271
FXUS62 KMLB 201120
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
720 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

- A High Risk of rip currents continues at area beaches. Poor
  boating conditions across the Treasure Coast waters this morning.

- Sensitive fire weather conditions and little to no precipitation
  chances are forecast to persist through this week.

- Warming trend continues, with highs in the 90s across the interior
  by mid-week.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Today-Tonight...Rinse and repeat today, as high pressure remains
off of the Carolina coastline. However, the pressure gradient is
forecast to relax slightly compared to yesterday, leading to
lighter winds than Saturday afternoon. That`s not to say winds
won`t be elevated, particularly along the coast behind the sea
breeze. Southeast winds are forecast between 10-15 mph this
afternoon, with gusts to around 20 mph (approaching 25 mph along
the Space and Treasure Coasts). This will lead to continued
sensitive fire weather conditions, as rain remains out of the
forecast, though a few rogue sprinkles cannot be ruled out while
embedded within the stratocu deck.

Temperatures continue to creep up today, reaching the lower 80s
across eastern portions of the coastal counties and mid to upper
80s over the interior. If trying to beat the heat at the beach,
please note there is a High Risk for rip currents at all area
beaches. Entering the water is strongly discouraged. Overnight low
temperatures will remain in the mid-60s, as onshore flow
continues.

Monday-Wednesday...High pressure remains north of the area through
mid-week, though slowly meanders closer to the Florida peninsula
at times. Little change to the overall pattern, though an
increasingly relaxed pressure gradient will lead to lighter east
to southeast winds. Daily sea breezes will still cause afternoon
winds to increase, with gusts to 15-20 mph along the coast. Fire
weather will remain elevated, with no precipitation forecast.
Heat will also become an increasing concern, as high temperatures
reach the mid-80s along the coast and upper 80s to lower 90s west
of I-95 by Wednesday. A few record highs over the interior will be
threatened, particularly on Wednesday. Continued onshore flow will
keep overnight temperatures in the mid-60s.

Thursday-Next Weekend...An upper level trough weakens the ridge by
Thursday, though a ridge axis will continue to remain north of the
area into next weekend. Onshore flow continues, with slightly
higher moisture (PWATs closer to 1") advecting into the
peninsula. Rain chances, though small (~15-20%), initially return
to the Treasure Coast by Saturday, then spread northward across
more of the area on Sunday. While this will likely do little to
improve drought conditions or fire weather concerns, any rainfall
is welcome at this point. But, it remains to be seen whether these
PoPs will be realized. Near normal temperatures in the mid-80s
along the coast continue, with above normal temperatures in the
upper 80s to lower 90s over the interior.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

East to southeast flow continues through the work week, as high
pressure remains north of the local waters. Poor boating
conditions continue across the Treasure Coast waters this morning,
as winds remain up to 15-20 kts. Then, winds diminish slightly
into the afternoon, remaining around 10-15 kts into late week.
Until then, small craft should exercise caution in this area. Seas
3-4 ft. Dry conditions persisting through Thursday before small
(~20%) chances build into the waters south of Sebastian Inlet
Thursday night into the weekend. Rain chances may spread northward
by late next weekend, though they currently remain around 20% or
less.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

A low to mid level cloud deck continues to move onshore and
inland this morning, remaining VFR. Sustained east winds increase
to 10-15 kts through mid morning, continuing through the
afternoon. However, locally higher winds between 15-20 kts are
forecast at coastal terminals from MLB southward. Peak gusts
generally between 18-23 kts, but higher along the Treasure Coast.
East winds diminish after sunset, becoming 5-10 kts through the
overnight period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Very sensitive fire weather conditions persisting into at least
mid-week, as high pressure continues to prevent precipitation
chances. East to southeast flow each day will enhance in the
afternoons as the sea breeze develops along the coast and moves
inland. Winds 10-15 mph and min RH 35-45% over the interior will
lead to near-Red Flag conditions at times. Coastal areas will see
the breeziest conditions, though onshore low will limit min RH
there (45-55%). A warming trend continues through mid-week, with
increasing heat concerns, as highs soar into the mid-80s along
the coast and lower 90s over the interior by Tuesday and Wednesday.
A few record highs will be threatened. Good to very good dispersion
each afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  65  83  65 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  86  65  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  81  67  82  67 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  82  66  82  66 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  88  65  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  86  64  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  86  66  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  82  66  82  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Law