019
FXUS62 KMLB 222321
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
721 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

- A weak front stalls across south-central Florida, leading to an
  increase in shower/storm chances through late week. A Marginal
  Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms exists for portions
  of east central Florida again on Friday.

- A low to medium chance for showers and storms will exist through
  the weekend (20-40%), increasing into next week (40-50%).

- Temps will be closer to seasonal norms overnight. However,
  hotter conditions return through the holiday weekend, with highs
  back in the mid 90s for portions of the interior.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Currently...The weak front has pushed through most of East
Central Florida with little fanfare today, only now firing up
lightning storms thanks to daytime heating and addition of
multiple boundaries from the sea breezes and lake breezes.

Rest of Today-Friday...The environment ahead of the front remains
conditionally supportive of stronger storms due to cool mid-level
temperatures approaching -10C and modest westerly shear. Deeper
convection will need to overcome lacking low-level moisture and a
slightly hostile mid-level environment, but daytime heating and
the abundance of boundaries are getting storms passed that hurdle
near the front. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms
continues the Okeechobee, Indian River, St. Lucie, and Martin,
southern Osceola, and southern Brevard counties. Hi-res guidance
through the day has been inconsistent where and when storms will
pop, especially once storm outflow gets added to the mix, so areal
and temporal coverage of rain and storm chances in the official
forecast remain on the broader side. At the moment the ARW and
NSSL hi-res models are performing best (with the HRRR currently
out to lunch), which support the current forecast, albeit maybe a
little further south than previously advertised. Main threats
continue to be strong to locally damaging wind gusts of 40-60 mph,
hail up to 1" in diameter, frequent lightning, and locally heavy
downpours. There is also a very low (less than 2%) threat for a
tornado given the number of boundaries and interactions. There is
also potential for slow moving or training storms and heavy
showers that could deliver a quick 1-3" of rainfall, with locally
high amounts of 5" possible, leading to minor flooding.

The front stalls just to the south by Friday, and with little
change to the overall environment, the conditional risk for
stronger storms repeats itself. The Marginal (level 1 of 5 risk)
returns for much of the same area with the same storm threats.
Most showers and storms stay south of the Orlando Metro where
drier conditions exist behind the front. While the majority of
storms are expected in the afternoon and evening again, there is
potential for a storm or two across the southern counties in the
morning.

Still on the warm side today and Friday with highs U80s-L90s, but
Heat Index values drop below 100, and Minor HeatRisk impacts
expected for most of the area.

Saturday-Wednesday...(Previous Discussion) Through the holiday
weekend, high pressure over the west Atlantic will build back
across Florida, with winds generally out of the S/SE, and an east
coast sea breeze developing and pushing inland each afternoon.
Sufficient moisture lingers in the wake of the front to generate
isolated to scattered showers and storms each afternoon with the
sea breeze. While shear weakens and temps aloft warm gradually
through the period, there will remain the potential for a few
stronger storms each day. Hotter conditions return, especially
inland where highs will reach the mid 90s, mainly near to
northwest of the I-4 corridor.

Another front is forecast to move through the southeast U.S. and
approach central Florida into the middle of next week. Temps are
forecast to remain above normal with scattered showers and storms
continuing each afternoon and evening on Tuesday and Wednesday,
with rain chances around 50 percent.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Rest of Today-Monday...(Modified Previous Discussion) A weak
front moving into the Treasure Coast waters continues to push
south towards the South Florida Atlantic waters by Friday morning.
The front then stalls and lifts north, with high pressure over
the west Atlantic building back across the Florida peninsula
through the holiday weekend. Winds a bit squirrelly through
Friday between the front coming and going and the daily sea breeze
circulation, then establishing out of the S/SE at 15 kts or less
through much of the weekend and into Memorial Day. Seas will range
from 2-4 feet today, falling to 2-3 feet into the weekend.

Generally favorable boating conditions through late week into the
holiday weekend, with the exception of a return of developing
lightning storms over the waters. A few offshore moving storms,
some which may be strong to severe will be possible during the
evening hours today and Friday, mainly near to south of the Cape.
Offshore steering winds then weaken into the weekend, which should
keep majority of scattered afternoon and evening storms over land.
However, isolated to scattered storms developing over the waters
will still be possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Generally VFR conds continuing in absence of convection. Cannot
rule out some patchy (ground) fog early Fri morning, esp locations
that receive rainfall from this past evening (southward). SCT
showers & lightning storms Fri afternoon, highest chances south of
KMCO. A few storms may, again, be strong to marginally severe.
"Vicinity" wording for late tomorrow KMCO southward with eventual
TEMPO groups as confidence increases. Onshore flow will become
light this evening and eventually transition to an offshore
component. The ECSB will develop and move well inland again on
Fri. Expect multiple boundary (sea, lake, convective) collisions
late Fri sparking convection.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Today`s front pushes into South Florida where is stalls Friday,
then lifts back north through the weekend. Despite a gradual
moisture return behind the front before it lifts north, increasing
temps (highs in the low to mid 90s) will lead to Min RH values
still falling as low as 30-40 percent near to NW of I-4 Friday,
and 35-45 pct Saturday. This will continue sensitive fire weather
conditions across this area, but shifty winds across the interior
are forecast to remain around 5-10 mph.

Daily shower and lightning storm chances are forecast to continue
across the area today through the holiday weekend and into next
week as the front lifts north. Greatest coverage of this activity
through late week will occur during the afternoon/evening hours,
primarily south of Orlando where a few stronger storms may
develop. Shower and storm chances then gradually increase across
east central Florida through the holiday weekend and into next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  89  70  90 /  20  10   0  20
MCO  71  93  71  94 /  20  30  10  30
MLB  71  88  73  88 /  20  30  10  30
VRB  71  88  72  89 /  30  40  10  30
LEE  70  93  71  95 /  20  20   0  20
SFB  70  93  71  94 /  20  20  10  30
ORL  71  93  72  94 /  20  20  10  30
FPR  71  88  71  90 /  30  50  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Sedlock