029
FXUS62 KMLB 031921
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
321 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

- Warmer than normal temperatures will continue through Monday,
  with near record highs forecast Sunday and Monday. Then turning
  cooler behind a cold front Tuesday into the middle of next week.

- Conditions will remain mostly dry through this weekend, with
  next best chance of rain (up to 60-70%) with passing cold front
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Tonight...An area of high pressure will remain in place across
the western Atlantic overnight, with breezy southeast flow
persisting across east central Florida. Rain chances remain below
10 percent locally as a result of the high, and skies are forecast
to be mostly clear tonight. Overnight temperatures are expected
to stay about 10 degrees above normal in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Fog is not forecast tonight, with the breezy conditions helping
to keep the boundary layer mixed. However, in spots where winds
become lighter, some patchy fog development cannot be fully ruled
out, though confidence remains low.

Friday-Sunday (previous modified)...Deep layer ridge centered
just east of Florida will remain extended across the area,
maintaining dry and much warmer than normal conditions. Overall,
temperatures are forecast to be 5 to 10 degrees above normal, with
afternoon highs climbing into the mid 80s to low 90s and overnight
lows in the mid to upper 60s. Based on the latest forecast,
record highs are mostly out of reach through Saturday. However,
on Sunday as temps continue to gradually rise, interior sites and
Daytona Beach are either forecast to be close or reach their
record highs for the date. Southeast winds will continue Friday
through Saturday, becoming south-southeast into Sunday. Wind
speeds will still be breezy at times, especially along the coast
each afternoon with the development of the east coast sea breeze.

Monday-Wednesday (previous)...Ridge aloft shifts farther east as a
trough moves through the southeast U.S., pushing a cold front
through the region early next week. Ridge axis at the surface slips
southward Monday as the cold front approaches the area, with low
level winds becoming S/SW, which will delay the east coast sea
breeze and allow highs to reach the upper 80s to low 90s, nearing
record highs for the date. Rain/storm chances will gradually
increase early next week as front approaches and steadily moves
through central Florida Monday night into Tuesday.

There does remain some timing differences between the operational
runs of the GFS/ECMWF in frontal passage and overall QPF, with the
GFS a little faster and not as wet as the ECMWF. Forecast leans
toward NBM, which is closer to the ECMWF solution, with rain chances
rising to 60-70 percent late Monday night through Tuesday. Low to
mid level SW wind fields do increase with the passage of this front,
so some stronger storms may be possible, but that will be largely
dependent on how much instability will be present as there still
remains some uncertainty on exact timing of the front.

Behind the front, cooler temperatures are forecast to move into the
area, with highs in the 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday and lows in the
50s to low 60s. Flow quickly becomes onshore behind the front, which
will keep some rain chances (20-40 percent) into midweek, with the
potential for onshore moving showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

An area of high pressure is forecast to remain in place across the
western Atlantic through late this week and into the weekend,
keeping conditions mostly dry. A few isolated sprinkles cannot be
fully ruled out. Despite the dry conditions, poor to hazardous
boating conditions are forecast to continue, particularly across
the Gulf Stream waters. Southeasterly flow prevails at 15 to 20
knots through Saturday, increasing to 15 to 25 knots on Sunday.
Seas range from 3 to 5 feet through Sunday. By Monday, winds
become more southerly at 15 to 20 knots, with seas remaining
around 2 to 4 feet. Increasing moisture is anticipated locally as
a result of the southerly flow as well as an approaching cold
front, with rain and storm chances forecast to increase across
the local Atlantic waters Monday through Tuesday. Behind the front,
winds veer to out of the north-northwest at 15 to 20 knots, with
seas building to 4 to 6 feet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

VFR conditions prevailing, though brief MVFR conditions may be
possible, should SCT025-030 CIGs become BKN. Breezy to windy
conditions this afternoon, with gusts up to 25 to 30kts. The
highest gusts are forecast along the Treasure Coast. Winds will
begin to decrease this evening, though remain elevated along the
coast overnight south of the Cape (9-12kts). Breezy southeasterly
winds will develop again Friday after 14Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Sensitive fire weather conditions are anticipated across east
central Florida through Monday. Breezy southeast flow is forecast
to continue as a result of an area of high pressure being located
across the western Atlantic, extending towards the Florida
peninsula. Wind speeds will generally remain between 10 to 15 mph,
though gusts to 25 mph cannot be ruled out. Minimum RH values
across the interior are forecast to fall to 35 to 45 percent each
afternoon, with RH values remaining higher along the coast as a
result of the persistent onshore flow. By Monday afternoon, rain
chances increase as a result of an approaching cold front, with
the breezy winds becoming more southerly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  84  66  86 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  69  89  68  90 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  71  83  69  84 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  69  84  69  85 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  69  89  68  90 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  69  88  67  89 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  70  88  68  90 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  69  84  69  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Leahy