241
FXUS62 KMLB 261845
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
245 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

- An active weather pattern persists over the next several days,
  with a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather on Friday.

- Heat continues to be a concern over the next few days, as peak
  heat indices reach 100 to 105. Proper precautions should be
  taken to prevent heat-related illnesses. Look before you lock!

- Moderate risk of rip currents continues at area beaches through
  the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Current-Tonight...Coverage of showers and storms has increased
this afternoon as the east coast sea breeze has moved inland, with
recorded wind gusts of up to 45 mph out of some storms. Still
anticipating building coverage across the interior through the
remainder of this afternoon, though confidence in seeing severe
storms has decreased. Still cannot rule out lightning strikes,
wind gusts to 50 mph, small hail, and brief heavy downpours. Lake
County continues to be highlighted in a Marginal Risk (1/5) for
severe weather, but as mentioned, confidence in realizing severe
storms remains low. Activity is forecast to diminish along the
coast after 5 PM, and across the interior after 8 PM. Beyond 8
PM, mostly dry conditions are forecast for east central Florida.
Ongoing shower and storm activity cannot be ruled out across the
local Atlantic waters, and some of this may move onshore along the
Treasure Coast overnight. Light south to southwest winds are
forecast to develop overnight as the ridge axis drapes across the
area and even shifts slightly south of the area. Overnight lows
remain near normal in the low to mid 70s.

Friday-Sunday...The mid-level low shifts northward towards the
southeastern U.S. on Friday, becoming more of a trough into the
weekend. At the surface, the Atlantic high is forecast to remain
over the waters, with the ridge axis slowly drifting southward
and extending across central Florida through the weekend. The
result is prevailing south to southwest flow at the surface,
helping to advect moisture northward and keeping PWATs in the 1.8
to 2.0" range. As the east coast sea breeze develops each
afternoon and moves inland, shower and storm coverage is forecast
to increase. Have kept PoPs 50 to 70 percent through the end of
the work week and into the weekend, with ongoing activity possible
across the offshore waters during the overnight hours.

Storms will continue to be possible across east central Florida
each day, with up to a 50 percent chance of development. Steering
flow becomes more southwesterly over the next few days, leading to
greater chances for the sea breeze collision to occur across the
central and eastern portions of the peninsula. Based on modeled
soundings, steep low level lapse rates are anticipated to
continue, which would help support storm development. However,
modest SBCAPE and DCAPE values are forecast, with 500mb
temperatures warming to around -8C, which may limit development
slightly. Overall, the main storm threats continue to be lightning
strikes, gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours. Friday,
the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted all of east central
Florida in a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather, with a 5
percent chance for wind gusts reaching 60 mph.

Temperatures are forecast to continue climbing into the low 90s
Friday and Saturday, falling slightly into the upper 80s to low
90s on Sunday. Peak heat indices reaching 100 to 105 remains
possible, though confidence in this on Sunday is lower. Lows
remain in the low to mid 70s through the weekend.

Monday-Independence Day (previous modified)...Mid to upper level low
pressure moves into the area once again next week, as the surface
Atlantic ridge axis slowly drifts southward across the peninsula.
Thus, deep moisture looks to linger into Independence Day. Combined
with an increasing southwesterly flow and support aloft, this would
lead to high shower and storm coverage and afternoon sea breeze
collisions over the eastern half of the peninsula through the week,
should this forecast hold. For now, have kept PoPs 50-70% through
the extended due to uncertainty at this time scale. Temperatures
remain near to slightly above normal in the lower 90s. However,
increasing humidity will see heat indices creep up each day,
reaching 100-105 degrees. A return of widespread Moderate HeatRisk
also looks possible mid-week, meaning sensitive groups and those not
acclimated to the Florida heat will be more susceptible to heat
stress.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

An active weather pattern is forecast to continue across the local
Atlantic waters over the next several days. While the Atlantic
high is forecast to stay situated across the local waters, a moist
airmass will also remain in place, allowing for continued shower
and storm development. Any storms that develop may produce
lightning strikes, gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours.
Activity is also anticipated to continue developing during the
overnight hours, especially across the offshore waters.

Outside of convection, the aforementioned Atlantic high will help
keep boating conditions relatively favorable. South to southwest
winds remain below 15 knots through the period, occasionally
becoming more southeasterly closer to the coast each afternoon as
the sea breeze develops and moves onshore. Seas generally 1 to 3
feet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Increasing moisture and disturbance aloft combined with ECSB
moving well inland during the afternoon/evening; with SCT-NMRS
convection forecast though CAMs remain unimpressive with PoP
chances. Ongoing convection across the Space/Treasure coasts with
activity beginning to pop up over the interior. Continue VCTS
with TEMPO groups as necessary for coastal TAF sites. Have VCTS at
interior TAF sites with TEMPO groups well inland 18Z-22Z period.
It appears most convection expected to diminish or push west of
the inland sites by around 23Z. There could be some periodic
onshore-moving SHRA until after 06Z for coastal TAF sites, and
afterwards the storm steering flow becomes SSW/SW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  90  74  91 /  20  60  40  70
MCO  74  93  75  93 /  20  70  40  70
MLB  74  90  75  91 /  30  70  40  70
VRB  72  91  72  91 /  40  60  40  70
LEE  74  91  75  91 /  20  70  30  70
SFB  74  93  75  93 /  20  70  40  70
ORL  74  93  77  93 /  20  70  40  70
FPR  70  90  71  91 /  40  60  40  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Sedlock