017
FXUS62 KMLB 240032
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
832 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

- A HIGH Risk of deadly rip currents and rough surf will persist
  at area beaches this weekend. Do not enter the Ocean!

- Offshore flow and a moist airmass will continue high rain
  chances (~80%) this weekend, with 60-70% early next week.

- Poor boating conditions will linger over the gulf stream waters
  this weekend, with hazardous conditions near inlets during the
  outgoing tide.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Convection is on the wane this evening with most areas dry across
east central FL. For the remainder of the overnight, short range
HRRR guidance continues to indicate convective chances mainly
north of I-4 thru midnight with additional convection also likely
to move in off the Gulf late tonight which may reach Lake county
before sunrise. Have lowered PoPs central and south and kept
chance pops north with the potential for some redevelopment
through late evening and also pre-sunrise moving in from west.

On Sunday, deep moisture will continue across east central FL
with another early round of showers and storms expected across the
north and into the afternoon for the southern Treasure Coast.
Long period northeast swells will continue the High Risk for
strong rip currents at the Atlantic beaches.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Current-Tonight... Earlier start to convection once again today,
with showers and lightning storms having formed across the west
coast of Florida earlier this morning before pushing eastward
across east central Florida, mainly near to north of Orlando,
through the morning hours. Numerous showers and storms shifted
eastward in the offshore flow across central Florida into this
afternoon before pushing offshore as an unsettled weather pattern
continues.

A moist airmass remains in place across the Florida peninsula today
as a frontal boundary stalls across north Florida. The CAMs, while
showing an earlier start to convection, are still a little slow with
today`s activity. However, like yesterday, convection is forecast to
largely shifts offshore through late afternoon and early evening.
Some lingering light debris cloud rainfall as well as some
additional shower and storm development may persist past sunset.
Some stronger storms may still be possible today, producing frequent
lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 40-50 mph and heavy downpours
of 1 to 3 inches, which may lead to minor flooding of roadways and
poor drainage areas especially with repeated rounds of heavy
rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed portions of
ECFL in A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall today, mainly near to
northwest of I-4.

Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal for this time of
year due to the higher rain chances and cloud cover. Afternoon highs
will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Humid conditions will lead to
peak heat indices of 100-105 degrees. Warm and muggy conditions will
continue overnight with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Sunday-Sunday night... A stalled frontal boundary across north
Florida will remain in place, as a moist airmass (PW values 2.0-
2.3")covers the Florida peninsula south of the boundary, producing
high rain chances (80 percent) across the local area. A similar
setup to yesterday, with numerous showers and storms forecast to
develop across west Florida and shift eastward in the offshore
flow across central Florida and offshore as the unsettled pattern
continues. Model guidance indicates an earlier start to shower and
storms once again near to north of Orlando into the morning
hours, with coverage increasing across much of ECFL into the
early/mid afternoon. Convection should then largely shift offshore
through late afternoon and early evening, but some lingering
light debris cloud rainfall as well as some additional shower and
storm development may persist past sunset. Some stronger storms
will be possible, producing frequent lightning strikes, gusty
winds up to 40-50 mph and heavy downpours of 1 to 3 inches, which
may lead to minor flooding of roadways and poor drainage areas
especially with repeated rounds of heavy rainfall. A Marginal Risk
for excessive rainfall persists north of Treasure Coast and
Okeechobee Counties.

Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal due to the higher
rain chances and cloud cover. Afternoon highs will be in the upper
80s to low 90s. Humid conditions will lead to peak heat indices of
100-106 degrees. Warm and muggy conditions will continue
overnight with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Monday-Friday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Stalled front north
of the area is forecast to gradually settle southward across the
area through mid to late week. Rain chances look to generally remain
near to above normal for much of the area through the work week as
the weak front and a moist airmass continues across the area. Rain
chances generally range around 60-70 percent each day, but some
drier air may be able to build in briefly north of the front,
lowering PoPs to around 50 percent north of Orlando Tuesday and
Wednesday. Offshore flow will gradually weaken through early next
week and eventually become onshore by mid to late week, which will
begin to focus greatest coverage of showers and storms inland during
the afternoon/early evening hours.

Highs will be near to slightly above normal, mostly in the low 90s
Monday-Wednesday, but may reach as high as the mid 90s inland on
Tuesday. As rain chances ramp back up into late week as a mid to
upper level trough builds back southward across the area, highs are
forecast to drop back to the upper 80s to low 90s Thursday and
Friday. Lows will continue in the low to mid 70s each night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Today-Wednesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Poor boating
conditions continue across the Gulf Stream for lingering seas up
to 6 feet, and near inlets for long (11-13 sec) period swells.
This long period swell and subsequent hazardous boating conditions
near inlets during the outgoing tides will continue through
today. Seas 4-6 feet tonight into Sunday before subsiding to 3-5
ft Monday, 2-4ft on Tuesday, and 2-3ft on Wednesday. A weak front
moving southward and stalling across north Florida will maintain
offshore winds out of the west-southwest for much of the period,
with winds becoming more northerly on Wednesday. Winds will be 15
KT or less through the period.

A wet pattern will persist through the period, with scattered to
numerous showers and storms pushing eastward and offshore each
afternoon and evening through at least early next week. Some
stronger storms will be possible each day, producing frequent
lightning strikes and gusty winds near or in excess of 34 knots.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 727 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Mainly dry conds this evening with the early start to convection
today. Storms north of KDAB should push into the Atlc through 01z.
Additional isolated showers may develop from KDAB to KLEE thru
04z but chances to low to mention. Expect VFR conds for most of
the night outside of any isold shra. With the low level H9-H7
flow from the WSW at 15-20 knots and deep moisture trailing from
the low pressure area off the SC coast expect Gulf convection to
move onshore and may reach KLEE vcnty before sunrise. Have shifted
TEMPO SHRA/TSRA earlier in the day reaching KSFB-KMCO by mid
morning. Expect later start for KFPR-KSUA corridor as activity
increases in coverage across srn sections by mid afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  89  75  90 /  30  80  30  70
MCO  76  91  75  91 /  20  80  30  70
MLB  76  91  75  91 /  10  80  40  70
VRB  74  92  73  93 /  20  80  30  70
LEE  76  88  75  90 /  30  80  30  70
SFB  76  89  76  90 /  20  80  30  70
ORL  76  90  75  91 /  20  80  30  70
FPR  73  92  73  93 /  20  80  30  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Volkmer
AVIATION...Volkmer