304
FXUS62 KMLB 230547
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1247 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 217 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

- Boating conditions improve into next week, while a high risk of
  rip currents remains at area beaches today

- Increased rain chances forecast for Monday, as an area of low
  pressure traverses south-central Florida, then drier mid to late
  week

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures into next week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 612 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

Forecast remains on target this evening, with no significant
impacts occurring across the district. A stream of high-level
cloud cover will persist for the next few hours before clearing
occurs overnight. Low temps within a few degrees of climatology
for late February standards, and a pleasant Sunday is still in
store.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

Rest of Today-Sunday...High pressure lingering over the local area
today will break down into Sunday, as a shortwave trough digs into
the Gulf. Dry conditions will continue to prevail, with mostly
cloudy skies today yielding to partly cloudy during the day on
Sunday. Clearing skies will allow for temperatures to warm a few
degrees tomorrow afternoon, becoming close to normal in the lower
to mid-70s. Prior to that, near to slightly below normal
temperatures will persist through tonight, with lows in the 50s
for most areas, with the exception of upper 40s well north of I-4.
Onshore flow today will veer northerly into Sunday morning, as a
weak shortwave trough dips through the local area overnight.

Sunday Night-Monday...A weak surface low pressure system is
forecast to develop over the Gulf along the shortwave digging into
the southern US early next week. Models have come into somewhat
better agreement this cycle about the track of this system, taking
it eastward through the northern Gulf Sunday night, then across
the south- central Florida peninsula on Monday. With higher
confidence in the models, have increased peak PoPs across the area
to 60-70% from Orlando southward and 50-60% north of I-4.
Coverage will begin to increase late Sunday night, before peaking
through the day on Monday. Rainfall accumulations have also
increased, with areas south of Orlando forecast to see
accumulations of 1-2". A few locally higher totals around 3"
cannot be ruled out, with PWATs forecast between 1.2-1.6".
However, with nearly all of east central Florida in D0-D1 drought,
with the exception of most of Indian River and St Lucie Counties,
overall accumulations are expected to be beneficial. A few
lightning storms cannot be ruled out along the Treasure Coast
Monday afternoon, but forecast CAPE is low (MU CAPE <500J/kg)
High coverage of clouds and precipitation are forecast to keep
Sunday night low temperatures in the 50s. But, with limited direct
sunlight, forecast highs Monday will once again be below normal,
in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Tuesday-Friday (modified previous)...We shift to a drier pattern
from midweek onward with only lingering showers near Lake O and
the coast on Tuesday and a 10-15 percent (or less) chance of a
sprinkle or shower along a cold front Thursday night into Friday.
Timing differences exist with the FROPA on Friday, with some
models suggesting a late Thursday night arrival, while others are
trending toward Friday morning/midday. Lighter winds on Tuesday-
Wednesday are forecast to increase Thursday afternoon ahead of the
front, veering northwest and becoming breezy in the wake of the
front on Friday. Daytime temperatures will climb closer to normal
Tuesday and slightly above normal on Wednesday/Thursday,
especially across the south. Overnight forecast lows range from
the upper 40s (far north Lake/Volusia) to the mid/upper 50s
everywhere else. Post- frontal temperatures briefly cool down
Friday night, dropping back into the 40s and low 50s.

Previewing next weekend and the first couple days of March,
pleasant conditions with near to slightly above normal
temperatures are possible as high pressure builds over the
southeastern U.S.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 217 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

Boating conditions will continue to improve overnight tonight into
Sunday, as high pressure lingers over the local waters. Dry
conditions prevail, with onshore flow today veering northerly
overnight into Sunday. Winds then continue to be onshore or
northerly through Wednesday, remaining 15kts or less. High
coverage of showers Monday, with diminishing chances into
Wednesday, as a low pressure system track through the area. A few
lightning storms will be possible, mainly over the Gulf Stream.
Seas generally 2-4ft, with up to 5ft lingering in the Gulf Stream
this evening.

A cold front will approach the area Thursday, then pass southward
Thursday night, with southwest winds veering northwest Thursday
night. Poor boating conditions return, as winds and seas increase
into late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1245 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

VFR conditions are forecast to continue thru most of the TAF
period. Light/variable wind thru 14z, becoming NE/E 5-10 kt in the
afternoon, will decrease again to around 5 kt or less after 00z
Mon. While VCSH is possible at DAB/LEE just before 06z, not enough
confidence exists to include this in the current TAF. Rain chances
do increase from N to S after 06z-09z (beyond this TAF cycle).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  56  68  58 /  10  60  70  40
MCO  75  59  66  60 /   0  50  70  50
MLB  73  59  71  60 /   0  30  70  60
VRB  75  59  73  60 /   0  10  70  70
LEE  74  57  68  58 /   0  60  70  30
SFB  75  57  69  59 /   0  60  70  40
ORL  75  59  68  59 /   0  60  70  40
FPR  75  59  73  60 /   0  10  70  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Heil
AVIATION...Schaper