977
FXUS62 KMLB 011801
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
201 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

- Hazardous heat continues today. A Heat Advisory has once again
  been issued for all of East Central Florida today, from noon to
  7 PM, for peak heat indices up to 110 degrees.

- Increasing rain chances, especially Monday onward offer some
  relief the heat, but hot and humid conditions with peak heat
  indices around 107 continue each afternoon.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Today-Tonight...The mid-level ridge over Florida breaks down and
shifts west as the axis of broad troughing over the eastern US
shifts towards the Atlantic seaboard. A low pressure system drawn
out from the Deep South to the Atlantic seaboard will keep the
ridge axis of the Bermuda High suppressed to our south, continuing
light offshore flow. Between morning temperatures starting off in
the sultry M70s-80, weak subsidence from the ridge aloft, and
offshore flow bringing inland-baked air across ECFL, temperatures
will quickly return to the 90s by noon, topping out in the L-M90s
in the late afternoon, including along the coast before the sea
breeze develops. Combined with humidity, especially in the initial
surge of the sea breeze, peak afternoon heat indices up to 110
are once again expected across all East Central Florida, and the
Heat Advisory has been expanded to include all counties from noon
until 7 PM.

PWATs remain around 1.8-2.0", highest in a band draped along and
south of the I-4 corridor, but a subtle increase in 850-700mb
moisture and less subsidence than previous days will support
higher coverage of showers and lightning storms, especially in the
higher moisture band. The sea breezes develop around 1 PM, with
the west coast breeze faster and more diffuse while the east coast
breeze is slowed by the offshore flow, resulting in a collision
across the eastern interior of the peninsula around 6 PM.
Initially isolated showers and lightning storms are expected to
pop up pretty quickly after the sea breezes develop, with outflow
initiating additional convection and gradually increasing coverage
through the afternoon and evening, becoming scattered to numerous
along the sea breeze collision around 6 PM. Copious instability
will be available (MUCAPE 2,000-4,000 J/kg and even MLCAPE upwards
of 3,000 J/kg), and while mid-level lapse rates are a bit muted
(less than 6 C/km) by warm mid-levels (T500 around -6C), low-level
lapse rates remain steep (+7-8 C/km), supporting very fast
updraft development. A little more moisture in the mid-upper
levels has brought DCAPE down (800-900 J/kg compared to well over
1,000 J/kg previous days), but this will likely result in more
updrafts surviving the upward journey, and more strong storms
capable of gusty winds 40-50 mph, and a few locally damaging gusts
to 60 mph can`t be ruled out. In addition to gusty winds,
frequent cloud to ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall will
also accompany the strongest storms. Boundary interactions could
produce slow/erratic storm motion, resulting in a quick 1-3" of
rainfall, which may lead to minor flooding.

Saturday-Monday...Ridging aloft continues to break down and shift
westward in response to broad troughing over the eastern US and a
few shortwaves moving through the pattern. The weakening frontal
boundary from the low pressure system ejecting from the Mid
Atlantic Seaboard settles into North Florida, while the ridge axis
of the Bermuda high gradually shifts towards central Florida.
PWATs remain 1.8-2.0" Saturday, supporting scattered to numerous
showers and storms, then surge to 2" or more across much of East
Central Florida Sunday and Monday as moisture convergence in
southwesterly to southerly flow increases along the frontal
boundary, supporting numerous showers and storms, except along
the Treasure Coast where slightly lower moisture and a quicker sea
breeze keeps chances a little lower. Strong lightning storms
capable of gusty winds, deadly cloud to ground lightning, and
torrential downpours will be possible each day. Widespread
rainfall amounts are generally around an inch, but locations that
get repeated rounds of heavy rainfall could see locally higher
amounts. There is potential for a disturbance to develop on the
boundary to our northeast, as is often the case with these
stalled fronts and high moisture, but with the position of the
ridge axis anything that tries to develop should get kicked
eastward into the open Atlantic.

Hot and humid conditions continue Saturday, and while confidence
in reaching Heat Advisory conditions is low thanks to slightly
lower temperatures as the ridging aloft moves away and cloud cover
increases, highs will still reach the L-M90s which combined with
subtly lower humidity, will still result in heat indices up to
around 107 degrees, with a few spots possibly reaching 108, and
one last Heat Advisory for some portions of ECFL can`t be ruled
out. We shave off another degree or two from highs Sunday and
Monday, but peak heat indices remain between 101-107, and one or
two spots hitting 108 remain possible.

Tuesday-Thursday...Above normal rain chances remain in the
forecast as weak southerly flow around a long drawn out Bermuda
High ridge axis continues to pile moisture up against the stalled
frontal boundary over North Florida. Increasing cloud cover and
rain chances will keep us generally below Heat Advisory criteria,
but conditions remain hot and humid with heat indices up to 107
across much of the area, and the continued chance for one or two
spots to briefly hit 108.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions through early next week.
The ridge axis of the Atlantic high will remain south of the area
through the weekend, continuing southwesterly flow turning
southerly in the afternoon and evening with the sea breeze
circulation. Seas 1-3 ft. The ridge axis then lifts north towards
Central Florida early next week, shifting winds more southerly
which become southeasterly with the sea breeze circulation. There
is potential for a disturbance to develop along a frontal boundary
stalled across north Florida, and while this feature is forecast
to remain well north of the local Atlantic waters, increasing
swell is forecast to build seas to 3-5 ft. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms are forecast to develop over the waters each
day, especially during the morning and overnight hours. However,
because of the weak offshore steering flow, some storms may push
back toward the coast and just offshore during the afternoon and
evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 155 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Scattered TSRA have developed along the sea breeze boundary
between TIX-MLB and these will develop inland and southward
through 00Z-01Z. Sea breeze will produce a wind shift at DAB by
21Z with possible TEMPO AMD there. Have inserted a TEMPO for MCO
18Z-21Z with VCTS continuing thru 01Z. Outflow boundaries from
SHRA may produce tempo WNW to NW wind shifts at MCO this
afternoon. On Sat, convective coverage looks lower, so went with a
PROB30 at MCO aft 18Z (vs VCTS). E-SE wind shift assocd with the
sea breeze will develop Sat from TIX-SUA btwn 16Z-18Z even though
it is not explicitly indicated (yet) in the latest TAF package.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  93  77  92 /  10  60  40  70
MCO  78  95  78  95 /  20  60  20  60
MLB  78  93  77  93 /  20  60  30  50
VRB  75  93  74  93 /  10  50  20  40
LEE  78  93  77  94 /  10  60  30  70
SFB  78  95  78  94 /  10  60  30  70
ORL  79  95  78  95 /  20  60  30  60
FPR  74  93  74  93 /  20  50  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-
     058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Kelly