008
FXUS62 KMLB 170104
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
804 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 146 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

- Unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures will continue through
  the extended.

- There remains a Moderate Risk of life-threatening rip currents at
  all central FL Atlantic beaches.

- Mainly dry conditions are forecast to continue through most of the
  upcoming week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 804 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

A weak cold front across the southeast U.S. will approach and
eventually move into north Florida late tonight. It will remain
dry tonight, with passing cirrus leading to partly cloudy skies.
Winds will remain light out of the W/SW this evening, becoming
light and variable overnight. Main weather concern will be the
potential for fog development late tonight through early Monday
morning. Hi-res guidance has been fairly consistent in showing
greatest potential for fog, with visibilities less than a mile
across Lake County extending eastward through the I-4 corridor
toward daybreak. HREF probabilities for dense fog (visibilities
of a quarter mile or less) are up to 40-60% near to west of
Orlando early Monday morning, and have updated the forecast to
include areas of fog for this portion of east central FL.
Otherwise, have maintained patchy fog mention for areas west of
I-95. Any fog or stratus that forms will lift and diminish by mid
morning Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Current-Tonight...Weak surface high pressure continues to push
further away into the Atlc ahead of an approaching weak "cool" front
that will align itself just north of I-4 by sunrise Mon morning.
Aloft we find nearly zonal flow with weak shortwave ridging
pushing across Texas and eventually the north Gulf overnight. Dry
conditions persist with satellite imagery showing fair-weather Cu
moving west to east across the central peninsula. Current W/WNW
winds 10-15 mph with some higher gusts will decrease to around 5
mph tonight. After a pleasant day with highs in the 70s temps
will fall overnight into the M-U50s to around 60F.

Previous Modified Previous Extended Forecast Discussion.

Mon-Wed...The aforementioned weak front will push thru ECFL on Mon
and stall across the south-central Florida peninsula into Tue, where
it will wash out through mid-week. Amplifying ridging aloft
across the Gulf builds into the Gulf Coast States Wed. The front
itself is forecast to remain dry, as PWATs remain well below 1.5"
(forecast closer to 1.15"). Therefore, no mentionable PoPs have
been included for Mon. However, onshore flow will support a slight
moisture increase along the dissipating boundary by Tue, where it
is forecast to linger into Wed. PWATs will remain low, 1.4-1.5"
max across the Treasure Coast, but global models suggest at least
a few showers are possible here Tue/Wed. So, have kept inherited
low (~20%) PoPs in this area both days for sake of consistency.
Elsewhere, conditions look to remain dry. High temps are forecast
to increase by a degree or two each day, though are expected to
remain in the L80s through mid-week. Onshore flow will have a
greater impact on the overnight lows, which look to increase into
the 60s for most of the area by Tue morning.

Thu-Sun...Surface high pressure over the southeast U.S. is shunted
southward and pushed offshore into the Atlc by a vigorous mid-level
trough to the north into the weekend. Locally, dry conditions
continue to prevail, as PWATs remain around 1". PoPs below 15%
through Sun. Onshore flow will veer southerly through the period,
with daily sea breezes. Max temps remain above climo in the L80s,
with overnight low temps remaining mild in the 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 146 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

As weak surface high pressure pushes further into the western
Atlc, a weak front will move south into the central FL peninsula
on Mon - becoming nearly stationary just south of the Treasure
Coast waters into mid-week. Westerly winds into tonight ahead of
the approaching boundary, become NW/N behind it during the day on
Mon. Winds may increase offshore (Volusia coast) tonight to 15-20
kts, so small craft will have to Exercise Caution here. High
pressure will build slowly back into the area, post-frontal, with
the pressure gradient (winds) relaxing. Onshore flow quickly
develops Mon night thru mid-week (Wed-Thu). With a slight uptick
in moisture, we may see some light shower activity across the
local waters, mainly south of the Cape by Tue. Seas 2-4 ft thru
the period - highest in the Gulf Stream.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 650 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

A weak and dry front will push through the region into tomorrow.
VFR conditions are mostly forecast through tomorrow, but patchy
fog and stratus may be able to develop south of the front late
tonight through early Monday morning. HREF guidance has greatest
probabilities for IFR/MVFR conditions from fog and stratus across
KLEE/KSFB/KMCO/KISM, and can`t rule out brief periods of locally
dense fog producing LIFR conditions toward daybreak. For now,
have tempo groups at these sites from 11-14Z for IFR vis/cig at
KLEE and MVFR conditions at KSFB/KMCO/KISM/KTIX. Any fog/stratus
should quickly burn off and lift past sunrise, with any vis/cig
reductions ending by 14Z.

Light west winds will become N/NW around 5-7 knots tomorrow, with
a sea breeze switching winds to the NE around 7-10 knots as it
shifts inland through the afternoon/early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  60  77  61  78 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  61  81  61  82 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  59  79  64  80 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  57  80  63  80 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  60  80  58  81 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  60  80  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  61  80  61  81 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  57  80  62  80 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...Weitlich