039
FXUS62 KMLB 121430
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
930 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

...New UPDATE, MARINE, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 930 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

- Near record temperatures Today and Thursday. There is a low
  risk of heat-related illness especially for those sensitive to
  heat and those not acclimated to the abnormally warm
  temperatures during the winter season.

- Isolated to scattered rain showers (perhaps isolated lightning
  storms) are forecast late Thursday ahead of a weak "cool" front
  approaching front the north.

- Poor to hazardous marine conditions over the local Atlantic
  waters expected Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

Current-Tonight...Much of the earlier fog has burned off or
dissipated, leaving only some low stratus clouds across the
interior to slowly do the same. This will eventually give way to
MSunny skies with deep southerly flow (surface 10-15 mph, 15-20
mph Space/Treasure coasts) allowing temperatures to soar into the
80s this afternoon, as we are forecasting near record heat. See
Climate section below. There will be frequent higher gusts this
afternoon. If working or recreating outdoors, take frequent breaks
out of the sun and drink plenty of water. Protect yourself from
the sun by wearing sunscreen and a hat, especially during the
hottest part of the day. Mainly dry weather is forecast and we
will see the ECSB develop and slowly push inland, but moisture is
lacking so we have a less than 10pct chance of seeing precip.

Our southerly winds will gradually decrease through this evening
and overnight to around 5 mph, but may stay elevated at the
immediate coast 5-10 mph. 925 MB winds increase to 20-25 kts just
off the surface, so even though we do carry a patchy fog threat in
the grids/zones, low (stratus) clouds may be a bigger threat
overnight into early Thu morning. Overnight mins generally very
mild and in the M-U60s, though barrier islands may realize near 70
degrees for lows.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 412 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

Currently-Tonight... Local radar imagery shows dry conditions
over east central Florida. The Atlantic ridge extends over the
southwest Atlantic and central to south Florida. GOES-16
Nighttime Microphysics and Day Cloud Phase satellite imagery
shows mostly clear skies over east central Florida with areas of
dense fog over the Treasure Coast, Okeechobee, and Osceola
counties. Additionally, local observations indicate visibility
down to as low as 1/4 mile or less over the aforementioned
counties. Current temperatures are in the mid 50s to upper 60s and
dew points in the mid 50s to upper 60s. Winds are generally light
and variable to calm.

Mostly to partly sunny skies are expected today after the fog and
low stratus this morning lift/dissipate into the late morning
hours. Dry weather is forecast today with high pressure in place
over the western Atlantic. Light and variable to calm winds this
morning are expected to increase into the late morning and
afternoon hours from the south-southeast at 10-15mph with gusts to
20-25mph over and to the east of the Orlando metro and from the
south-southwest at 5-10mph to the west. Near record afternoon
highs are forecast today with the low to upper 80s expected. Low
temperatures in the low to upper 60s are forecast with mostly
cloudy skies and generally light and variable winds.

Thursday-Friday... Rain chances increase Thursday (PoPs ~20-50%)
and Friday (PoPS ~ 20-30%) as a cold front moves east-southeast
over the southeastern US before becoming quasi stationary over
east central Florida into Friday. PWATs are forecast to increase
between 1.4-1.8" on Thursday and Friday. Isolated to scattered
showers and isolated lightning storms are forecast to develop
Thursday afternoon and evening as the east coast sea breeze
converges with west-southwest gradient winds over the interior.
Near record highs in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees are forecast
on Thursday. ECMWF and NAEFS ensemble climatological percentiles
indicate temperatures towards the 97.5th+ percentile to the
maximum for this time of year over east central Florida Thursday
afternoon. Highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s are forecast on Friday
with mostly cloudy skies. Low temperatures in the mid 60s to low
70s are forecast Thursday morning. Lows in he the upper 50s to low
60s are forecast north of I-4 with the mid 60s to low 70s Friday
morning.

Saturday-Tuesday... Isolated onshore moving showers (PoPS ~20%)
are forecast on Saturday with east to northeast flow at the
SFC-700mb coupled with PWATs in the 1.3-1.7" range. Rain chances
(PoPs 20-60%) increase on Sunday as a cold front is forecast to
move east-southeast over the Southeastern US and the state of
Florida. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated lightning
storms are forecast with the greatest potential for lightning
(20%) north of Melbourne to Lake Kissimmee. Breezy to windy
southwest winds are forecast on Sunday with 850mb winds at
30-50kts before veering north and weakening into Monday. High
temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s are forecast on Saturday
with the mid 80s to upper 80s on Sunday. Lows in the low 60s to
near 70 degrees are forecast each morning through Sunday. Much
cooler weather is expected behind the cold front into early next
week with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s north of I-4 and the low
50s to low 60s to the south Monday and Tuesday mornings. Highs in
the mid 60s to mid 70s are forecast on Monday with the low to
upper 70s on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 930 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

Today-Tonight...Lighter winds this morning are inviting now to
boating, but models suggest southerly winds will increase this
afternoon to 10-15 kts near shore and 15-20 kts over the Gulf
Stream, where small craft should Exercise Caution. Seas 2-4 ft
near shore and 4-5 ft offshore waters.

Thursday-Sunday...Choppy to poor boating conditions are expected
to become poor to hazardous conditions Friday and into the
weekend. South winds at 10-15kts are forecast to increase to
around 15kts with up to 20kts mainly over the Gulf Stream on
Thursday. Winds are expected to veer east-northeast at 15-20kts
with up to 25kts over the Volusia and Brevard county offshore
waters into Friday afternoon and evening as a cold front becomes
quasi stationary over east central Florida. Winds are then
forecast to veer southeast into Saturday afternoon at around
15-20kts before veering southwest on Sunday at 20-25kts. Isolated
to scattered generally offshore moving showers and lightning
storms are forecast Thursday into Friday. The main hazards with
any stronger storms that develop will be occasional to frequent
lightning, moderate to heavy rainfall, and wind gusts up to
30-40mph. A cold front is forecast to move east-southeast over the
waters on Sunday with scattered showers and isolated offshore
moving lightning storms forecast. Seas of 2-4ft on Thursday are
expected to increase Friday into Saturday with up to 4-7ft
nearshore and to 7-10ft over the offshore waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 645 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

Areas of IFR/LIFR across southern terminals VRB-FPR should lift
quickly after sunrise. A band of more prominent stratus and fog
lifting north toward MCO may produce temporary IFR/LIFR conds
betwn 12Z-14Z before mixing out. Once the fog/stratus lifts, south
to southeast winds will increase to 10-15 KT by 15Z-16Z gusting
18-24KT before decreasing to 8-10 KT around sunset and settling to
5 knots overnight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 930 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

Record highs for Today, February 12th and Thursday,
February 13th:

             RECORD            RECORD     NORMAL
     DATE    HIGH      DATE    HIGH
DAB  12-Feb  84 2021   13-Feb  86 2020    71 51
LEE  12-Feb  86 2020   13-Feb  88 2020    73 52
SFB  12-Feb  87 2020   13-Feb  88 2020    74 52
MCO  12-Feb  88 2020   13-Feb  89 2020    75 52
MLB  12-Feb  88 2019   13-Feb  88 2021    74 54
VRB  12-Feb  87 1994   13-Feb  88 2021    75 54
FPR  12-Feb  87 2019   13-Feb  88 2020    76 54

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  84  65  86  61 /   0   0  40  20
MCO  87  68  90  65 /   0   0  30  20
MLB  83  66  86  66 /   0   0  50  50
VRB  85  68  88  67 /   0   0  30  50
LEE  86  67  89  63 /   0   0  20  10
SFB  87  67  90  63 /   0   0  20  10
ORL  87  68  90  65 /   0   0  30  10
FPR  84  66  87  66 /   0   0  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Sedlock
AVIATION...Kelly