152
FXUS62 KMLB 301122
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
722 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 221 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

- An active weather pattern will persist across East Central
  Florida this week as onshore flow and high moisture supports
  above normal rain and storm chances, including during the
  overnights and early mornings. Strong storms will be possible
  each day.

- Primary storm hazards today will be gusty winds to 55 mph, with
  a very low chance for isolated damaging winds to around 60 mph,
  frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall that could lead
  to flooding of urban, low-lying, and poor drainage areas. Small
  hail can`t be ruled out.

- Muggy conditions and seasonably hot temperatures in the upper
  80s to low 90s will continue to produce heat indices in the
  triple digits through the week. Be sure to take frequent breaks
  in the shade or air conditioning if spending prolonged time
  outdoors to avoid the development of heat-related illness.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Today-Tonight...The center of high pressure over the CONUS
gravitates towards the Central Plains, while extending across much
of the South Central and Southeastern US, far enough north that
weak disturbances will be able to transit Florida and the Gulf on
the southern flank. At the surface, the ridge axis of the Bermuda
high has set up station north of the Florida peninsula where it
will remain for the rest of the week, keeping us in onshore
(easterly) flow. While this regime favors quick development of the
Atlantic breeze, and a sea breeze collision with it`s associated
highest daily storm chances on the western side of the peninsula,
abnormally high moisture (even for late August) and the
disturbances aloft will support above normal/scattered to numerous
showers and lightning storms through the daytime and nighttime
hours. Highest chances 50-70% near the typical afternoon-evening
period, though showers and storms could get going over the
Atlantic waters and near the coast in the morning, which may throw
off timing for the rest of the day. Forecast also calls for
lingering 20-40% chances in the overnight, mainly from convection
developing over the Atlantic waters moving onshore.

Model soundings show an atmospheric profile somewhere
between the typical Florida afternoon environment, and the long-
skinny profiles favorable for heavy rainfall. Instability is a
little muted compared to previous days (MUCAPE "only" 2,000-3,000
J/kg and MLCAPE 1,000-2,000 J/kg) due to the early start, high
cloud cover, and mid-level temperatures on the warm side (around
M6 C), but low-level lapse rates are very steep (around 8 C/km)
and will support quick updraft development in the boundary layer.
Some inhibition exists in the form of a bit of dry air between
700-500mb, but updrafts that are able to punch through this layer
will benefit from downdraft enhancement on the way back down.
DCAPE is a little lower than previous days (700-900 J/kg), but
water loading may be able to make up the difference. Primary storm
threats are forecast to be gusty winds 45-55 mph, with a very low
(less than 2%) chance for isolated damaging winds around 60 mph,
frequent cloud to ground lightning, and torrential downpours.
Modest but deep E-SE steering flow should usher most storms and
heavy showers along, but some may become slow/erratic where
multiple boundaries interact, and produce quick, locally high
rainfall amounts of 2-3" leading to minor flooding. There is a low
(up to 5%) chance for amounts over 4" that could produce greater
flooding impacts. The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked all
of East Central Florida in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for
excessive rainfall. While the environment isn`t overly favorable
for hail, some small hail reports were received yesterday
(Saturday), and the environment is similar enough to keep the
threat.

As for the rest of the forecast, seasonably hot temperatures with
highs in the U80s-M90s, which combined with the high humidity,
will result in peak afternoon heat indices in the U90s-M100s, and
can`t rule out one or two spots touching the U100s. HeatRisk
impacts remain generally Moderate, with a few pockets of Major in
and around the Orlando Metro Area, and along the southern coast.

Monday...Overall setup remains largely unchanged from today
(Sunday), but the environment is forecast to become even more
saturated. Model soundings trend closer to the long-skinny
profile, resulting in a little less instability and downdraft
enhancement from entrainment, but better supporting heavy
rainfall. Steering flow may also break down Monday afternoon,
allowing more storms to become slow/erratic and deliver quick +2"
inches of rainfall that may lead to flooding. The Weather
Prediction Center has again outlined all of East Central Florida
in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. The very
high moisture will support greater water loading, which could
still produce wind gusts 40-50 mph in storms and heavy showers.
Frequent lightning will remain a threat, but small hail will be
increasingly unlikely. The high moisture could cause a waterspout
or two to develop over the Atlantic waters or near the coast.
Little change in temperatures, with highs remaining seasonably hot
in the U80s-M90s. Peak afternoon heat indices increase a degree
or two to the L-M100s, and there remains a low chances for a few
locations to reach into the U100s. HeatRisk impacts mostly Minor
to Moderate.

Tuesday-Saturday...The active pattern will continue through the
week as onshore flow persists in above normal moisture. The mid-
upper high/ridge gradually amplifies while remaining nearly
stationary, centered over the Central US. A pair of deep low
pressure systems swinging across the Northeast US and Canadian
Maritimes weaken the Bermuda high some, but the surface ridge axis
is forecast to remain north of Florida. There is potential for a
tropical wave currently near the Leeward Islands (the remnants of
Dolly) to pass close to East Central Florida later in the week.
The National Hurricane Center has a low (10%) of tropical
development over the next 7 days, and at the moment the primary
impacts would be increased rip current hazards, and delivering
additional moisture. Afternoon rain chances will remain above
normal, and chances will linger into the overnights. Temperatures
may creep up a degree or two, and while highs will remain
seasonable in the U80s-M90s, that degree or two combined with the
humidity will bring peak afternoon heat indices closer to
advisory criteria later in the week, though forecast HeatRisk
impacts remain largely Minor to Moderate.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 221 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Today-Thursday...Favorable winds and seas for boating, but high
coverage of showers and lightning storms, especially in the
afternoon and evening hours, will continue through the period.
Onshore (ENE-SE) flow persists this week as the ridge axis of the
Bermuda stays positioned north of Florida and the local Atlantic
waters. Wind speeds 5-10 kts, ticking closer to 10 kts in the
afternoons and evenings from sea breeze enhancement. High moisture
will support scattered to numerous onshore moving showers and
lightning storms, and a waterspout or two can`t be ruled out.
Highest rain chances (50-70%) during the daytime periods, with
lingering chances (40-50%) overnight. Seas 1-3 ft, periodically up
to 4 ft well offshore in the Gulf Stream towards mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 650 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

VFR conditions are forecast outside of showers/lightning storms with
onshore flow which will result in multiple rounds of showers/storms.
Light and variable winds will increase from the E at 5-10kts
mainly after 14Z/15Z. VCTS begins at 14Z/15Z for the coastal TAFs &
at 18Z for the inland TAF sites w/ TEMPO & PROB30 groups for TSRA
this aftn/eve. The potential exists for isolated strong storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  76  89  76 /  40  30  50  20
MCO  92  76  92  76 /  60  40  70  20
MLB  89  77  89  77 /  50  20  60  20
VRB  90  76  89  76 /  50  30  60  30
LEE  91  75  92  75 /  60  40  70  20
SFB  91  76  91  76 /  60  30  70  10
ORL  91  76  91  76 /  60  40  70  20
FPR  89  76  89  76 /  60  30  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Fehling