813
FXUS62 KMLB 121848
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
248 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

- Temperatures trending hotter each day with heat indices
  approaching 102 to 107+ degrees, especially from Thursday into
  the weekend

- Near normal rain and lightning storm chances, focused along the
  sea breeze, with higher coverage forecast across the interior
  each afternoon/evening

- A moderate risk of rip currents will continue at all area
  beaches through at least midweek

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Now-Tonight...Scattered showers and storms are off to an earlier
start today, compared to yesterday, due to an uptick in available
moisture. The east coast sea breeze and associated storm outflow
have provided for additional development west of the I-95 corridor
in the last hour or so, and westward trends are forecast to continue
through early evening. Northward storm motion around 15 mph is
keeping rain amounts manageable, but on occasion, several showers or
storms are moving over the same location. Where this does occur, up
to 1-2" of rainfall are possible (with isolated amounts to 3").
Gusty winds are also a possibility as DCAPE approaches 1000 J/kg in
a few spots, along with cloud-to-ground lightning strikes.

Temperatures (outside of storms) have reached the low 90s over a
large portion of east central Florida this afternoon. Combined with
the plentiful moisture over the FL Peninsula, heat indices are
reaching the low to mid 100 once again. As showers and storms
gradually dissipate post-sunset, these warm temps will retreat into
the 70s overnight.

Wednesday-Thursday...Ridging strengthens overhead by the middle of
the week, reinforcing a weakened pressure gradient and south-
southeasterly surface flow. PW closer to 2"+ look to reside most
prominently along and north of the I-4 corridor during this period,
extending southwestward toward the Tampa region. With the
development of the east coast sea breeze each afternoon, isolated to
scattered showers are forecast along the boundary, moving
progressively inland. Higher rain chances exist from the Orlando
metro westward (50-60%), where additional boundary collisions could
lead to further convective initiation. With H5 temps remaining warm
(-5C), showers and storms will continually struggle to become better
organized. However, brief gusty winds, occasional lightning strikes,
and heavy downpours remain possible.

Temperatures keep climbing each day, with the warmest of these days
being Thursday. Over a large portion of the area, maximum heat index
values are forecast to reach the mid 100s Wednesday, approaching
Heat Advisory levels (108 degrees) by Thursday afternoon. We will
continue to monitor the potential for heat-related headlines later
in the week, but regardless, start taking breaks in air conditioning
and staying hydrated through the week. A several day stretch of
above normal temperatures do look to make a comeback, beginning
Thursday.

Friday-Monday (modified previous)...Mid-level high pressure in
the eastern Gulf will slowly shift west and northward through the
period. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic
will slowly shift northward as Tropical Cyclone Erin approaches
the Leeward Islands into early next week. Locally, E/SE winds will
dominate each day with wind speeds generally 10 mph or less.
Winds will back offshore during the overnight hours through
Saturday. A slight increase in low level moisture is forecast this
weekend into early next week, with PW values around 1.8-2.1"
(highest values are forecast around the I-4 corridor). This will
support convection each afternoon and evening. There is a low to
medium (20-50 percent) chance of rain and storm on Friday, and a
medium (40-60 percent) chance for rain and storms Saturday through
Monday, with the greatest coverage occurring across the interior
each day.

Warm and humid conditions will continue into early next week.
Afternoon highs will reach the low to mid 90s each day. These
temperatures, coupled with higher humidity, will produce peak heat
indices of 102-107 degrees each afternoon. The potential exists for
isolated higher values (up to 109 degrees), especially Friday and
Saturday across northern portions of the CWA, which could reach
Heat Advisory levels...so will continue to closely monitor this
trend. Overnight conditions will remain warm and muggy with lows
generally in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Boating conditions remain generally favorable through the first half
of the weekend with seas around 2-3 ft and light south-southeasterly
winds during the day backing to the west-southwest each night. High
pressure builds overhead through the week, slowly breaking down
later in the weekend. Rain and lightning storm chances are forecast
near typical values for this time of year (30-40%), with the highest
coverage across interior Florida. Where storms do occur, lightning
strikes, gusty winds, and locally higher seas may result.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

VCSH/VCTS along the coast expands towards the interior through
this afternoon, with TEMPOs at MCO and the interior terminals from
20-01Z from reduced VIS and CIGs due to TSRA. Activity diminishes
after 00Z, with light SE winds overnight becoming more SSW by
tomorrow morning. Another active afternoon is anticipated near the
terminals, beyond 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  92  76  93 /  30  50  10  40
MCO  76  95  77  95 /  30  60  30  50
MLB  77  92  77  92 /  30  40  10  30
VRB  75  93  75  93 /  20  30  10  30
LEE  77  93  78  94 /  40  60  20  50
SFB  76  94  77  95 /  30  50  20  50
ORL  77  94  78  96 /  30  60  30  50
FPR  74  92  74  93 /  20  40  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Tollefsen