872
FXUS62 KMLB 171334
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
934 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 934 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

- Hot and dry weather persists this weekend and into mid next week
  with above normal to record high temperatures, as well as peak
  heat indices rising to 100-105. Drought conditions are forecast
  to worsen/expand and sensitive fire weather conditions are
  forecast

- There is a Moderate HeatRisk Today to Sunday and a Moderate to
  Major HeatRisk on Monday to Wednesday

- A weak front will bring slim rain chances late next week but a
  change in wind direction will bring somewhat lower (more
  seasonable) temperatures

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 934 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

Local radar imagery shows dry conditions and GOES-16 satellite
imagery shows scattered to broken cirrus clouds over east central.
High pressure (~1016mb) is situated over the eastern Gulf of
America and Florida. Temperatures are currently in the mid 70s to
low 80s with dew points in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Winds are from
the west-southwest at 5-10mph. Dry and hot conditions are expected
today with high pressure over Florida. ECMWF and NAEFS ensembles
indicate temperatures in the 97.5th to maximum percentile for
this time of year this afternoon over east central Florida. Above
normal (~5-10F+) to record high temperatures in the low to mid 90s
with mostly sunny skies are expected. Heat index values between
98-103F are forecast. There is a Moderate HeatRisk for most of
east central Florida today. This level of heat affects most
individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without adequate
hydration or effective cooling. It is recommended that those who
spend extended periods of time outside this afternoon and early
evening to drink plenty of water, wear light- colored clothing,
reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade, and take breaks
in an air conditioned facility.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

Today-Sun...A mid-level ridge (~592dm) centered over the Gulf
will nose E across the FL peninsula and result in continued
subsidence across the area. In the low levels, Atlantic high
pressure ridge axis will remain across south central FL, promoting
a light offshore wind flow to start the day, turning onshore
behind the sea breeze each afternoon. Overall dry, but a slight
uptick in moisture will produce dewpoints a skosh higher day by
day allowing peak heat indices to reach between 100-105. This
means there should be a little more fair weather cumulus
development than previous days but rain chances remain too low to
mention (less than 15 percent). There will continue to be
cirrus/cirrostratus streaming SE. These high clouds will be pretty
thin so they should not affect max temps much but could filter
the sun at times.

Widespread max temps in the mid 90s across interior sections as
well as inland portions of the coastal counties. Coastal Volusia
will again reach the mid 90s since the sea breeze will be
significantly delayed and should not penetrate much inland. This
will put Daytona Beach in a good position to equal (or even
exceed) its record high of 95F today. We`ll also be watching
Sanford approach its record highs both today and Sunday (96F and
95F, respectively). Orlando has a longer period of record so it`s
typically more difficult to set records there but a couple of
longstanding records (both 97F from 1915 and 1930) will be at risk
for a tie.

Mon-Wed...The deep layer ridging will persist producing hot
temperatures and rain chances no higher than 10 percent.
Widespread mid 90s will continue over the interior with a few
upper 90s possible with potential for more record highs to be
equaled or even exceeded. Coastal sections will hold in the lower
90s but there is a better chance for a more delayed sea breeze
along the Volusia coast where the offshore flow is a bit stronger
so Daytona Beach will again approach their record highs on Mon and
Tue (See below). Peak heat indices are forecast to reach 100 to
105 each day just inland from the coast.

Thu-Fri...A weak cool front is forecast to cross the area Thu but
moisture looks meager so rain chances are only 20-30% and where it
does rain amounts should be paltry. High pressure behind the front
will produce a wind shift out of the NE-E. This switch to an
onshore flow will bring down max temps to more seasonable levels,
mid-upper 80s coast and around 90 inland Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

High pressure ridge axis is forecast to remain nearly stationary
across south central Florida, roughly across Lake Okeechobee and
northernmost Bahamas, through the weekend and into early next
week. This pattern will produce largely favorable boating
conditions with a light offshore (W-SW) flow each morning shifting
E-SE increasing 10-14 knots near the coast behind the sea breeze
each afternoon. Seas 1-2 FT through the period except building to
3 FT offshore Tue night/Wed. Chance for rain continues to be very
low during this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 624 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

VFR and dry conditions through the TAF period. Light and variable
winds early this morning will become S/SW and increase to 10-14 KT
by mid morning. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form this
afternoon from TIX southward, backing the winds onshore. Winds
will then become light and variable once again this evening
(00-01Z) before winds become S/SW at 5-8 KT by mid morning Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

Unseasonably hot and dry conditions are forecast to persist this
weekend and early next week. With very low rain chances and
relatively low RH values, soil moisture will continue to decrease.
Min RH values are forecast to fall between 30-35 percent today
and Sunday over the north interior. The west winds are forecast to
remain below 15 mph so conditions will not meet Red Flag. The
offshore winds will turn onshore near the coast in a sea breeze
each afternoon and hold min RH values along the coast south of the
Cape near 50 percent. Dispersion values will be Very Good across
Lake, Volusia, Seminole, Orange and Osceola counties both days
with Fair to Good dispersion across southern and immediate coastal
sections.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 934 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

Record highs today through Wednesday:

DAB 17-May  95 1963
LEE 17-May  96 1991
SFB 17-May  96 2001
MCO 17-May  97 1915
MLB 17-May  97 1963
VRB 17-May  95 2023
FPR 17-May  95 2008

DAB 18-May  97 1995
LEE 18-May  98 1996
SFB 18-May  95 2024
MCO 18-May  97 1930
MLB 18-May  96 1995
VRB 18-May  96 2024
FPR 18-May  98 1995

DAB 19-May  94 1995
LEE 19-May  94 1991
SFB 19-May  97 1960
MCO 19-May  98 1908
MLB 19-May  95 1995
VRB 19-May  95 1995
FPR 19-May  97 1995

DAB 20-May  94 2008
LEE 20-May  95 2017
SFB 20-May  95 2017
MCO 20-May  96 1935
MLB 20-May  95 1980
VRB 20-May  93 2020
FPR 20-May  96 1980

DAB 21-May  97  1998
LEE 21-May  97  1962
SFB 21-May  100 1962
MCO 21-May  98  1908
MLB 21-May  96  1998
VRB 21-May  95  2015
FPR 21-May  97  2008

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  96  69  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  96  73  96  73 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  92  73  90  73 /   0   0  10   0
VRB  93  72  92  72 /   0   0  10   0
LEE  94  72  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  97  71  97  71 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  96  73  96  73 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  92  71  92  72 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Fehling
AVIATION...Watson