540
FXUS62 KMLB 251852
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
252 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast this
  through this evening, with slightly greater coverage forecast
  on Sunday. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and some small hail
  are possible.

- Favorable boating conditions through the weekend, becoming poor
  over the Gulf Stream Monday into Tuesday behind a front.

- Warming up this weekend, slightly cooler along the coast early
  next week, then hotter mid to late week as high pressure builds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Today-Tonight... An upper level trough along the eastern seaboard
today will slowly push offshore into the Atlantic waters through
this evening as another trough pushes eastward into the eastern US.
Multiple rounds of shortwave energy will traverse across the Florida
peninsula and the local area through the day in the northwest flow
aloft. At the surface, high pressure in the western Atlantic will
weaken, with the axis remaining over the Florida peninsula. This
will result in southwest flow locally with winds becoming enhanced
and turning onshore in the afternoon with the development of the
east coast seabreeze. Model guidance indicates the east and west
coast sea breeze will collied near the Orlando metro late in the
day.

Moisture will increase in the afternoon, with forecast PW
values increasing to 1.3-1.5" in vicinity of the next passing
shortwave. This increase in moisture will help slightly increase
rain chances today from what they have been the past couple of days.
There is a low to medium (20-30 percent) chance of rain this
afternoon, with the greatest potential for showers and storms
occurring across the interior where the sea breeze collision is
forecast to occur. Forecast sounding show adequate instability (300-
500 J/kg of MUCAPE),cooler temperatures aloft ( -12 to -13C at
500mb), negative lifted index values, as well as sufficient
downdraft potential (DCAPE around 500-800 J/kg). Because of this,
stronger storms (especially those that are coupled with the passing
shortwave energy aloft) will be capable of producing frequent
lightning, gusty winds of 40-45 mph, and small hail. Showers and
isolated storms will then begin to push back towards the coast and
offshore through early evening. Any lingering activity should
dissipate or move out of the local area by midnight.

Temperatures will remain above normal as the warming trend continues
today with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. A Minor HeatRisk
exists across portions of east central Florida today, especially
across the interior and along the coast from Cape Canaveral
southward. Overnight lows will be mild, albeit slightly warmer than
the previous night, with lows in the low to mid 60s. Patchy fog will
be possible late tonight into early Sunday morning, mainly across
the interior, with the greatest potential around the Orlando Metro
area. Any lingering fog should dissipate around 9 AM.

Sunday-Sunday night.... An upper level trough across the eastern US
will steadily push eastward and off the coast into the Atlantic
through the day. Much like today, several rounds of shortwave energy
will travel across the Florida peninsula through the period. Surface
high pressure in the western Atlantic will continue to weaken as its
axis loosely remains over the Florida peninsula. Locally, winds will
turn southwest to westerly with the sea breeze pattern continuing.
However, due to the dominate offshore flow, the west coast sea
breeze will dominate, with the east coast sea breeze remaining
pinned near I-95 in the afternoon.

Forecast PW values will be around 1.3-1.5", which will support
higher rain chances across the local area. There is a medium (30-50
percent) chance of rain in the afternoon. The greatest potential for
storms will once again be across the interior, especially near the
Orlando Metro as the dominate west coast sea breeze pushes through
and interacts with outflow boundaries. The environment looks
slightly more conducive for storm activity with forecast soundings
showing plenty of instability (700-1200+ J/kg of MUCAPE), cooler
temperatures aloft (-10 to -11C at 500mb), negative lifted index
values, as well as sufficient downdraft potential (DCAPE around 600-
800 J/kg). Because of this, stronger storms (especially those that
are coupled with the passing shortwave energy) will be capable of
producing frequent lightning, gusty winds of 40-50 mph, and small
hail. Any lingering activity will push back towards the coast and
offshore through early evening.

The warming trend continues with afternoon highs in the mid to upper
80s, maybe even a couple locations near 90 degrees. A Minor HeatRisk
will expand to most of east central Florida on Sunday. Overnight
lows will increase slightly, especially across the south, with
lows generally in the 60s.

Monday-Saturday... An upper level trough across the Ohio Valley on
Monday will push eastward and off the eastern seaboard on Tuesday.
An upper level low pressure over Canada will drop down into the
Great Lakes region mid to late week before it deepens across the Mid
Atlantic States and moves out into the Atlantic by late week/early
weekend. At the surface, a strengthening low pressure system off the
eastern US coast on Monday will push a "back-door" front across east
central Florida Monday. High pressure will then build down from the
eastern US across the Florida peninsula and remain in place through
mid week. Models are coming into better agreement that a cold front
across the Deep South will then approach the local area on Thursday.
However, uncertainty remains in how cleanly the front will pass
through, with WPC showing the front clearing ECFL by early Friday
morning.

There is a low to medium (20-30 percent) chance of rain on Monday
with the back-door front before drier air moves in, keeping mostly
dry conditions through mid week. Rain chances return on Thursday
with the next frontal passage, with lingering moisture maintaining
scattered showers and storms each day through early weekend. Due to
the fact that the trend in rain chances have increased through that
time frame, additional increases in rain chances are possible in
future forecast packages. Will continue to monitor those trends
carefully.

Near to slightly above normal temperatures Monday will resume a
general warming trend through the period. Afternoon highs will reach
low 90s across the interior by mid week, with low 90s expanding
across much of ECFL by the weekend, and even potentially reaching mid
90s across the interior by late week. Overnight lows will be near to
slightly above normal with lows generally in the 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Today-Wednesday... Favorable boating conditions through Sunday
before seas begin to build again as a weak cold front moves through.
Light winds shift south to southeast (onshore) each afternoon as the
sea breeze develops. Seas 2-3 ft through Sunday before building to 4-
6ft on Monday and Tuesday with the frontal passage before decreasing
to 3-5ft on Wednesday as high pressure builds over the local waters.
Winds shift northeast and increase to 10-15 KT Monday. Winds then
decrease to 5-10KT through the rest of the period, with winds
shifting to north to northeast on Tuesday and south to southeast on
Wednesday. While it will be mostly dry across the local waters
today, isolated offshore-moving showers and storms will be possible
through this evening. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are
once again forecast across the local waters Sunday afternoon and
evening with isolated showers possible on Monday. Mostly dry
conditions Tuesday through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

VFR at the sites for now, though iso/sct SHRA and TSRA are
forecast after 19z-20z along and west of the ECSB. Satellite shows
agitated cu from DAB to TIX, and models suggest development in the
next hour or two, so added VCTS there this afternoon. TSRA TEMPOs
remain but were adjusted an hour sooner for SFB/MCO/ISM. Brief
CIG/VIS reductions are possible INVOF heavier SHRA/TSRA. Westerly
flow pushes remaining activity toward the coast after 22-23z, and
additional TEMPOs may be needed TIX/MLB.

As SHRA/TSRA wane or move offshore after 03z, winds decrease.
There is a 20-30% chance for lower VIS 07-12z Sun., but overall
confidence is too low to include in TAF at this time. SW winds
increase to 8-12 kt after 16z Sun. with additional SHRA/TSRA
chances at or beyond the end of this TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Sensitive minRH values continue across portions of the interior
today before moisture gradually recovers Sunday and Monday. Light
winds shift east-southeast around 10-15 mph this afternoon as the
east coast sea breeze moves inland. The west coast sea breeze
becomes favored Sunday, and west winds increase 10-15 mph across
much of the interior in the afternoon. However, a weaker, slower
east coast breeze will still manage to shift wind east-southeast in
vicinity of the I-95 corridor Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers
and storms are forecast this afternoon. Increasing coverage of
scattered showers and storms is forecast Sunday, and new fire starts
are a concern with lightning activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  87  66  82 /  10  40  20  20
MCO  66  88  68  86 /  20  50  10  30
MLB  67  86  68  83 /  30  40  20  20
VRB  66  87  66  84 /  20  30  20  20
LEE  65  87  67  87 /  10  30  10  20
SFB  65  89  67  85 /  20  50  10  20
ORL  67  89  68  87 /  20  50  10  30
FPR  65  87  66  84 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Schaper