249
FNUS72 KMLB 060853
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for Micco 65112...SJRWD
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
453 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on August 06.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Winds light and variable until the east coast sea breeze develops
and reaches the burn site around 2 PM, shifting winds ENE at 5-10
mph. There is a 20-40% chance for a lightning storm to for on the
sea breeze near the burn site around this time, and a 40% chance
of storms continues the rest of the evening for possible pushback
to the coast. No min RH concerns. Afternoon smoke dispersion will
be Fair due to light transport winds. Rain chances Thursday
increase to 30-60%, otherwise identical conditions.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers late in the morning. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the morning, then chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northeast 5 to 10 mph late
                    in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......400-1700 ft AGL increasing to 2800-3400 ft AGL
in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Light winds becoming northeast 5 to 10 mph late
in the morning.
Dispersion index....Increasing to 32.
LVORI...............8 decreasing to 3.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........31  31  30  35  37  43  45  43  40  43
Weather cov.....        SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........            SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  20  20  30  40  40  40  40  40
Temp............78  83  87  89  90  91  90  90  90  89
RH..............97  82  72  68  64  64  66  66  64  66
20 FT wind dir..N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..2   2   3   5   6   8   9   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   6   8   9   10  12  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 1.7 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.4 2.8 2.7 2.5
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.3   3   3   5   6   8   9   9   9   10
Dispersion idx..3   7   10  16  23  30  33  31  30  31
LVORI...........7   4   3   3   3   2   2   3   2   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
                    then slight chance of thunderstorms early in
                    the evening. Slight chance of showers early in
                    the evening.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 76.
Max humidity........94 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 10 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable by
midnight.
Dispersion index....Decreasing to 4 early in the evening.
LVORI...............Increasing to 7.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........42        47        45        42
Weather cov.....CHANCE    S CHC     S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE    S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).40        20        20        10
Temp............87        82        81        78
RH..............70        79        82        91
20 FT wind......E 8G10    E 5G8     SE 3G6    SW 2G5
Mix hgt (ft)....2200      400       400       400
Transport wind..E 10      E 8       SE 6      SW 5
Dispersion idx..29        5         3         2
LVORI...........3         4         5         7

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the morning, then showers
                    and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 10 mph late in
                    the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL increasing to 2100-3700 ft AGL late
in the morning.
Transport winds.....Light and variable becoming east 5 to 10 mph in
the late morning and early afternoon.
Dispersion index....Increasing to 36.
LVORI...............7 decreasing to 3.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........38           39           48
Weather cov.....S CHC        CHANCE       LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR       RNSHWR       RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                          LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).20           30           60
Temp............77           85           90
RH..............90           75           64
20 FT wind......W 2G5        NE 3G7       E 9G14
Mix hgt (ft)....400          2100         3700
Transport wind..NW 5         NE 5         E 9
Dispersion idx..2            13           40
LVORI...........7            4            2

$$
Forecaster...Haley
Requested by...Chris Ohara
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2519369.0/MLB
.DELDT 08/06/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL cohara@sjrwmd.com