764
FXUS62 KMLB 132320
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
720 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

- Isolated showers in vicinity of I-4 this afternoon, remaining
  dry across the south.

- Dry and increasingly warm through the week, with areawide highs
  in the 90s by the weekend.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

Current-Tonight... A weak pulse of low level vorticity combined with
daytime heating has allowed isolated showers to develop in vicinity
of I-4 early this afternoon. Eastward moving shower activity should
stay north of a line form Melbourne to Lake Kissimmee, with no
mentionable precip chances to the south. Sounding profiles look to
remain capped, and there is low confidence for any lightning
development. Temperatures have quickly climbed, already reaching the
low to mid 80s area wide, and afternoon highs are forecast to peak
in the mid to upper 80s. A High risk of rip currents continues at
all local Atlantic Beaches.

Wednesday-Thursday... Mid/ upper level troughing across the
southeast is gradually pushed eastward as ridging begins to build
across the western Gulf. Model soundings suggest a dry air column
through the period and no precip is expected. Increasing
temperatures become the main weather story through the mid term.
Afternoon highs climb into the mid to upper 80s Wednesday before
spreading the upper 80s to low 90s on Thursday. Any relief from the
east coast sea breeze will be largely limited due to light westerly
flow. Morning low temperatures in the 60s Wednesday morning warm a
few degrees into Thursday morning.

Friday-Monday... Ridging aloft slides eastward before becoming
stationary across the central Gulf. This will continue to promote a
period of hot and dry conditions through the extended forecast with
no mentionable rain chances. Highs in the low to mid 90s on Friday
climb to spread the mid to upper 90s Saturday and into early next
week. Some climate sites may approach daily record values this
weekend. A Moderate Heat Risk is expected to build into the
weekend with peak heat index values forecast to reach 100 degrees.
This level of heat affects most individuals sensitive to heat and
prolonged sun exposure, especially without adequate hydration or
cooling. Muggy morning temperatures are forecast, mostly ranging
the upper 60s and low 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

Tonight-Saturday... Building high pressure will promote favorable
boating conditions through late week. Light west winds around 10 kts
or less shift onshore as the sea breeze develops each afternoon.
Seas 2-3 ft. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible
through tonight. Otherwise, dry with no mentionable precip
through the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

Dry conditions are forecast at the terminals through the
overnight hours and into tomorrow. Onshore winds from MLB
southward become southwesterly with all the other terminals,
staying around 5 knots overnight. Winds pick back up to 5 to 10
knots tomorrow morning out of the west-southwest, with winds
along the coast becoming easterly as the east coast sea breeze
develops and moves inland. Current model guidance does not hint at
any CIG or VIS reductions through the period, so kept all
terminals at VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  87  67  91 /   0  10   0   0
MCO  68  87  68  92 /   0  10   0   0
MLB  68  86  69  89 /  10  10   0   0
VRB  66  86  68  89 /  10   0   0   0
LEE  68  88  68  92 /   0  10   0   0
SFB  67  89  68  94 /   0  10   0   0
ORL  68  89  69  93 /   0  10   0   0
FPR  65  86  67  89 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Tollefsen