187
FXUS62 KMLB 200058
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
858 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

- High Risk of rip currents this evening at area beaches. Poor
  boating conditions in the Gulf Stream.

- Sensitive fire weather conditions and little to no
  precipitation chances are forecast to persist through next week.

- Warming trend into next week, with highs in the 90s across the
  interior by mid-week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 829 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Another quiet evening with the KMLB radar showing a few very light
returns over the Atlantic waters. Surface observations at 8 PM
show temperatures are in the low to mid 70s with ESE/SE winds at
5-10 mph over the interior and 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph
along the coast. A few high and low level clouds are streaming
overhead, otherwise, mostly clear skies. High pressure over the
western Atlantic will remain in place tonight with the axis
spreading across the Florida peninsula. Drier air (forecast PW
values of 0.6-0.7") will continue to support dry conditions across
the local area tonight, with no mentionable rain chances. SE
winds will prevail through the overnight hours, with winds 5-10
mph (generally around 10 mph along the coast). Temperatures will
be mild once again, with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s .

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...Windy, dry, and warming up. A tightening
pressure gradient across Florida between elongated high pressure
off the southeast seaboard and enhancement from the sea breeze is
producing wind gusts of 25-30 mph, a bit higher than previously
forecast. This is in line with LAMP guidance, so have bumped up
forecast winds to match. Expect gusty conditions to continue
through around 6 PM, then settle as down fairly quickly in the
late evening as we lose daytime heating, and subsequently the sea
breeze and mixing. Onshore flow continues to mitigate very dry
conditions from persistent high pressure, but still expect low
humidity which combined with the winds will continue sensitive to
near-critical fire weather conditions, especially across the
western interior. Temperatures remain around normal along the
coast in onshore flow, but inland are starting to creep up above
normal as subsidence from high pressure aloft increases. A few
sprinkles had managed to develop over the Atlantic waters of the
Treasure Coast thanks to a slug of slightly higher moisture, but
this feature has pushed well west and judging by the anemic cloud
field even over the waters, has taken any chance of water falling
from the sky with it, so only the silent 10 pct rain chance in the
forecast.

Sunday-Next Week...(Modified Previous Discussion) High pressure
continues over the western Atlantic through at least mid-week,
while slowly drifting towards the Florida peninsula. Dry
conditions persist, as do fire weather concerns. Daily sea breezes
will enhance onshore flow in the afternoons. However, by Tuesday,
even onshore flow will struggle to provide relief from increasing
temperatures as high pressure builds aloft. Heat looks to become
an increasing concern, as temperatures become above normal. Highs
are forecast to reach the upper 80s west of Orlando by Sunday.
Then, lower 90s are expected early next week for most of the
interior, with mid-80s along the coast. A few record highs could
be threatened, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows in
the 60s.

By late week, the ridge manages to repel any frontal passages.
However, it is forecast to be weakened by a passing upper level
shortwave mid-week, shifting the surface high northeastward away
from the local area. Generally dry conditions persist, though a
slight chance (~20%) for showers returns to the forecast late week
into the weekend along and offshore from the Treasure Coast, with
the ridge axis once again north of the area. Hot afternoon highs
in the mid-80s to lower 90s are expected to continue into next
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Elongated high pressure off the southeastern seaboard gradually
weakens as the center shifts towards the area Monday, then pushes
offshore Tuesday reinforcing broad high pressure across the
Atlantic basin, which becomes the primary driver of marine
conditions the second half of the week. The ridge axis of these
high pressure areas remain generally north of the local Atlantic
waters, continuing easterly to southeasterly flow through the
weekend and next week. Poor boating conditions in the Gulf Stream
waters off the Treasure Coast from fresh easterly winds and
choppy seas continue through early Sunday, and small craft should
continue to exercise caution. Winds then ease becoming moderate
to gentle as the pressure gradient loosens from the weakening/
departing high pressure. Seas 3-5 ft subside a bit after Sunday to
2-4 ft, but could remain choppy especially in the Gulf Stream.
Some brief sprinkles are possible, but otherwise generally dry
conditions continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 734 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Breezy and gusty conditions
this afternoon and early evening are once again forecast for
Sunday. ESE/SE winds 10-15 KT with gusts to 20-25 KT this evening
will decrease to 10 KT or less over the interior, and generally around
10 KT along the coast tonight. ESE/SE winds will pick back up to
around 15 KT by mid morning on Sunday with gusts 20-25 KT. Winds
are then forecast to subside to 08-12KT by 22/23Z on Sunday,
eventually subsiding to 5-10 KT Sunday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Rest of Today...Near Red Flag conditions over the interior,
especially Lake County this afternoon as onshore winds did indeed
over perform, coming in at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph, and
RHs drop to 35-45%. A few spots may briefly reach Red Flag
criteria in the next couple hours, from 3 PM to 5 PM, then
conditions improve as RH recover.

Sunday Onward...Southeast winds relax slightly, but remain 10-15
mph, with gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Min RH continues
between 35-45% over the interior counties and 45-55% for coastal
areas. Very Good to Excellent dispersion each day. Very similar
conditions look to continue through early next week, with
increasing heat concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  82  65  83 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  64  86  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  68  81  67  82 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  66  82  66  82 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  63  88  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  62  86  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  64  86  66  88 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  66  82  66  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Watson
AVIATION...Watson