340
FXUS62 KMLB 230512
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
112 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

- Drier air will lead to lower than normal shower and storm
  chances through Thursday. Increasing moisture into late week
  and through the weekend will then allow rain chances to return
  to near to above normal values.

- Near to above-normal afternoon temperatures will persist through
  the period with peak heat indices exceeding 100F each day.
  Practicing heat safety will be key to avoid heat-related
  illness!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Currently-Tonight...East coast sea breeze will continue to shift
inland, with isolated to scattered showers and storms still possible
along this boundary. However, greatest potential for rain (up to 30-
40%) will exist across areas south of Orlando through the afternoon
and with the sea breeze collision across Lake County into this
evening (from 8-10 PM). Dry air aloft may allow for an isolated
stronger storm or two, mainly from the sea breeze collision,
producing frequent lightning, strong wind gusts up to 40-50 mph and
locally heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches. Convection will then
diminish, with mostly dry conditions then forecast overnight.
However, low level onshore flow may again lead to a few onshore
moving showers along the Treasure Coast late in the night through
early morning Thursday (chance of rain 20%). Warm and muggy
conditions will exist overnight, with lows in the mid to upper 70s
for many locations.

Thursday-Friday...TS Bertha is forecast to continue a westward
movement along the northern Gulf coast through Thursday, before
weakening into a Tropical Depression as it continues farther inland
into TX on Friday. As this system continues west, a broad ridge
aloft will persist across Florida through late week. At the surface
the Atlantic ridge axis will remain extended near to north of the
area, leading to a predominant onshore flow. Drier airmass (PW
values 1.5-1.6 inches) and easterly flow on Thursday will keep
rain chances limited (10-20%) and focused mostly inland and toward
west central Florida. Moisture then increases into Friday as a
weak inverted sfc trough approaches and moves westward across the
region, increasing PW values to 2+ inches. This will lead to a
rise in shower and storms chances, with scattered to locally
numerous showers and storms developing into the afternoon and
shifting westward through the early evening. Rain chances increase
to 30-60% for much of the region, with greatest coverage focused
near to south of Orlando. North of Sanford, showers and storms may
remain more isolated (PoPs 10-20%). Lingering pockets of drier
air may still allow for a few stronger storms into Friday, with
gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy downpours
continuing to be the main threats.

It will remain hot and humid into late week, with highs in the low
to mid 90s. There will be little relief on Thursday as rain chances
remain limited, and highs for inland areas are forecast within 1-2
degrees of record highs. Could also see some upper 90s in spots near
to northwest of I-4 tomorrow afternoon. Peak heat index values look
to remain below Heat Advisory thresholds, ranging from 100-107F, as
drier air will mix down to lower dewpoints tomorrow, and even with
the added humidity Friday, the increase in showers and storms should
bring some heat relief into the afternoon. Still, a moderate to
major HeatRisk will still lead to dangerous heat impacts into late
week.

Saturday-Tuesday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Upper level high
pressure over the Plains and the Deep South will remain in place as
a trough over the Midwest shifts eastward towards the Atlantic coast
and digs southward towards the Florida into the weekend and early
next week. At the surface, the Atlantic high pressure ridge axis
will shift southward through the weekend as a low pressure system
pushes off the coast of the Carolinas. An associated frontal
boundary will dig through the Deep South into late week and into
northern Florida before stalling over the weekend. The front will
then drift slowly southward into early next week as it weakens.
Moisture will continue to increase across the area this weekend,
with shower and lightning storm activity primarily being driven by
sea breeze interactions/collisions. Offshore (westerly) flow will
also return this weekend and continue into early next week, which
will favor higher coverage of storms across the eastern side of the
peninsula near the coast, with shower and storm chances remaining
near to above normal. Any lingering showers and storms will diminish
each evening through the overnight hours. However, isolated to
scattered showers will remain possible across the Atlantic waters
each night.

A slight warming trend is forecast through the weekend, with above
normal temperatures forecast through Sunday. Current guidance
indicates that increasing cloud coverage and rain chances will help
keep temperatures closer to normal Monday and Tuesday. Peak heat
indices will generally be 100-107F, with some locations potentially
nearing Heat Advisory criteria, especially over the weekend.
Confidence in this remains low however, so will continue to monitor.
Lows will generally be in the 70s each night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Atlantic ridge axis will remain near to north of the area through
late week, and then slide south of the area into the weekend and
early next week. Overall favorable boating conditions will continue
over the next several days, with winds speeds remaining mostly below
15 knots and seas 1-3 feet (potentially up to 4 feet offshore on
Monday). Winds will shift to a more easterly direction through late
week, southerly on Saturday, and west to southwest Sunday into
Monday. However the east coast sea breeze is forecast to form each
day, turning the winds E/SE each afternoon.

Isolated showers and storms forecast through Thursday, with
moisture increasing Friday into the weekend, resulting in a
rise in shower and storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 111 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Mainly VFR conditions continue. Either light SE/SSE winds or
variable overnight into early Thu morning. Winds become generally
ERLY with speeds increasing 7-13 kts and some higher aftn gusts.
Still drier overall conds, but will monitor for the Treasure Coast
terminals during the morning and well inland in the afternoon for
any convective potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  76  90  76 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  96  76  95  77 /  10   0  40   0
MLB  90  78  89  77 /   0  10  20   0
VRB  91  78  90  76 /  10  40  40  10
LEE  95  77  94  78 /  10   0  30   0
SFB  95  76  94  77 /  10   0  30   0
ORL  95  77  94  77 /  10   0  40   0
FPR  90  77  90  76 /  20  40  40  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Sedlock