209
FXUS62 KMLB 030613
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
213 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 655 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

- Lingering showers tonight with a low chance of a few storms
  along the Treasure Coast through this evening.

- Cooler on Sunday with a few showers persisting along the
  Treasure Coast.

- Another round of hot temperatures expected by the middle of the
  week. Widespread low to mid 90s are forecast on Wednesday over
  the interior and all areas by Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

The severe weather threat has quickly diminished. We still have
some showers and a few storms over the southern half of the
peninsula. Storm chances (20-40%) look to be confined to the
Treasure Coast this evening where some marginal instability
lingers. The cold front resides north of the district as of 7 pm,
but it will slip southward tonight and bring cooler air over the
area for our Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Today-Tonight... Upper level low pressure across Ontario with axis
extending across the Midwest and into TX will steadily shift
eastward, deepening as it shifts towards the eastern seaboard. At
the surface, a cold front draped across the Deep South and the
Florida panhandle will slowly drop southward across central Florida
through the day and overnight hours. Current guidance shows the
front reaching Lake/Volusia counties by mid afternoon and
continuing to shift southward across ECFL through the day and
overnight hours, pushing into South Florida before daybreak on
Sunday. Locally, the pressure gradient will tighten ahead of the
front as the Florida peninsula is situated between the approaching
cold front to the north and the high pressure across the western
Atlantic to the south. Strong and gusty SW winds of 15-20 mph with
frequent gusts of 30-35 mph will develop by late morning and
continue into the afternoon. A Wind Advisory has been issued for
Brevard/Osceola northward for frequent gusts near 35 mph through 6
PM.

Temperatures will continue to be well above normal today with
near record highs at MLB/VRB/FPR. Afternoon highs will reach the
upper 80s to low 90s across Lake/Volusia counties (due to the high
cloud cover and rain chances), and low to mid 90s everywhere else,
with mid 90s especially across the Space and Treasure Coasts.
Widespread Moderate HeatRisk is forecast, which affects those
sensitive to heat and/or without access to adequate hydration or
cooling. In addition, deep mixing will produce lowest RH values
across the south. Low RH combined with the gusty SW winds and
already dry conditions has prompted a Red Flag Warning from
Osceola/south Brevard to Okeechobee and Treasure coast through 7
PM this evening. Important to note that today will be a very fire
sensitive day across all of EC FL but Red Flag criteria are most
likely to be met across the south. Any new or existing fires will
be capable of spreading rapidly. Any lightning strikes may spark
brush fires that smolder for a day or two before flaring up.

Rain and storm chances return this afternoon along and ahead of the
front. While CAM guidance is in agreement with a faster convective
evolution, there remains some disagreement with exact timing of the
convection. However, current guidance shows the convective band
reaching the northern counties of the CWA by early to mid-afternoon.
Convection is forecast to weaken as it moves southward across ECFL
into this evening and overnight. There is a medium to high (40-70
percent) chance of showers and storms from Orlando metro area
northward, and a low to medium (20-40 percent) chance of showers and
storms southward towards Okeechobee/St. Lucie counties in the
afternoon and evening. Rain chances then increase to 40-70 percent
area wide in the evening and overnight hours as the front continues
to push southward across the local area.

The storm environment will be favorable for strong to severe storms
this afternoon and evening, mainly focused along and north of I 4
but extends across Orlando metro and Brevard/Osceola counties. This
is supported by forecast soundings showing an increase in moisture
(PW values of 1.5-1.9"), cooler temperatures aloft (-10 to -11C at
500mb), sufficient instability (MUCAPE 900-1300 J/kg), ample upper
level shear (50-65 knots), as well as an adequate downdraft
potential (DCAPE around 500-800 J/kg). Stronger storms will be
capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds of 40-60 mph,
hail and even a tornado or two can not be ruled out. The primary
threat continues to be strong to damaging wind gusts with large hail
and a Tornado or two being a secondary threat. If hail does occur,
it will most likely occur in discrete individual supercells, but the
shear may be too strong too allow for this. A Tornado Watch has been
issued for Brevard, Osceola, Orange, Seminole, Lake, and Volusia
counties until 6 PM. The Storm Prediction Center has placed Lake and
Volusia Counties into a Slight risk (level 2/5), with a Marginal
risk (level 1/5) to the south.

Sunday... The aforementioned upper level trough across the eastern
US will continue to push eastward and offshore into the Atlantic
through the day, eventually forming a closed low near Maine/New
Brunswick/Nova Scotia. The cold front located near the southern
Treasure Coast/Southern Florida line near day break will continue to
shift southward through the day. Locally, the pressure gradient will
slacken slightly, causing the NE winds to settle to 10-15 mph with
gusts 20-25 mph possible at times. Scattered to numerous showers and
lightning storms are forecast on Sunday, mainly across the southern
sections, with highest rain chances (70 percent) focused on Martin
county. Considerable clouds and cooler temps will limit the threat
for strong/severe storms. Because of this, the main storm threats
will be frequent lightning, gusty winds of 40-50 mph, and locally
heavy rainfall. This is supported by the GFS forecast PW values
being around 2.0" across the southern CWA with drier air forecast to
filter in across the north behind the front (PW values 1.2-1.5").
Temperatures will be below normal with highs in the mid to upper
70s, except low 80s across Lake county. Overnight lows will be near
to slightly below normal, with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s across
the north, and low to mid 60s across the south.

Monday-Saturday... Ridging aloft will stay in place through the
period, sliding southward into late week as an upper level low
across the Midwest swings into the NE by Friday, and up into Canada
by Saturday. At the surface, high pressure extending from the Gulf
Coast States across the Southeast U.S will weaken into mid-week,
shifting seaward into the western Atlantic. The next frontal
boundary will then drop southward into the Deep South by mid/late
week, pushing southward across the Florida peninsula on Friday. High
pressure will then build across the Florida peninsula behind the
front on Saturday. Locally, onshore flow (E/SE) will prevail through
Wednesday, becoming gusty each afternoon behind the east coast sea
breeze. Winds will then turn westerly on Thursday ahead of the
front, north/northeast on Friday behind the front, and easterly on
Saturday.

Lingering moisture from the stalled front over South Florida/
Straits of Florida will keep a low (20 percent) chance of showers
across Martin and St. Lucie Counties on Monday. Otherwise, mostly
dry conditions forecast through mid week. Rain and storm chances
return Thursday as the next frontal boundary approaches the local
area. There is a low to medium (20-30 percent) chance of rain and
storms Thursday and Friday as the front moves southward across the
area. Temperatures will be on a warming trend through the period,
with afternoon highs soaring into the low to mid 90s by mid week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Today-Wednesday... Deteriorating boating conditions today as a cold
front approaches and pushes southward across the area through the
day into Sunday. Southwest winds will generally be at 15-20 KT today
over the offshore waters, especially south of Sebastian Inlet , with
a period of near 20 KT offshore in the afternoon ahead of the front.
Winds then shift out of the north tonight into Sunday behind the
front, then out of the northeast Sunday night/Monday as an elongated
high pressure to the north builds over the area. Wind speeds will be
15-20 KT behind the front, decreasing to 10-15 KT Monday. Winds veer
east to southeast on Tuesday and Wednesday around 10 KT as the ridge
axis approaches the area. Seas build 3-5 ft today before building to
4-6 ft Sunday. Seas begin to subside slightly on Monday, with seas 3-
5 ft before decreasing further to 3-4 ft area wide Tuesday and
Wednesday. Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms
(chances up to 70 percent) will accompany the frontal passage this
afternoon into Sunday, decreasing Sunday night, with isolated to
scattered showers and storms (chances 20-30 percent) remaining
possible south of Ft Pierce Inlet Monday and Tuesday. Dry conditions
forecast Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 153 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

CIGs have dropped to MVFR with TEMPO IFR near the weakening frontal
boundary along and north of the I-4 corridor, including KMCO, and
approaching KTIX-KMLB. -RA also occurring near the front
producing occasional MVFR VIS reductions. Boundary will slowly sag
south through the night reaching KVRB-KSUA through 09Z, and stall
just south. CIGs should improve to VFR from KMCO-KTIX north by
11Z, but are likely to linger at KVRB-KSUA through the day. KMLB
right on the line and most likely to go VFR by around 14Z, but
CIGs may occasionally drop to MVFR through the day. -SHRA will
continue INVOF KVRB-KSUA through the day as well, with mainly dry
conditions at the rest of the ECFL terminals. Winds W 5-10 kts
shift NNW behind the front through the early morning, then shift
NE and increase a bit to 8-13 kts with gusts to around 20 kts in
the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 655 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

RH values have improved such that the Red Flag Warning was
discontinued this evening. On Sunday, somewhat drier air filters
over the northern parts of Central Florida with afternoon RHs in
the upper 30s to mid 40s north of I-4. In fact, RHs will continue
to dip into the mid 30s to mid 40s over the interior through early
this week. Combined with NE to E winds of 6-12 mph, sensitive fire
weather conditions will remain possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  63  80  64 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  80  64  83  65 /  10   0  10   0
MLB  78  68  80  69 /  20  10  10  10
VRB  78  67  80  68 /  40  30  20  10
LEE  81  61  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  80  62  83  64 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  81  64  84  65 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  78  67  80  67 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Heil
AVIATION...Haley