760
FXUS62 KMLB 031851
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
251 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

- Unusually deep moisture across the area will produce high
  chances of showers and lightning storms through Saturday.
  Greatest coverage generally in the afternoon and evening, but
  higher than normal chances in the overnight and morning.

- A few strong storms capable of frequent lightning strikes, gusty
  winds and, in particular, heavy rain.

- Rounds of showers and storms will increase the risk for minor
  flooding, especially for areas that receive locally high
  rainfall amounts multiple days in a row.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Current-Tonight... Scattered to numerous showers and embedded
lightning storms have developed across central Florida and the local
Atlantic waters this afternoon. Movement of showers has suggested
the presence of a weak surface trough across the local area as
interior activity moves southeast and coastal convection lifts
northeast. The 15Z XMR sounding has shown deep moisture in place
with a PWAT of 2.18". Coverage of showers and storms remains high
through the remainder of the day (70-80%) in vicinity of the broad
surface trough. Activity gradually diminishes through late evening
with low rain chances lingering overnight, especially along the
coast. Mild conditions persist tonight with lows in the low to mid
70s.

Friday... High moisture holds in place locally as a frontal boundary
remains stationary over north Florida. Currently anticipating high
rain chances (~80%) and muggy conditions across east central Florida
for the 4th of July holiday. While confidence in overall shower and
storm coverage is moderate to high, timing of peak impacts has
become a challenging forecast. Models are not overly enthusiastic
about development of the east coast sea breeze tomorrow due to high
cloud coverage and offshore flow. As a result, there is some
uncertainty in the timing and general location of first
convection. Lingering outflow boundaries from activity offshore
could perhaps be the first spark to any daytime showers and storms
as it converges with offshore flow along the coast. After first
initiation, increasing mesoscale boundaries should drive high
shower and embedded storm chances through the day. Light
southwest steering flow will generally push any inland activity
back towards the coast, potentially helping to clear showers and
storms across the interior ahead of evening 4th of July
festivities. However, this solution will be highly dependent on
how early convection is initiated. Any storm push back due to the
offshore steering flow could then have impacts on coastal
celebrations in the evening. Warm temperatures aloft and limited
surface instability will contribute to long, skinny CAPE profiles.
Stronger storms which can develop along boundary collisions will
be capable of frequent lightning strikes, convective wind gusts up
to 45 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Brief funnel clouds cannot
be ruled out where multiple boundaries meet.

Afternoon temperatures are forecast near to slightly below normal in
the mid to upper 80s. However, high humidity will produce peak heat
index values in the upper 90s and near 100 degrees. Even as
temperatures gradually cool around sunset, evening conditions will
remain muggy with heat index values in the upper 70s. Although skies
will be mostly cloudy, a minor to moderate HeatRisk will be
present tomorrow.

Sat-Wed (previous)... Model guidance shows a weak low pressure
developing along the stalled front by Sat just offshore NE FL/SE GA
coast. NHC continues to gradually increase probabilities on
development of a tropical/subtropical depression with this low, but
models eventually take it N to NE away from the area early next
week. High rain chances are forecast to continue Sat then decrease
Sun and beyond but only back to more seasonable (climatological)
norms of 40-60 percent. The Atlc ridge axis which has been
suppressed well to our south should lift back northward towards
Florida. The decrease in rain chances and cloudiness will produce an
uptick in max temperatures reaching the lower 90s Sun-Wed and heat
indices climbing a bit each day reaching 102-106 Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 332 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

A weak front will stall across north FL late this week while the low
level Atlc ridge axis remains south of the local waters.
Considerable cloudiness and resulting SW flow will produce weak/
delayed sea breezes today and Friday. Weak low pressure is
forecast to develop along this stalled boundary over north FL or
offshore NE FL and meander. While winds and seas are generally
favorable for boating, rounds of showers and storms will pose a
continuous risk for mariners late this week and into the weekend.
The weak low will gradually shift N to NE away from the area Sun-
Mon. This will allow the low level ridge axis to lift back
northward slightly, reducing the offshore flow and produce an
earlier sea breeze. Seas 1-3 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

VFR with intermittent MVFR conditions are in place across ECFL
terminals, likely to continue thru at least 00z. Deep moisture
will continue to provide SCT SHRA/TSRA this afternoon, affecting
most sites (with lower confidence in impacts at LEE). Low
probabilities remain of wind gusts 35+ kt. WSW flow 5-10 kt (up to
15 kt at coast) continues for most, except where the ECSB and/or
westward-moving outflow backs winds SE at the coast.

Drier conditions are forecast after 03z before SHRA/TSRA chances
gradually increase again after 15-17z Fri. A weak sea breeze is
possible at DAB Fri. after 15z, unless disturbed by earlier
convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  87  73  87 /  60  80  50  80
MCO  75  87  74  88 /  60  80  50  80
MLB  74  86  74  88 /  70  80  60  80
VRB  70  88  71  89 /  70  80  60  70
LEE  75  88  74  87 /  50  80  40  80
SFB  75  88  74  89 /  60  80  50  80
ORL  75  88  75  89 /  60  80  50  80
FPR  71  87  71  89 /  70  80  60  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Schaper