701
FXUS62 KMLB 272338
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
738 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

- Scattered to numerous storms are expected each afternoon and
  evening through Friday across east central Florida, with 50-70%
  chance of rain. Main storm hazards will be frequent lightning,
  wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph, and locally heavy rainfall, which
  may cause localized minor flooding in urban and poor drainage
  areas.

- Storms will begin to focus more over the interior from this
  weekend into next week as onshore flow deepens, forcing a
  diffuse Atlantic sea breeze more quickly inland.

- Seasonably hot and humid. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s,
  with peak heat indices of 100 to 106 each day. When planning to
  be outdoors, stay well hydrated and consider taking frequent
  breaks in the shade or air conditioning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Today-Friday... Florida will remain situated between two upper level
high pressure systems, one in the Atlantic and one over TX/SW US, as
an upper level trough shifts eastward towards the eastern US.
Shortwave energy will continue to traverse the base of this trough
over the Deep South and across the Florida peninsula. At the
surface, high pressure across the Atlantic will slowly shift
northward, with the axis remaining over Florida. Locally, offshore
(S-SW) flow will persist with speeds 5-10 mph each day. The east
coast sea breeze is forecast to form each afternoon, turning the
winds onshore (E-SE) as the sea breeze pushes inland. Moisture will
remain near to slightly above normal, with PW values 1.8-2.3" each
day. This will support a medium to high (50-70 percent) chance of
showers and storms through the period. Scattered showers and storms
are pushing in across the Treasure Coast as well as into Lake County
from the south and west this afternoon. The east coast sea breeze
has begun to push onshore this afternoon, mainly from Cape Canaveral
southward, with scattered storms forming along the sea breeze. CAM
guidance shows additional storms developing along the I-95 corridor
in the mid-afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland, as well as
showers and storms forming across the interior by late afternoon and
evening. Similar pattern is forecast for Friday. Highest coverage
will be across the interior each afternoon and evening where the sea
breeze and outflow boundary collisions are forecast to occur.

The environment supports storms each day with plenty of instability
(MUCAPE 1800-2400 J/kg), ample buoyancy (lifted index of -4 to -7),
adequate downdraft potential (DCAPE 700-900 J/kg), and somewhat
cooler temperatures aloft (-7C at 500 mb). Main storm hazards will
be frequent lightning, gusty winds of 45-55 mph, small hail, and
heavy rainfall of 1-3 " which may lead to minor localized flooding
in urban and poor drainage areas. Any lingering activity will
diminish around midnight, with activity across the Atlantic waters
continuing through the overnight hours. Temperatures will be near to
slightly above normal, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s
with peak heat indices of 100-106F. Overnight lows will be in the
low to mid 70s.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has upgraded AL96 to Tropical
Storm Dolly in the central tropical Atlantic today. Conditions
remain unfavorable for strengthening over the next 5 days. There are
currently no specific concerns to east central Florida at this time.
Residents and visitors should continue to monitor the forecast for
updates.

Saturday-Thursday... Upper level high pressure over the Atlantic and
the SW US will merge over the weekend and remain over the southern
US/Gulf/Atlantic into early next week. At the surface, high pressure
over the Atlantic will continue to shift northward towards the
Carolinas into early next week. A frontal boundary will slide
southward into the Deep South/Northern Florida this weekend before
stalling, eventually becoming diffuse by early next week. Locally,
winds will shift onshore (east to southeast) this weekend and remain
through at least mid next week as the surface high pressure moves
northward of Florida. Moisture across the local area will remain
near to above normal, with PW values of 1.8-2.1". Daily afternoon
showers and lightning storms are forecast to continue, with
scattered storms forming each day along the advancing east coast sea
breeze, with additional showers and storms forming across the
interior. Highest coverage of storms will be across the interior,
where the sea breeze collision is forecast to occur each evening.
Storm hazards will be similar to what they are today through late
week. Temperatures will remain seasonably hot and humid with
overnight lows continuing to be warm and muggy.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Today-Monday... Generally favorable boating conditions expected.
Atlantic high pressure will slowly shift northward, reaching the
local waters today and moving north of the area by the weekend and
remaining into early next week. Light south to southwest flow will
persist through Friday, with winds becoming onshore (east to
southeast) and increasing to around 12 KT each afternoon with the
formation of the east coast sea breeze. Winds will then shift
onshore into the weekend as the high pressure moves north of the
area. Seas 1-2ft before increasing to 2-3ft this weekend and into.
early next week. A few offshore-moving storms with sudden strong
wind gusts remain possible through Friday. Scattered onshore showers
and storms will then be possible this weekend and into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 702 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Activity ending a little earlier this evening than last. Aside
from some debris rain around, could still see ISOLD convection
thru early-mid evening. VFR conditions continue outside of storms
ane expect mainly dry conditions across land overnight with light
winds. The ECSB will develop again on Fri and move inland, quicker
across the Treasure Coast. Winds will transition E/SE behind this
boundary. Recent CAM runs showing less coverage on Fri now so
will see if this trend continues. Primary concerns for aviation
with Fri storms include local wind gusts 35-45 kts, frequent
lightning, and torrential downpours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  91  75  90 /  30  40  20  50
MCO  76  94  76  93 /  50  60  30  70
MLB  75  91  77  90 /  30  30  20  50
VRB  74  91  76  90 /  20  40  40  60
LEE  75  92  75  92 /  20  60  30  70
SFB  75  93  75  93 /  30  60  30  70
ORL  76  93  76  93 /  40  60  30  70
FPR  74  91  76  90 /  10  40  40  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Sedlock