606
FXUS62 KMLB 110002
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
802 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all of east central
  Florida through 8 PM for peak heat indices up to 110F.

- Hot conditions will persist through this weekend, with highs in
  the mid to upper 90s and peak heat indices up to 110F possible.
  Additional Heat Advisories cannot be ruled out.

- Rain and storm chances increase through this weekend and into
  early next week as moisture improves across east central
  Florida.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Tonight-Saturday...High pressure at the surface and aloft remains
in place across the Florida peninsula, with the ridge axis draped
across central Florida. This has resulted in southerly flow
locally, which has supported moisture advection northward towards
east central Florida. GOES Total PWAT imagery indicates values of
1.8-2.0" across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County, with
drier air situated northward. The east coast sea breeze has
developed and will continue to push inland through the remainder
of this afternoon and into the overnight hours, with isolated to
scattered shower and storm development anticipated primarily
across the Treasure Coast and far western portions of the forecast
area. Some isolated activity has already started across the
Treasure Coast. Rain and storm chances across these areas range
between 20-30%, with less than 20% chances across the remainder of
east central Florida. Dry air aloft from Saharan dust will help
limit some convective development, but any storms that do develop
will be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, wind
gusts up to 55 mph, and brief heavy downpours resulting in quick
rainfall accumulations of 1-2", locally higher in some locations.
Activity will push westward through the afternoon and into this
evening, with mostly dry conditions forecast through the remainder
of tonight.

Saturday, the high pressure at the surface and aloft remains in
place, with continued moisture advection northward the result of
persistent southerly flow. Rain and storm chances increase across
east central Florida, reaching 30-60% areawide. A return to the
more typical diurnal pattern is forecast, with a sea breeze
collision across east central Florida driving a majority of
convection. Sufficient surface-based instability and modest low-
level lapse rates will support the development of strong storms
Saturday afternoon and evening, with lingering dry air aloft
supporting gusty winds at times. Frequent lightning strikes, wind
gusts up to 55 mph, and brief heavy downpours will be possible.
Activity will diminish into the evening and overnight hours.

Heat will continue to be a concern through the remainder of today
and again on Saturday. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all
of east central Florida through 8 PM tonight, with highs remaining
on track to reach the mid to upper 90s and peak heat indices up
to 110F possible. Similar conditions are anticipated once again on
Saturday, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s. There is
a high likelihood that another Heat Advisory will be needed.
Practicing heat safety will be key in order to prevent heat-
related illness. Adequate hydration, frequent breaks in the shade
or air-conditioned buildings, and wearing lightweight, lightly
colored clothing is strongly encouraged for those spending
extended periods of time outdoors through the remainder of today
and on Saturday. Little overnight relief is anticipated, with
conditions remaining muggy in the 70s.

Sunday-Thursday...Broad mid-level ridging and the surface
Atlantic high will remain in place across the Florida peninsula
through Sunday. By Monday and into early next week, a mid-level
trough slowly moves across the southeastern US, with its
associated surface cold front drifting southward. The surface
Atlantic high will weaken and shift slightly south as the boundary
approaches, with the mid-level trough and surface boundary
forecast to stall just north of east central Florida. While
persistent southwest to west flow will drive increasing moisture
across east central Florida through the remainder of the weekend
and into early next week, the approaching boundary will also
further boost moisture across the area. This in turn will lead to
continued near-normal rain and storm chances of 30-60% across
east central Florida, with the highest chances primarily focused
across northern portions of the forecast area. Activity looks to
follow the typical summertime diurnal pattern, with sea breeze
driven convection anticipated each afternoon into the evening
hours. Predominant west-southwest flow will keep the sea breeze
pinned closer to the east coast, hence the greatest rain chances
through the extended period favoring eastern portions of the
Florida peninsula. It remains too early to determine exact storm
threats, but lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours will be
possible. Activity will diminish into the late evening hours,
pushing offshore across the local Atlantic waters overnight.

Temperatures on Sunday will remain hot in the mid to upper 90s
areawide, with peak heat indices 105-110 possible. Major to
Extreme HeatRisk is forecast to continue on Sunday, so practicing
heat safety will be key through the remainder of the weekend.
Temperatures will moderate ever so slightly into next week, but
are still forecast to remain above normal values. A close eye will
be kept on peak heat indices through the extended, but overall
trends suggest values generally remaining below Heat Advisory
criteria into early next week. Muggy conditions will persist every
night across east central Florida, with lows in the 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast across the
local Atlantic waters through this weekend and into early next
week. Broad high pressure across the Atlantic will remain in place
through at least Monday, shifting southward into mid week as a
frontal boundary approaches and stalls just north of the local
waters. Mostly dry conditions persist through tonight, with a
return of isolated to scattered showers and storms through this
weekend. The greatest rain and storm chances are anticipated along
with the approach of the frontal boundary towards the middle of
next week. Southwest to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots persist
through the forecast period along with seas of 1-3 feet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 746 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Isolated showers are ongoing around MCO this evening with
scattered to numerous showers and storms across the western side
of the state. Have maintained VCTS for the interior sites through
01Z. Dry conditions through the overnight hours. SE winds behind
the east coast sea breeze this evening will become light and
variable overnight. Winds will become SW at around 5 KT by mid
morning on Saturday before turning SE and increasing to 6-12KT
into the afternoon with the sea breeze. Scattered showers and
storms are forecast to form along the sea breeze Saturday, and
have included VCTS starting at 16/17Z for TIX-SUA, and 20Z for all
the interior sites and DAB. Have not included any TEMPOs at this
time.



&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites today and Sat:

Site           July 10     July 11
Daytona       97 (2010)   98 (1980)
Leesburg      97 (2016)   97 (2016)
Sanford       97 (2007)   99 (1969)
Orlando       99 (1980)   98 (1989)
Melbourne     98 (1964)   97 (2010)
Vero Beach    97 (2022)   96 (2020)
Fort Pierce   96 (1981)   99 (1980)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  95  76  94 /  10  30  30  60
MCO  77  97  77  97 /  20  50  30  50
MLB  78  93  77  93 /  10  30  30  40
VRB  77  93  75  94 /  10  40  30  20
LEE  78  96  78  95 /  30  60  30  50
SFB  77  97  77  96 /  10  40  30  60
ORL  77  97  78  95 /  10  50  30  50
FPR  76  93  75  94 /  10  40  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-
     141-144-247-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Watson