048
FXUS62 KMLB 101748
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
148 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 201 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

- Locally heavy rainfall will remain possible through this
  weekend, as wet pattern continues, with slow-moving showers and
  storms. A few storms will be capable of wind gusts to near 50
  mph.

- Muggy conditions and seasonably hot temperatures in the upper
  80s to low 90s will continue to produce peak afternoon heat
  indices in the triple digits, but below Heat Advisory criteria.

- There is Moderate Risk for rip currents today at east central
  Florida beaches. Remember to always swim near a lifeguard and
  never swim alone!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Today-Tonight...Strong mid/upper level ridging over the Carolinas
moves eastward today. Meanwhile the Atlantic ridge axis begins to
organize off of the Florida east coast. Prior to sunrise, a few
showers are present over the local Atlantic waters, moving NE
towards the coast. Most of this activity is weakening as it
approaches the more stable land mass of the peninsula. However, a
few showers will remain possible along the coast into the early
morning hours.

Light onshore flow this morning becomes SE this afternoon as the
sea breeze develops, but remains under 10 mph. Deep moisture, with
PWATs 2.2-2.3"+, lingers over the peninsula today, with 50-60%
coverage of showers and storms forecast once again. Convection is
forecast to begin just inland from the coast by around 2 PM, then
push into the interior through the afternoon, with a collision
near the Orlando metro near to just after rush hour. Slightly
lower PoPs for the coast (40-50%), with slow and erratic
propagation persisting over the interior into the evening hours. A
few strong storms cannot be ruled out, mainly along the
collision, with DCAPE near 800 J/kg. However, the main threat
looks to be locally heavy rainfall due to slow moving storms,
which could lead to minor flooding concerns. Showers and storms
look to slowly diminish through the evening, with drier conditions
inland by midnight. A few showers or a storm will remain possible
along the Treasure Coast overnight.

High temperatures in the lower to mid-90s and high humidity will
lead to heat indices just below Heat Advisory criteria at 102-107
degrees. Be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if
spending time outside in the heat of the day. Overnight lows are
forecast to remain in the 70s.

Friday-Sunday...The Atlantic ridge strengthens Friday and into
the weekend, as mid to upper level ridging moves off of the
eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, the surface ridge axis establishes
itself over the central Florida peninsula. Prevailing light
southerly flow becomes SSE in the afternoons as the sea breeze
develops and moves inland. Despite a slightly stronger east coast
breeze, expect a collision over the interior each afternoon, with
deep PWATs 2-2.3" supporting PoPs 60-70%. The mid- level ridge
axis is forecast to be slightly farther south, producing light
offshore steering flow. While a majority of storm propagation will
be erratic and slow, a drift towards the east coast through the
evening hours will be possible. A few strong storms cannot be
ruled out, with gusts near 50 mph, due to 500mb temperatures -7C
and perhaps a small intrusion of Saharan Air Layer in the mid-
levels. However, the main threat looks to be heavy rainfall from
slow moving storms and deep moisture. Any slow moving storm will
be capable of a quick 1-3" and could lead to minor flooding
concerns, especially in areas that see multiple rounds.

Scattered showers and storms are forecast to linger into the
evening hours over the interior along the sea breeze collision.
Then, drier conditions develop for the overnight. But, onshore
flow will maintain the chance for a few showers or a storm
(20-30%) along the Treasure Coast overnight and into the morning.
Highs in the lower 90s and muggy conditions will continue to
produce heat indices 102-107 degrees, just shy of Heat Advisory
criteria, while lows remain in the 70s.

Monday-Thursday...Strong ridging develops through the column next
week near the Carolinas, weakening the Atlantic ridge. This will
lead to strengthening onshore flow, perhaps even ENE at times,
around 10-15 mph. This wind regime would favor a dominant east
coast sea breeze and, in theory, lower coverage for the local CWA.
However, models differ on the amount of available moisture present
and how that will affect coverage of any onshore-moving showers
and storms. Thus, the current forecast maintains near to slightly
above normal PoPs 40-70%. Onshore flow, breezy at times in the
afternoons, looks to keep high temperatures near normal in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. But, coastal areas are forecast to linger
in the upper 70s to near 80 overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 201 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions outside of convection will
persist through the weekend. The strengthening Atlantic ridge will
develop its axis over the local waters through the period,
supporting a dominant east coast sea breeze. Light S winds become
SE at 10 kts or less near the coast as the sea breeze develops in
the afternoons. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will
remain a threat, even overnight. Late day, offshore-moving
convection will be an increasing threat into the weekend, as
steering flow aloft becomes offshore. A few storms will be capable
of wind gusts to near 40 kts. Seas 2-4 ft today become
1-2 ft by this weekend.

Strengthening high pressure near the Carolinas next week will
develop increasing onshore (E/NE) flow. Boating conditions may
deteriorate slightly at times, as winds increase to 10-15 kts.
Otherwise, showers and storms will remain a threat, with seas 2-3
ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 148 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Scattered showers and storms are already forming along the east
coast sea breeze near the I-95 corridor. This activity will
continue to increase in coverage across the interior this
afternoon, with late day boundary collisions favored near to just
west of the inland I-4 corridor. Have VCTS starting off along the
coast and KSFB, and then expanding to remainder of inland TAF
sites at 19Z. Tempo windows for MVFR cig/vis impacts included for
KDAB/KTIX from 18-20Z and inland from 19-23Z. Also, have a PROB30
group continuing for KMLB from 18-20Z. Isolated strong storms will
be possible, producing strong wind gusts, frequent lightning and
locally heavy downpours. Storms should largely diminish by 01-02Z,
but some lingering areas of rain and isolated storms may still be
possible through late evening.

East-southeast winds increase up to 8-11 knots behind the inland
moving sea breeze, with winds remaining mostly light and somewhat
variable ahead of this boundary. Multiple outflow boundaries and
storms will likely lead to varying wind directions into the
afternoon. Light and variable winds then forecast overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  91  75  91 /  20  60  10  70
MCO  76  92  76  93 /  20  60  20  70
MLB  77  91  77  91 /  20  50  20  70
VRB  75  90  75  90 /  20  50  30  70
LEE  76  91  76  92 /  40  60  30  80
SFB  75  92  76  92 /  20  60  20  70
ORL  76  91  77  92 /  20  60  20  70
FPR  75  90  75  89 /  20  50  30  80

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wishard
AVIATION...Weitlich