567
FXUS62 KMLB 051815
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
215 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

- Hazy skies this afternoon due to the Saharan Air Layer (SAL).

- Hot and very humid conditions are expected from this weekend into
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Current-Tonight...Hazy conditions with considerable cloudy skies for
most. Still warm with seasonal highs in the U80s to around 90F.
Combined with relative humidity expect peak heat indices into the
U90s with a few L100s possible. Surface high pressure slowly pushes
further seaward, with associated ridge axis aligning across south-
central FL. A weakening shortwave impulse traverses north FL later
today and tonight and will aid to enhance convection later this
afternoon and evening. Highest chances ~70pct across the I-4
corridor where moisture is greatest and lowest chances 30-50pct
southward. Warmer temperatures aloft (-6C to -7C) will limit
instability and promote weaker lapse rates. Still cannot rule out a
strong storm or two, with primary storm impacts occasional to
frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds 35-50 mph, and torrential
downpours. Greatest storm potential late afternoon thru mid evening.
Showers will dissipate thru mid to late evening and push off of the
coast with mainly dry conditions across land overnight.

Southerly winds up to 10 mph will "back" to ESE/SE along the coast
with minimal movement inland as the WCSB will be dominant with the
deeper WRLY flow. Speeds increasing to 10-15 mph in association with
the ECSB across coastal counties.

Conditions humid with overnight mins generally in the U60s to L70s,
and possible M70s for barrier islands.

Fri-Sun...Slightly Modified...The Atlantic ridge axis drifts
southward into southern Florida this weekend, while mid/upper
level high pressure develops over southern Texas and spreads
eastward across the Gulf. Light southwesterly flow will lead to a
more dominant west coast sea breeze, and therefore a collision
over the favored eastern half of the peninsula. However, continued
warmth in the mid-levels (as warm as -5C) and poor lapse rates
above 3km should continue to limit overall convection, despite the
collision, steepening low-level lapse rates, and continued high
PWATs. Continue to undercut the aggressive NBM PoP numbers through
Sunday. The occasional strong wind gust will remain possible,
should a storm be able to take advantage of drier air aloft,
though CAPE values in general are expected to be fairly low for a
typical hot Florida day. Highest chances will remain in the
afternoon and early evening, with any convection drifting offshore
through the evening hours.

Hot temperatures forecast late week into this weekend, especially
should convection be surpressed. High temperatures are forecast in
the lower 90s area-wide, with southwesterly flow limiting the inland
progression of the east coast sea breeze for relief. Continued humid
conditions will produce peak heat indices into the 100-106 degree
range. Be sure to include heat safety into any weekend outdoor
plans. Never leave children or pets unattended in a car for ANY
period of time. Overnight lows are forecast in the lower to mid-70s
with conditions humid.

Mon-Thu...Modified...The surface high pressure ridge axis remains
entrenched over southern Florida into next week, but does weaken
and begins to lift northward as the parent high pressure cell
weakens and pushes further seaward. There will be a few passing
upper-level shortwaves north of the local area, though mid-level
high pressure does strengthen and retrogrades toward the FL
peninsula from the western Atlc. Slightly cooler mid-level
temperatures, combined with modest upper-level support, are
forecast to lead to a gradual increase in shower and storm
coverage (again capped at 70pct). Weak storm steering flow will
increase the threat for locally heavy rainfall. Hot temperatures
continue through the period. Heat indices will remain a concern,
especially Tuesday, with forecast values approaching Advisory
criteria.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Afternoon-Mon...Generally favorable boating conditions through
early next week, as high pressure centered over the western Atlc
with associated ridge axis near the local waters. The main threat
continues to be scattered to numerous offshore-moving showers and
lightning storms in the late afternoon and evening hours. South
to southwesterly flow will "back" southeasterly along the coast
each afternoon and increase to 10-15 kts as the sea breeze
develops. Seas 1-3 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

SCT/BKN 030-050 with higher level clouds are over most terminals
this afternoon. SSW winds around 10-15 kt continue with occasional
gusts up to 20 kt. TSRA is forecast to develop after 19z, mainly
from LEE to DAB, extending south to SFB/MCO/ISM. Coverage of TSRA
at TIX/MLB is less certain, though TEMPOs were preserved there for
now. Gusts to 35+ kt, lightning, and torrential RA will result in
brief MVFR/IFR conds where TSRA moves over a site. Generally drier
conditions resume after 01-02z with light, VRB wind.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  90  72  92 /  50  60  10  60
MCO  73  92  74  93 /  40  70  10  60
MLB  74  89  74  91 /  30  60  20  60
VRB  72  90  73  91 /  20  50  20  60
LEE  73  91  74  91 /  30  70  10  60
SFB  72  93  74  94 /  40  70  10  60
ORL  74  92  75  93 /  40  70  10  60
FPR  72  89  72  90 /  20  40  20  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Schaper