426
FXUS62 KMLB 140002
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
802 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

- Hotter each day with heat indices approaching 102 to 107+
  degrees, especially tomorrow through Saturday

- Near normal rain and lightning storm chances, mainly along the
  sea breeze, with higher coverage focused across the interior in
  the late afternoon and early evening

- A moderate risk of rip currents will continue at area beaches
  through at least late week

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Now-Tonight...It is another warm and humid afternoon out there as
temperatures climb into the low 90s. Combined with dew points in the
mid to upper 70s, heat index values are pushing into the low/mid
100s for most. Daytona Beach did reach 108 degrees just before 2
PM. Visible satellite shows the low-level cumulus field
drifting northeastward as the east coast breeze begins to take
shape. So far, it remains near and just east of I-95 and will likely
take all afternoon to make inland progress. Some showers have
already formed across eastern St. Lucie and Martin counties, along
with new initiation near Lake George and Deland in Volusia
County.

Recent CAM and hi-res ensemble guidance indicate a slightly more
favorable environment for storms this afternoon. Forecast
soundings show DCAPE of 1200+ J/kg across the interior (note the 15z
XMR sounding had over 1100 J/kg), along with slightly higher mid-
level lapse rates around 6C/km. While it is a bit challenging to pin
down exact locations, higher rain coverage is anticipated from
Osceola County northward, especially along I-4 toward Daytona Beach
through early evening. Locally higher rainfall amounts of 2-3+
inches are possible, along with gusty winds to 50 mph and frequent
lightning. Some pushback toward the Atlantic coast is possible,
especially if storms become more outflow-dominant. Most of the wet
weather is forecast to end shortly before midnight, leaving behind
temperatures settling into the 70s overnight.

Thursday...Ridging centered over the state of Florida Thursday will
help keep light southwest winds in play until the east coast breeze
forms early to mid afternoon. Forecast highs are about a degree
warmer in most spots tomorrow compared to today, meaning a few
locations could approach Heat Advisory criteria (heat index of
108F+). Model trends over the next 12 hours will help determine
whether or not an advisory will be needed during the day Thursday.
For now, though, forecast conditions fall just short in both space
and time. Similar convective parameters are on the table Thursday
afternoon (high CAPE, low shear, warm H5 temps, modest 2-6km lapse
rates), meaning an occasionally gusty storm or one that produces a
quick 1-3" of rain remains possible. Steering flow remains light
with a pivot point around the Orlando metro, so watch for any storms
along I-4, SR-528, and the Florida Turnpike to be heavy rain
producers. Localized flooding could develop in urban and low-lying
areas.

Once again, a majority of afternoon/evening convection winds down
before before midnight. Temperatures into early Friday morning
retreat into the mid and upper 70s, so it will still feel quite
muggy. Keep in mind that a stretch of hot days and warm, muggy
nights builds the overall HeatRisk. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk is
forecast Thursday, especially from Osceola/Brevard northward,
including Greater Orlando. Stay cool and out of the heat during the
late morning to late afternoon, if possible, while keeping hydrated
through the day. Never leave children or pets unattended in vehicles
and consider checking in on those who may be more vulnerable to heat-
related illness.

Friday-Tuesday (modified previous)...Mid-level high pressure in the
eastern Gulf will slowly shift west and northward through the
period. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic
will slowly shift northward as Tropical Cyclone Erin approaches
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico into early next week. Locally,
E/SE winds will dominate each day with wind speeds generally 10
mph or less. Winds will back offshore during the overnight hours
through Saturday. A slight increase in low level moisture is
forecast this weekend into early next week, with PW values around
1.8-2.1" (highest values are forecast around the I-4 corridor).
This will support convection each afternoon and evening. There is
a low to medium (20-50 percent) chance of rain and storm on
Friday, and a medium (40-60 percent) chance for rain and storms
Saturday through Tuesday, with the greatest coverage occurring
across the interior each day.

Warm and humid conditions will continue into early next week.
Afternoon highs will reach the low to mid 90s each day. These
temperatures, coupled with higher humidity, will produce peak heat
indices of at least 102-107 degrees each afternoon. The potential
exists for higher values (up to 110 degrees), especially on
Friday and Saturday, across the northern portions of the CWA. A Heat
Advisory may be needed to end the week, so will continue to closely
monitor this trend. Overnight conditions will remain warm and muggy
with lows generally in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Favorable boating conditions are forecast through the remainder of
the week and into the weekend. Light SSW flow each night veers SSE
in the afternoon behind the developing east coast breeze. Onshore NE
flow returns later in the weekend. Seas remain 2-3 ft, except where
locally higher in the vicinity of storms. Near to slightly below
normal rain chances are forecast through Saturday with increasing
coverage over the waters Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 802 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Boundary interactions near to just southeast of the I-4 corridor
should lead to a few more showers and storms through this evening.
Still can`t rule out a stronger storm or two producing frequent
lightning strikes, strong wind gusts to 45-55mph, small hail and
locally heavy rainfall. Have VCTS across inland terminals through
02Z with a tempo TSRA group to start through 01Z. Will monitor to
see if any of these need to be extended, but this activity will
diminish through late evening.

Similar setup tomorrow, with isolated to scattered showers and
storms developing along the inland moving east coast sea breeze,
with greatest storm potential near to NW of the I-4 corridor late
afternoon and toward sunset. Have VCTS at KDAB at 18Z and at inland
sites around 20-21Z. Not enough confidence in tempo TSRA groups
at this time for tomorrow. Winds will be light and variable
overnight tonight into Thursday, with winds picking up out of the
E/SE around 8-10 knots along the coast behind the sea breeze in
the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  93  77  94 /  20  40  20  40
MCO  77  95  78  96 /  20  40  10  40
MLB  77  92  78  93 /  10  30  10  20
VRB  75  93  75  93 /  10  30  10  20
LEE  78  94  78  95 /  20  50  10  40
SFB  77  95  78  96 /  20  40  10  40
ORL  78  95  78  96 /  20  40  10  40
FPR  74  93  74  93 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Weitlich