829
FXUS62 KMLB 151746
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
146 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Near to slightly below normal rain and storm chances today,
  increasing Thursday onward as moisture increases across east
  central Florida. Lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours
  will remain the primary storm hazards with any convective
  development.

- Temperatures are forecast to remain near to slightly above
  normal this week through next week, with peak heat indices
  anticipated to increase into early next week.

- A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast at all east central
  Florida beaches today. Always swim near a lifeguard!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Today-Tonight...Broad surface high pressure will remain in place
across the Florida peninsula, with the ridge axis draped just
south of east central Florida. This will support ongoing westerly
flow both at the surface and aloft, with easy development of the
west coast sea breeze forecast/ The west coast sea breeze will
quickly push inland through this afternoon, causing winds to
increase to 10 to 15 mph. The east coast sea breeze will develop
but will struggle to move inland due to the westerly flow aloft.
Areas south of the Cape will have the best chances of seeing a
further intrusion inland of the east coast sea breeze. An eventual
sea breeze collision is anticipated across eastern portions of
the Florida peninsula late this afternoon, which would correspond
with the greatest coverage of showers and storms across east
central Florida. However, the Saharan Air Layer overhead may act
as a limiting factor to convective development through this
afternoon, which has been reflected in the 20-40% PoPs across east
central Florida. While coverage may be slightly lower than
normal, this doesn`t completely negate the potential for stronger
storm development with this activity. Steep low-level lapse rates,
SBCAPE ranging from 1500-2000 J/kg, and DCAPE 600-900 J/kg will
be supportive of frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 55
mph, and brief heavy downpours. If storms are able to tap into the
drier air aloft via the SAL, would not be surprised to see some
storms producing wind gusts in excess of 55 mph, though confidence
in this remains low at this time. The westerly flow aloft will
push convection towards the east coast and eventually offshore,
with activity diminishing overnight. Mostly dry conditions are
forecast across east central Florida through the overnight hours.

Temperatures will remain persistent in the low to mid 90s across
east central Florida this afternoon, with peak heat indices of
100- 105F. Adequate hydration and breaks in the shade or air
conditioning will be important for those spending extended periods
of time outdoors. Muggy conditions will continue into the
overnight hours, with lows generally in the mid to upper 70s.

At the beaches, there is a moderate risk of rip currents. Always
swim near a lifeguard and never enter the surf alone!

Thursday...Broad high pressure at the surface and aloft is
forecast to persist into Thursday across east central Florida.
Trends in guidance suggest the Saharan Air Layer diminishing
across the Florida peninsula into Thursday, with PWATs forecast to
once again exceed 2" nearly areawide. Rain and storm chances will
increase into Thursday as a result, with PoPs ranging from
30-50%. Shower and storm development will primarily be driven by
the west coast sea breeze moving across the peninsula, with a sea
breeze collision across east central Florida anticipated into the
afternoon hours. Guidance is hinting at greater instability
areawide on Thursday, with SBCAPE values ranging from 1500-2500
J/kg. DCAPE values remain fairly similar to today, generally
600-900 J/kg and temperatures aloft will also be fairly unchanged.
Any storm development on Thursday would likely produce frequent
lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 55 mph, and brief heavy
downpours. Steering flow will push activity eastward towards the
coast, with showers and storms moving offshore through the late
evening and overnight hours. Mostly dry conditions are anticipated
into Thursday night across the peninsula. Temperatures will
remain near to slightly above normal with highs in the low to mid
90s and lows in the mid to upper 70s. Peak heat indices are
forecast to reach the 100-107F range areawide. Those planning on
spending extended periods of time outdoors are encouraged to
remain adequately hydrated and take frequent breaks in the shade
or an air conditioned building.

Friday-Tuesday...Towards the end of this week, the mid-level
ridging pattern is forecast to gradually break down, with
troughing developing and remaining in place across the Florida
peninsula through the weekend and into next week. The surface high
will respond by shifting southward, with the ridge axis forecast
to stay south of central Florida through the extended period.
Persistent west to southwest flow is forecast locally, resulting
in moisture advection from the Gulf towards east central Florida.
Rain and storm chances are forecast to increase as a direct
result, with a return of scattered to numerous shower and storm
coverage anticipated each afternoon from Friday through Tuesday.
Convection will be primarily driven by the west coast sea breeze
pushing across the peninsula, with the sea breeze collision
favored across the eastern peninsula each afternoon. Activity will
then push offshore, diminishing across the local Atlantic waters
through the overnight hours. In addition to showers and storms,
the usual Florida heat will persist, with near to slightly above
normal highs forecast in the low to mid 90s. Humid conditions will
support peak heat indices exceeding 100F areawide, with a low
chance of nearing Heat Advisory criteria in some spots through the
extended period. Will continue to closely monitor trends.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast across the
local Atlantic waters. Broad surface high pressure will remain
situated just south of the local waters, allowing for persistent
west to southwest flow overnight and into the morning hours, with
the east coast sea breeze causing winds to become more southerly
during the afternoons. Wind speeds are forecast to remain below 15
knots through the remainder of this week and into the weekend.
Seas remain between 1 to 3 feet.

Rain and storms will be possible each afternoon into the evening
and overnight hours as activity from the peninsula pushes
offshore. Coverage of showers and storms will increase Thursday
onward as moisture increases across the local Atlantic waters.
Storm hazards with convection will include cloud-to-water
lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 34 knots, brief heavy
downpours, and locally higher seas near convection.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF period. Delayed sea
breeze convection today, with PROB30s included at all sites.
Convection initially looks to develop across the inland terminals
after 19Z, then spread towards the coast through 21-22Z, where it
lingers into the evening hours. Coverage overall looks to be
widely scattered, but will monitor the need for TEMPOs, should a
shower or storm look to impact a certain airfield. W flow
prevails, though SE winds develop from MLB southward as the sea
breeze moves inland. Winds 10 kts or less overall, becoming light
and generally offshore overnight. Similar conditions expected for
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  91  75  91 /  20  70  20  70
MCO  76  93  77  93 /  20  60  30  70
MLB  76  92  77  91 /  30  60  30  70
VRB  74  93  75  92 /  30  50  30  70
LEE  77  92  77  91 /  20  60  30  70
SFB  77  93  77  93 /  20  70  20  70
ORL  77  93  77  92 /  20  60  30  70
FPR  74  93  74  92 /  30  50  30  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Wishard