995
FXUS62 KMLB 050557
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
157 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

- Hazy skies will be possible through Thursday due to an incoming
  Saharan Air Layer (SAL).

- Hot and very humid conditions are expected from this weekend into
  early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Any lingering light showers that were left over from this
afternoon`s convection has largely diminished across the area,
with some mid to high level clouds persisting. Weak passing
disturbances aloft ahead of a mid level trough across the FL
panhandle and eastern Gulf may still lead to a few redeveloping
showers, mainly across to NW of the I-4 corridor overnight. Have
therefore kept some low end rain chances (around 20%) across this
area tonight. Otherwise, mostly dry, with skies partly to mostly
cloudy and lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...The cutoff mid-level low over the
northeastern Gulf/Florida Panhandle lifts north while getting
absorbed into the broad trough over the north CONUS, as ridging
aloft builds over Texas, Mexico, and the western Gulf. The surface
disturbance over Florida gradually lifts north with the mid-level
low/trough, but trailing high moisture continues to be dragged
across the area. Looks like the scattered to numerous showers that
just pushed off our coast for the most part will be the last big
rainmaker for this system, though not necessarily the last round
of light to moderate showers and a few storms, as the highest
moisture slowly lifts north. Areawide rain chances 60-70% this
afternoon begin to decrease after 6 PM, with only a 20-30 pct
chance remaining across the north after midnight. The XMR 15Z
sounding shows the long, skinny, saturated profile with warm mid-
level and shallows lapse rates supportive of heavy rainfall.
Fortunately, have seen little if any training rainfall or banding,
with most storms and heavy showers organized into a series of
bowing segments. While this will result in brief periods of heavy
rainfall, lessening the potential for flooding in a short period
of time, these segments are producing gusty winds of 40-50 mph, in
addition to occasional cloud to ground lightning, although the
greatest chances of these storm threats area likely passed now.
Not much change to the forecast rainfall amounts, with most
locations expected to see less than 1", but localized
accumulations of 2-3" over will be possible were repeated rounds
of rainfall occur. Since this will be over the course of several
hours, the flooding threat is limited to poor drainage urban and
low-lying areas.

Daytime temperatures remain well below normal with highs in the
L-M80s from all the cloud cover and high rain chances. Overnight
temperatures remain around normal. We start to see the effect of
the Saharan Air Layer arriving at East Central Florida later this
evening into tonight, notably in a drying and warming of the low-
mid levels. Dust from the SAL could settle towards the surface
late tonight towards morning, producing haze.

Thursday-Friday...We start to return to a more typical afternoon
lightning storm pattern as the surface disturbance departs to the
north, and the ridge axis of high pressure over the Atlantic
builds across central Florida Thursday before shifting south
Friday. The tail of moisture from the disturbance will continue to
be dragged across Florida, and while moisture will remain above
normal in most of the column (PWATs 1.7-2.1" at or above the 75th
percentile), the arrival of the Saharan Air Layer will bring
significantly drier conditions to the mid-lower levels that
convection will need to overcome. Models have struggled with the
effect of the SAL, causing rain chances to shift a fair bit from
the previous forecast, and can`t rule out more adjustments over
the next 24 hours. At this juncture, low rain chances (20-30 pct)
remain across the north to start the day, gradually increasing
south in the afternoon to 20-50 pct, highest to the north in the
afternoon. Moisture decreases a bit more Friday, but the effect of
the SAL is now forecast to decrease, resulting in an overall more
favorable environment for afternoon lightning storms, with
chances picking back up to 40-60 pct. A warming trend also begins
as we return to normal amounts of sunshine, with near normal
temperatures.

Saturday-Tuesday...(Modified Previous Discussion) The surface
ridge axis becomes further established south of central Florida
through the weekend and into early next week. Southwest flow
should generally favor a west coast sea breeze regime, keeping the
east coast breeze closer to the coast each afternoon. Sufficient
moisture remains in place for at least scattered showers and
storms peaking late each afternoon. Steepening low level lapse
rates favor at least an isolated lightning storm threat each day.
The warming trend is forecast to continue, with highs reaching the
low to mid 90s across the interior.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

A weak disturbance over Florida lifts north, largely departing
the area tonight, though the tail of increased moisture will
continue to be dragged across the Florida peninsula for an
additional day or two. The ridge axis from high pressure over the
Atlantic builds back across central Florida Thursday, then
gradually drops south Friday through the weekend. Southerly flow
the rest of the today and Thursday veers as the ridge axis shifts
south, becoming S-SW Friday, and SW-SSW Saturday and Sunday. Won`t
see a sea breeze develop today due to cloud cover, then the
circulation returns Thursday onward, though it will be slow to
develop and possibly remain near the coastal corridor from the
background offshore flow. The sea breeze will enhance southerly
flow a bit on Thursday, then back winds across the waters and near
the coast to southerly Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Small craft
should continue to exercise caution well offshore Volusia in the
Gulf Stream for winds 15-20 kts this evening, otherwise, winds
5-15 kts across the waters through the forecast period. Seas 3-4
ft this afternoon settle to 1-3 ft by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 156 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

VFR conditions are forecast outside of showers/storms. Scattered
to numerous showers (30-70%) and scattered lightning storms (TEMPO
groups for TSRA between 18Z-23Z N of KVRB) are forecast to
develop into the afternoon and evening as sea breezes and outflow
from previous storms converge over ECFL. There is a low potential
(10-30%) for MVFR CIGs at times this morning. Light and variable
winds are forecast to increase into the afternoon with the east
coast sea breeze at 8-12kts with gusts to 15-18kts at the TAF
sites E of the Orlando metro. Winds from the SW at 5-8kts are
forecast to the W of the Orlando metro.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  72  90  72 /  70  40  50  20
MCO  90  74  93  75 /  60  30  50  20
MLB  87  74  90  75 /  50  30  50  30
VRB  88  73  90  73 /  40  20  40  20
LEE  88  74  91  74 /  70  30  50  10
SFB  90  73  93  74 /  70  30  50  10
ORL  90  75  93  75 /  70  30  50  20
FPR  88  73  90  72 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...Fehling