636
FXUS62 KMLB 181106
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
706 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

- An active weather pattern is forecast into early next week,
  with scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms
  anticipated through at least Monday.

- Storm hazards will include lightning strikes, gusty to locally
  damaging wind gusts, and heavy downpours. Minor, localized
  flooding will also be possible in some locations.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast through
  next week, with peak heat indices of 100-107F areawide.
  Practice heat safety if spending extended periods of time
  outdoors!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Today-Tonight... Upper level low pressure system will remain in
place through the day, which will support the development of a
surface low across the eastern Gulf and near northwest Florida. The
National Hurricane Center (NHC) has put a 10 percent chance of
tropical development across the northeastern Gulf and northern
Florida over the next 48 hours with this activity. Regardless if
this system becomes tropical over the next several days, the
development of the low will lead to a tightening of the pressure
gradient over the local area, with southerly winds picking up to 10-
15 mph areawide. A weak east coast sea breeze may try to form in the
afternoon, turning the winds onshore behind the sea breeze. But if
it does form, it will  stay somewhat close to the coast. Fairly deep
moisture will continue across the area today due to the southerly
winds which will support convection. Overall rain chances have come
down slightly from the previous shifts due to the trend with the low
pressure forecast shifting slightly westward. Because of that, there
is a low to medium (20-50 percent) chance of showers and storms this
afternoon and evening. Highest coverage of storms will be around
Lake Okeechobee and across the interior near the Greater Orlando
area and is forecast to occur after 2 PM.

Some storms may be strong. The environment supports this with plenty
of instability (MUCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg), adequate shear (SFC-8km
shear is 22 KT), conditionally unstable low-level lapse rates, 500mb
temperatures around -7 C, and sufficient downdraft potential (DCAPE
700-1000 J/kg). Main storm hazards today will be frequent lightning
strikes, gusty winds up to 55mph, and locally heavy rainfall of 1
to 3 inches. Some minor, localized flooding will also be possible
in some locations in training rain bands. Any lingering activity
is forecast to gradually diminish into the late evening and
overnight hours across east central Florida, with mostly dry
conditions anticipated after midnight. However, there will remain
isolated to scattered showers and storms across the Atlantic
waters through the overnight hours.

Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast today with
afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. These temperatures coupled
with high humidity will produce peak heat indices of 100-106
degrees. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. There is a
moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches today. Always swim
near a lifeguard and never swim alone!

Sunday-Monday... The aforementioned upper level low and surface low
pressure across the eastern Gulf and near northwest Florida will
slowly move northward towards the Florida Big Bend on Sunday and
towards the panhandle of Florida into Monday. NHC has maintained
that the low pressure system has a 10 percent chance over the next
48 hours and 30 percent chance over the next 7 days of tropical
development. The pressure gradient will remain tight across the
local area due to this low pressure system, with southerly winds 10-
15 mph areawide. The rain chances continue to slightly decrease over
the local area from previous forecast packages as the low pressure
system trends more westward. There is a medium (30-60 percent)
chance of rain and storms on Sunday and a medium (30-70 percent)
chance on Monday. Highest coverage will be along and north of the I-
4 corridor each afternoon. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC)
continues to highlight portions of east central Florida in a
Marginal Risk (1/4) of excessive rainfall on Monday due to the
saturated soils and the ongoing active pattern. Any lingering shower
and storm activity is forecast to dissipate or move out of the area
each evening, with mostly dry conditions forecast each night. Near
to slightly above normal temperatures will continue with afternoon
high temperatures in the low mid 90s and peak heat indices of 100-
107 degrees. Overnight lows will continue to be in the low to mid
70s.

Tuesday-Friday.... The upper level low pressure system near the
southeast US will gradually diminish into the middle of next week,
causing the surface low to weaken and become diffuse. Surface high
pressure across the western Atlantic will shift its axis northward
from South Florida to central Florida by late week. Locally, winds
will generally be southerly around 10 mph. The east coast sea breeze
is forecast to form each afternoon, turning the winds onshore
(southeasterly) behind the sea breeze. There remains some model
disagreements with how rain chances next week will play out as the
low pressure diminishes. The ECMWF shows drier air moving in across
east central Florida, resulting in lower rain chances. While the GFS
is a wetter solution with moisture lingering across the area,
resulting in higher rain chances. Have maintained the NBM solution,
with a low to medium (20-40 percent) chance of showers and lightning
storms each afternoon. Highest coverage of storms continue to be
across the north. Warming trend is forecast into mid to late week,
with greater coverage of mid 90s for highs forecast Wednesday,
Thursday, and Friday. Overnight lows will remain in the 70s each
night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Today-Wednesday... An area of low pressure is forecast to develop
across the eastern Gulf today, with the low pressure forecast to
move northward towards the Florida panhandle and Big Bend area into
early next week. The formation of the low pressure will result in
the pressure gradient tightening across the local area, increasing
the southerly winds to 10-15 knots across most of the waters. Wind
speeds will increase to 15 to 20 knots across the local waters this
afternoon and into this evening. Because of this, small craft will
need to exercise caution in the offshore waters for those times. The
seas will respond to the increase in winds, increasing to 2 to 4 feet
today. The low will slowly move northward towards the Florida Big
Bend before weakening next week. Southerly winds will persist through
at least the middle of next week, with speeds generally 10-15 knots.
Seas will remain between 2 to 4 feet through early next week, before
slowly subsiding to 2-3 feet on Wednesday. Scattered showers and
storms will continue to be possible, primarily during the late
evening and overnight hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 655 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Light and variable winds persist this morning, picking up out of
the south around 10 knots after 15Z. VCTS chances increase at all
sites after 18Z, with PROB30s forecast generally between 18-21Z
at MLB, VRB, FPR, and SUA and 20-24Z at the interior terminals.
The PROB30s are for VIS and CIG reductions due to TSRA. Activity
is forecast to diminish after 00Z, with lighter south-southeast
winds returning through the overnight hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  76  91  76 /  20  10  50  10
MCO  93  76  93  77 /  40  20  50  10
MLB  91  77  91  77 /  30  10  30  10
VRB  92  76  92  76 /  40  10  40  10
LEE  92  77  91  77 /  30  20  60  20
SFB  94  76  93  77 /  40  20  50  10
ORL  93  77  93  77 /  40  20  50  10
FPR  91  75  92  75 /  40  10  40  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Tollefsen