014
FXUS62 KMLB 111253
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
853 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

- Bright Florida sunshine and breezy today as much drier air
  returns. Fire weather conditions become near-critical early this
  afternoon.

- Chilly tonight, but a quick warming trend gets underway for the
  rest of the week. By Saturday and Sunday, widespread mid/upper
  80s are forecast.

- The next chance (30-40%) for showers and isolated lightning
  storms holds off until late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 853 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

A post frontal airmass continues to advect across central Florida
this morning. Dry conditions are forecast with no rain chances
today. Northwest winds around 10-15 mph through the morning will
gradually subside into mid afternoon. High temperatures will be
near to just below normal, ranging the mid 70s. The current
forecast remains on track.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

              ----------Synoptic Overview----------

The upper low that was responsible for Monday`s gusty winds and a
tornado in Seminole Co. has moved offshore of the Carolinas this
morning.  Split flow persists across North America. The polar jet
remains situated along the Canadian border while the subtropical jet
extends from Baja California Sur to the Florida Straits. H5 heights
are beginning to rise over Florida as broad ridging emerges from
Texas into the Gulf.

Across the Eastern U.S., the split-flow pattern continues for the
next 2-3 days. The ridge to our west should move overhead by
Wednesday, followed closely by a weak shortwave passing through the
Southeast on Thursday. As surface high pressure takes control,
proximity soundings indicate substantial dry air in the column over
the next couple days. Only modest moisture return is expected ahead
of the feature on Thursday.

Ensemble guidance remains tightly clustered on the forecast through
the weekend. An impressive 160 KT jet streak currently over the N
Pacific is projected to carve out a deep longwave trough over the
West by Thursday night before quickly progressing into the Plains.
In response, classic lee cyclogenesis spawns a sub-980 mb low
pressure system across Kansas and Nebraska on Friday. Downstream
ridging overtakes the Gulf and Southeast U.S. ahead of this
powerful March storm system from Friday through early Sunday. High
pressure nudges into the Atlantic, providing warm SE to S
boundary-layer flow. NAEFS 5 KFT temperatures approach the 90th
percentile of climatology by Sunday.

As the mid-latitude disturbance pushes eastward this weekend,
trailing jet stream energy across the Mid-South should force a
weakening cold front toward Florida either late Sunday or Monday.
Ensemble members support slightly above-normal moisture values
returning as the front passes through the state.  Guidance then
supports additional energy crashing ashore the West Coast next week,
all but assuring any cooler weather behind this front will be short-
lived as H5 heights soar back toward 588+ dam by Wed., March 19.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Tonight...

Look for bright sunshine today as high pressure noses in. Still a
bit of a pressure gradient, so NW winds of 10-15 mph with gusts to
around 20 mph are still expected - at least through mid-afternoon. A
punch of dry, continental air promises fire-sensitive conditions
this afternoon; see the fire weather discussion below for more
information.

Highs bounce into the 70s this afternoon, perhaps a couple of
notches below normal. The dry air and lessening wind will deliver
a chilly overnight with mid/upper 40s for all but the Orlando heat
island and immediate coast where low 50s hang on.

Wednesday - Saturday...

Quiet weather dominates. A weak disturbance to our north on Thursday
may be noticed with passing clouds and perhaps a sprinkle over our
northern communities. High temps reach the upper 70s to low 80s
through Friday before jumping into the mid/upper 80s on Saturday. SE
winds become gusty Saturday afternoon, 15-20 mph.

Sunday - Monday...

Timing differences are evident in the guidance suite as a cold front
approaches the state. A majority of members support a slower
scenario, with only slight rain chances Sunday followed by 30-50%
shower coverage Sunday night into Monday. Instability looks
sufficient for at least a low (20%) lightning potential.

10/12Z EPS EFI indicates unusually strong wind speeds on Sunday.
Statistical guidance shows south winds gusting 20-25 mph in the
afternoon. Deep mixing and compressional effects may combine forces
to threaten Central Florida`s warmest day so far this year, which
is currently Feb 13th when many spots reached the upper 80s.
Widespread upper 80s are forecast with a few spots closing in on
90F over the interior. We used a blend of MOS and NBM to bump
highs upward a couple of degrees. This would constitute a Minor
HeatRisk, which accounts for abnormally warm temperatures and how
these conditions can affect those susceptible to the heat. Monday
should turn slightly cooler, in the 70s to near 80F.

Extended Forecast...

Predominantly, we see extended periods of quiet weather as we move
deeper into March. As mentioned above, any subtle cool-down behind
the front on Monday looks short-lived as the grand ensemble supports
a sprawling ridge expanding from the Gulf and over Florida.
Another front may approach the state late next week, but the
primary storm track for impactful weather is likely to remain well
north of here. The CPC week 2 forecast favors above-normal
temperatures and near-to-below-normal rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Today - Wednesday... Dangerous boating conditions in the Gulf Stream
today with seas up to 12 FT. High pressure is approaching, so
northwest winds slowly relax, first decreasing nearshore to 10-15
KT this afternoon with seas subsiding to 3-5 FT. Well offshore,
winds settle below 20 KT by late this afternoon. Seas continue to
subside toward 3-6 FT across all of the local Atlantic by daybreak
Wednesday as winds decrease to NW 8-12 KT. By Wednesday
afternoon, SE winds 5-10 KT with a sea breeze near the coast and
seas 3-5 FT. Intracoastal boating conditions improve greatly by
tomorrow.

Thursday - Saturday... SE winds increase to 10-15 KT on Thursday as
a disturbance passes to our north. Briefly lighter SE winds on
Friday quickly freshen to 15-22 KT by Saturday. Seas 2-4 FT through
Friday, increasing up to 5 FT offshore on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

VFR conditions will continue today into tonight, with much drier
airmass keeping skies clear across the region. NW winds 10-15
knots will continue to be gusty through at least this morning and
early afternoon before diminishing later in the day into tonight
as high pressure continues to build in from the west.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Today... Near-critical fire weather conditions early this afternoon.
RH values plummet to 28-35% for all except the immediate coast.
Lingering northwest breezes from 10-14 mph with gusts to around 20
mph. Significant fire potential index is moderate today; we will
monitor trends this morning and if winds do not sufficiently relax,
a short-fused Red Flag Warning may be required.

Wednesday - Friday... Fire-sensitive conditions through at least
Thursday over the interior. Another day of very low RHs on Wednesday
(30-35% over the interior), but winds remain less than 8 mph. RHs 35-
45% Thu and Fri. SW breezes up to 12 mph Thursday (except ESE at the
coast), becoming SE 5-10 mph on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  47  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  76  50  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  75  50  77  55 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  76  49  78  55 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  76  49  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  76  48  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  76  51  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  76  47  78  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Law
AVIATION...Weitlich