926
FXUS62 KMLB 240522
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
122 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

- Scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms will
  persist through the week, with the highest coverage expected
  from mid to late week. A few storms will be capable of producing
  gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph, particularly today and Tuesday.

- Seasonably hot and humid conditions are expected through the
  week. Those working or recreating outdoors should take frequent
  breaks and stay hydrated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

A rather amplified upper-air pattern remains in place across the
U.S. early this morning. An unseasonably cool trough sits over the
eastern Great Lakes, with additional jet stream energy passing
close to Glacier NP. Meanwhile, anomalous ridging extends from
the Chihuahuan Desert to the Greater Antilles. A weakness in the
ridge axis remains over Florida, where a weak shortwave trough
currently resides.

Through at least Wednesday, the break in the ridge will remain very
close to Florida as additional weak ripples of vorticity reinforce
this general pattern. Then, from late week and into next weekend,
global ensembles indicate that heights will build over the state as
the Bermuda high attempts to establish itself closer to the Bahamas.

Expect the near-surface ridge axis to remain near or south of
Central Florida through at least Wednesday. Thereafter, surface high
pressure should become focused very close to or immediately north
of the local area. PWAT (total moisture) values are forecast to
sink slightly below normal early this week before climbing toward
climatological norms for the rest of the forecast period.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Tuesday...

The overall setup will not change too much as we begin the work
week, aside from slightly drier air briefly filtering overhead. With
broad light offshore flow and an expected sea breeze each afternoon,
at least scattered showers and storms are forecast. Chances range
from 30-40% today up to 30-60% on Tuesday, with the highest chances
on Tuesday near and north of Orlando. Storms may linger into the
evening due to late boundary collisions.

While the drier air should limit overall coverage a bit, it may
also favor stronger downdrafts in storms that develop. There is
a low chance for wind gusts up to 50-55 mph.

High temps will be hot, in the low to mid 90s each afternoon. Heat
indices peak at 100 to 107.

Wednesday - Friday...

As high pressure nudges essentially overhead, the low-level sea
breeze circulation will be the dominant force for storm development
each day. Light offshore flow in the mid-levels will try to steer
showers and storms back toward the coast in the evening hours. As
moisture returns to normal, this portends fairly high coverage of
afternoon and early evening showers and storms for east central
Florida (50-70%).

Seasonably hot conditions continue, with highs in the low to mid
90s and heat indices of 100 to 107.

Next Weekend...

Near-normal moisture remains in place with high pressure
strengthening nearby or just northeast of the local area. Scattered
afternoon and evening storms should continue, but the focus
may shift over the interior as mid-level offshore flow weakens.
Continued seasonable heat and humidity.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Near-surface high pressure rests close to the Florida Straits,
with weak offshore flow interrupted by the afternoon sea breeze.
By the middle of the week, the ridge axis lifts closer to the
local Atlantic waters. A few showers and storms are possible,
especially at night over the Gulf Stream. Some evening storms may
move offshore early in the work week.

Light S to SW breezes up to 10 kt, turning SE in the afternoon up
to 12 kt with the sea breeze. Seas generally less than 2 feet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Light S/SW winds through 15Z Mon then Atlc sea breeze will develop
and shift winds E/SE near 10 knots at coastal terminals by 17Z. With
some drier air and lighter steering flow, do not expect too early of
a start to convection. In fact it could be quite late across the
interior (MCO/SFB) assocd with the sea breeze collision. So have
added a PROB30 for MCO/SFB from 20Z-24Z as well as for the Treasure
coast terminals (VRB-SUA) due to boundary interactions with the
Okeechobee lake breeze and steering flow back toward the coast.
Potential exists for gusty winds 35-45 knots in the stronger storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  75  92  74 /  30  10  50  20
MCO  95  76  94  76 /  40  10  50  10
MLB  93  77  93  76 /  30  10  40  20
VRB  93  75  92  75 /  30  10  30  20
LEE  93  75  92  75 /  40  10  60  10
SFB  94  75  93  75 /  40  10  50  20
ORL  94  77  94  76 /  40  10  50  10
FPR  93  75  92  75 /  30  10  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Kelly