227
FXUS62 KMLB 022335
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
635 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 330 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

- Breezy onshore flow will produce rough surf and choppy seas.
  There will be a Moderate to High risk of rip currents at all
  area beaches through this week.

- Isolated to scattered showers will begin to push onshore from
  the Atlantic this evening.

- Temperatures are forecast to trend warmer with afternoon highs
  reaching 85F-87F over the interior mid to late week. Record
  highs are not forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Currently...Hi-res vis sat imagery and radar data show isolated
Atlc showers over the Atlc approaching the FL east coast, likely
associated with the leading edge of an increase in pres
grad/winds. These showers may initially weaken as they approach
the coast due to the sea breeze circulation but will have a better
chance of holding together and crossing the coast early this
evening as the sea breeze circulation weakens. Higher coverage of
showers is forecast south of the Cape overnight and into Tue
morning where moisture is a little higher.

Mid-level ridge strengthens over the Gulf and shifts eastward
across Florida and then the SW Atlantic this week, supporting a
broad area of high pressure at the surface. The sfc high center
will settle over its climatological position over the SW Atlc with
a trailing ridge axis roughly along 30N latitude. Locally, this
will result in an extended period of onshore (E to SE) winds
across east central Florida. This will produce mild overnight lows
along the coast, holding in the 60s and warm afternoon highs
especially over the interior where widespread mid 80s will develop
by mid week and persist into the weekend. Record highs are in the
upper 80s to lower 90s and look out of reach.

Low level moisture combined with the steady and persistent onshore
flow will support isolated to scattered showers pushing onshore
and well inland this week. Occasional lightning strikes and gusty
winds would likely be the primary concerns, with activity likely
remaining sub-severe.

Rough surf and an increase in the rip current risk is forecast at
the local beaches over the coming days. Entering the surf will
not be advised.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Tightening easterly gradient around high pressure will increase
the winds 10-15 knots nearshore and 15-20 knots offshore this
evening. Choppy seas will build to 6 FT offshore so a Caution
headline is posted there and will likely be needed through mid
week. The ridge axis will remain north of the waters with wind
flow veering more out of the southeast Thu-Sat. Pressure gradient
will support a little stronger winds across the southern waters
15-20 knots and 10-14 knots across the northern waters closer to
the ridge axis. The combination of wind wave and swell will
produce 5-6 FT offshore and 4-5 FT nearshore. Isolated to
scattered showers with a few lightning storms possible south of
the Cape.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 632 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF period. Onshore moving
showers from TIX southward this evening are forecast to taper off
over the next couple of hours at TIX and MLB. However, VCSH looks
to continue into Tuesday along the Treasure Coast. NE winds
overnight veer E after 15Z and increase to 9-12 kts. Gusts up to
20 kts are possible along the coast, especially from VRB
southward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  60  77  61  79 /  10  20  10  20
MCO  63  80  65  83 /  10  30   0  30
MLB  63  78  65  79 /  20  30  20  20
VRB  63  79  65  81 /  20  30  20  20
LEE  60  82  63  83 /   0  10   0  30
SFB  60  80  63  83 /  10  20   0  20
ORL  62  80  64  83 /  10  30   0  30
FPR  63  79  64  81 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Leahy