 93 94 93 93 91
RH..............94 92 83 70 64 58 55 52 55 54 57
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..3 3 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 7
20 FT wind gust.10 10 10 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.9 4.5 5.0 5.4 4.8 4.5 3.9
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.9 10 10 12 14 14 15 15 15 15 14
Dispersion idx..4 6 20 39 63 72 80 80 74 69 60
LVORI...........7 6 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
mostly clear (15-25 percent). Showers and
thunderstorms likely early in the evening, then
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late
in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 76.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 7 mph early in the evening
becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL early in
the evening.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 13 mph.
Dispersion index....47 decreasing to 4.
LVORI...............2 increasing to 7.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........54 39 30 14 5 6
Weather cov.....LIKELY CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........LIKELY CHANCE S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).60 30 20 10 10 10
Temp............90 85 83 80 79 77
RH..............61 70 77 85 88 94
20 ft wind......W 7 SW 5 SW 2 SW 2 SW 2 SW 2
20 ft wind gust.13 10 8 8 9 9
Mix hgt (ft)....3400 900 400 400 400 400
Transport wind..W 13 NW 7 W 5 W 8 W 7 W 7
Dispersion idx..47 4 3 4 4 4
LVORI...........1 3 4 5 6 7
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent) then becoming partly
sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms early in the morning. Showers
and thunderstorms likely late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 95.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south around 6 mph. Gusty
and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
early in the morning.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL increasing to 5700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 12 mph.
Dispersion index....5 increasing to 20 late in the morning, then
increasing to 37 late in the morning increasing
to 60 late in the morning increasing to 68
decreasing to 50 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............8 decreasing to 1.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........4 30 30 55
Weather cov..... S CHC S CHC LIKELY
Weather type....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ S CHC S CHC LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).0 20 20 70
Temp............77 83 90 93
RH..............94 83 63 57
20 FT wind......SW 2G9 W 3G9 W 6G9 SW 6G12
Mix hgt (ft)....400 1700 4700 5100
Transport wind..W 7 W 9 W 12 W 12
Dispersion idx..4 20 63 64
LVORI...........7 4 1 1
$$
Forecaster...Weitlich
Requested by...Miranda Cunningham
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2520330.0/MLB
.DELDT 08/21/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL miranda.cunningham@floridadep.gov