010
FXUS62 KMLB 211742
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1242 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 335 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

- Below normal temperatures through Saturday, gradual warming
  trend by the middle of next week

- Hazardous beach and boating conditions continue, improving
  through the weekend

- Low rain chances along the coast into the weekend as winds turn
  onshore, higher potential for rain arrives on Monday

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1011 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

Sfc analysis shows an inverted trough just offshore the FL east
coast producing a breezy/gusty North wind flow along the coast.
Skies are clear except for some marine stratocu pushing onshore
the Volusia coast and some of this should spread onto the Brevard
and Treasure coasts as well this afternoon. There is a small
chance for a few light showers/sprinkles to fall out of the
stratocu later this aftn and evening mainly south of the Cape. No
significant changes to temps with highs holding in the upper 50s
in Volusia county. Daytona will be close to tying its record cool
high (57F from 2020).

A Small Craft Advisory has been expanded to include nearshore
Brevard and extended to 3 pm for nearshore Volusia and Brevard
based on tightened north pressure gradient there due to sfc
trough axis offshore.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

Today-Tonight...Following the cold start, winds are expected to
veer more northeasterly through the day. Gusts at times could
reach 20-25 mph, with locally higher speeds along the immediate
coast (especially in coastal Volusia County). Temperatures will
warm up into the 60s for many, but areas across Lake and Volusia
counties are going to struggle to hit the 60 degree mark. Infrared
satellite early this morning already shows a well-established
850mb marine cloud layer just offshore. These clouds will drift
closer to the coast and move ashore at times this afternoon and
evening. Models indicate a gradual increase in available moisture
into tonight, so a very low chance of isolated showers was
included for the immediate coast. For many, however, today will
remain dry. Temperatures retreat quickly after sunset into the 40s
and 50s as winds lighten and slowly turn more onshore.

This Weekend...Another cold start is forecast Saturday with the
coldest temperatures north of I-4 in the low to mid 40s. With
wind speeds decreasing, wind chills will be less of a factor.
High pressure remains in place as low level winds veer east-
southeasterly. Cloud cover will be on the increase through the
day, so temperatures are only forecast to reach the upper 60s to
low 70s over central Florida. Models continue to hint at a weak
surface trough developing over the eastern half of the peninsula,
shifting seaward by Saturday night. This feature, along with
increasing moisture, could support the development of light rain
showers Saturday afternoon into early Sunday. CAMs have been the
most aggressive in producing light QPF with the highest amounts
around Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast (0.1-0.2"). Compare
this to the global models and both the GFS/ECMWF struggle to
produce much in the way of precipitation during this timeframe.
Thus, this forecast keeps a focus on coastal rain showers, but
future updates may require introduction of mentionable (low) rain
chances across a broader area if hi-res model trends persist.
Temperatures Saturday night into Sunday will fall into the upper
40s to mid/upper 50s for most, perhaps staying closer to 60
degrees along the barrier islands south of the Cape.

Surface high pressure begins to break down and migrate eastward on
Sunday. Global models are in notable disagreement with regard to
overall moisture and potential cloud cover on Sunday. Some
guidance suggests lingering low-level clouds with high clouds
streaming west to east across the peninsula in the afternoon,
while other data indicates significantly drier air and lower cloud
coverage. This will have some effect on daytime high temperatures,
but for now, consensus keeps temps on a slight warming trend into
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Most of the day looks to remain dry,
though rain chances tick up from south to north by Sunday evening
into Monday morning.

Monday-Thursday...An area of surface low pressure over the Gulf is
expected to quickly move east on Monday, reaching south Florida or
the Florida Straits by Monday afternoon. 500mb PVA swings across
the state Monday evening with a more organized mid level trough
stretching from the Carolina coast toward the Yucatan. In the
meantime, a surface front takes shape and bisects our area Monday
afternoon and evening. While this front does not look to have a
huge impact on temperatures early to mid week, it will provide
some extra forcing for shower activity Monday afternoon and
evening. How much rain falls and where those higher amounts occur
is still in question, and it will likely depend on the track of
the low pressure system. Right now, the most favored locations for
higher rain totals (1"+) are across south Florida, extending as
far north as Lake Okeechobee and Fort Pierce/Stuart. Enough
instability could also build over these locations to produce an
isolated lightning storm or two. However, most mention of
lightning potential was kept out of the official forecast until
some of the details in question are sorted out.

Drier air and weak ridging builds in behind this system Tuesday
through early Thursday with partly cloudy to mostly clear
conditions forecast. Look for temperatures to peak in the 70s
Tuesday/Wednesday, followed by a few locations across the south
approaching the low 80s on Thursday. Overnight lows will bottom
out in the 50s for most (upper 40s far northern Lake/Volusia). By
Thursday, expansive troughing reaches the eastern CONUS,
accompanied by a strong surface cold front. Models are in rather
good agreement at this time range, dragging a mostly dry cold
front through the area late Thursday into Friday morning. This
forecast includes a low (15-25%) chance for showers along the
leading edge of the front, before passing south and east of the
area. Above normal temperatures seen during the middle of the
week will likely take a hit to round out the last day of February,
with temperatures next Friday falling slightly below normal.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

Poor to hazardous boating conditions remain over the local
Atlantic today with gradual improvement forecast by Saturday. A
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all adjacent waters,
except the nearshore Brevard waters, where small craft should
exercise caution. By this afternoon and tonight, hazardous
conditions will be focused over the Gulf Stream, where seas remain
5 to 8 feet before slowly falling overnight.

Favorable boating resumes across all marine legs Saturday
afternoon, generally continuing into next week. A chance for rain
showers exists from today through the weekend, especially
offshore, with higher rain chances and a low chance of lightning
on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1241 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

VFR conditions prevailing, with SCT/BKN marine stratocu drifting
onshore through the period. NNE winds veer onshore Saturday
morning. Breezy, with gusts 20-25kts this afternoon diminishing
around sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  49  68  51  68 /   0  20   0   0
MCO  50  70  54  73 /   0  10   0   0
MLB  55  70  55  73 /  20  20  10   0
VRB  56  73  55  75 /  20  20  10  10
LEE  45  70  50  72 /   0  10   0   0
SFB  48  70  52  73 /   0  10   0   0
ORL  50  70  54  73 /   0  10   0   0
FPR  56  73  54  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ550-
     552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ555-570.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ572-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelly
AVIATION...Leahy