886
FXUS62 KMLB 160620
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
220 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

- High risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through the
  weekend; entering the ocean is strongly discouraged

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions are forecast across the
  local Atlantic waters through Friday night

- Isolated showers across the local waters and along the immediate
  coast today with dry conditions forecast through this weekend
  and into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Today-Tonight...A weak boundary drifts southward across the local
Atlantic waters today through tonight, with some slightly higher
moisture present out ahead of the boundary. This will lead to
continued development of isolated showers out across the local
Atlantic waters, with persistent, breezy northeast flow causing
some activity to push onshore along the coast. Conditions are
anticipated to remain mostly dry across the interior, though an
isolated shower or two may be able to move farther inland. PoPs
are forecast to remain between 15 to 20%. Storms are not
anticipated to develop with the activity today. As mentioned,
winds are forecast to remain breezy today, with wind speeds
generally between 10 to 15 mph. Gusts to 25 mph will be possible,
especially along the coast. Temperatures reach the low to mid 80s
this afternoon, falling into the mid 60s to low 70s overnight. A
high risk of rip currents continues at all east central Florida
beaches today. Entering the surf is not advised.

Friday-Wednesday...The weak boundary moves south of the local the
Atlantic waters early Friday, with an area of high pressure
forecast to build across the southeastern U.S. late this week into
the weekend. This will keep conditions dry and sunny, with winds
veering to out of the east-northeast and temperatures remaining in
the low to mid 80s in the afternoons. Sunday into Monday, the
surface high shifts eastward out over the Atlantic as a decaying
frontal boundary approaches Florida. Guidance has continued to
back off of rain chances across east central Florida Sunday night
into Monday, with the NBM now calling for less than a 15% chance
of rain. Will continue to monitor this trend in the guidance and
adjust the forecast as needed, but currently maintain mostly dry
conditions through the remainder of the weekend and into early
next week. Southeast winds on Sunday become easterly once again
Monday and through the remainder of the week, with guidance
hinting at local wind enhancements from the east coast sea breeze
in the afternoons. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid
to upper 80son Sunday and remain there through the middle of next
week.

Don`t let pleasant weather fool you, hazards can still be present
even during blue sky days. Hazardous conditions at the beaches
are anticipated to continue, with a high risk of rip currents
forecast through late this week and into the weekend. Residents
and visitors are strongly discouraged from entering the ocean.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

A weak boundary moving southward across the local Atlantic waters
today into Friday will lead to not only isolated shower
development, but also poor to hazardous boating conditions. Breezy
northeast winds at 15 to 20 knots and seas of 5 to 8 feet are
forecast across the local waters through at least Friday night. A
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect across the offshore waters,
with the nearshore Treasure Coast waters joining the advisory at
8 PM tonight. Small craft are encouraged to exercise caution
across the remaining nearshore waters. Conditions slowly begin to
improve late Friday.

As high pressure settles across the area this weekend, easterly
winds subside to 10 to 15 knots and seas fall to 3 to 5 feet. A
brief period of southeasterly winds on Sunday veer to out of the
east once again through the middle of next week. Dry conditions
are anticipated to continue, though the approach of a weakening
frontal boundary late Sunday into Monday could lead to a stray
shower or two.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR conditions prevailing. However, brief MVFR CIG/VIS will be
possible in isolated SHRA pushing S/SW and onshore. Coverage of
showers is forecast to remain limited, mostly along the coast
south of MLB. Have maintained VCSH through the overnight and Thu
for coastal terminals (MLB/VRB/FPR/SUA). Otherwise, mostly dry
conditions continue at MCO/SFB. North winds 5-7 knots thru 12Z
will veer NNE through the morning and increase to 10-15 knots with
higher gusts near 20 knots, especially along the coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  68  80  64 /   0  10   0   0
MCO  84  68  83  63 /   0  10   0   0
MLB  83  70  81  68 /  20  20   0   0
VRB  84  71  82  67 /  20  20   0   0
LEE  84  64  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  84  66  82  63 /   0  10   0   0
ORL  84  67  83  63 /   0  10   0   0
FPR  84  70  81  66 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for AMZ555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for AMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Friday for AMZ572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Kelly