313
FXUS62 KMLB 191945
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
345 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Tonight-Sunday...The area of high pressure will remain in place
across the eastern U.S., with troughing near the Bahamas
developing as Hurricane Oscar moves across the far eastern
Caribbean. It is important to note that Oscar is not expected to
bring direct impacts at this time to east central Florida. This
setup has placed Florida under a prevailing northeasterly flow
regime, with winds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph
persisting tonight into Sunday. One difference from the last
several days is that moisture has slowly increased across the
area, and when combined with the northeasterly flow, has allowed
for the development of some isolated light showers across the
local Atlantic waters that are moving onshore. This activity is
forecast to continue overnight into Sunday, with the potential for
some greater coverage along the coast as moisture further
increases. The interior will remain mostly dry, though a stray
shower or two may be able to make it inland. Skies are forecast to
remain mostly clear to partly cloudy tonight into tomorrow.
Temperatures will remain seasonable, with lows tonight falling
into the mid 60s to low 70s and afternoon highs on Sunday in the
low to mid 80s.

Hazardous beach conditions will also continue through the
remainder of the weekend. Higher seas combined with persistent
onshore flow will create a high risk of rip currents and rough
surf at the local beaches. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect
along the Treasure Coast through 10 PM for breaking waves of 6 to
7 feet. Additionally, astronomical high tides combined with the
onshore flow will continue to enhance the potential for minor
coastal flooding, especially near times of high tide. A Coastal
Flood Advisory remains in effect along the entire east central
Florida coast through Sunday morning. Overall, entering the surf
is strongly discouraged due to the hazardous conditions.

Monday-Saturday (previous modified)...The Florida peninsula will
remain between high pressure stationed over the eastern US and
troughing near the Bahamas from Hurricane Oscar. These features
will continue a breezy/gusty NE wind flow over the area with a
gradual reduction in wind speeds mid week as high pressure weakens
and the pressure gradient loosens as Oscar pulls farther away,
but wind direction is forecast to still remain onshore. There are
no direct impacts to east central Florida expected from Oscar. The
high pressure over the eastern US will remain nearly stationary
while gradually weakening. Atlantic showers will continue to cross
the coast and push well inland Monday, then some drier air will
move back into the area mid to late week decreasing rain chances.
A weak cool front is forecast to push across the area Friday, but
no significant rain along or cooling behind this front is forecast
at this time. Near seasonable max temps in the low to mid 80s
expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Hazardous boating conditions will persist across the local
Atlantic waters over the next several days, as an area of high
pressure remains anchored across the eastern U.S. and strong
northeast winds prevail. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
across all legs of the local Atlantic waters through at least
Monday afternoon for northeast winds of 15 to 25 knots with gusts
to 30 knots and seas of 6 to 9 feet.

Increasing moisture across the area paired with the persistent
northeast flow will allow for the development of isolated showers
across the local waters. Lightning is not currently anticipated
with this activity, though it cannot fully be ruled out.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 345 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

The forecast points along the middle Saint Johns River will remain
in Moderate to Major Flood Stage through early next week. At Astor
and Deland, the river is forecast to remain nearly steady in
Major Flood Stage into the middle of next week. Above Lake Harney
near Geneva, the river is forecast to remain steady around Major
Flood Stage through the weekend, and is then forecast to fall into
Moderate Flood Stage early next week. At Sanford, the river will
continue to very slowly rise within Moderate Flood Stage.
Residents and interests along the river near these points should
continue to anticipate prolonged flooding effects.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Breezy northeast winds continue this afternoon with frequent gusts
around 23-28 kts. Gusty conditions continue along the coast
overnight. Widely isolated sprinkles are observed moving onshore
this afternoon. Have included VCSH overnight along the coast as
more organized isolated showers are forecast to move onshore. A
persistent pattern continues into Sunday with a similar forecast
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  81  70  83 /  30  30  20  20
MCO  68  83  68  84 /  10  20  10  10
MLB  72  83  72  83 /  20  20  20  20
VRB  72  84  72  84 /  20  20  20  20
LEE  66  81  66  84 /  10  20  10  10
SFB  68  81  69  84 /  20  20  10  20
ORL  69  83  69  84 /  10  20  10  20
FPR  72  84  72  84 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159-
     164-347-447-647-747.

     High Surf Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for FLZ154-159-
     164.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for AMZ550-552-555-
     570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Law