141
FXUS62 KMLB 291813
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
213 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

- A HIGH risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at area
  beaches today. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged!

- Hot temperatures into the first half of the weekend (near record),
  especially over the interior.

- Mostly dry conditions will persist through the work-week, with
  just isolated to scattered showers and isolated lightning storms
  mainly north of Orlando Thursday/Friday afternoons.

- HOT and breezy/gusty on Saturday (pre-frontal), with scattered
  to numerous shower/lightning storm chances developing late
  Saturday afternoon (northward) becoming areawide Saturday night
  thru Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Current-Friday...Weak high pressure ridge axis across the central FL
peninsula today slides southward toward the FL Straits tonight into
Thu, then further seaward Fri with the approach of the next low
pressure system that drops into north FL. This short-lived feature
will begin to lift northward again late Fri/Fri night as another low
pressure system develops across the NW Gulf. Generally dry thru the
period, but we do carry a small threat for ISOLD-SCT showers and
isolated lightning storms Thu/Fri (20-30%) afternoon/early eve,
though most recent model guidance has scaled back further northward
(north of I-4) for any of this activity.

The main headline continues to be the above normal temps Thu-Fri in
the U80s to near 90F at the coast and generally L90s inland.
Generally offshore flow, but we will see an ECSB appearance each
afternoon along the coast. The longer this feature is delayed, the
greater chances for soaring temps at the coast. A Minor to Moderate
HeatRisk will gradually build each day, affecting those who are
sensitive to heat and those without adequate cooling and hydration.
At area beaches, a HIGH risk of rip currents exists today. Heed the
advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags, and signs. Entering the
surf is strongly discouraged!

Will continue to monitor, but patchy fog not inclusive (yet) in the
grids/forecast, but greatest chances may be southward toward Lake
Okeechobee (low-level winds lightest) where we saw some briefly
early this past morning. Min temps Thu-Sat mornings in the 60s
areawide.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Modified.

Sat-Tue...Above normal (near record) temperatures continue Sat as
WSW flow strengthens 15-20 mph with frequent higher gusts (25-30+
mph) ahead of the next cold front. Mostly dry conditions are
forecast through much of Sat before ISOLD to SCT rain (storm)
chances (20-50%) build southward through the Orlando Metro late in
the aftn. Rain chances gradually become more areawide Sat night into
Sun (70-80%) as the front drops south. Will monitor threat
associated with storm evolvement with the best signal for
instability in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee after sunrise Sun.
However, ISOLD to SCT lightning storm chances exist Sat night into
early Sun as low-level shear profiles modestly increase. PWAT values
will soar to 1.80-2.00" in vicinity of the boundary. Weak shortwave
impulses embedded in the near zonal flow will aid convection.

A heavy rain threat may exist Sat night into Sun and the Weather
Prediction Center has placed parts of ECFL within a Marginal Risk
for Excessive Rainfall for Days 4/5. At present, primary storm
threats will be lightning strikes, gusty winds, small hail, and
heavy downpours - potentially leading to minor flooding of low-lying
and prone areas, esp those areas that receive multiple rounds in a
short period. Low rain chances persist Mon and perhaps Tue (esp well
south of Orlando) as the front continues to slowly push through
south Florida.

Highs widely in the L-M90s Sat become widely variable north to south
on Sun (M70s north to L80s near Lake Okee/Treasure Coast) as cloud
cover and rain chances increase and the front moves across the area.
Slightly below normal temps across ECFL Mon (U70s coast to L80s
inland), with a warming trend beginning again on Tue - L80s coast
and M-U80s interior. Mins mostly in the 60s, though M-U50s may be
possible north Lake/northwest Volusia counties.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

High pressure across the central FL peninsula will gradually settle
southward across the FL Straits overnight thru Fri. This will lead a
return to favorable boating conditions thru Fri afternoon as seas
subside to 3-4 ft, then back to 3-5 ft Sat/Sun, locally higher invof
of weekend convection. Light S/SE flow across the waters this
afternoon veers offshore tonight and continuing, except "backing"
onshore 10-15 kts each afternoon Thu/Fri along the coast with sea
breeze formation. Offshore winds then prevail Fri night into the
weekend.

Mostly dry, with isolated to scattered showers and isolated
lightning storms (offshore-moving) over the northern Volusia County
waters Thu aftn and possibly again Fri aftn, as a weak front drops
into north Florida, before retreating northward again late Fri/Fri
night.

A stronger low pressure system will approach the area this weekend,
increasing S/SW winds and coverage of showers and storms, again,
fairly quick, offshore-moving variety. While seas are expected to
build slightly (5-6 ft Sun), winds may increase toward Cautionary
criteria (poor boating) Fri overnight thru Sat night (esp offshore)
and potentially into Sun. Winds will continue to veer N/NNE behind
the front Sat overnight into Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

SW winds persist across the interior terminals through this
afternoon and into the evening hours. Along the coast, the east
coast sea breeze has developed and moved inland, causing winds to
become more onshore at the coastal terminals. Wind speeds
generally around 10 knots. Overnight and into Thursday, winds
become more westerly areawide, generally 5 knots tonight and
picking up to around 10 knots once again Thursday morning. No VIS
or CIG concerns forecast at this time, with mostly dry conditions
through the period at all terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Hot and dry conditions build through late week with low shower and
lightning storm chances, limited to areas generally north of Orlando
Thursday and Friday. West-southwest flow remains less than 15 mph
each afternoon, and this should be enough to limit the east coast
sea breeze`s inland progression. MinRH becomes sensitive across
portions of the interior each day into the weekend with values
falling 35-45%. Generally Good to Very Good afternoon smoke
dispersion is forecast across much of the area this afternoon,
becoming Excellent across portions of the northwest interior. Very
Good to Excellent afternoon dispersion is forecast, again, Thursday
and Friday for much of east central Florida.

A cold front will bring the next chance for wetting rain across much
of the area late Saturday through Sunday. West-southwest flow
increases to 15-20 mph with frequent higher gusts (25-30 mph) on
Saturday ahead of the front which will increase control concerns.
Lightning strikes late this weekend will be an additional concern
for new fire starts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites:

Site   Apr 29     Apr 30     May 1      May 2
DAB    94 (1968)  92 (1953)  94 (2002)  95 (1953)
LEE    94 (2017)  95 (1991)  94 (2017)  95 (1990)
SFB    93 (2017)  93 (1971)  95 (2017)  94 (2010)
MCO    96 (1906)  95 (1971)  96 (1917)  97 (1906)
MLB    91 (1986)  93 (1964)  94 (2002)  95 (2002)
VRB    94 (1986)  91 (1975)  96 (1971)  94 (2002)
FPR    92 (1923)  97 (1971)  93 (2002)  95 (2002)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  89  67  86 /   0  20  10  20
MCO  68  92  69  92 /   0  10   0  10
MLB  68  90  68  87 /   0  10   0   0
VRB  66  90  66  89 /   0  10   0   0
LEE  68  90  69  90 /   0  10   0  10
SFB  68  92  68  91 /   0  10   0  10
ORL  69  91  70  91 /   0  10   0  10
FPR  66  90  65  89 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Tollefsen