420
FXUS62 KMLB 242345
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
745 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

- A HIGH Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at all
  Atlantic beaches of Central Florida.

- Unsettled weather continues early this week, with higher-than-
  normal chances for showers and storms. Occasional to frequent
  lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rain leading to minor
  flooding are the primary hazards.

- While a return to more typical afternoon and evening storms is
  expected by mid to late this week, the forecast supports above-
  normal rainfall as we wrap up August.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Adjustments made with the evening forecast update based on current
radar and CAM guidance trends. Brought PoPs down across east
central Florida to 20% or less through the next couple of hours,
with conditions favored to trend in a drier direction overnight.
Another early start to showers will be possible on Monday, so made
some slight adjustments to the onset of shower and storm mention
within the forecast. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Current-Tonight... A fairly early start to convection once again
today, although coverage was not as high as previous days. Activity
developed across the west coast of Florida earlier this morning
before pushing eastward across much of east central Florida through
the morning hours. Scattered showers and storms then shifted
eastward in the offshore flow across central Florida into this
afternoon before pushing offshore as an unsettled weather pattern
continues.

The moist airmass across the Florida peninsula persists today as a
stalled frontal boundary remains to the north. Much like yesterday,
scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast to continue to
shift eastward across ECFL through the mid afternoon, with
convection largely shifting offshore through late afternoon and
early evening. Some lingering light debris cloud rainfall as well as
some additional shower and storm development may persist past
sunset. Some stronger storms may still be possible today, producing
frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 40-50 mph and heavy
downpours of 1 to 3 inches, which may lead to minor flooding of
roadways and poor drainage areas especially with repeated rounds of
heavy rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed
portions of ECFL in A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall today,
mainly north of Treasure Coast and Okeechobee Counties.

Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal for this time of
year due to the higher rain chances and cloud cover. Afternoon highs
will range from mid to upper be in the mid to upper 80s to low 90s.
Humid conditions will lead to peak heat indices of 100-105 degrees.
Warm and muggy conditions will continue overnight with lows in the
low to mid 70s.

Monday-Saturday... The stalled front north of the area is forecast
to gradually settle southward across the area through mid to late
week. An upper level trough will build back southward across the
area mid to late week and going through the weekend. Rain chances
look to generally remain near to above normal for much of the area
through the work week and into the weekend as a moist airmass
continues across the area. Rain chances generally range around 60-70
percent each day, but some drier air may be able to build in briefly
north of the stalled front, lowering PoPs to around 50 percent north
of Orlando Wednesday. Offshore flow will gradually weaken through
early next week and eventually become onshore by mid to late week,
which will result in the east coast sea breeze forming once again
and pushing inland. This onshore flow and development of the ECSB
will begin to focus greatest coverage of showers and storms inland
during the afternoon/early evening hours.

Highs will be near to slightly above normal, mostly in the low 90s
through Friday, and upper 80s to low 90s on Saturday. These
temperatures coupled with humidity will produce peak heat indices of
100-105 degrees each day. Warm and muggy will conditions will
continue, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s each night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Today-Thursday... (Modified Previous Discussion) A lingering 12-14
second swell from former Hurricane Erin will be slow to abate,
prolonging hazardous currents at our inlets during outgoing tides
for at least 2-3 more days. In the open Atlantic today and Monday,
seas from 3-5 FT persist. Occasional 6 FT seas through tonight well
beyond 20 NM. Sea will continue to diminish into mid week, with seas
2-4ft by Tuesday, and 2-3ft by Wednesday and Thursday .

Expect southwest winds up to around 15 KT with gusts to 20 KT
through Monday. Winds decrease quickly on Tuesday, allowing a sea
breeze to potentially form in the afternoon. Onshore breezes return
for the remainder of the work week, up to 12 KT.

A wet pattern will persist through the period, with scattered to
numerous showers and storms pushing eastward and offshore each
afternoon and evening through Tuesday. Any storms will be capable of
producing frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds near 30 KT with
stronger storms capable or producing wind gusts near or in excess of
34 knots. Scattered to numerous onshore moving showers and storms
will are then forecast Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 745 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Mostly dry at the terminals overnight with light SW winds
persisting. Early VCSH at MCO and the other interior terminals
beyond 12Z, transitioning to VCTS after 16Z. Coastal terminals see
VCTS around 16Z as well. Confidence in timing of showers and
storms remains low due to variability of short-range mode
guidance, so would not be surprised to see some further
adjustments with subsequent forecast packages. Also did not have
high enough confidence to include TEMPOs. Activity looks to
diminish beyond 00Z tomorrow. WSW winds prevail tomorrow at 5 to
10 knots, becoming lighter tomorrow evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  90  74  91 /  20  50  20  60
MCO  75  90  74  92 /  20  60  20  70
MLB  75  89  75  90 /  20  60  30  70
VRB  73  90  73  91 /  20  60  40  70
LEE  75  89  75  91 /  20  60  20  70
SFB  75  90  75  92 /  20  60  20  70
ORL  75  90  75  92 /  20  60  20  70
FPR  73  91  72  91 /  20  60  40  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Tollefsen