498
FXUS62 KMLB 041357
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
957 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

- Repeated rounds of rain and storms today pose a Marginal Risk
  for localized flooding, especially over urban areas.

- Hazy skies will be possible late today and into Thursday due to
  an incoming Saharan Air Layer (SAL).

- Hot and very humid conditions are expected from this weekend into
  early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Weak surface disturbance over Florida remains poorly organized as
it gradually lifts north. Updated PoPs with latest guidance, since
hi-res models aren`t doing very well after 6 hours. Low confidence
where and when showers and storms will develop, but can continue
to expect rounds throughout the day, with the highest chances from
the late morning into the evening, then gradually (and finally)
decreasing overnight. Morning soundings from TBW and XMR show a
very saturated atmosphere with warm mid-levels, supporting heavy
rainfall but not so much storms. Primary threat remains locally
heavy rainfall amounts of 2-3", occasional cloud to ground
lightning, and gusty winds.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Today-Tonight... A weak surface boundary analyzed offshore
northeast Florida slowly lifts northward today. Deep moisture
(PWAT ~2-2.2) advects into central Florida as southerly flow
develops. CAMs suggest a wave of showers moving north-
northeastward across the area by sunrise, making for a sloppy
morning commute across southern portions of the forecast area.
There looks to be a break in rainfall by late morning with some
uncertainty in how widespread coverage may become into the
afternoon and evening. Warm temperatures at 500 mb (~-7 C), poor
mid-level lapse rates, and limited surface heating should limit
any strong storm potential. However, occasional rumbles of thunder
cannot be ruled out. While area total rainfall averages remain
less than 1, localized accumulations of 2-3 inches will be
possible where repeated rounds of rainfall may occur. Primary
hazards include ponding of water on roadways and minor flooding of
urban/ low lying areas. High temperatures are forecast in the low
80s under mostly cloudy skies.

A layer of Saharan dust moves into portions of south and central
Florida late this evening and into tonight. Global model soundings
suggest a dry layer developing in the low levels below 700mb
potentially settling closer to the surface by early Thursday
morning. Based on earlier observations across portions of the
Caribbean, cannot rule out minor surface visibility reductions
through parts of the day Thursday.

Thursday-Friday... A weak area of low pressure lifts along the
southeastern sea board through late week. As the low departs, a
surface ridge axis stretches across the western Atlantic and over
the Florida peninsula. South to southwest flow keeps high moisture
in place with modeled PWATs around 1.8-2. Global ensemble
members continue high coverage of showers Thursday, perhaps
decreasing a tad in coverage on Friday. Isolated lightning storms
will be possible each day, dominantly driven by surface
instability and mesoscale boundary collisions. However, continued
warm temperatures aloft and weak shear should generally limit
overall stronger storm development through the period. Will
continue to monitor for localized flooding of urban and low-lying
areas where repeated rounds of rainfall occur. High temperatures
mostly in mid to upper 80s on Thursday warm to reach the low 90s
across the interior on Friday.

Saturday-Tuesday... The surface ridge axis becomes further
established across east central Florida through the weekend and
into early next week. Southwest flow should generally favor a west
coast sea breeze regime, keeping the east coast breeze closer to
the coast each afternoon. Sufficient moisture remains in place,
although models hint at a brief period of drier air building in
vicinity of the I-4 corridor early Saturday (PWAT ~ 1.5-1.6).
Current trends suggest scattered rain chances peaking late each
afternoon. Steepening low level lapse rates favor at least an
isolated lightning storm threat each day. A warming trend is
forecast through the period with highs reaching the low to mid 90s
across the interior.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

A weak surface disturbance over Florida and the local Atlantic
waters will continue to slowly lift north today, largely departing
the area by Thursday. Prior to that, small craft should exercise
caution in the Gulf Stream for southerly winds 15-20 kts today,
before winds ease to 10-15 kts tonight. High pressure over the
Atlantic builds back towards Florida in the wake of this system,
with the ridge axis eventually settling south of Central Florida
by late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 740 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Deep tropical moisture continues over east central FL today with
impulses forecast in the SSW flow aloft. Expect multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms with an earlier start for Treasure Coast
terminals by late morning into early afternoon and by mid afternoon
for the KMCO vcnty and the KLEE-KDAB corridor. Moderate to heavy
rain will reduce vsbys with mainly MVFR CIGs with tstms. Have added
TEMPO TSRA groups starting first at KSUA and later for KLEE-DAB and
Orlando area terminals. By late evening convection should diminish
with mainly mid level VFR CIGs overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  71  88  72 /  60  40  70  30
MCO  81  72  89  73 /  60  40  60  30
MLB  83  74  87  74 /  60  40  50  20
VRB  84  73  88  73 /  60  30  40  20
LEE  82  72  88  74 /  60  40  60  20
SFB  82  72  89  73 /  60  40  70  30
ORL  82  72  89  74 /  60  40  60  30
FPR  84  73  88  73 /  60  30  40  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Haley
AVIATION...Volkmer