454
FXUS62 KMLB 222354
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
754 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

- A HIGH Risk of deadly rip currents and rough surf will persist
  at area beaches today and into this weekend. Do not enter the
  Ocean!

- Offshore flow and a moist airmass will lead to higher shower and
  storm chances (~70-80%) during the afternoon and early evening
  hours through the weekend.

- Poor boating conditions will linger over the gulf stream waters
  through Saturday, with hazardous conditions near inlets during
  the outgoing tide.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Today-Sunday... A weak front across the Deep South today will slowly
slide southward and eventually stall across north Florida into the
weekend, resulting in a wetter pattern across east central Florida.
The Atlantic high pressure axis is forecast to remain south of the
local area, producing W/SW flow across east central Florida. The
east coast sea breeze is forecast to form this afternoon. Due to the
offshore flow, the sea breeze is forecast to remain pinned towards
the coast from Melbourne northward, with the sea breeze making it a
little farther inland south of Melbourne today, and remain just
offshore Saturday and not at all Sunday. Increasing moisture across
east central Florida (PW values of 2.0-2.3") will lead to higher
than normal rain chances, up to 70-80 percent today and Saturday
around 70 percent Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms
will develop and push eastward across east central Florida and
offshore each afternoon and evening. Activity will initialize across
the west coast of Florida and push eastward into ECFL into the
afternoon and evening, with outflow boundary/sea breeze interactions
enhancing the convective storm coverage across east central Florida.
Any lingering activity will move out into the water or dissipate by
midnight each night, with mostly dry conditions through the
overnight hours.

As the moist airmass moves over ECFL, lingering pockets of dry air
aloft may lead to some stronger storms each day. The forecast
soundings supports this by showing plenty of instability (MUCAPE ~
1000-2000 J/kg), moderate lapse rates, and sufficient DCAPE (~ 400-
700 J/kg) due to those pockets of drier air. The main storm threats
today will be frequent lightning, strong wind gusts to 45-55 mph,
and heavy downpours. Also, can not rule out a funnel cloud or brief
tornado this afternoon with any storms that can interact with or
develop along the pinned sea breeze near the coast, mainly south of
the Cape. There is a very low threat for a severe storm or two to
develop in the afternoon, capable of producing localized damaging
wind gusts to 60 mph. Stronger storms will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches, and with repeated rounds of
heavy rainfall into the weekend, could increase the threat for minor
flooding in urban and low drainage areas. A Marginal Risk of
excessive rainfall exists near to NW of the I-4 corridor on Saturday
and north of Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County Sunday.

Seasonably warm temperatures through the weekend due to higher storm
and cloud coverage. Afternoon highs will generally be in the low 90s
through the weekend, with the exception of a couple locations
possibly making it into the mid 90s this afternoon. These
temperatures combined with humidity will produce peak heat indices
of 102-107 degrees each afternoon. Warm and muggy conditions will
continue each night, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

Monday-Thursday...(Previous Discussion) Stalled front will linger
across north Florida early this week and potentially shift southward
into central Florida into the middle of next week. This will
continue above normal rain chances across the region, with PoPs as
high as 60-70%. An offshore flow will continue to transport
scattered to numerous showers and storms across east central Florida
and offshore each afternoon and evening early in the week. However,
steering winds then weaken as front is forecast to move into the
area, giving the sea breeze a better chance to move inland each
afternoon and focusing greatest coverage of showers and storms
inland. A few stronger storms will continue to be possible each day.
Highs remain near to slightly above normal, mostly in the low 90s,
but may see mid 90s inland on Tuesday. Peak heat index values will
still continue to range from 102-107 degrees through at least early
next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Today-Tuesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Poor boating
conditions continue across the Gulf Stream for lingering seas up to
6 feet, and near inlets for long (11-13 sec) period swells. This
long period swell and subsequent hazardous boating conditions near
inlets during the  outgoing tides will continue through Saturday.
Otherwise, seas will range from 3-5 feet closer to the coast today.
Seas 4-6 feet tonight into Sunday before subsiding to 3-5 ft into
early next week. A weak front moving southward and stalling across
north Florida will maintain offshore winds out of the west-southwest
for much of the period, but may become more variable into this
afternoon as the east coast sea breeze tries to form. Winds will
remain below 15 KT through the period.

A wet pattern will persist through the period, with scattered to
numerous showers and storms pushing eastward and offshore each
afternoon and evening. Some stronger storms will be possible each
day, producing frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds near or in
excess of 34 knots.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 750 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Mainly VFR forecast, outside of SHRA/TSRA impacts. -TSRA lingers
thru 01-02z for DAB and MCO/ISM with drier conds thru 08z-09z.

As light (variable at times) west-southwest flow continues,
early- day SHRA/TSRA development is expected again on Sat. This
activity is forecast to move from LEE to SFB/MCO/ISM between
09z-14z, pushing SE toward TIX/MLB and perhaps reaching the
Treasure Coast sites after 17z-18z. Latest hi-res models are in
some agreement on coverage/timing, but prefer higher confidence
before including TEMPOs. Lesser coverage is expected after
18z-20z across northern terminals. Psbl impacts include brief
MVFR/IFR conds and gusty winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  88  75  90 /  40  80  40  70
MCO  75  91  76  91 /  40  80  30  70
MLB  76  91  76  90 /  20  80  40  70
VRB  74  92  74  93 /  30  80  40  70
LEE  76  88  76  88 /  40  80  40  70
SFB  75  90  76  90 /  30  80  30  70
ORL  76  90  76  90 /  40  80  30  70
FPR  73  92  73  93 /  20  80  30  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Schaper