824
FXUS62 KMLB 072346
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
746 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

- A wet weather pattern persists through this week. The main
  storm hazard will continue to be the potential for locally heavy
  rainfall that could lead to mostly minor flooding. Otherwise,
  frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds up to 50 mph will
  also be possible.

- Muggy conditions and seasonably hot temperatures in the upper
  80s to low 90s will continue, with peak afternoon heat indices
  in the triple digits, but below Heat Advisory criteria.

- There is Moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches again
  today. Remember, always swim near a lifeguard and never swim
  alone.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Today-tonight... Upper level high pressure will remain in place
across the Great Plains as an upper level trough continues to push
farther offshore from the NE US coast with its axis sliding down the
Florida peninsula into central Florida. Short wave energy aloft will
continue to traverse across the Florida peninsula through the day,
aiding convection this afternoon and early evening. At the surface,
high pressure is surpressed to our south and east and a weak frontal
boundary is situated across north Florida and is very slowly
shifting southward. This frontal boundary may push into
north/central Florida tonight, but confidence remains low. Locally,
light westerly winds will shift onshore in the afternoon with the
formation of the east coast sea breeze and push inland. The sea
breeze has already formed this afternoon, mainly from Cape Canaveral
southward. The sea breeze collision is forecast to occur along the I-
95 corridor this afternoon/early evening. Storm motion will be light
and north to northwesterly around 10 mph, which will bring activity
back towards the coast and out into the Atlantic.

An earlier start to convection today, as scattered showers and
storms formed across the west coast of Florida and moved into east
central Florida through late morning. Additional storms have moved
into east central Florida and are currently heading toward the
eastern Coast, mainly from Cape Canaveral southward, with trailing
storms around Lake Okeechobee area.  Scattered to numerous showers
and storms are forecast to form this afternoon (PoP 70-80%). Highest
coverage will be along the I-95 corridor this afternoon into early
evening. An earlier start to convection today, with scattered
showers and storms moving across east central Florida, mainly
Kissimmee to Melbourne northward, late this morning through early
this afternoon. Forecast soundings show a moist profile, although
not as moist as it has been the past couple of days, with PW values
of 2.0-2.3". The environment supports convection, with plenty of
instability (MUCAPE of 1800-2200 J/kg), adequate buoyancy (lifted
index of -5 to -6), and sufficient downdraft potential (DCAPE 500-
800 J/kg). Temperatures aloft are slightly warmer than they were
yesterday (-6 to -6.5C at 500 mb). Because of this, main storm
hazards will be frequent lightning, gusty winds of 40-50 mph, and
torrential downpours capable of 2-4" in a relatively short period of
time, promoting minor/nuisance flooding in urban and poor drainage
areas. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has a Marginal (level 1
of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall for all of east central Florida
today.

Seasonable and humid today, with  afternoon highs in the upper 80s
to low 90s. These temperatures combined with high humidity will
produce peak heat indices of 100-107F. Warm and muggy conditions
will continue overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Tuesday-Sunday... Upper level high pressure across the Great Plains
will shift eastward through mid week as the trough off the eastern
US coast shifts farther eastward, with the trough axis remaining
over the central Florida through Tuesday. At the surface, a weak
frontal boundary across north Florida may push farther southward
into north-central to central Florida Tuesday before washing out.
Mostly diurnal convection through the period with fairly high rain
chances through the period, 40-70% Tuesday, and 60-70% Wednesday-
Sunday. Storm motion will be fairly weak and erratic, however some
activity will periodically push back towards the coast, especially
with stronger boundary collisions. Storm impacts will be similar to
today, with locally heavy rainfall continuing to be a concern.
Seasonable temperatures and humid conditions are forecast each day,
with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and heat indices of 100-107.
Warm and muggy conditions will continue overnight, with lows in the
low to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Today-Friday... Generally favorable boating conditions through the
period. Surface high pressure has been pushed south/east of the
local waters leaving a fairly weak pgrad in place. A weak frontal
boundary will move into north FL early today and continue to settle
further south tonight/Tue toward/into central FL. Westerly flow
today will become S/SE at 10-12 KT this afternoon as the east coast
sea breeze forms. With the advancing boundary, winds tonight will
shift offshore south of the Cape and more N/NE northward thru the
night. On Tuesday, winds will shift south to southeast with speeds
increasing at 10-12 kts with the sea breeze development each
afternoon through the period. Expect earlier initiation of storms
developing over land and pushing off of the coast today with initial
isolated to scattered storms becoming locally numerous to
widespread. Diurnal offshore- moving showers/storms through mid-
late week. A few strong storms possible with primary impacts of
frequent lightning, gusty winds in excessive of 34 KT or greater,
and heavy downpours. Coverage of storms will be fairly high early
to mid week. Seas locally higher in the vicinity of storms. Seas
1-2 ft thru tonight, building to 2-4 ft again by Tuesday
afternoon. Seas continue 3-4 ft on Wednesday, possibly 5 ft across
the Volusia waters into Wednesday evening gradually subsiding to
2-3ft Wednesday night-Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 746 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Prevailing light rain is forecast across the interior terminals
through around 02Z, remaining VFR. Otherwise, VCSH mentioned along
the coast from MLB northward as showers diminish through the
evening. Light and variable winds overnight become established out
of the east tomorrow. VCTS at all terminals tomorrow as the east
coast sea breeze moves inland.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  88  77  89 /  30  40  20  60
MCO  75  91  76  91 /  40  60  30  70
MLB  76  89  77  90 /  30  30  30  50
VRB  74  89  76  90 /  30  40  30  50
LEE  75  90  75  91 /  40  70  30  70
SFB  75  89  76  91 /  20  60  20  70
ORL  76  90  76  91 /  40  60  30  70
FPR  74  89  75  89 /  30  40  30  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Law