479
FXUS62 KMLB 071912
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
312 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

- Dangerous beach and marine conditions will continue, including
  coastal flooding, life-threatening rip currents, and rough surf
  with minor to moderate beach erosion especially near times of
  high tide.

- Breezy and gusty onshore winds will continue through much of
  this week.

- A cold front passes central Florida late week, bringing a more
  fall-like airmass late this weekend and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Rest of Today-Wednesday...An impressive amount of showers continue
to stream onshore into the Treasure Coast along a convergent
boundary stretching from the Bahamas early this afternoon, as
satellite imagery shows dry air continues to increase across the
area. A bit of an uncertain forecast through the remainder of the
afternoon, as CAMs struggle with onshore moving convection and
convergence bands. However, much drier air (PWATs falling below
1.5") is still expected to move into the area by this evening.
Thus, still expecting PoPs to decrease through the afternoon
hours, with only a slight chance (25% or less) for a few lingering
showers across the St Lucie and Martin County coasts. Dry air
already in the mid-levels will reduce the lightning chances,
though a few strikes cannot be ruled out through the afternoon. Rainfall
accumulations up to 1-2" will remain possible in training
showers, but most areas should see minimal amounts. Overnight lows
in the 70s.

Ridging persists in the mid-levels Wednesday, with PWATs 1.3-1.6".
Thus, expect to see much lower coverage of showers overall, with
PoPs 20% or less for Brevard/Osceola Counties northward. Higher
moisture will linger across southern Florida and the Straits.
Therefore, southern portions of the forecast area will see the
highest moisture and continuing PoPs up to 30-50%. Any training
will once again support the threat for minor flooding, but overall
accumulations are forecast to remain low, as will thunder chances.
Breezy onshore winds will slacken as the pressure gradient relaxes
slightly. However, winds up to 10-15 mph are still expected,
especially along the coast, with gusts to around 20 mph. Lower
cloud and shower coverage will allow for temperatures to increase
into the mid to upper 80s, possibly near 90 over in the interior.

Beach conditions will remain hazardous, with a High Risk for rip
currents and minor coastal flooding during periods around high
tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect, though are
planning to let the High Surf Advisory expire as planned at 5 PM
today, as seas continue to diminish.

Thursday-Friday...Mid-level ridging breaks down late week, as an
upper level trough digs into the Southeast and deepens, dragging
a cold front through the Florida peninsula on Friday. Deeper
moisture will build from south to north through the period,
increasing PWATs to around 2" once again. PoPs respond
accordingly, becoming 40-70% Thursday and Friday. The highest
chances will remain along the coast, as onshore flow continues.
Will need to monitor the threat for locally heavy rainfall,
especially in areas that have seen heavy rainfall over the last
several days. Increasing coverage of showers and scattered storms
will help to cool temperatures down to near normal again, with
highs in the lower to mid-80s.

After a brief, small break from gusty winds Wednesday, winds will
once again increase into late week, as the pressure gradient
tightens and the front moves through the area. Northeast winds
10-20 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph are forecast, highest along the
coast. Gusty onshore winds and high astronomical tides will
maintain and even increase the coastal flooding threat into
Friday. P-ETTS guidance maintains minor coastal flooding and
will locally monitor the need for a Coastal Flood Warning through
the period. For now, a Coastal Flood Advisory has been extended
through Thursday afternoon, which appears to be the minimum at
this time.

Saturday-Tuesday...Models are in fairly good agreement that a
non-tropical low will develop along the frontal boundary offshore
from the Southeast US into the weekend. The location of this low
will determine exact impacts to the local area. However, what has
higher confidence is that drier air will move into the Florida
peninsula on the western side of the low and coastal flooding
concerns/hazardous beach and boating conditions will persist.
Currently, have PoPs lingering around 30-40% on Saturday before
much drier air advects southward Sunday and into early next week.
At this time, have no mentionable PoPs over land areas Sunday-
Tuesday. Windy northeast winds Saturday as the low develops look
to weaken through the period, but once again remain breezy each
afternoon. What is perhaps most welcome is forecast dewpoints in
the lower to mid-60s Sunday onward, leading to overnight lows in
the 60s area-wide. Fall-like high temperatures in the lower 80s
(possibly upper 70s along the Volusia County coast) are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Hazardous boating conditions continue, as seas continue to slowly
subside. Wave heights up to 8-9ft into this evening will diminish
to 4-6ft by Wednesday morning. Thus, the Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect through 8 AM Wednesday. Easterly winds 20-25 kts
will also slacken to 15-20 kts. However, boating conditions will
remain poor and small craft will need to exercise caution. By late
week, an approaching front will once again lead to hazardous
boating conditions into the weekend, with increasing north to
northeast winds and building seas, as a low pressure system
develops offshore into the weekend.

Drier air moving into the area will decrease shower chances
through Wednesday, before increasing moisture leads to multiple
rounds of showers once again late week and into the weekend.
Scattered showers will remain possible along and offshore from the
Treasure Coast Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 137 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Scattered showers and isolated storms are ongoing this afternoon,
mainly from VRB southward along the coast, and west of SFB across
the interior. Have maintained VCSH for all interior sites and
from MLB northward, and VCTS from VRB southward at the start of
the TAF. This main line across the Treasure Coast will continue to
shift southward over the next hour or two. Have added a TEMPO for
FPR (18/19Z) for MVFR conditions in the SHRA/TSRA. Latest CAMs
shows convection ending across ECFL around 20Z. So have taken all
mention of rain out of TAFs starting around 20Z. E/SE winds
10-15KT gusts 20-25KT this afternoon will decrease to 5-10KT
overnight, with coastal sites 8-12KT with gusts to 20KT
remaining, especially from VRB southward. Winds become E/NE
Wednesday morning, increasing to 5-10KT by mid-morning across the
interior, and 10-15KT with gusts 20-25KT along the coast.
While most locations will remain mostly dry Wednesday, the latest
CAMS continue to show scattered showers and isolated lightning
storms being possible, especially across the south, starting in
the morning. So have added VCSH starting at 15Z for VRB
southward. VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  85  74  83 /   0  10  20  50
MCO  72  88  74  86 /   0  20  20  50
MLB  76  86  75  84 /  10  20  30  60
VRB  76  86  75  85 /  20  30  40  70
LEE  71  89  72  86 /   0  10  10  30
SFB  72  88  73  85 /   0  20  20  50
ORL  72  88  74  85 /   0  20  20  40
FPR  76  86  74  85 /  20  30  40  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ550-552-555-
     570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Watson