823
FXUS62 KMLB 160700
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
300 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

- Afternoon showers and storms are anticipated across east
  central Florida each day through the middle of next week, with
  storm hazards including lightning strikes, gusty winds, and
  heavy downpours.

- Hot and muggy conditions will persist with highs in the 90s and
  peak heat indices exceeding 100F areawide. Practice heat
  safety!

- A moderate risk of rip currents continues at all east central
  Florida beaches today. Always swim near a lifeguard!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Today-Tonight...Mid-level ridging will break down across the
Florida peninsula as mid-level energy traverses the area today. At
the surface, broad high pressure is anticipated to remain
generally in place, with the ridge axis stationed south of east
central Florida. Persistent weak westerly flow at the surface is
forecast, advecting moisture from the Gulf towards the area. PWATs
are anticipated to exceed 2" areawide once again, resulting in
increasing rain and storm chances locally. The westerly flow both
at the surface and aloft will support easy progression inland of
the west coast sea breeze, with the east coast sea breeze
anticipated to remain a bit closer to the east coast. The sea
breeze collision will be favored across the eastern half of the
peninsula this afternoon, with the greatest coverage of showers
and storms forecast to occur primarily after 2 PM. SBCAPE is
forecast to exceed 2000 J/kg nearly areawide, with steep low-level
lapse rates supporting easy convective development and frequent
lightning strikes. DCAPE ranging between 700-900 J/kg this
afternoon will allow for gusty winds with stronger storms, with
most wind gusts ranging between 45 to 55 mph. Cannot rule out the
potential for wind gusts up to 60 mph, but confidence in this
remains low at this time. While steering flow of 15 to 20 mph will
favor sufficient east to southeastward moving convection, PWATs
of 2"+ means that heavy downpours may produce quick rainfall
accumulations of 1-3" in any given location, with localized
flooding not able to be fully ruled out in some spots. Shower and
storm activity will push offshore across the local Atlantic waters
after 10 PM, with a low chance for some lingering showers and
storms through midnight. Otherwise, anticipate mostly dry
conditions across east central Florida during the overnight hours.

Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue across
east central Florida. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the
low to mid 90s, with peak heat indices ranging from 100-107F.
Those spending extended periods of time outdoors are encouraged to
practice heat safety to help prevent heat-related illness. Drink
plenty of water, take frequent breaks in the shade or an air
conditioned building, and wear lightweight, lightly-colored
clothing. Muggy conditions will continue into the overnight hours,
with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

At the beaches, a moderate risk of rip currents is forecast to
continue today. If heading to the beach, be sure to swim near a
lifeguard and heed the advice of local beach safety officials.

Friday...The mid-level ridging completely breaks down into
Friday, with a mid-level trough developing across the Florida
peninsula. It is anticipated to eventually form into a mid-level
low, with guidance suggesting strengthening beginning during the
overnight hours. At the surface, the ridge axis is forecast to
shift even farther south and become even broader across the
Florida peninsula, with some broad indications of an area of low
pressure developing Friday night across the eastern Gulf near the
peninsula. Overall, this change in the pattern will allow for
continued increasing moisture locally. PWATs areawide will solidly
exceed 2", generally ranging between 2.0-2.2". With the high
continuing to weaken, winds are forecast to remain light and
variable through Friday, though there will still be a broad
westerly component. Winds aloft will also weaken, with a better
chance for a more central peninsula sea breeze collision forecast.
SBCAPE values will increase to 2000-2700 J/kg, though low-level
lapse rates appear slightly less impressive compared to today.
DCAPE values of 700-900 J/kg will continue. Overall, the storm
environment will favor frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up
to 55 mph, and heavy downpours. With weaker winds aloft, there is
an increased potential of slow-moving showers and storms, which
increases the threat of localized flooding across east central
Florida. Rainfall accumulations of 1-3", exceeding 4" in some
spots, will be possible. Activity is forecast to slowly diminish
into the overnight hours.

Temperatures will remain generally in the low to mid 90s areawide
with overnight lows in the 70s. Peak heat indices will once again
range between 100-107F. Practicing heat safety will continue to
be key for those spending extended periods of time outdoors.

Saturday-Wednesday...The mid-level low is anticipated to further
strengthen across the Gulf and near the Florida peninsula into
this weekend, lifting northeastward and stretching into more of a
trough-like pattern into early next week. At the surface, an area
of low pressure is forecast to develop and strengthen across the
northeastern Gulf, lifting northeastward into north Florida and
eventually towards the Carolina coastline into next week. NHC has
marked this area across north Florida and the adjacent Gulf and
Atlantic waters in a 20% chance of tropical development over the
next 7 days. This will continue to be closely monitored over the
coming days.

Locally, regardless of tropical development or not, moisture will
increase across east central Florida thanks to the surface low,
with strengthening south to southwest winds advecting moisture
northward towards the area. Rain and storm chances have continued
to trend upward, generally ranging between 40-70% through this
weekend and into the middle of next week. Trends continue to
suggest a diurnal pattern to convective development each day, with
the greatest shower and storm chances favored during the
afternoon hours when the sea breeze collision occurs. Activity
then will move offshore and out across the local Atlantic waters,
with only isolated shower and storm chances possible into the
overnight hours across the peninsula. Aside from rain and storm
chances, anticipate typical Florida summertime conditions to
persist, with highs near to slightly above normal in the low to
mid 90s and peak heat indices exceeding 100F areawide. Guidance
continues to favor nearing Heat Advisory criteria towards the
middle of next week, but would not be surprised to see a downward
trend in guidance as time continues. This will continue to be
closely monitored. Temperatures into the overnight hours are
anticipated to remain in the 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast across the
local Atlantic waters through Friday. Broad high pressure will
remain situated just south of the local waters, keeping winds out
of the west-southwest at 10 to 15 knots through Friday. Seas of 1
to 3 feet are forecast. This weekend, an area of low pressure is
forecast to develop across the Gulf, causing winds to shift to out
of the south at 15 to 20 knots Saturday through Monday, with wind
speeds slowly subsiding through next week. Seas are anticipated
to build slightly, with some 4 foot seas possible across the
offshore waters.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast to move
offshore through the late evening and overnight hours each day.
Storm hazards will include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts
in excess of 34 knots, heavy downpours, and locally higher seas.
Activity will slowly diminish across the nearshore waters, but
ongoing development across the offshore waters cannot be ruled
out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Light
westerly winds will become west to west-northwest and increase to
5-10 KT by mid morning. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to
form this afternoon and push a little inland, turning the winds
onshore behind the sea breeze. Scattered showers and storms will
begin over the interior around 18-19Z before pushing eastward
towards the coast into late afternoon. Additional showers and
storms are forecast along the sea breeze collision, generally
east of Orlando and near to west of I-95. Any lingering activity
will dissipate or move out of the area by 01Z across the
interior, and 03Z along the coast. Have not included any TEMPOs at
this time due to some lingering uncertainty with timing and
placement of convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  75  91  75 /  60  10  40  20
MCO  94  77  93  75 /  50  20  70  30
MLB  92  77  91  76 /  50  10  60  20
VRB  93  75  92  74 /  30  10  60  20
LEE  92  77  92  76 /  50  30  70  40
SFB  93  77  93  76 /  60  20  70  30
ORL  93  77  92  76 /  60  20  70  30
FPR  93  75  92  74 /  30  10  60  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Watson