265
FXUS62 KMLB 292319
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
719 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

- Dangerous heat conditions today. An Extreme Heat Warning is in
  effect for areas along and north of I-4 today, with a Heat
  Advisory across the remainder of east central Florida. A Heat
  Advisory has been issued for all of ECFL tomorrow from noon to 7
  PM. Heat Advisory conditions will continue for much of east
  central Florida for most of this week.

- Residents and visitors are encouraged to take proper heat safety
  actions to prevent heat illness and know the signs of heat
  exhaustion and heat stroke. Stay cool, stay hydrated, stay
  informed.

- Near to below normal shower and storm chances continue today,
  then return to near-normal through mid to late week, especially
  over the interior.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight... Mid-level ridge across TX/AR/LA region and
extending across the Deep South will remain in place. The Atlantic
ridge axis will begin to develop today and will build westward
towards the Florida peninsula by tonight. At the surface, high
pressure across the region will begin to weaken through the time
period. Locally, S/SW winds will dominate and will bring a slight
increase in moisture across east central Florida which will impact
heat indices. The main story today will continue to be extreme and
dangerous heat across the local area, especially along and north of
the I-4 corridor this afternoon, including the greater Orlando area.
Near record highs continue this afternoon, with highs forecast to
reach in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees.  These temperatures
coupled with increased moisture, will produce peak heat indices of
110-115 degree. Thus, an Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for
Lake, Volusia, Orange, Seminole, and Osceola Counties until 7 PM
this evening. A Heat Advisory remains in effect across the remainder
of east central Florida for highs in the mid to upper 90s and peak
heat indies of 108-112 degrees.

The increase in moisture will also lead to a little greater coverage
of convection this afternoon, mainly across the interior. There is a
low to medium (30-40 percent) chance for showers and lightning
storms across this area later this afternoon and into early evening.
The 15Z XMR sounding shows some drier air aloft, which will support
some storms becoming stronger this afternoon. Main storm hazards
today will be frequent lightning strikes, strong wind gusts to 40-50
mph, and locally heavy rainfall. Any lingering activity will
diminish in the evening, with overnight conditions remaining very
warm and muggy. Lows are forecast in the mid to upper 70s with some
spots along and NW of I-4 that are forecast not to fall below 80
degrees. This may lead to some additional warm minimum temperatures
being tied or broken.

Wednesday-Friday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Mid-level ridge
is reinforced across the area from mid to late week, continuing
abnormally hot and humid conditions across the area. The surface
subtropical ridge axis will remain south of the area, producing a
relatively light low level W/SW flow across the region. This will
still allow the east coast sea breeze to form but will have a slower
progression inland, allowing highs to still rise to the mid to upper
90s on Wednesday and low to mid 90s Thursday and Friday, as rain
chances will gradually be on the rise. Still, peak heat index values
are forecast to reach up to 106-112 degrees, with some areas north
of Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast potentially still
nearing extreme heat conditions (heat indices near 113 degrees) on
Wednesday. However, for now, have issued a Heat Advisory for all of
ECFL for Wednesday from noon until 7 PM.  Additional Heat Advisories
will likely be need for portions if not all of east central Florida
Thursday and Friday. The complicating factor remains the increase in
shower and lightning storm activity through mid to late week. This
increase in showers and storms will help provide some relief to the
heat in the afternoon. Because of this increase in moisture and
storm chances, confidence that portions of ECFL will reach Extreme
Heat Warning criteria are not high. So have opted to just have a
Heat Advisory for the whole area for now.

Shower and storm chances rise to more normal values around 30-50
percent, with greatest storm coverage across the interior where
boundary collisions are favored. A few stronger storms will continue
to be possible each afternoon/evening.

Saturday-Monday... (Modified Previous Discussion) A frontal boundary
will shift gradually southward and stall across north Florida during
the weekend into early next week, with ridge axis remaining south of
the area. This will increase moisture and rain chances through the
period and finally begin to put an end to the unusually hot and
humid conditions. There is a medium to high (50-70 percent) chance
of rain and storms across the region each day. Highs will still
reach the mid 90s across much of the region Saturday, but then fall
to the low to mid 90s Sunday and Monday, with peak heat index values
closer to around 100-107 degrees. Overnight lows are forecast to be
in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Rest of today-Sunday.... Favorable boating conditions are
forecast through the weekend, with hot and humid conditions
persisting as a weak reinforcing Atlantic ridge axis shifts
westward towards the Florida peninsula. High pressure axis will
generally remain south of the area through the period. This will
result in S/SW winds to dominate each day before backing to the
southeast each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and
pushes inland. Wind speeds will generally remain below 15 KT. Seas
1-2 ft in the nearshore waters and up to 3 ft at times in the
offshore waters. Isolated showers will be possible today, but
coverage of showers and storms will increase mid to late week,
with isolated to scattered showers and storms forecast to develop
over the waters each day, especially during the morning and
overnight hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 719 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Outflow collisions near MCO will require VCTS/TEMPO for TS another
hour or so until convection subsides. There have been some
occasionally strong gusts with the storms today, so monitoring
those trends closely as well. On Wednesday, the dominant wind flow
becomes SW`erly pushing sea breeze collisions toward the eastern
half of the state. Expect scattered storms after 19Z with
potentially more activity at the coastal sites as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  95  78  94 /  10  40  10  40
MCO  79  98  79  96 /  20  50  20  50
MLB  78  95  78  93 /  10  40  10  40
VRB  75  95  75  93 /  10  40  10  40
LEE  80  95  78  95 /  30  50  20  40
SFB  79  98  78  96 /  20  50  20  50
ORL  80  98  79  96 /  20  50  20  50
FPR  75  94  74  93 /  10  40  10  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ041-044>046-
     053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-
     747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Heil