294
FXUS62 KMLB 031937
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
337 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

- Hot and humid conditions with peak afternoon heat indices up to
  107 and Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts will continue
  through the first half of the week.

- Near to above normal rain chances will offer some respite from
  the heat, but also bring risk of strong storms capable of gusty
  winds, deadly lightning, and very heavy rain.

- Incoming NE swell will increase the risk of rip currents in the
  surf zone starting Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Thru Tonight...Late morning Cape sounding continues to show a
moist column with PWATs just over 2 inches but there are a couple
of narrow dry slots at 875mb and a more significant one at 700mb.
As a result, the sea breeze is less convectively active than
previous days and slower to push inland. The west coast sea breeze
is pushing steadily across the peninsula and a collision will
occur over our FA so expect some increase in storm coverage into
early evening. Slow moving storms will produce a heavy rain threat
and WPC has expanded the MRGL excessive rainfall potential to
include all of Volusia county. Gusty winds and frequent lightning
will accompany the stronger storms. Coverage looks to be 30-40%,
ending by midnight.

Mon-Tue...A weak upper-level blocking pattern develops and drifts
very slowly eastward over the eastern US, with troughing on the
southern side of this feature digging down to the North Gulf Coast
as shortwaves move through the pattern. In the low levels, a weak
frontal boundary oscillates a bit over north Florida. NHC has
increased probabilities on AL95 to develop into a Tropical Storm
soon as it moves NE into the open Atlc. Meanwhile, a weak Atlc
ridge axis will lift north across central Florida and produce a
more southerly low level wind flow (as opposed to SW). This will
allow the sea breeze to develop a little earlier and push inland
farther. This will result in the sea breeze collision occurring
farther inland near Orlando metro late in the day. PWATs remain
high (2.0"+) so rain chances are 60-70% over the interior/Volusia
while remaining lower (30-50%) along the coast south of the Cape.
The stronger storms will be capable of gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and heavy rainfall.

Max temps remain in the low to mid 90s and combined with a slight
increase in dewpoints/humidity, peak heat indices will inch
upward to 103-107, flirting with Heat Advisory criteria (again)
esp Tue. Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts are forecast.

After several days of low rip current risk, incoming NE swell
from AL95 is forecast to reach central FL Atlantic beaches Monday
morning and increase the risk of dangerous rip currents.

Wed-Sat (modified)...Upper-level blocking gradually loosens up
through late week, but persistent troughing over the Southeast
continues until Saturday or so, giving way to broad mid-level
ridging across the Subtropical Atlantic and Gulf. With little
large scale forcing, the stationary front continues its residency
across north FL through late week, with some signs from guidance
it`ll eventually get ushered off by early next week. In the
meantime, ensemble means place a very weak Bermuda High ridge axis
near to north of Central Florida, bringing us generally
onshore/easterly flow through the period. There is a modest amount
of uncertainty in the extended range forecast due to weak
forcing, weak pressure gradient, and the continued potential for
another disturbance to develop along the stationary front offshore
the Carolina coast. The primary risk for EC FL will continue to
be incoming swell maintaining at least a moderate rip current risk
at the beaches. With near to slightly above normal moisture and
the presence of the front, the forecast continues to call for rain
chances slightly above normal, higher inland and lower along the
coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

The Atlantic high pressure ridge axis which has been located just
south of the local waters will lift north across the area early
this week while a weak frontal boundary remains nearly stationary
across north FL. Wind flow will become more southerly, turning
E/SE each afternoon behind the sea breeze. Wind speeds will be 10
knots or less. A light NE flow is forecast to develop Thu around
a weak low that develops along the stalled front offshore the
Carolinas. Incoming NE swell will build seas 3 ft nearshore and
4-5 feet offshore tonight and Mon, subsiding 2-4 ft by Wed.
Offshore moving storms are possible this evening and again late
Mon and Tue. Some storms could become strong and produce locally
high winds over 34 kts and frequent cloud to water lightning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 159 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

VFR outside of convection. Lower coverage of showers and storms
is forecast across the north interior today, and have kept mention
of PROB30 for the greater Orlando terminals, including MCO, SFB,
and ISM. VCTS along the coast as the sea breeze develops and moves
inland. Have kept a TEMPO at TIX (22/01Z) where models suggest
reasonable confidence for TSRA impacts. Southwest winds back south
to southeast as the east coast sea breeze passes. Ongoing
convection at sunset could linger a few hours into the evening.
Dry conditions forecast overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  92  77  92 /  40  60  30  60
MCO  77  95  77  94 /  20  70  30  60
MLB  77  92  78  92 /  30  40  20  50
VRB  74  93  75  92 /  20  40  20  40
LEE  77  94  77  93 /  20  70  30  60
SFB  78  94  77  94 /  30  70  30  60
ORL  78  95  78  94 /  30  70  30  60
FPR  74  93  74  92 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Law