733
FXUS62 KMLB 171837
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
237 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

- An active weather pattern is forecast through the remainder of
  this week and into the next, with scattered to numerous showers
  and lightning storms anticipated through at least Monday.

- Storm hazards will include lightning strikes, gusty to locally
  damaging wind gusts, and heavy downpours. Minor, localized
  flooding will also be possible in some locations.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast through
  next week, with peak heat indices exceeding 100F areawide.
  Practice heat safety if spending extended periods of time
  outdoors!

- At the beaches, a Moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents
  continues. Always swim near a lifeguard and never enter the
  surf alone!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Current-Tonight...Temperatures will soar into the L-M90s this
afternoon ahead of sea breezes/afternoon storms with peak heat
indices of 100-107F. Deep moisture, boundary collisions and weak
impulses aloft will aid in SCT-NMRS diurnal convection; highest
across the interior. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a
Marginal Risk for Severe Storms near/north of I-4 this afternoon
and evening. Primary impacts from stronger storms include frequent
lightning strikes, localized wind gusts up to 45-60 mph, and
small to coin-size hail. Additionally, weak steering flow
combined with PWATs exceeding 2" areawide will increase the
potential for quick rainfall accumulations of 1-3", with some
spots reaching 4" and greater within reach. Minor, localized
flooding will be possible with storms. Activity is forecast to
gradually diminish into the mid-late evening with cloud-cover
gradually thinning. Mostly dry conditions anticipated overnight.
Warm and humid with lows in the 70s areawide.

Sat-Mon...Unsettled pattern during this period. A weak area of
surface low pressure is forecast to develop over the NE Gulf and
now is forecast to linger a bit longer & westward across the NE
Gulf. Gradual development of this feature is possible while it
slowly moves across the NE Gulf, N/NE FL over the weekend into
Mon. In the mid-levels low pressure off of the WCFL coast is
forecast to move slowly toward the FL Big Bend into Sun and north
FL Sun night/Mon. NHC has bumped up slightly to a 30% chance of
tropical development across the NE Gulf and N FL with this
activity.

The development of the low will lead to a tightening pressure
gradient across ECFL, with southerly winds increasing to 10 to 15
mph areawide with some higher aftn gusts. Fairly deep moisture
continues across the area with 30-50% PoP chances on Sat, 50-70%
for Sun/Mon, primarily diurnally. WPC also continues to highlight
portions of ECFL in a Marginal Risk (1/4) of excessive rainfall on
Mon due to saturated soils and the ongoing active pattern. Temps
are anticipated to remain near to slightly above normal through
the period, with highs in the L90s (ISOLD M90s) and peak heat
indices 100-107F. Persistent lows in the 70s.

Tue-Thu...Previous Modified...The mid-level low over the southeast
U.S. gradually diminishes into the middle of next week, causing the
low at the surface to become diffuse. The surface ridge axis will
lift north from south FL across central FL by late in the period,
keeping winds generally out of the south outside of sea breeze
formation "backing" winds SERLY in the afternoons. As far as
shower and storm chances go, there appears to be drier air
infiltrating the central/southern FL peninsula (highest values
north FL) so week keep ISOLD-SCT (20-50%) chances in the forecast.
Temps are anticipated to trend warmer mid to late week, with
greater coverage of M90s for highs Wed/Thu. Lows remain in the
70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Thru Tonight...Generally favorable boating conditions into tonight
outside of afternoon/evening showers/lightning storms near the
coast. Offshore winds transition southerly, southeast along the
coast, and back to southwest again tonight. Speeds generally AOB 15
kts - highest well offshore. Seas 1-3 ft, locally higher invof
convection.

Sat-Tue...Unsettled weather pattern developing into this weekend as
a weak area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the
northeast Gulf. Gradual development of this feature is possible
while it slowly moves across the NE Gulf, N/NE FL into early next
week. This will lead to a tightening of the pressure gradient
increasing southerly (SW/S/SE) winds to 15-20 kts at times during
much of this period. Seas generally forecast to remain 2-4 ft. ISOLD-
SCT showers and storms are forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. The
east coast sea breeze has formed and will push slowly inland
producing an E to SE wind shift at all coastal terminals by 19Z.
Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA over the western peninsula will
push an outflow boundary to the east coast where a collision with
the east coast breeze will occur. So have upgraded the PROB30 at
TIX/MLB/VRB to TEMPOs. Have brought forward the TEMPOs at
MCO/LEE/ISM based on radar trends and there is potential for wind
gusts 35 knots or greater. Lingering activity will dissipate or
move out of the area by 00/01Z across the interior and around
02/04Z for the coast. Winds will then become light and variable
once again in the evening and overnight hours. Winds will become
southerly Saturday by mid morning and increase to 5-10KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  92  75  91 /  20  30  10  50
MCO  75  93  76  92 /  30  40  20  60
MLB  76  91  77  91 /  10  30  10  40
VRB  75  92  75  92 /  20  50  10  50
LEE  76  92  76  90 /  40  50  20  70
SFB  75  93  76  92 /  30  40  10  70
ORL  76  92  77  92 /  30  40  20  60
FPR  74  91  75  91 /  20  50  10  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Kelly