597
FXUS62 KMLB 021904
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
304 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

- Hot and humid conditions with peak afternoon heat indices up to 107
  and Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts will continue into next
  week.

- Near to above normal rain chances will offer some respite from
  the heat, but also bring risk of strong storms capable of gusty
  winds, deadly lightning, and very heavy rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Current-Tonight...A delayed east coast sea breeze has developed
along the coast from the Cape southward and has become active with
convection. The outflow from these storms will give an inland push
to the sea breeze with an eventual collision over the interior. The
sea breeze is slower to develop north of the Cape so the collision
there will occur closer to the Volusia coast late in the afternoon
and early eve. As a result, have increased PoPs for the evening from
Volusia southward to Osceola. Late morning Cape sounding shows
continued deep moisture with PWATs of 2.15" and notably less dry air
aloft so DCAPE values (~800 J/kg) are not as high as yesterday. But
it looks like there was some bad sfc temp data (36.6C!) ingested by
the sounding which gives MUCAPE value of 9520 J/kg...not believable.
Anyway, the wind fields look fine which show storms will be slow
moving with heavy rains accumulating a quick 1-3 inches, causing
temporary flooding of some roads esp where recent heavy rains have
occurred.

Sun-Mon...A weak front is forecast to remain stalled across North
Florida and extending into the northern Gulf as well as into the SW
Atlc. A disturbance or two are likely to develop along the boundary,
with models consistently developing one off the Carolinas before
eventually ejecting it into the open Atlantic. NHC has increased
probabilities a touch to 30% in their Outlook and even if probs
increase further, it is not forecast to impact East Central Florida.
The low level ridge axis will remain south of the area Sunday
maintaining the light SW flow turning onshore behind the aftn sea
breeze. On Monday, the ridge axis lifts a bit north which produces a
more south flow and likely an earlier onset of the sea breeze.
Regardless, hot and humid conditions with afternoon highs in the low
to mid 90s and peak afternoon heat indices 101-107, and Moderate to
Major HeatRisk impacts.

Will continue to show lowest PoPs Sunday along the Treasure coast (35-
40%) increasing to 60% across the north/interior with lingering
convection possible once again into the eve there. In fact, it is
possible that the bulk of the convection Sunday may be delayed by
increased dry air in the mid levels and will occur very late in the
day and persist into the evening once triggered by boundary
collisions. Considerable upper level moisture will continue to
produce cirrostratus.  and drier air in the 850-700mb layer critical
to updraft development overspreads much of Central Florida. Rain
chances increase Monday, with PoPs back up to 70% across the north
interior. Strong storms capable of gusty winds, deadly lightning,
and torrential downpours will be possible, better chances for which
Monday.

Tuesday-Friday (modified)...The stagnant upper-level pattern
continues through mid-week as disturbances migrating through the
pattern reinforce troughing over the Southeast, then may finally
loosen up late week. The stationary front is forecast to remain
draped across North Florida. There remains potential for
additional disturbances to develop along the boundary, including
one in the northern Gulf but NHC probs are too low to mention at
this time in their TWO. There is some uncertainty how much
moisture there will be across ECFL south of the front, with
ensemble mean PWATs ending up near climatology around 1.8-1.9",
while deterministic guidance varies from slightly below normal to
slightly above normal. Official forecast continues above normal
rain chances, but by no means a washout. Temperatures remain above
normal, but there is a very gradual "cooling" trend closer to
normal (for what that`s worth) by late week from the onshore flow.
Until then, peak afternoon heat indices continue to flirt with
Heat Advisory criteria mid- week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions through early next week.
The ridge axis of the Bermuda high remains suppressed south of the
area through Sunday with a stalled front across north Florida. Seas
1-3 ft. A weak disturbance or two developing along this front,
notably offshore of the Carolinas, could further weaken the ridge
through Monday. Winds remain out of the southwest, switching to the
south in the afternoon and evening with the sea breeze circulation
at 5-15 kts. While these disturbances are forecast to remain well
outside of the local Atlantic waters, swell could produce choppy
seas 2-4 ft around mid- week, especially in the Gulf Stream. A very
weak ridge axis lifts back towards Central Florida mid-week as the
disturbance off the Carolinas ejects into the open Atlantic,
shifting winds more southerly which become southeasterly with the
sea breeze at 5-15 kts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 156 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

VFR outside of convection. The east coast sea breeze has developed
from Brevard county southward early this afternoon with isolated
showers observed in vicinity of MLB and the Treasure Coast
terminals. Scattered afternoon and evening showers are forecast
across much of east central Florida as the east and west sea
breezes progress inland, and VCTS is mentioned at all terminals.
TSRA TEMPOs are included at MCO/ISM/SFB/DAB (20/23Z) and TIX
(21/24Z) for VIS/CIG reductions in convection. Light southwest
flow backs south to southeast as the east coast sea breeze
passes. VCTS could linger a few hours beyond sunset at the
greater Orlando terminals. Dry conditions are then forecast
overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  93  77  92 /  40  60  30  60
MCO  77  95  77  95 /  40  60  20  70
MLB  77  92  78  92 /  30  50  30  50
VRB  74  93  75  93 /  30  40  20  40
LEE  78  93  77  93 /  20  60  20  70
SFB  78  95  78  95 /  40  60  30  60
ORL  79  95  79  95 /  30  60  30  70
FPR  74  93  74  93 /  20  40  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Law