759
FXUS62 KMLB 141855
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
Issued by National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
255 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms this
  afternoon and evening with the potential for a couple to a few
  storms capable of frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts up to
  60mph (5-14%), and heavy rainfall with the potential for minor
  flooding; a brief tornado cannot be ruled out (< 2% chance)

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue to
  develop and push eastward and offshore through the afternoon and
  evening hours today before storm coverage decreases into mid to
  late week as drier Saharan air moves across the area

- Hot and humid temperatures will lead to afternoon heat indices
  between 102-107F each day. Make sure to practice heat safety!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight... Latest radar and satellite imagery depict
a west-east oriented cluster of showers and storms currently
moving across northern Lake and Volusia counties. This activity
will continue to track E/SE this afternoon with expanding areal
coverage of convection southward across the area in response to
sea breeze and outflow boundary interactions. SPC maintains a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of isolated severe storms for ECFL
through this evening carrying a primary risk of damaging wind
gusts, as noted in the most recent MCD highlighting a localized
wet microburst potential with stronger convection. A few areas of
localized flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas also
remain possible with heavier and quickly accumulating rainfall
locations. Convection expected to push offshore late evening into
tonight with mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions settling in
overnight.

(from previous discussion)... Wednesday-Thursday...Low level W/SW
flow continues with ridge axis over the West Atlantic near to
south of the area. Model guidance does show even drier air from
the SAL moving into the area, with the GFS showing PW values on
Wednesday dropping to as low as 1.5-1.6 inches. However, models
have struggled with the amount of dry air and even NBM has been
increasing PoPs slightly for this period as we get closer in time.
However, for now the forecast for lower convective coverage
continues, with PoPs ranging from 20-40% each afternoon/evening.
The low level offshore flow and sea breeze collision will continue
to generate at least isolated to scattered showers and storms
across the area, with a few stronger storms still possible.

The decrease in convective coverage will only allow temps to
increase, with more widespread mid 90s for max temps across the
area. Drier air aloft should mix down leading to a decrease in
afternoon dewpoints (as low as upper 60s/low 70s across the
interior), but with the hot temps will still lead to peak heat
index values 100-107F.

Friday-Monday...Mid level ridge extending from the Atlantic and
across the southeast U.S. will gradually break down as trough digs
southward across the eastern United States through the weekend
into early next week. This will keep surface ridge axis near to
south of the area. Moisture gradually rises through the period,
with afternoon/evening shower and storm chances increasing and
returning to more normal values (PoPs around 30-40% Friday and
then 40-50% for much of the area Saturday-Monday). No relief from
the July heat is in sight, with max temps forecast to continue to
range from the low to mid 90s. The added humidity may even push
peak afternoon heat index values a little closer to Heat Advisory
thresholds (108-110F) in some spots. However, most for most areas
values still look to mostly range from 102-107F.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

(modified previous discussion)... Boating conditions will remain
generally favorable through the rest of the week and into early
this weekend, outside of offshore moving thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening hours. High pressure ridge axis over the
west Atlantic will remain near to south of the waters, maintaining
generally west-southwest winds during the overnight and morning
hours, switching to the south-southeast into the afternoon/evening
as the east coast sea breeze forms. Wind speeds are forecast to
remain mostly below 15 knots, with seas 1-3 feet.

Scattered to numerous offshore moving storms remain possible this
afternoon and evening, and will be capable of producing strong to
locally severe wind gusts up to 35-50 knots and frequent
lightning. Coverage of storms then decrease into mid to late week,
becoming isolated to scattered, but a few strong offshore moving
storms will still be possible during the afternoon and evening
hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Showers and storms have developed along a line roughly from north
of LEE east through DAB, and will continue to trek E/SE through
the afternoon and evening in response to prevailing westerly
boundary layer flow and convective outflow. MVFR/LCL IFR
cigs/vsbys with locally gusty/erratic winds will be possible
during passage with VFR conditions otherwise. Convection expected
to clear terminals along/north of ISM-MCO-TIX by around 23Z, and
terminals southward by around 02-03Z, with VFR conditions
remainder of the night with winds decreasing to lgt/vrb.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  92  75  92 /  10  30  10  20
MCO  75  95  77  95 /  30  20  20  20
MLB  76  92  77  92 /  30  20  10  30
VRB  74  93  75  93 /  30  20  10  20
LEE  76  94  77  94 /  10  20  20  10
SFB  75  95  77  95 /  10  20  30  20
ORL  76  94  77  94 /  20  20  20  20
FPR  74  93  74  93 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

TBW