Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
612
FNUS72 KMLB 151245
FWSMLB
Spot Forecast for Lake Russell...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
Issued by National Weather Service San Juan PR
845 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on July 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Light and variable winds this morning will pick up out of the
west to northwest around 10 mph as the west coast sea breeze moves
across the area. No minimum RH concerns today, with afternoon
smoke dispersion values forecast to be very good near the burn
site. There is a 20% chance of showers and storms near the burn
site, with the best chances primarily after 2 PM. Frequent
lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 55 mph, and heavy downpours
will be possible with any storms. Mostly dry overnight with a
return of light and variable winds. Similar conditions are
forecast on Thursday, with rain and storm chances increasing to
40%.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms late in the
afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 95.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 8 mph late in
the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL increasing to 5600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 3 to 9 mph increasing to 9 to 12 mph late
in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....7 increasing to 61.
LVORI...............9 decreasing to 1.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........8 25 14 12 13 30 30 38 44
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 10 10 20 20 20 30
Temp............80 85 87 89 92 93 93 94 93
RH..............82 70 68 61 54 52 51 49 49
20 FT wind dir..SW W W W W NW W W W
20 FT wind spd..2 3 5 6 6 7 7 7 8
20 FT wind gust.3 6 8 10 13 14 15 15 16
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.9 2.8 4.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 4.6 4.4
Transp wind dir.SW W W W W NW NW W W
Transp wind spd.5 5 6 8 9 9 10 12 12
Dispersion idx..6 11 21 38 57 59 65 61 60
LVORI...........5 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent) then becoming
mostly clear (5-15 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 74.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 7 mph in the evening becoming
light, then becoming west around 5 mph early in
the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL early in
the evening.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 12 mph.
Dispersion index....47 decreasing to 4.
LVORI...............2 increasing to 6.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........41 31 30 20 18 23 22 13 11 5 8 13
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).20 20 20 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............91 89 84 82 80 79 78 77 77 76 76 76
RH..............52 57 67 72 77 79 82 85 85 87 87 87
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..7 6 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 5
20 FT wind gust.15 13 12 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7
Mix hgt (kft)...3.3 1.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.12 12 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7
Dispersion idx..47 24 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3
LVORI...........1 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the
afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 7 mph early in
the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL increasing to 4500 ft AGL late in
the morning, then increasing to 5900 ft AGL
early in the afternoon decreasing to 2800 ft
AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 12 mph.
Dispersion index....4 increasing to 18 late in the morning, then
increasing to 38 late in the morning increasing
to 58 early in the afternoon decreasing to 22
increasing to 38 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............6 increasing to 8 early in the morning, then
decreasing to 6 early in the morning decreasing
to 3 late in the morning decreasing to 2.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........15 18 17 27 22 23 36 50 58 41 33 45
Weather cov..... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 10 10 20 30 40 40 30 30
Temp............75 74 78 81 86 88 90 91 92 92 93 92
RH..............94 100 91 82 70 66 60 56 54 54 52 54
20 FT wind dir..W W W W NW NW NW W W W NW W
20 FT wind spd..3 3 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
20 FT wind gust.7 7 7 8 10 12 13 14 15 14 15 15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.5 1.5 2.8 3.7 4.5 5.3 5.9 5.6 1.9 2.8
Transp wind dir.W W W W NW NW W W W W W NW
Transp wind spd.7 6 7 9 9 9 8 9 10 9 9 12
Dispersion idx..3 3 4 18 34 39 42 54 62 58 22 38
LVORI...........6 8 6 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 1
$$
Forecaster...Sedlock
Requested by...Adam Peterson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2617398.0/MLB
.DELDT 07/15/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL apeterson@tnc.org