615
FXUS62 KMLB 050920
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
420 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 420 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

- Areas of dense fog present along the coast and across portions
  of the interior early this morning.

- Potential for dense fog will continue each night and early
  morning through late week.

- Temperatures will remain warmer than normal, with mostly dry
  conditions through this week and weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 420 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

Current...Based on surface observations, traffic cameras, and
satellite imagery, fog development has been most prominent across
the coastal counties this morning, with visibilities down as low
as one quarter of a mile in spots. Coverage across the interior
has not been quite as impressive, though there is still the
potential for fog to develop thanks to the favorable environment.
A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for Brevard, Orange,
Seminole, and coastal Volusia. If driving, be prepared to
encounter visibility reductions in some spots. Be sure to slow
down, use only low beam headlights, and leave plenty of following
distance between vehicles. Visibilities should generally improve
late this morning, though stratus may linger into the afternoon
hours.

Today-Tonight...A weak area of high pressure is forecast to remain
in place across east central Florida today, with conditions
forecast to remain dry. Light and variable winds persist this
morning. As mentioned earlier, lingering stratus will be possible
in spots this morning, with guidance indicating that cloud
coverage thins out into the afternoon. Once this occurs,
temperatures are forecast to warm quickly, with highs reaching the
low to mid 80s. This temperature gradient between the peninsula
and the local Atlantic waters is expected to trigger the
development of a weak sea breeze, with the sea breeze moving
inland and causing winds to become easterly around 5 mph. Winds
then become southerly and light overnight, with patchy to areas
of fog forecast to develop across east central Florida once again.
There is less confidence in widespread development based on model
disagreement, but current HREF guidance has a 40 to 60 percent
chance of visibilities less than one mile south of the Orlando
metro. Will continue to monitor and adjust the forecast as needed.
Dry into the overnight hours, with overnight lows in the low to
mid 60s.

Thursday-Tuesday...The weather pattern is forecast to persist
through this weekend, with weak high pressure remaining stationed
across the western Atlantic. Rain chances through at least Sunday
remain below 10 percent. The next best chance for any rain looks
to be on Monday as a cold front approaches north Florida and then
proceeds to stall into Tuesday. There are rather large
discrepancies between global solutions this far out, so stuck with
the NBM as a safe middle ground, with only about a 20% chance of
rain highlighted across northern portions of east central Florida.
Predominantly south winds on Thursday become light and variable
on Friday before becoming southerly once again into the weekend.
During the afternoons, a weak sea breeze may develop as a result
of the temperature gradient, causing winds to become east-
southeast as the circulation progresses inland. Highs remain above
normal in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with lows in the upper 50s to
mid 60s. Fog development will continue to be possible each evening
into the early morning hours, with visibility reductions of a mile
or less possible in some spots. Be sure to monitor the forecast if
planning on driving through the area during the overnight hours,
and always use safe driving techniques.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 420 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

Weak high pressure remains stationed across the western Atlantic
through the remainder of this week and into the weekend, keeping
boating conditions generally favorable. Winds are forecast to
remain light and variable today, becoming easterly in the
afternoon as a weak sea breeze develops and moves inland.
Thursday, southerly winds 10 to 15 knots develop, becoming light
and variable once again on Friday, and then southerly around 10
knots over the weekend. Seas remain between 2 to 3 feet through
the rest of the week into this weekend, with some 4 foot seas
possible across the offshore waters. Rain chances remain below 10
percent thanks to the area of high pressure.

The main concern for boaters over the next few days will be the
development of sea fog early evening through the morning hours.
This morning, a Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect through 12 PM
today for visibility reductions of one nautical mile or less
across the Volusia waters and nearshore Brevard waters. Conditions
will likely be slow to improve, with some lingering fog and
stratus possible into this afternoon. Visibility reductions are
forecast yet again tonight into early Thursday morning. With the
current set-up persisting across the waters over the next few
days, sea fog will continue to be possible through the end of the
week and into the weekend, with the Volusia waters and nearshore
Brevard having the best chances for development.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1234 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

LIFR/IFR conditions continue to spread across the area as of
around midnight. The worst of the conditions continue to be at
TIX/MLB, with sub-VFR conditions expected across east central
Florida by sunrise. Low CIGs/VIS are forecast to improve after
around 15Z, though they could linger at TIX/MLB through 17Z. S/SE
winds under 10kts prevailing Wednesday afternoon, with additional
fog possible after around 3Z at MLB/TIX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  80  61  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  83  64  83  61 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  80  63  80  60 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  82  63  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  83  62  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  83  63  84  60 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  83  64  84  62 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  81  62  81  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for FLZ045-046-
     141-247-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ550-552-570.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Leahy