765
FXUS62 KMLB 190756
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
356 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

- High Surf ADVISORY for Volusia & Brevard Coasts, effective this
  afternoon for 5-8 FT breakers & minor beach/dune erosion
  expected. Treasure Coast to see similar conditions by Wednesday.

- The HIGH Risk of deadly rip currents will persist all week and
  likely this weekend as Hurricane Erin churns up the Atlantic
  with a large swell.

- Dangerous boating conditions are forecast through much of this
  week as seas only slowly subside behind Erin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Today-Wed...Latest NHC forecast brings Hurricane Erin northward,
remaining east of FL. The closest approach of the center of
Hurricane Erin is forecast to occur before sunrise Wed, about 415
east of Cape Canaveral. Nonetheless, significant coastal and
boating effects will be felt here. Building swells from Hurricane
Erin will lead to an ongoing HIGH risk of rip currents along with
breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet producing rough pounding surf with
minor beach and dune erosion, particularly during the high tide
cycles which are occurring now between 5 and 7 AM and again 5 to 7
PM. (There are 2 high tide cycles per 24hr). A High Surf Advisory
will go into effect this afternoon for the Volusia and Brevard
coasts. The Treasure coast will also need a High Surf Advisory by
early Wed as Erin lifts north of the protective Bahama bank.
Overall, there will be dangerous conditions at the local beaches
and entering the surf is not advised.

In addition to the deteriorating beach and boating conditions,
a tightening pressure gradient around Erin will produce
breezy NE winds today, 10-20 mph with gusts 25 mph that will back
out of the north-northwest on Wednesday. Somewhat lower rain
chances are forecast both days due to the subsidence around the
periphery of the hurricane but maintained rain chances around 40
to 50 percent. Temperatures remain very warm, with highs in the
low to mid 90s and overnight lows in the 70s. Peak heat indices
remain just below Heat Advisory criteria at 102 to 106.

Thursday-Monday...A mid and surface level ridge is forecast to
build just south of the Florida peninsula as Hurricane Erin moves
northeastward out to sea. This set-up will result in prevailing
light offshore flow locally, with a return of moisture forecast
through the end of this week and into the weekend. The offshore
flow should not be strong enough to hold off the east coast sea
breeze so the sea breeze collision will favor the eastern side of
the peninsula. Based on this, kept PoPs 50-70% in the extended
period. Warm conditions persist through the period, with highs in
the low 90s and peak heat indices 100 to 105.

At the beaches, conditions will be slow to improve even as
Hurricane Erin accelerates NE away from the area. A HIGH risk of
rip currents will continue at the beaches all week, and likely
through the weekend. Entering the surf is not advised.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Boating conditions are deteriorating across the local Atlantic
waters today and will deteriorate further tonight and Wednesday
as Hurricane Erin lifts northward east of Florida. The current NHC
forecast has the closest approach of the center of Erin about 415
east of Cape Canaveral early Wed. North to northeast winds
increase to 15 knots today, with gusts up to 25 knots. Winds then
back out of the north-northwest tonight and Wednesday with speeds
15-20 knots gusting up to 30 knots. Seas are forecast to continue
to build with nearshore seas peaking at 6 to 11 feet and offshore
seas peaking at 9 to 15 feet on Wednesday. While Erin is forecast
to turn NE and accelerate away from the area late this week and
winds weaken to 10 to 15 knots, seas will be slow to subside
across the local waters. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for
most of the waters thru Thu eve, which will expand to the
nearshore Treasure coast waters by this evening. SCA extensions
in time past Thu night especially for the offshore waters will
likely be needed.

In particular, very dangerous conditions will exist at inlets
especially during the outgoing tide cycle due to the incoming
large, long period swells produced by Erin.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 158 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Low level clouds are observed around east central Florida this
morning, remaining mostly VFR. New guidance has introduced a
round of showers developing near the coast from TIX southward
before sunrise. Have kept mention of VCSH for these coastal
terminals and may need short fuse amendments later this morning
if confidence in the models is recognized. North-northeast winds
increase through mid morning, with gusts around 17-22 kts at most
terminals. Onshore flow will keep occasional rounds of isolated
showers possible along the coast through most of the TAF period
and have kept a prevailing mention of VCSH. VCSH/VCTS is forecast
at inland terminals generally after 18Z, moving west of the
greater Orlando terminals around 22Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  77  90  75 /  40  20  40  10
MCO  93  77  94  77 /  50  10  50  10
MLB  91  78  92  76 /  50  20  50  20
VRB  92  75  93  75 /  50  20  50  20
LEE  92  76  93  78 /  40  10  30  10
SFB  91  77  93  77 /  50  20  50  10
ORL  93  78  93  78 /  50  10  50  10
FPR  91  74  93  73 /  50  20  50  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     FLZ141-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ550-552-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ570-572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Law