495
FXUS62 KMLB 021816
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
216 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

- Through tonight, a high risk of rip currents remains north of
  Cape Canaveral with a moderate risk southward

- Elevated rain chances continue, focused south of Orlando through
  late week, with higher coverage returning late weekend into
  early next week

- Temperatures warm each day into the weekend, heat indices
  approach 100 to 105 degrees Saturday and Sunday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Now-Tonight...Among a mix of sun and clouds, scattered showers are
growing in coverage this afternoon, especially east of Orlando. A
surface low is situated due east of the area over the Atlantic,
associated with a stalled front that is draped across south Florida.
Winds are wrapping around the low pressure system from the north,
reaching 10-15 mph. Some gusts around 20-25 mph are possible through
the afternoon, especially along the Volusia/north Brevard coast, as
daytime mixing and fluctuations in the pressure gradient occur.
Short-range model guidance favors a continuation of scattered
showers through late afternoon. As improved convergence develops
over south-central Florida, a broken line of showers and isolated
storms may develop from Tampa Bay to near Lake Okeechobee and the
far southern portion of the Treasure Coast. This is where the
highest rain chances (60%) are found through the rest of today.
Total rain amounts range from a few hundredths of an inch to as much
as one inch across the far south.

Otherwise, temperatures are on track to reach the mid/upper 80s in
most places with a few locations around Lake Okeechobee and the
Treasure Coast forecast to reach 90 degrees. As winds slacken
overnight, temperatures will settle into the mid 70s.

Wednesday-Thursday (modified previous)...Weak high pressure will
build along the Eastern Seaboard thru midweek as persistent onshore
flow continues and the pgrad gradually relaxes. Higher rain chances
will be situated primarily south of Orlando, where moisture is
deepest (PW 2"+). This forecast lowers precip chances just a hair,
closer to 30-55pct near/north of Orlando and 60-70pct southward.
These values may still be a bit overcooked, depending on how much
dry air infiltrates northern sections of the area. Instability will
remain limited with warmer mid-level (H500) temperatures (-5C to -
6C). There will be occasional weak subtle shortwave impulses
embedded within the WRLY flow that will aid convection. A meager
warming trend is forecast with highs in the U80s to L90s
(approaching the M90s far interior). Overnight lows will continue to
reach the 70s.

Friday-Monday (modified previous)...Increasing mid-level heights in
the extended as weak ridging takes hold and large scale troughing
retreats northward. Still, some drier air lingers across north-
central Florida, but a gradual return of deeper moisture does occur
late in the weekend into early next week. The former stalled frontal
boundary across south FL ventures back northward. The moisture
gradient does remain fairly tight north to south, and we continue to
advertise scattered convective chances northward with numerous
showers and storms mentioned, generally south of Orlando. Highs
reach the U80s to around 90 degrees, though drier air across the
north may help realize temps in the low/mid 90s near/NW of I-4. Peak
heat indices may reach 100 to 105 degrees across the area this
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Wave heights have declined since early this morning with ~5 ft at
41070 and 4 ft at 41009. NNE winds are around 15 kt with gusts
around 20 kt over the Volusia waters (see obs at 41069) but are
forecast to slacken after midnight. Small craft should exercise
caution there through late evening. As the pressure gradient weakens
a bit Wednesday, winds return to 10-15 kt with gusts generally under
20 kt from the Cape northward. Surface flow turns onshore Thursday,
weakening further (10-12 kt or less), remaining ENE through
Saturday. Waves up to 6 ft well offshore of the Volusia coast are
forecast to decline into Wednesday morning. 3-4 ft waves with 5 ft
waves offshore Wednesday fall further to 2-4 ft Thursday and 2-3 ft
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Widely
scattered onshore moving showers ongoing this afternoon. Have
maintained VCSH/VCTS this afternoon. Hi-res guidance continues to
not be overly consistent on convective trends for today. For now
have kept TEMPO 3hr MVFR TSRA impact groups for all TAF sites
between 18-23Z. N/NE winds this afternoon at 10-15 knots, with
higher gusts to 20-23 knots at the coast, mainly near to north of
KMLB.

Winds then decrease overnight, becoming N/NW at 5 knots or
less. Rain chances will diminish into the evening, but isolated to
scattered coastal showers will continue to be possible into
tonight. Have kept VCSH along the coast through 06Z as confidence
in showers decreases afterwards. Onshore moving showers will be
possible starting in the morning. Have included VCSH starting at
13Z along the coast and 16Z across the interior.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  87  75  88 /  20  40  10  40
MCO  74  90  74  91 /  20  40  10  60
MLB  76  89  77  89 /  30  50  30  60
VRB  74  89  76  90 /  30  60  30  70
LEE  73  89  73  90 /  20  30  10  40
SFB  74  89  74  90 /  20  40  10  50
ORL  74  89  74  91 /  20  40  10  60
FPR  74  89  74  90 /  30  60  30  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Watson