846
FXUS62 KMLB 171109
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
709 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

- An active weather pattern is forecast through the remainder of
  this week and into the next, with scattered to numerous showers
  and storms anticipated through at least Monday.

- Storm hazards will include lightning strikes, gusty winds, and
  heavy downpours. Minor, localized flooding will also be possible
  in some locations.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast across
  east central Florida through next week, with peak heat indices
  exceeding 100F areawide. Practice heat safety if spending
  extended periods of time outdoors!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Today-Tonight...Mid and surface level high pressure will weaken
across east central Florida today, with troughing beginning to
develop across western Florida and the eastern Gulf. This set-up
will translate to light and variable winds areawide today along
with increasing moisture locally. The east and west coast sea
breezes are forecast to develop, with weak flow aloft allowing for
easy intrusion inland through this afternoon. Isolated to
scattered shower and storm development ahead of and along the sea
breezes will be possible early this afternoon, primarily after 12
PM. A sea breeze collision is favored across the central
peninsula, with peak coverage of showers and storms forecast to
occur after 2 PM. The environment appears supportive for strong
storm development with this activity. SBCAPE values ranging from
2000-2700 J/kg, steep low level lapse rates, DCAPE ranging from
700-1000 J/kg, and 500 mb temperatures of -8 to -7C will support
frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 55 mph, and even
small hail within the strongest storms. Additionally, weak
steering flow combined with PWATs exceeding 2" areawide will
increase the potential for quick rainfall accumulations of 1-3",
with some spots reaching 4" and greater. Minor, localized flooding
will be possible with storms today. Activity is forecast to
gradually diminish into the late evening and overnight hours
across east central Florida, with mostly dry conditions
anticipated after midnight.

Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 90s this afternoon
with peak heat indices of 100-107F. Lows remain in the 70s. At the
beaches, a moderate risk of rip currents continues through today.
Always swim near a lifeguard and never enter the surf alone!

Saturday-Monday...The mid-level low will support development of a
broad surface low across the eastern Gulf and near northwest
Florida on Saturday. The low itself is anticipated to meander near
this area through Monday. NHC has kept a 20% chance of tropical
development across the northeastern Gulf and northern Florida with
this activity. Regardless, the development of the low will lead
to a tightening pressure gradient across east central Florida,
with southerly winds picking up to 10 to 15 mph areawide.
Increasing moisture through the weekend and into early next week
as a result of the southerly flow and the developing low will lead
to scattered to numerous shower and storm chances across the
area, primarily during the afternoon hours each day. WPC also
continues to highlight portions of east central Florida in a
Marginal Risk (1/4) of excessive rainfall on Monday due to
saturated soils and the ongoing active pattern. Shower and storm
activity is forecast to diminish into the overnight hours each
day, with ongoing isolated to scattered showers and storms
possible across the local Atlantic waters each night. Temperatures
are anticipated to remain near to slightly above normal through
this weekend and into Monday, with highs in the low to mid 90s and
lows in the 70s.

Tuesday-Thursday...The mid-level low gradually diminishes into
the middle of next week, causing the low at the surface to weaken
and diminish. Mid-level ridging across the southeastern US will
extend towards the Florida peninsula, with a gradual return of the
broad surface high into the middle of next week. The surface
ridge axis will lift northward across central Florida, keeping
winds generally out of the south outside of the east coast sea
breeze causing winds to become more southeasterly in the
afternoons. As far as shower and storm chances go, there are some
disagreements on how next week will pan out as the low diminishes.
The Euro is indicating drier air moving in across east central
Florida and lower rain chances while the GFS favors moisture
lingering across the area, resulting in higher rain chances. Stuck
with the NBM, which shows 30-50% chances on Tuesday and 20-40%
chances on Wednesday and Thursday. Would not be surprised to see
some back and forth within the forecast as these discrepancies are
worked out over the coming days. Temperatures are anticipated to
trend warmer mid to late week, with greater coverage of mid 90s
for highs forecast Wednesday and Thursday. Lows remain in the 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast to continue
across the local Atlantic waters through today as broad high
pressure continues to weaken, leading to light and variable winds
and seas of generally 1 to 3 feet. Isolated to scattered showers and
storms will be possible, particularly across the nearshore waters
into the late evening hours and across the Gulf Stream waters
overnight. Any storms that develop or move offshore may be capable
of producing lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 34 knots,
heavy downpours, and locally higher seas.

Into this weekend, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop
across the eastern Gulf, leading to a tightening pressure gradient
and increasing southerly winds. Wind speeds increase to 15 to 20
knots across the local waters, with seas generally forecast to
remain between 2 to 4 feet. The low will gradually meander northward
before weakening next week, with persistent southerly winds
anticipated at least through the middle of next week. Seas will
remain between 2 to 4 feet. Scattered showers and storms will
continue to be possible, primarily during the late evening and
overnight hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 623 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Light
southwest flow will become W/WSW and increase to around 5 KT. The
east coast sea breeze will form and push inland this afternoon,
turning the winds onshore behind it and increasing winds to 5-10
KT. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will form this
afternoon into the evening, with the highest coverage across the
interior where the sea breeze collision is forecast to occur. Have
maintained VCTS starting at all terminals at 18Z. Have added
TEMPOs for gusty winds and MVFR conditions for interior sites
starting at 20/21Z and PROB30 along the coast (except for DAB)
starting at 19Z for TIX- MLB and 22/23Z VRB-SUA. Lingering
activity will dissipate or move out of the area by 00/01Z across
the interior and around 02/04Z for the coast. Winds will then
become light and variable once again in the evening and overnight
hours. Winds will become southerly Saturday by mid morning and
increase to 5-10KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  75  92  75 /  40  20  30  10
MCO  93  75  93  76 /  70  30  50  20
MLB  90  76  92  77 /  50  20  40  10
VRB  92  75  92  75 /  40  20  40  20
LEE  92  76  92  76 /  70  40  50  20
SFB  93  76  93  76 /  70  30  50  10
ORL  92  76  93  77 /  70  30  50  10
FPR  92  74  92  74 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Watson