873
FXUS62 KMLB 020725
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
225 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 225 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

- Very cold conditions will continue this morning, with a
  widespread frost and freeze forecast again tonight into Tuesday
  morning. A Freeze Warning and a rare Extreme Cold Warning are
  in effect for all of east central Florida through 10 AM this
  morning. Another Freeze Warning then goes into effect for much
  of the area tonight through early Tuesday morning.

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions and a High Risk for rip
  currents and rough surf will linger early this week.

- Temperatures reach near normal values briefly into midweek,
  before another cold front leads to cooler/colder than normal
  conditions into late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Currently...Temperatures continue to plummet, with another
widespread hard freeze expected across the area through this
morning, as lows drop into the mid to upper 20s. These lows are
forecast to again break daily records and may near all-time February
lows again (some which were set just last night), mainly at Vero
Beach and Fort Pierce. While NW winds are lighter tonight, wind
speeds around 5-10 mph will produce dangerous wind chill values as
low as 15 to 20 degrees early this morning. An Extreme Cold Warning
continues for all counties through 10 AM this morning and a Freeze
Warning persists through 11 AM this morning.

Today-Tuesday...High pressure over the Gulf shifts eastward and
across the area tonight into Tuesday. After a very cold start this
morning, max temps will climb a little higher than yesterday, but
still be well below normal in the 50s, even under full sunshine.
Another widespread freeze is expected tonight, as high pressure,
light winds and much drier air will lead to favorable radiational
cooling conditions. Temperatures should drop quickly after sunset.
Some high clouds moving in late tonight may help offset the
radiational cooling some, allowing temperatures to slow their
decline overnight. Still, lows are forecast to reach the upper 20s
to low 30s for many areas, and there is still a moderate chance,
around 30-50%, for hard freeze conditions across normally colder
areas of northern Lake/inland Volusia counties and across more rural
areas of southern Osceola and Okeechobee counties. Portions of the
barrier islands, highly urbanized metro areas of Orlando and coastal
Martin County are forecast to stay just above the freezing mark.
However, even for those spots that don`t fall below freezing, areas
to widespread frost are favored to form. Therefore, it`s still
important to protect sensitive vegetation from these frost/freeze
conditions areawide tonight. A Freeze Warning has been issued for 11
PM tonight through 9 AM Tuesday morning for all of east central
Florida, except coastal Martin County where a Frost Advisory has
been issued for the same time period.

Dry conditions persist into Tuesday, with highs climbing into the
60s. Temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing into Tuesday
night, but lows in the mid to upper 30s and patchy frost will be
possible, mainly across the interior.

Wednesday-Sunday...Another cold front moves into the Southeast U.S.
on Wednesday and eventually crosses the area late Wednesday night
into Thursday. Highs will be closer to normal, in the 70s, on
Wednesday, with dry conditions prevailing. Rain chances then
increase into Wednesday night, up to 30-50 percent, and linger into
Thursday as front approaches and pushes through the region.
Instability ahead of this boundary continues to look limited, so
lightning storms are not forecast. Despite the brief rise in temps
to more normal values midweek, temperatures again turn cooler behind
the front Thursday and colder than normal into Thursday night. Lows
are forecast in the mid 30s to low 40s, with a low to moderate
chance (20-40%) chance for another freeze for rural areas NW of I-4
and inland areas south of the Orlando metro.

Behind the front, dry conditions look to prevail late week and even
into the weekend, even as another front is forecast to push through
the area. Temperatures look to remain near to below normal, but
certainly not as cold as temperatures starting this week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Today-Tonight...Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue across
the waters through tonight. High pressure over the Gulf shifts
eastward and across Florida, which will allow N/NW winds to
gradually diminish from 15-20 knots to start this morning to 10-15
knots tonight. A Small Craft Advisory persists across the entire
waters through mid-morning, and then gradually scales back to just
the gulf stream as seas subside from 7-10 feet this morning to 7-9
feet across the gulf stream late afternoon into tonight.

Tuesday-Friday...High pressure across the area Tuesday shifts
eastward through midweek, with ridge axis remaining across the
waters. This will allow boating conditions to gradually improve
through Wednesday, but seas will continue to be poor to hazardous,
up to 6-7 feet, across the gulf stream into Tuesday. Another cold
front will approach central Florida Wednesday night and through the
region Thursday, leading to deteriorating conditions once again into
late week as winds increase out of the W/NW up to 15-25 knots and
seas build.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1210 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Dry VFR conditions and northwest winds prevail through the TAF
period at all ECFL terminals. Gusts to 20 kts possible from KTIX-
KSUA between 14Z-20Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 225 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

High pressure gradually builds in from the west and across the area
tonight through Tuesday, which will allow north-northwest winds to
weaken. Wind speeds will still increase up to 10-15 mph this
afternoon and then become light and variable tonight through
Tuesday. Critically low Min RH values in the low to mid 20s will
continue areawide today, and will then be confined to mostly near
to west of I-95 on Tuesday afternoon (around 25-35%). No
mentionable rain chances forecast through early this week. Smoke
dispersion values will be good to very good today and then become
poor to fair on Tuesday as surface and transport winds diminish.

Winds increase out of the southwest slightly, up to 5-10 mph, on
Wednesday as another cold front moves into the southeast United
States. Min RH values will again fall to near to just below critical
values, dropping as low as 30-40% across the interior.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 225 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Monday, February 2nd:
                            RECORD   NORMAL  RECORD      NORMAL
                    DATE    LOWS     LOWS    COOL-HIGHS  HIGHS
Daytona Beach (DAB) 2-Feb   32 1980  50      51 1980     70
Leesburg (LEE)      2-Feb   29 1980  50      48 1980     71
Sanford (SFB)       2-Feb   33 1980  51      49 1980     72
Orlando (MCO)       2-Feb   32 1980  51      54 1951     73
Melbourne (MLB)     2-Feb   33 1980  52      55 1994     73
Vero Beach (VRB)    2-Feb   34 1980  53      55 1980     74
Fort Pierce (FPR)   2-Feb   34 1980  52      57 1994     74

All Time February Records:
                     RECORD          RECORD
                     LOWS            COOL-HIGHS
Daytona Beach (DAB)  23 02/01/2026   43 02/09/1947
Leesburg (LEE)       23 02/01/2026   42 02/05/1996
Sanford (SFB)        23 02/01/2026   38 02/03/1951
Orlando (MCO)        19 02/07/1895   39 02/08/1895
Melbourne (MLB)      25 02/01/2026   43 02/09/1947
Vero Beach (VRB)     26 02/01/2026   46 02/09/1947
Fort Pierce (FPR)    25 02/05/1996   43 02/04/1917

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  54  31  62  39 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  55  33  64  41 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  55  31  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  56  31  65  44 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  54  32  64  40 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  55  32  64  40 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  54  35  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  56  30  65  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-
     044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-
     547-647-747.

     Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-044>046-
     053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-
     747.

     Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
     FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-264-347-
     447-547-647-747.

     Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
     FLZ164.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ555-572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Haley