531
FXUS62 KMLB 152058
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
358 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 330 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

- A Marginal risk (Level 1/5) of severe storms exists this evening
  across northern parts of east central FL. While rain chances are
  high and locally heavy rain will occur in some spots, storm
  total rainfall amounts will not have a significant impact on our
  drought.

- Cooler Monday behind a cold front then warming back up through
  the week and quickly drying out.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Current thru tonight...Strong sfc heating has generated deep
mixing and pulled increasing winds up thru 850 mb down to the sfc
in wind gusts with frequent gusts near 35 mph across the northern
FA. But as cloud cover increases, the winds and esp the gustiness
will begin to subside late this aftn.

A squall line currently over the NE Gulf outpaces the actual cold
front which lags a bit farther to the west. The band of showers
and storms is forecast to reach Lake and Volusia counties just
after sunset (7-8 pm) and metro Orlando btwn 9-10 pm based on the
latest HRRR. The current Tornado Watch just to our north expires
at 8pm and it is possible another watch may be needed to the south
and could encompass some of our northern counties later this
evening. There has been little change to the MRGL risk for severe
storms across EC FL today. Strong wind fields and upper forcing
from a potent shortwave trough will produce a risk for damaging
wind gusts and a tornado or two, primarily north of a line from
Titusville to Lake Kissimmee during the evening hours. Although
gradually veering low level flow is forecast, low level shear and
helicity profiles will support a low risk for a tornado.

The line will weaken as it moves south of Melbourne/Lake
Kissimmee, across Okeechobee and the Treasure coast later
tonight. Gusty showers remain possible even in absence of stronger
storms as wind fields will increase 40-45 knots at 925 mb.
Localized rainfall totals may reach 1" across portions of Lake,
Volusia, Seminole and Orange counties but much lesser amounts to
the south.

Mon...Sounding profiles hold a layer of low level moisture below
850mb through the day, and cannot completely discount isolated
sprinkles or even light showers. Winds will veer NW to N during
the day, with breezy conditions along the coast. There will also
be considerable stratus esp along the Volusia coast which should
hold max temps in the upper 60s there. Elsewhere, max temps in the
70s will occur noticeably cooler than today.

Tue-Sun (modified)...A warming trend sets up through late week as
surface high pressure moves into the western Atlantic and a
trailing ridge axis settles south across the area, becoming
stationary across south FL by late week. Max temps reach the mid
80s across all the interior by Thu and continue Fri-Sat with low
to mid 80s coast. The next cold front is forecast to push through
around Sunday which would bring temps down to more seasonable
levels. But there are no mentionable rain chances Tue through Sat,
further increasing drought and fire sensitivities.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Small Craft Advisories in effect for south to southwest winds 20
knots nearshore and increasing to 25 knots offshore thru this
evening. Nearshore waters should be able to drop back to a
Caution overnight but winds/seas will keep the Advisory offshore
thru Mon morning. Winds turn NW to N Monday behind the cold front
with 15 knots, even 15-20 knots which may require a Caution. High
pressure pushes east offshore the Carolina coast with a trailing
ridge axis that settles southward across the waters mid week. So
winds will decrease but an increasing swell will keep seas a
little higher than expected.

A broken band of showers and embedded storms pushes southward
across the waters this evening and overnight bringing high rain
chances (70-90%). Strong to marginally severe storms will be
possible pushing offshore, primarily north of the Cape. The
cluster of showers and storms will weaken as it pushes south
of the Cape, finally pushing south of Jupiter Inlet near or
shortly after sunrise Monday. However, additional rain chances
should linger across the local waters Monday before drying Tuesday
and into mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 103 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

As winds veer showers over the coastal waters are expected to
remain well off the coast. Breezy/gusty S/SSW winds in full swing
with gusts approaching 25-30 kts - highest along the coast this
afternoon. Winds only gradually slacken into this evening, with
still some higher gusts. Directional component will become SW
overnight and W/WNW by sunrise for many. Mostly dry conditions
thru much of the afternoon. Then, a line of showers and lightning
storms ahead of a cold front will move southward through the area
this evening through tonight. Models remain in fairly good
agreement about the timing of this line, so have kept inherited
TEMPOs timing impacts at all terminals. Storms expected to have
the strongest potential along/north of I-4 this evening, with a
diminishing threat southward and overnight. Embedded cells within
the line will move from SW to NE at greater than 40 kts. Strong
wind gusts and damaging winds the main threat and cannot rule out
some small hail. Low confidence in trying to time MVFR/IFR CIGs
behind the line and mostly expected from near MLB northward.
Previous... Along the Treasure Coast, the lower CIGs will be
racing the sunrise and model guidance suggests CIGs will not be
quite as impactful nor persistent there. Any stratus that does
form is forecast to lift by mid-morning Monday, but may linger a
bit longer across DAB and perhaps a few other terminals across
I-4.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Southerly surface and transport winds will produce sustained winds
15-25 mph, gusting 30-35 mph this afternoon. This will combine with
very warm temperatures to produce high dispersion values and a very
fire weather sensitive day. Min RH values between 35-40% are
forecast. A few instantaneous red flag conditions may occur. Given
the very dry conditions, any new or existing fires will be capable
of spreading rapidly.

Much needed rain will move in this evening and into the overnight
associated with a cold front. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be
higher across northern sections (Orlando northward) between 0.25-
0.75" and there is a risk there for isolated strong to severe storms
containing wind gusts up to 60 mph between 7pm and midnight. Lesser
rain amounts between 0.10-0.25" are forecast from Melbourne
southward.

Isolated showers may linger Monday with a wind shift out of the
northwest to north and breezy along the coast. A warm and drying
trend then sets up through the remainder of the week with no
mentionable rainfall and temperatures climbing through the 80s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  58  69  55  74 /  90   0  10  10
MCO  62  73  58  77 /  90   0  10  10
MLB  59  73  57  75 /  90  10  20  10
VRB  60  76  58  76 /  80  10  20  10
LEE  59  72  54  77 /  90   0   0  10
SFB  60  73  55  77 /  90   0  10  10
ORL  62  73  57  77 /  90   0  10  10
FPR  60  77  56  77 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for FLZ041-044>046-141-
     144.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ550-552-
     555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Leahy