114
FXUS62 KMLB 140547
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
147 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

- Hotter each day with heat indices approaching 102 to 107+
  degrees, especially tomorrow through Saturday

- Near normal rain and lightning storm chances, mainly along the
  sea breeze, with higher coverage focused across the interior in
  the late afternoon and early evening

- A moderate risk of rip currents will continue at area beaches
  through at least late week

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Now-Tonight...It is another warm and humid afternoon out there as
temperatures climb into the low 90s. Combined with dew points in the
mid to upper 70s, heat index values are pushing into the low/mid
100s for most. Daytona Beach did reach 108 degrees just before 2
PM. Visible satellite shows the low-level cumulus field
drifting northeastward as the east coast breeze begins to take
shape. So far, it remains near and just east of I-95 and will likely
take all afternoon to make inland progress. Some showers have
already formed across eastern St. Lucie and Martin counties, along
with new initiation near Lake George and Deland in Volusia
County.

Recent CAM and hi-res ensemble guidance indicate a slightly more
favorable environment for storms this afternoon. Forecast
soundings show DCAPE of 1200+ J/kg across the interior (note the 15z
XMR sounding had over 1100 J/kg), along with slightly higher mid-
level lapse rates around 6C/km. While it is a bit challenging to pin
down exact locations, higher rain coverage is anticipated from
Osceola County northward, especially along I-4 toward Daytona Beach
through early evening. Locally higher rainfall amounts of 2-3+
inches are possible, along with gusty winds to 50 mph and frequent
lightning. Some pushback toward the Atlantic coast is possible,
especially if storms become more outflow-dominant. Most of the wet
weather is forecast to end shortly before midnight, leaving behind
temperatures settling into the 70s overnight.

Thursday...Ridging centered over the state of Florida Thursday will
help keep light southwest winds in play until the east coast breeze
forms early to mid afternoon. Forecast highs are about a degree
warmer in most spots tomorrow compared to today, meaning a few
locations could approach Heat Advisory criteria (heat index of
108F+). Model trends over the next 12 hours will help determine
whether or not an advisory will be needed during the day Thursday.
For now, though, forecast conditions fall just short in both space
and time. Similar convective parameters are on the table Thursday
afternoon (high CAPE, low shear, warm H5 temps, modest 2-6km lapse
rates), meaning an occasionally gusty storm or one that produces a
quick 1-3" of rain remains possible. Steering flow remains light
with a pivot point around the Orlando metro, so watch for any storms
along I-4, SR-528, and the Florida Turnpike to be heavy rain
producers. Localized flooding could develop in urban and low-lying
areas.

Once again, a majority of afternoon/evening convection winds down
before before midnight. Temperatures into early Friday morning
retreat into the mid and upper 70s, so it will still feel quite
muggy. Keep in mind that a stretch of hot days and warm, muggy
nights builds the overall HeatRisk. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk is
forecast Thursday, especially from Osceola/Brevard northward,
including Greater Orlando. Stay cool and out of the heat during the
late morning to late afternoon, if possible, while keeping hydrated
through the day. Never leave children or pets unattended in vehicles
and consider checking in on those who may be more vulnerable to heat-
related illness.

Friday-Tuesday (modified previous)...Mid-level high pressure in the
eastern Gulf will slowly shift west and northward through the
period. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic
will slowly shift northward as Tropical Cyclone Erin approaches
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico into early next week. Locally,
E/SE winds will dominate each day with wind speeds generally 10
mph or less. Winds will back offshore during the overnight hours
through Saturday. A slight increase in low level moisture is
forecast this weekend into early next week, with PW values around
1.8-2.1" (highest values are forecast around the I-4 corridor).
This will support convection each afternoon and evening. There is
a low to medium (20-50 percent) chance of rain and storm on
Friday, and a medium (40-60 percent) chance for rain and storms
Saturday through Tuesday, with the greatest coverage occurring
across the interior each day.

Warm and humid conditions will continue into early next week.
Afternoon highs will reach the low to mid 90s each day. These
temperatures, coupled with higher humidity, will produce peak heat
indices of at least 102-107 degrees each afternoon. The potential
exists for higher values (up to 110 degrees), especially on
Friday and Saturday, across the northern portions of the CWA. A Heat
Advisory may be needed to end the week, so will continue to closely
monitor this trend. Overnight conditions will remain warm and muggy
with lows generally in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Favorable boating conditions are forecast through the remainder of
the week and into the weekend. Light SSW flow each night veers SSE
in the afternoon behind the developing east coast breeze. Onshore NE
flow returns later in the weekend. Seas remain 2-3 ft, except where
locally higher in the vicinity of storms. Near to slightly below
normal rain chances are forecast through Saturday with increasing
coverage over the waters Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 147 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Light and variable winds through early Thursday. East to
southeast winds (7-10 kts) then develop in the afternoon as the
east coast sea breeze moves inland. Scattered afternoon showers
and storms are forecast primarily near and northwest of the I-4
corridor with VCTS mentioned at DAB (18Z) and the interior
terminals (19-20Z). Confidence in TSRA impacts remains to low for
TEMPOs at this time. Activity should generally diminish around 01Z
with mostly dry conditions forecast through the remainder of the
night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  77  93  77 /  40  20  30  20
MCO  95  78  96  77 /  50  20  40  20
MLB  92  78  92  77 /  30  10  20  10
VRB  93  75  93  75 /  30  10  20  10
LEE  94  78  95  79 /  40  20  40  20
SFB  95  78  96  78 /  40  20  40  20
ORL  95  78  96  79 /  50  20  40  20
FPR  92  74  93  73 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144-247-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Law