863
FXUS62 KMLB 091814
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
214 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

- Scattered showers and lightning storms this afternoon and
  evening, mainly from Vero Beach northward and as far inland as
  Orlando. Some storms may be strong.

- Fire Sensitive weather conditions are forecast this afternoon as
  Min RH values decrease to 35-40 percent inland from the coast.

- Diurnal shower and storm chances increase each day Sunday
  through through mid-week. Some storms may be strong to severe,
  especially Sunday and Monday.

- Highs remain above normal through Monday with peak heat indices
  forecast to reach the mid 90s to around 100F (locally).
  Temperatures become more seasonable behind the front on Tuesday
  before slowly increasing once again into mid/late week. &&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Current-Tonight...Stubborn (spotty) low stratus and patchy fog
finally burned off thru mid-morning earlier today. Another very warm
afternoon across ECFL with eventual maxes into the L-M90s. Peak heat
indices will top out in the M-U90s to around 100F (locally). These
hot and humid conditions will produce a Moderate to Major HeatRisk.
A delayed sea breeze will be slow to push inland. As such, with
deepening moisture across the area, ISOLD-SCT showers/storms (few
strong) will develop thru late day and evening. Storm steering will
shift activity back towards the coast with greatest precip chances
(20-50%) Vero Beach northward. Primary storm threats remain frequent
lightning strikes, strong gusty winds of 40-55 mph, small hail, and
torrential downpours. Convection will diminish or move off the coast
thru mid-late evening, with mostly dry conditions overnight.

Heightened fire sensitivity due to the continued dry/drought
conditions with min RH values dropping to 35-40% across much of
ECFL, including near the coast early this aftn. Westerly wind speeds
will be around 10 mph, but may increase to 10-15 mph with the sea
breeze and expect higher gusts.

Overnight lows will remain warm in the 70s with conditions muggy.
There could, again, be some patchy fog around early Sun morning, but
confidence does not permit inclusion into grids/zones. There will be
some extensive cloud-cover which factors against it as well.

Sun-Mon...Plentiful moisture remains across the area and will
promote an increasing diurnal shower/storm threat these two days.
The sea breeze collision will be across the eastern FL peninsula and
periodic shortwave impulses embedded in the near zonal flow aloft
will also aid the convective threat; 40-60% Sun and 50-70% Mon.
Highest coverage and perhaps strongest storm intensity will focus
closer towards the coast. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined
ALL of east central FL both days as a Marginal Risk for Severe
Storms. Primary storm threats continue to be frequent lightning
strikes, strong to damaging wind gusts (40-60 mph), hail to coin-
size, and torrential downpours.

Heat impacts continue to build Sun as max temps reach the L-M90s and
peak heat indices continue well into the M-U90s-100F. Clouds and
precip may keep Mon temps a little lower - U80s to L90s (south).
Warm and humid conditions will continue each overnight period, with
lows in the 70s providing little relief. These hot/humid conditions
will continue to produce a Moderate/Major HeatRisk across the area.

Another weak front approaches and moves into the area Mon night.
Shower and storm chances do gradually diminish thru late evening
Mon, but we could see some shower activity persist overnight in
association with the boundary as conditions remain unsettled.

Tue-Fri...A weak front remains forecast to slowly shift south of the
area becoming quasi-stationary across south FL. Moisture is slow to
scour out with a trend for increasing rain chances through mid-week.
There will also be an inland moving sea breeze each afternoon.
Troughing aloft encompasses the southeast U.S. thru Thu with
shortwave impulses aiding convection during this time. Post-frontal
winds veer onshore behind the front continuing into late week. A
weak high pressure influence will exist across the region. Chances
for showers/storms Tue (60-70%) and Wed (20-40%). A drying trend is
forecast Thu-Fri, but we may still encounter a 10-20% PoP threat on
Thu. Temps return closer to seasonal values on Tue (in the 80s)
behind the front, then continue to rise through mid/late week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Current-Tonight...A weak frontal boundary has lifted back north of
the local waters. S/SW winds (AOB 15 kts) will "back" onshore along
the coast with sea breeze formation. A light offshore component will
develop again later this evening and overnight. Ahead of that,
mariners will need to monitor westward for any approach of
afternoon/evening showers/lightning storms. Greatest threat will be
from near Vero Beach northward. Seas generally 2-3 ft and locally
higher invof convection.

Sun-Wed...An increased shower/storm threat exists `Sun-Tue` of next
week as moisture remains ample and boundary collisions across the
eastern peninsula each day/evening allow for storm steering to
direct activity back towards the coast. A weak front pushes into the
local waters Mon night, slowly exiting southward during the day on
Tue, but residual moisture remains. A few storms (at least Sun/Mon)
will be locally strong and potentially severe with primary concerns
of frequent lightning strikes and strong gusty winds. Hail to coin-
size and torrential downpours are also in play.

Generally a southerly component of wind thru Mon, with winds Mon
night becoming light offshore behind the boundary, then quickly
onshore again by Tue afternoon as the front settles across south FL.
Keep in mind that convection can distort the prevailing forecasted
wind field for a time. A brief surge in wind speeds 15-20 kts will
be possible later Tue aftn & evening before diminishing overnight
into Wed morning as a light onshore wind component develops and
continues past mid-week.

Seas initially 2-3 ft build to 3-5 ft Tue, further to 6-7 ft
offshore Tue evening thru Wed morning, slowly subsiding again Wed
night onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

SW winds 10-15 knots will turn onshore (SE) near 15 knots and
gusty behind the sea breeze at SUA/FPR/VRB/MLB through 19Z or so.
Along the breeze, iso/sct TSRA are forecast thru at least 00z
which will push the sea breeze inland to SFB/MCO late in the day
with a wind shift. Have added TEMPOs for MVFR TSRA at
MCO/SFB/TIX/DAB roughly 20Z-24Z. Kept VC term MLB southward but
will amend if necessary to add TEMPOs. Light SW flow will return
to all sites aft 03Z. Light fog/mist possible early Sun where
heavy rain occurs this aftn/eve. Another round of TSRA is forecast
Sun aftn and have inserted VCTS at MCO aft 20Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

A weak front will slowly lift back northward into northern Florida.
Deep moisture will remain across the area and generate isolated to
scattered showers and lightning storms this afternoon and evening;
occasionally numerous in coverage Sunday through Tuesday of next
week, mainly of a diurnal variety and may provide some decent
"wetting" rains for much of east central FL. A few storms could be
strong to marginally severe each day as this activity pushes back
toward the coast and offshore. Storm threats include frequent
lightning strikes, strong gusty winds, hail to coin-size, and
torrential downpours. Greatest rain chances this afternoon and
evening will be from Vero Beach northward and as far inland as the
Orlando Metro area (30-40 percent). The threat does exist for
potential new "fire-starts" from lightning strikes.

Southwest to west winds around 10 mph this afternoon and again
Sunday will "back" southeast along the coast and increase to 10-15
mph due to the east coast sea breeze. Late day sea breeze collisions
will favor the eastern Florida peninsula through Monday.

Fire Sensitive weather conditions are forecast this afternoon across
east central Florida due to min RH values dropping to 35-40 percent,
early near the coast, as well into the interior. Min RH values
recover slightly on Sunday, 40-45 percent. Hot and humid conditions
continue into early next week, with afternoon highs in the low to
mid 90s and peak heat indices of 95-100 degrees. Dispersion values
will be Very Good to Excellent this afternoon, returning to
Generally Good for Sunday, and Fair to Generally Good on Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites for today, Saturday,
May 9th:

                     RECORD
             DATE    HIGH
Daytona      09-May  97  2024
Leesburg     09-May  96  2009
Sanford      09-May  97  2024
Orlando      09-May  98  1915
Melbourne    09-May  94  1978
Vero Beach   09-May  93  2024
Fort Pierce  09-May  95  1967

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  89  73  88 /  20  50  30  70
MCO  74  91  75  89 /  10  50  30  70
MLB  77  90  77  88 /  20  60  40  70
VRB  77  91  77  91 /  20  50  30  70
LEE  73  91  74  89 /  10  30  10  50
SFB  73  92  73  90 /  10  50  30  70
ORL  74  91  75  89 /  10  50  30  70
FPR  77  91  77  91 /  20  50  30  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Kelly