703
FXUS62 KMLB 310746
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
246 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 246 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

- Chance for Dense Sea Fog Developing Along Portions of the
  Atlantic Coast early this morning.

- Breezy and warm today ahead of a slowing and weakening cold
  front, forecast to arrive on Saturday.

- Confidence increasing in above normal temperatures through the
  first full week of February.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

Current...Surface high pressure centered off of the mid Atlc coast
with light SERLY winds across ECFL. Above climo temps in the 50s and
dry conditions. Primary weather concern early in the period
surrounds fog potential and will continue to monitor. For drivers
encountering fog early this morning, slow down, use only low-beam
headlights, and leave plenty of distance between vehicles.
Conditions will improve by mid to late morning as fog dissipates.

Today-Tonight...Aforementioned high pressure pushes deeper into the
western Atlc with the approach of a weak cold front that will move
into the central peninsula late overnight into early Sat morning.
Before this occurs, SE/S winds veer SW during the afternoon, though
may stay SE/S along the immediate coast. The pressure gradient will
tighten and produce wind speeds in upwards of 10-15 mph and perhaps
a little stronger along the immediate coast with higher gusts (20-25
mph). Highs will approach the L80s - perhaps a few M80s across the
interior, with U70s to around 80F for the immediate coast with a
slight onshore wind component here. If any fog or low clouds develop
early this morning, heating will be delayed a bit. Overnight lows
in the U50s to L60s. Keeping conditions mainly dry with the front,
but cannot rule out entirely a sprinkle/brief shower with boundary
passage northward.

Sat-Sat Night...The weakening cold front will continue to press
southward during the morning/early afternoon from central FL thru
the Treasure Coast and Lake Okeechobee. Without a stronger push
from energy aloft, this boundary may stall across the south-
central peninsula with modest moisture pooling along it.
Considerable cloudiness will accompany the front, though precip
chances remain below 20pct. Light NW/N winds veering further to
NNE/NE during the afternoon, post-frontal. Cooler highs for most,
with U60s to around 70F for coastal Volusia/north Brevard counties
and mainly L70s across the I-4 corridor, then M-U70s southward,
except a few L80s possible in Okeechobee County and interior St.
Lucie/Martin counties. Lows mild and in the M-U50s north of I-4
and L60s southward, except M60s along the Martin County Coast.

Sun-Fri...The previous front may linger Sun into early next week,
and though not explicitly in the forecast - there could be some
light rain chances. However, confidence does not permit inclusion
at this time. Otherwise, mid-level ridging gradually builds
northward from the FL Straits during the extended keeping troughs
and energy north of central FL. Weak surface high pressure builds
across the region, though the next cold front may approach the
central peninsula Fri night. For now, keeping conditions mostly
dry. A warming trend begins again on Sun with temperatures
remaining well above normal thru next week. L-M70s for the Volusia
coast and north Brevard Sun, with U70s to L80s most everywhere
else; then U70s to around 80F at the coast with light onshore flow
and L-M80s interior Mon-Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

Today-Tonight...Mariners will need to monitor for sea fog
development early this morning across the intracoastal and near
shore Atlc waters - primarily Ft. Pierce northward. Should fog
develop, it will slowly burn off thru mid-late morning. High
pressure in control with SE/S winds 10-15 kts near shore
increasing to 15-20 kts offshore - mainly north of Ft. Pierce
Inlet as the pgrad tightens with the approach of a weak cold
front. Will handle with Cautionary Statements for now and monitor
if a short-fused Small Craft Advisory is necessary for a portion
of the offshore waters. Winds will veer more SWRLY tonight, then
W/NW (Volusia waters) ahead of daybreak Sat morning. Can`t rule
out an ISOLD shower after midnight north of the Cape. Seas 2-3 ft
near shore and 3-4 ft offshore during the day, building 2-4 ft
near shore and up to 5 ft well offshore north of the Cape tonight.

Sat-Tue...On Sat, winds will continue to veer to NRLY behind the
boundary and wind speeds decrease as well. Onshore winds develop Sat
night thru Sun, then become a bit more variable early next week up
to 10 kts. Seas subside to 2 ft near shore and 3 ft offshore
(occasionally 4 ft well offshore north of Cape) thru early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1220 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

Guidance has backed off of fog potential across the interior terminals,
so decided to remove the prevailing MVFR lines at the interior
terminals. Along the coast, some short range guidance continues
to hint at VIS reductions early this morning as a result of
developing sea fog moving inland, so kept TEMPOs in at DAB, TIX,
MLB, VRB, and FPR for now, with VIS and CIG reductions down to
IFR/LIFR. Will monitor how conditions evolve over the next several
hours and amend as needed. Dry through the period, with SE winds
becoming S into the afternoon around 10 knots. Gusty conditions
possible along the Treasure Coast terminals, with gusts up to 25
knots possible. Winds remaining southerly tonight around 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  59  70  57 /   0  10   0  10
MCO  82  62  73  62 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  78  58  73  60 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  81  60  78  63 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  82  62  75  59 /   0  10   0   0
SFB  82  61  73  60 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  82  62  74  61 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  81  59  78  62 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Tollefsen