113
FXUS62 KMLB 281728
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
128 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 203 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

- High coverage of afternoon showers and storms into next week.

- Hot temperatures and increased humidity will lead to peak heat
  indices 100 to 105 degrees today. Proper precautions should be
  taken to prevent heat-related illnesses. Look before you lock!

- Moderate risk of rip currents continues at area beaches through
  at least early next week.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Today-Tonight...The Atlantic ridge axis continues to lift
northward into central Florida today, while an upper level low
remains over Georgia. High coverage of showers and storms again,
with PoPs 60-70% area-wide. Activity is forecast to begin by mid-
afternoon along the coast, before outflow boundaries and light
prevailing southwesterly flow allow the east coast sea breeze to
push inland. Additional showers and storms are then expected to
propagate inland, with a sea breeze collision taking place over
the interior peninsula late in the afternoon. Lingering drier air
aloft and 500mb temperatures around -8C could support a few strong
storms, especially along the collision. However, forecast lapse
rates are not quite as steep as previous days. Regardless,
stronger storms will be capable of wind gusts to around 50 mph,
frequent lightning strikes, and small hail. In addition, mid-level
high pressure over the local area will lead to very light steering
flow today. Thus, with soggy PWATs up to 2.1", locally heavy
rainfall will be possible. Quick accumulations of 1-3" may
produce minor flooding.

Boundary driven convection is forecast to linger into the evening
hours, before diminishing by around 10 PM. Then, drier conditions
prevail through the remainder of the overnight hours. However, a
few showers or storms cannot be ruled out along the southern
Treasure Coast towards morning. Prior to convection, high
temperatures today are forecast to reach the lower to mid-90s.
Humid conditions will also contribute to peak heat indices between
100-105 degrees. Use caution if spending time outdoors to avoid
heat-related illness. While light south to southwesterly winds
will prevail through much of the morning hours, winds will back
southeasterly behind the sea breeze.

Sunday-Tuesday...The ridge axis looks to remain over the local
area through early next week. Meanwhile, the previous upper level
low washes out over the Southeast US, while another low drifts
towards the Florida peninsula from the Bahamas. Similar conditions
day to day, with high moisture (PWATs 1.8-2") and generally light
south to southwesterly flow. Daily coverage of showers and storms
forecast between 60-70%. Afternoon sea breeze collisions over the
interior will maintain convection into the evening hours, before
drier conditions develop overnight. Slow moving storms will be
capable of strong wind gusts to around 50mph, small hail, frequent
lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall. Minor flooding
concerns may increase in any areas that receive multiple rounds
(days) of heavy rainfall. However, recent dry and drought
conditions should appreciate the rainfall. Seasonable temperatures
continue, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Humidity will
lead to apparent temperatures closer to the upper 90s and low
100s.

Wednesday-Saturday...The active pattern looks to continue into the
long range, as the ridge moves eastward and the ridge axis drifts
south of the area. Models suggest a trough digging into the
Southeast US and perhaps the northeast Gulf late in the week. The
evolution of this feature will bear watching over the next few
days. However, the overall forecast message remains the same:
south to southwesterly flow leading to humid and wet conditions,
as deep moisture remains over the area. High coverage of showers
and storms is expected to continue into the holiday weekend,
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. For now, have
maintained PoPs between 60-70%. While showers and storms would
help to keep high temperatures seasonable in the upper 80s to
lower 90s, humid conditions will continue to produce heat indices
in the lower 100s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

High coverage of afternoon showers and storms will continue
through at least mid-week next week. Some of this activity will be
capable of moving offshore, particularly into the late afternoon
and evening hours. However, weak steering flow will mean
propagation will be largely boundary driven. A few storms could
be strong, capable of frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds,
small hail, and heavy downpours. South to southwest winds
prevailing into next week, remaining less than 15 kts. However,
will see winds become southeasterly along the coast each afternoon
as the sea breeze develops. Seas 1-3ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Increasing coverage of showers and storms is forecast through the
remainder of this afternoon into the evening hours, with TEMPOs at
all terminals generally between 19 to 01Z for gusty winds and
reduced VIS and CIGs due to TSRA. Activity diminishes beyond 00Z,
becoming VCSH and eventually moving offshore. SSW winds today
become light and variable overnight, picking back up out of the SW
across the interior and out of the ESE along the coast after 15Z.
Another day of active weather is anticipated tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  89  72  88 /  60  50  50  70
MCO  74  90  74  89 /  60  60  50  70
MLB  73  89  74  88 /  50  60  50  60
VRB  70  89  71  89 /  50  50  30  50
LEE  74  89  74  87 /  50  60  50  70
SFB  74  92  74  89 /  50  60  50  70
ORL  74  91  75  89 /  50  60  50  70
FPR  70  88  71  89 /  50  50  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Tollefsen