131
FXUS62 KMLB 231012
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
612 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

- A HIGH Risk of deadly rip currents and rough surf will persist
  at area beaches this weekend. Do not enter the Ocean!

- Offshore flow and a moist airmass will continue high rain
  chances (~80%) this weekend.

- Poor boating conditions will linger over the gulf stream waters
  this weekend, with hazardous conditions near inlets during the
  outgoing tide.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Today-Sunday...High rain chances (~80 percent) continue into this
weekend as a moist airmass (PW values 2.0-2.3") remains across the
area, south of a stalled front across north Florida. Numerous
showers and storms will develop and shift eastward across central
Florida and offshore each day as trough aloft continues an unsettled
pattern. HREF guidance has been pretty persistent indicating earlier
development of showers and storms near to north of Orlando into the
morning hours today, with increasing coverage of this activity
through the early to mid afternoon. Convection should then largely
shift offshore through late afternoon and early evening, but some
lingering light debris cloud rainfall as well as some additional
developing showers and storms may persist past sunset. A similar
pattern looks to setup into Sunday. A few stronger storms will still
be possible each day, producing frequent lightning strikes, gusty
winds up to 40-50 mph and heavy downpours. Locally heavy rainfall of
1-3" will be possible with heavier showers and storms, and any
repeated rounds of heavy rainfall may lead to mostly minor flooding
issues of roadways and poor drainage areas. A Marginal Risk of
excessive rainfall persists near to NW of I-4 today and north of
Treasure Coast/Okeechobee County Sunday.

Higher rain chances and increasing cloud cover through the day is
forecast to limit highs to the upper 80s to low 90s. The very humid
conditions should still lead to peak heat index values up to 100-105
degrees ahead of developing showers and storms. Muggy conditions
will continue overnight with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Monday-Friday...Stalled front north of the area is forecast to
gradually settle southward across the area through mid to late week.
Rain chances look to generally remain near to above normal for much
of the area through the work week as the weak front and a moist
airmass continues across the area. Rain chances generally range
around 60-70 percent each day, but some drier air may be able to
build in briefly north of the front, lowering PoPs to around 50
percent north of Orlando Tuesday and Wednesday. Offshore flow will
gradually weaken through early next week and eventually become
onshore by mid to late week, which will begin to focus greatest
coverage of showers and storms inland during the afternoon/early
evening hours.

Highs will be near to slightly above normal, mostly in the low 90s
Monday-Wednesday, but may reach as high as the mid 90s inland on
Tuesday. As rain chances ramp back up into late week as a mid to
upper level trough builds back southward across the area, highs are
forecast to drop back to the upper 80s to low 90s Thursday and
Friday. Lows will continue in the low to mid 70s each night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Today-Sunday...Poor boating conditions will continue over the gulf
stream waters this weekend for lingering long period (12-14sec)
swells up to 6 feet. These swells will also make for hazardous
conditions near inlets during the outgoing tide. Otherwise, seas
will be 3-5 feet closer to the coast. Offshore winds will continue
as stalled front across north Florida keeps the ridge axis south of
the region. Winds will generally be out of the west-southwest around
5-10 knots today and up to 10-15 knots tonight into Sunday.

A wet pattern will continue with numerous offshore moving showers
and storms, mainly into the afternoon and through early evening, but
some earlier offshore moving storms will be possible in the morning
hours north of the Cape. Storms will be capable of producing strong
wind gusts near or in excess of 34 knots and occasional to frequent
lightning strikes.

Monday-Wednesday...Swells will gradually decrease through early to
mid week, with seas falling to 3-5 feet Monday, 2-4 feet Tuesday,
and 2-3 feet Wednesday. W/SW winds continue into Monday into Tuesday
morning, but as offshore flow begins to decrease, winds become
onshore into Tuesday afternoon with the developing sea breeze. Front
is then forecast to settle southward into central FL by midweek,
which should lead to light northerly flow north of the front
becoming onshore with the sea breeze. Wind speeds throughout the
period remain below 15 knots. Scattered to numerous offshore moving
storms will continue through at least early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 612 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

It`s a rather low-confidence forecast when it comes to timing of
today`s showers and storms. We already have showers on the Gulf
Coast of FL, and this activity should pick up in intensity by late
morning and the afternoon, moving eastward and giving the Orlando
area terminals high chances for storms between 15-19Z before
reaching the coast 16-21Z. Hopefully will be able to tighten those
windows a bit more as trends are assessed. Few gusts to 30-25 KT
in strongest storms. Prevailing VFR with SW winds up to 10 KT
today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  75  89  75 /  80  40  80  30
MCO  89  75  90  75 /  80  40  80  20
MLB  91  75  91  75 /  80  40  80  30
VRB  92  74  92  73 /  80  40  80  30
LEE  87  76  87  75 /  80  40  80  30
SFB  89  76  89  75 /  80  40  80  20
ORL  89  76  89  76 /  80  40  80  20
FPR  92  73  92  72 /  80  40  80  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Heil