006
FXUS62 KMLB 192330
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
630 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 145 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

- Patchy fog is possible for the next few mornings, and instances
  of locally dense fog cannot be ruled out

- A moderate risk of rip currents remains at area beaches

- Dry and warm conditions to continue into next week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Overall, the forecast remains on track across east central
Florida. The only adjustment made this evening includes adding in
the potential for some locally dense fog across portions of
southern Lake county and far western Orange county. Model guidance
has consistently been hinting at some locally dense fog within
these areas, so decided to add it in with the evening update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Now-Tonight...A fair afternoon is underway with temperatures in
the upper 70s to low 80s around lunchtime. Outside of a few
cumulus clouds along the Treasure Coast and around Lake
Okeechobee, much of the area is experiencing a blue sky day. 5-10
mph onshore winds will turn calm tonight as temperatures reach the
mid 50s to mid 60s by early Thursday morning. Patchy fog
development is in play overnight, particularly from near the Cape
to Lake Kissimmee, including places like Titusville, Melbourne,
and as far south as the Treasure Coast. Locally dense fog cannot
be ruled out, also, so this is something to keep in mind for the
Thursday morning commute.

Thursday-Saturday...Little change is ahead for the rest of the week
as the H5 ridge expands eastward. High pressure and PW under 1" will
keep the stretch of dry weather going through at least Saturday.
There could be a few more high clouds in the mix Friday as the
profile moistens around 250-300mb. Otherwise, expect mostly clear
skies to continue, with daytime temperatures a few degrees above
normal (low/mid 80s) and overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid
60s. Patchy fog remains possible each morning in the presence of
calm winds and narrowing dew point depressions.

Sunday-Next Week...A weakened cold front arrives Sunday with light
winds shifting to the north through midday, then onshore with the
east coast breeze in the afternoon. Broad mid-level low pressure
ejects from the Desert Southwest Monday into Tuesday, but ridging
over Florida keeps the more active pattern well north. A few model
runs show coastal showers developing by Wednesday, but this is
highly uncertain this far out. The anticipation is for mostly dry
conditions to persist through at least Tuesday with similar
temperatures each day (lows in the 60s, highs in the upper 70s to
mid 80s). A front could approach the area mid to late week, though
model solutions are muddied as to how far south the front goes
before stalling. Regardless, moisture will be on the increase, so
we will be watching for any signs of at least low rain chances
later in the week and for the upcoming holiday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 145 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Good boating conditions are forecast through at least Saturday as
high pressure remains in place over the local Atlantic. Light and
variable winds turn onshore, increasing to around 10 kt each
afternoon with the sea breeze. Winds veer NNW Sunday, then onshore
again Sunday afternoon, as a weak front approaches. Seas 1-3 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 630 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Mainly VFR conditions are anticipated at the east central Florida
terminals through the overnight hours. Model guidance continues to
hint at the potential for fog in some spots tonight, but there
remains uncertainty around whether this fog will develop near the
terminals. Maintain a VIS reduction to 6SM after 08Z from TIX down
to FPR along the coast, improving by 12Z. Winds remain light and
variable to calm overnight, generally picking up out of the ENE
after 18Z tomorrow. Dry conditions are forecast to prevail at all
local terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  57  80  60  80 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  60  84  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  61  80  62  80 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  62  81  63  81 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  58  82  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  58  83  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  60  83  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  61  81  62  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Tollefsen