Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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255 FXUS62 KMLB 242037 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 337 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 337 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024 - A gradual warming trend into the week ahead. - Dry conditions through at least late week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 337 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024 Current-Monday...A weak sea breeze has developed along the southern Brevard and Treasure Coasts this afternoon allowing a small field of cumulus clouds to develop. Otherwise, sunny skies persist. Temperatures are observed just below normal values in the low to mid 70s. Clear skies and dry conditions will help temperatures to quickly cool after sunset with overnight lows falling into the upper 40s and low 50s. Models have hinted at the potential for patchy fog late tonight and into early Monday morning. The greatest confidence in fog development lies across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee county where light onshore flow this afternoon has allowed for modest moisture return. The forecast for tomorrow remains similar to today, although a tad warmer. Dry conditions continue with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 70s. Tuesday-Sunday (modified previous)...Weak surface high pressure will continue across ECFL, ahead of a weak frontal boundary that will move into north FL late Tues/Wed becoming diffuse. A stronger cold front is then forecast to push into/through central FL on Fri. This boundary will only have a thin line of modest moisture associated with it and for now we keep PoPs below mentionable for its passage, but will continue to monitor. Post-frontal conditions late Fri into the weekend, with weak high pressure moving back into the region with drier/cooler conditions. A warming trend will continue into mid week with U70s to near 80F Tues/Wed and L80s on Thanksgiving Day. Fri temperatures forecast in the L70s north of I-4 with M-U70s southward. L80s possible for the Treasure Coast as cooler air behind the front will take extra time penetrating further southward. Mins in the 50s for much of the interior with Fri morning the warmest (U50s to L60s areawide). Cooler again by the weekend with morning lows widely ranging the M40s-M50s. Generally light/variable winds into early Thu, then S/SW flow returns Thu/Thu night (pre-frontal), with winds veering NW/N behind the boundary for Fri-Sat. && .MARINE... Issued at 337 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024 Tonight-Thursday...High pressure will keep mostly favorable boating conditions through the period. However, hazardous conditions may develop near inlets during the outgoing tide early this week as an increasing (ENE/NE) long period swell (12-14 seconds) is forecast. Seas widely range 1-2 ft early this week, increasing to 3-4 ft Thursday. Light and variable winds continue through Thursday before becoming southwest ahead of a cold front. Dry conditions persist. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 1158 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2024 High pressure remains in place with light/variable winds over Greater Orlando terminals throughout the TAF. Light NE sea breeze 5-10 KT this afternoon from MLB southward to SUA. VFR prevails. Will monitor potential for patchy fog development overnight, especially for Treasure Coast terminals. Confidence currently too low for TEMPO. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 337 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024 Today-Extended...Weak high pressure remains in place across the region. Sensitive fire conditions continue along and north of the I- 4 corridor Monday due to low RH and dry soil. Otherwise, min RH values gradually recover into mid week. Winds remain light and variable through at least Thursday keeping poor to fair afternoon smoke dispersion. Patchy fog will be possible across the Treasure Coast and interior counties tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 46 76 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 51 77 54 79 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 52 76 57 78 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 52 77 58 79 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 48 77 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 49 77 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 52 78 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 49 77 57 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Law AVIATION...Heil