434
FXUS62 KMLB 041922 CCA
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
322 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

- Dangerous beach and marine conditions including life-
  threatening rip currents, high surf with breaking waves of 5 to
  8 feet, and minor to moderate beach erosion especially near
  times of high tide, will continue through the weekend and into
  early next week.

- Scattered to numerous fast-moving showers off the Atlantic will
  support locally heavy rainfall where banding features can
  develop. Localized flooding will be a concern through the
  weekend and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...A broad, weakening cutoff low over the
Gulf and Florida lost in the base of deep ridging over the eastern
US starts to get swept up by a trough approaching from the western
US. The ridge sharpens a bit in response to the approaching
trough, but the axis generally remains anchored over the eastern
seaboard. The resident surface high pressure centered over the
Mid-Atlantic subtly shifts offshore in response to the approaching
trough and attendant surface weather system, but the tight ENE
pressure gradient on the southern side of the high remains draped
across Central Florida. A weak low pressure system over The
Bahamas will gradually slide west-northwest around the periphery
of the surface high, likely weakening into an open wave/trough
over the next 24-36 hours, and has been stricken from the Tropical
Weather Outlook as a result. Some tightening of the pressure
gradient across the area from this weak disturbance is possible,
but likely won`t be noticeable until early Sunday, if at all.

Easterly winds 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph and very moist
lower-levels will continue to support scattered to numerous fast
moving showers. Drier air aloft will be a hurdle to deep
convection, especially across the far north where there is less
instability, keeping showers brief and moderate, but a bit of
upper level energy and daytime heating are supporting bands of
heavier showers with embedded thunderstorms producing occasional
cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds, and torrential downpours
from Orlando (proper) to Titusville south. There remains potential
for training of heavy rainfall that could result a quick 1-3" of
rainfall in a short period of time, leading to ponding of water on
roads and minor flooding of urban, low-lying, and poor drainage
areas. Locations that have received significant rainfall over the
last week or so will have higher sensitivity due to saturated
soils, especially coastal Volusia and Martin, but latest guidance
and trends indicate the highest rainfall accumulations will be
inland of these specific locations.

At the beaches, large breaking wave of 5-8 ft will continue to
pound the coast, producing high/rough surf and numerous life-
threatening rip currents. Wave run-up to the dune line will
continue to cause minor to moderate erosion near the times of high
tide which will occur between 5-9pm (the higher of the two).

Sunday-Monday...Aloft the ridge over the eastern seaboard is
flattened down over the southeast/Gulf by the trough swinging in
from the west. The surface high pressure over the eastern seaboard
moves out to sea in response to the trough, but this has a pretty
negligible effect on the pressure gradient across the area which
remains fairly tight, continuing brisk onshore flow. Confidence
is increasing the weak low/wave over The Bahamas will track west-
northwestward towards South Florida, not having a significant
effect on local conditions. At this juncture, it`s looking like
the weak low in the North Gulf will have more of impact, as it
could help drag deeper moisture across the Florida peninsula. As a
result, we can`t shake the higher rain chances and heavy rainfall
threat until closer to mid-week. ECM has PWATs increase to around
2" by Sunday morning, while the GFS is a little slower resulting
in a tight gradient from 1.6" up north to +2" down south on
Sunday, then also increasing to 2" or more by Monday. For what
seems like the 3rd day in a row in the day 2-3 forecast period,
rain chances of 50-70% on Sunday increase to around 70% Monday.
The East Central Florida coast remains outlooked in a Marginal
(level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. With the brisk onshore
flow not letting up, the prolonged period of dangerous beach and
marine conditions will continue into early next week, though a
worsening of conditions looks unlikely given the current forecast
for the Bermuda low/wave. High Surf Advisories, Rip Current
Statements, and Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect through
Monday. High tides are running 1-3 feet above normal and this will
continue to affect locations along the intracoastal waters as
well, especially as we enter the next set of high astronomical
tides next week. We are also monitoring points along the St. Johns
River where heavy rainfall could lead to additional river
flooding. The river has already reached Moderate Flood Stage at
Astor and is forecast to reach Action Stage at Geneva early next
week.

Tuesday-Friday...Some drier air is forecast to move in Tuesday or
Wednesday as the surface high now over the western Atlantic
continue to push further out to sea. Another strong surface high
is forecast to develop over the northern US, following quickly
behind the previous high as it moves towards the Northeast, with
a weaken cold front and associated ribbon of moisture stuck
between the two. There is decreasing confidence when or if this
moisture will make it to Florida, with the latest model guidance
calling for it to fall short, which has brought rain chances for
the latter half of the week down. Winds finally relent a little,
but not enough to alleviate coastal flooding/beach erosion
concerns as the arrival of this month`s set of high astronomical
tides has the potential to continue these impacts. Beach
conditions are also likely to remain poor to hazardous, as are
marine conditions over the Atlantic waters.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

(Modified Previous Discussion) Solid Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
conditions are occurring over the local Atlc waters as tight
pressure gradient around sfc high along the eastern seaboard
supports ENE winds at 20-25 knots with frequent gusts to 30 kts
and occasional gusts to 35 knots. These winds and long period
swell have built seas 7-12 feet and these very hazardous
conditions will persist through the weekend and into early next
week. There should be some relaxation of the pressure gradient by
mid-week allowing speeds to dip below 20 knots esp across the
southern waters, but seas will be slow to subside. SCA extensions
look likely esp for the offshore waters as onshore flow is
forecast to persist for the foreseeable future with pressure
gradient supporting 15-20 knots. High coverage of showers and
isolated storms containing heavy rain and cloud to water lightning
this weekend into early next week. Some drying is forecast to
move in from the northeast mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Scattered showers continue to stream onshore this afternoon.
Some VIS/CIG reductions have been observed in heavier showers.
However, the generally scattered nature and the fact that this
activity is forecast to persist through at least 0Z make timing
any TEMPOs tricky and the sporadic nature trends to VCSH, as
opposed to SHRA. This will be monitored through the afternoon,
with TEMPOs as needed when heavier, training bands of showers
develop. VCSH looks to diminish for the interior this evening and
overnight, though showers will remain possible along the coast
through the period. Additional showers are then forecast Sunday. A
few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out, though the overall
threat for lightning is low.

Breezy conditions outside of any showers, with easterly winds near
15-18 kts and gusts up to 20-25 kts. Showers have and will
continue to locally enhance wind gusts to around 30 kts. Breezy
conditions will persist along the coast overnight, as inland winds
slacken to near 10-12 kts. Similar wind conditions are forecast
for tomorrow, increasing at the coast by 13Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  84  74  83 /  50  50  50  70
MCO  74  86  75  86 /  40  60  40  70
MLB  77  85  76  84 /  50  60  60  70
VRB  77  85  76  85 /  50  60  60  70
LEE  73  86  74  85 /  20  60  30  60
SFB  74  85  75  85 /  40  50  40  70
ORL  75  86  75  85 /  40  60  40  70
FPR  77  86  76  85 /  50  60  60  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for FLZ041-141-154-159-164-
     247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ141-154-159-
     164-347-447-647-747.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ550-552-555-
     570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Leahy