094
FXUS62 KMLB 111102
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
702 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 204 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

- High coverage of showers and storms persists each day through
  this weekend, with the potential for locally heavy rainfall
  leading to minor flooding. A few storms will be capable of wind
  gusts to near 50 mph.

- Seasonably hot temperatures and high humidity will continue to
  produce peak afternoon heat indices in the triple digits, but
  below Heat Advisory criteria.

- There is Moderate Risk for rip currents today at east central
  Florida beaches. Remember to always swim near a lifeguard and
  never swim alone!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Today-Sunday...The Atlantic ridge axis settles over the Florida
peninsula today, where it is forecast to linger through the
weekend. Aloft, mid and upper level ridging also meanders over the
state. Prior to sunrise this morning, showers and a few storms
remain contained to the Atlantic waters along the Gulf Stream.
Expect these cells to continue over the next several hours. A few
could brush the Treasure Coast this morning, before convection
develops along the sea breeze later this morning and into the
early afternoon.

Overall, little change day to day through Sunday, with light
southerly flow increasing to 5-10 mph from the southeast as the
sea breeze develops and moves inland in the afternoon. The sea
breeze will be the main focal point for convection each day,
kicking off near the coast early in the afternoon. A collision is
then expected over the interior, near or west of the I-4 corridor,
into the evening hours. Slow storm motions will lead to erratic
subsequent propagation along outflow boundaries. Deep moisture
(PWATs 2.1-2.4") will support continued high coverage of showers
and storms, with PoPs 50-70% today and 60-80% this weekend. Peak
timing for showers and storms each day looks to be 2-8 PM. A few
storms may be strong, with wind gusts near 50 mph, due to DCAPE
values near 800-900 J/kg. However, the main threat looks to be
locally heavy rainfall of 1-3" from slow moving thunderstorms.
This could lead to minor flooding of low- lying and poor drainage
areas, especially at locations which see multiple rounds.

While shower and storm coverage peaks through 8 PM, scattered
showers and a few storms (up to 30-40%) could linger each evening
near the sea breeze collision through around 10 PM before
diminishing. Otherwise, any nighttime showers and storms are
forecast to remain mostly over the Atlantic waters. However, can`t
rule out a few to scattered cells along the Treasure Coast late
each night into the early morning hours. High temperatures
continue to reach the lower 90s, with high humidity producing heat
indices 102-107 degrees. Overnight lows look to remain in the 70s.

Next Week...Models are in good agreement that the Atlantic ridge
axis will weaken early next week, as a strong ridge develops over
the eastern half of the US. With the ridge north of Florida,
onshore flow (E/ENE) looks to develop, becoming breezy at times,
especially Wednesday. Available moisture looks to remain high,
though periods of drier air may advect into the area later in the
week. However, models suggest an upper level low could transit
aloft over the area during this time. Thus, scattered to numerous
(50-70%) showers and storms are forecast to linger through next
week, with increasing coverage of onshore-moving convection, as
opposed to the typical sea breeze regime. Seasonable highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s continue next week, though stronger onshore
flow will keep overnight lows in the upper 70s along the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 204 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions persist outside of
convection through this weekend, as the Atlantic ridge axis
strengthens over the local waters. S winds 10 kts or less become
SE near the coast as the sea breeze develops in the afternoons.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms will remain a threat,
even overnight. A few storms will be capable of wind gusts to
near 40 kts. Seas 1-3 ft.

Strengthening high pressure over the eastern US next week will
develop increasingly onshore (E/ENE) flow. Boating conditions
look to deteriorate by mid week, as winds increase to 10-15 kts.
Otherwise, showers and storms will remain a threat, with seas 2-3
ft through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 702 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Occasional showers may brush the Treasure Coast this morning.
Otherwise, conditions are dry to start the 12Z TAF. The east
coast sea breeze will first develop along the southern Brevard and
Treasure Coast into late morning, turning winds east-southeast
7-10 kts. Elsewhere, light southerly flow should shift southeast
5-8 kts as the sea breeze further develops northward along the
coast and pushes inland this afternoon. VCTS is mentioned at all
east central Florida terminals this afternoon and evening for
scattered to locally numerous storms. The highest coverage is
forecast along a sea breeze collision near LEE/ISM late in the
day, and TSRA TEMPOs are included at these terminals. Otherwise,
TSRA PROB30s are included at MCO/SFB/DAB/TIX. Most convection
diminishes by 01Z, although more isolated activity may linger
through late this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  75  91  75 /  50  30  60   0
MCO  92  76  92  75 /  50  40  70  10
MLB  90  77  90  76 /  50  20  70  10
VRB  89  75  89  74 /  50  20  70  10
LEE  91  76  92  75 /  60  30  70  20
SFB  92  75  92  76 /  60  40  70  10
ORL  91  76  92  76 /  60  40  70  10
FPR  89  75  89  74 /  50  20  70  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wishard
AVIATION...Law