667
FXUS62 KMLB 111039
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
639 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

- Coverage of showers and storms return to a more typical
  summertime pattern this week.

- With slightly lower rain chances this week, temperatures
  approach the low to mid 90s with heat index values 102 to 107+
  degrees.

-There is a Moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches
 through at least mid week.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Today-Tuesday... Mid-level high pressure across the region will
gradually shift westward through the period. Surface high pressure
off the New England coast will slowly shift south and eastward into
the western Atlantic, with the axis remaining over the Florida
peninsula. Locally, southeast winds will dominate with speeds around
10 mph or less across the interior, and 10-15 mph with gusts up to
20 mph along the coast as the pressure gradient continues to weaken.
The deep moisture that has been in place over east central
Florida for the past several days has shifted away, with drier air
infiltrating the mid and upper levels. This will result in
convection returning to a more typical summertime pattern. There
is a medium (50-60 percent) chance for rain and storms each
afternoon and evening, with the greatest coverage favoring the
interior. Forecast soundings shows sufficient low level moisture
(~2.0"), warmer temperatures aloft (-5.6 C at 500 mb), adequate
instability (MUCAPE ~1800 J/kg), and drier air in the mid and
upper levels, which may lead to gustier storms. Thus, the main
storm hazards will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of
40-50 mph, and locally heavy down pours.

Temperatures overall will be on an upward trend this week as rain
and storm chances decrease. Afternoon highs will be in the low
90s along the coast, and low to mid 90s across the interior. These
temperatures coupled with humidity will produce peak heat indices
of 102 to 107 degrees each afternoon. Warm and muggy conditions
will persist overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Wednesday-Sunday... Mid-level high pressure centered over the
Florida peninsula on Wednesday will continue to shift westward into
the eastern Gulf into Thursday, and N/NW Gulf by the weekend. At the
surface, high pressure in the western Atlantic will continue to
build westward over the Florida peninsula through the period, while
slowly shifting northward. Locally, E/SE winds will dominate each
day before backing offshore each night. The pressure gradient will
remain weak, with wind speeds generally 10 mph or less. Ample
moisture will be in place with PW values around 1.8-2.0", but could
increase to over 2" by the weekend. This will support a medium (50-
60 percent) chance for rain and storms each afternoon and evening,
with the greatest coverage occurring across the interior.

The warming trend will continue as rain chance return to a more
typical pattern for this time of year. Afternoon highs will be in
the low to mid 90s each day. These temperature coupled with
humidity will produce peak heat indices of 102-107 degrees. The
potential exists for isolated higher values for heat indices,
which would be close to heat advisory criteria. Thus, will
continue to monitor these values. Overnight conditions will remain
warm and muggy with lows generally in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Today-Friday... Generally favorable boating conditions through the
period outside of showers and lightning storms. Southeast winds will
dominate with wind speeds of 10-15 KT today before decreasing to
around 10 KT or less from Tuesday onward as the pressure gradient
over the waters slackens. Seas 3-4ft today will subside to 2-3ft by
Tuesday and remain for the rest of the week. Rain and storm chances
return to a typical summertime pattern this week, with the highest
coverage forecast to occur well inland. However, any storms that do
occur over the local waters will be capable of producing gusty
winds, frequent lightning strikes, and heavy downpours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 634 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

IFR CIGs occasionally becoming BKN008-012 from SFB westward
(including MCO). Expect this cloud deck to continue through around
12Z, before burning off after the sun fully rises. Exact timing is
lower confidence, though, as models continue to struggle with this
feature.

Otherwise, VFR conditions prevailing today. Scattered to numerous
afternoon showers and storms. However, coverage is forecast to be
lower than this weekend. VCTS included for the coast, beginning
with the sea breeze around 18Z. Then, spreading inland through
20Z, with TEMPOs included for SFB/MCO/ISM/LEE, where coverage is
forecast to be higher. ANy convection is expected to diminish this
evening into tonight, clearing by around 1Z. Southerly flow this
morning will back southeasterly behind the sea breeze. Winds
generally under 12kts, though a few gusts to around 18-20kts will
be possible along the coast south of the Cape.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  77  91  76 /  60  20  60  10
MCO  92  76  93  76 /  70  20  70  10
MLB  91  79  91  77 /  50  20  60  10
VRB  92  76  92  75 /  50  20  60  10
LEE  92  77  93  77 /  70  20  60  10
SFB  93  77  93  76 /  60  20  60  10
ORL  92  77  93  76 /  70  20  70  10
FPR  91  75  92  74 /  50  20  60  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Leahy