490
FXUS62 KMLB 231832
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
232 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

- Drier air will result in lower than normal shower and storm
  chances through the remainder of this afternoon and evening.

- Increasing moisture into late week and through the weekend will
  then allow rain chances to return to near to above normal
  values.

- Highs in the low to mid 90s will continue, with peak heat
  indices reaching 102-107F each afternoon, and potentially
  nearing Heat Advisory criteria (108-110F) for portions of the
  area this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Currently-Tonight...GOES-19 TPW imagery shows a fairly dry airmass
across the region, with PW values around 1.5-1.6 inches. This
combined with ridge aloft will keep shower/storm chances low (around
10-20%), and onshore winds will focus the sea breeze collision west
of Lake County into this evening. Therefore mostly dry conditions
are expected to continue through the remainder of the afternoon and
evening across east central FL. However later this evening and into
the overnight hours, deeper moisture associated with an approaching
weak inverted trough will begin to move into the waters. This will
lead to an increase in isolated to scattered showers and storms over
the adjacent Atlantic waters, especially south of the Cape, with
some of this activity reaching and moving onshore along the coast.
PoPs increase to 20-40% near to south of Melbourne, with greatest
potential for rain along the Treasure Coast. Remaining warm and
humid into tonight, with lows in the mid to upper 70s for most
locations.

Friday-Saturday...Deeper moisture (PW values around 2 inches)
overspreads the area into tomorrow and remains in place through
Saturday. This will lead to rising rain chances across the region,
with PoPs as high as 30-60% each day and greatest shower and storm
coverage focused near to south of Orlando. Atlantic ridge axis will
remain north of the area tomorrow, maintaining an onshore flow and
steering scattered showers and storms westward through the
afternoon, with conditions drying out for the evening. Ridge axis
will then begin to slide back southward and across the area Saturday
as it weakens, with sea breeze collision focused across inland
portions of east central FL. A few stronger storms each day will be
capable of gusty winds, frequent lightning strikes, and locally
heavy downpours.

Despite the increase in shower/storm coverage, highs will still be
near to above normal in the low to mid 90s for much of area. Peak
heat index values 100-107F will also nudge closer to Heat Advisory
criteria (108-110F) for portions of the area on Saturday, so will
have to continue to monitor. Either way, widespread Moderate to
Major HeatRisk conditions will continue to impact those without
adequate cooling and hydration.

Sunday-Wednesday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Ridge axis shifts
south and remains south of the area from Sunday through the middle
of next week. Deep moisture (PW of 2+ inches) remains across east
central Florida as a cold front slowly sags across the southeast
United States. Strengthening offshore flow out of the west-southwest
will pin the sea breeze closer to the coast, but could be strong
enough to prevent sea breeze development at times. The deeper
moisture and sea breeze collisions favored across the eastern side
of the peninsula will keep rain chances above normal, with
scattered to numerous showers and storms each afternoon and
evening. Outside of showers and storms, high temperatures will
continue to range from the low to mid 90s. Peak heat index values
will still easily reach around 102-107F each afternoon, and could
continue to see portions of the region reach Heat Advisory
criteria.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Atlantic ridge axis will remain north of the area through tomorrow,
before it slides southward and weakens on Saturday, and then will
remain south of the waters Sunday into early next week. Boating
conditions are forecast to remain mostly favorable over the next
several days, as winds speeds stay mostly below 15 knots and seas
range from 1-4 feet. Winds continue out of the east direction
tomorrow, and gradually become more predominant out of the west to
southwest Sunday through Tuesday. The east coast sea breeze will
still form on Saturday, turning winds to the E/SE.

Isolated showers and storms are forecast south of the Cape through
this afternoon, becoming scattered in coverage late tonight and into
early Friday. Offshore moving showers and storms are forecast
Saturday afternoon and evening, building in coverage Sunday into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

VFR conditions are forecast outside of showers and lightning
storms. ESE winds at 8-10kts with gusts up to 16kts are forecast
to weaken into the evening hours to light and variable,
especially after 00Z-03Z before increasing to 8-10kts after 14Z
FRI. VCTS is forecast at KMCO after 18Z FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  90  76  93 /  10  10   0  20
MCO  76  95  76  97 /   0  30  10  50
MLB  78  89  77  91 /  10  40  10  50
VRB  78  90  76  92 /  20  50  10  60
LEE  77  95  77  95 /  10  20   0  20
SFB  76  94  76  96 /   0  20   0  30
ORL  76  94  77  96 /   0  30  10  40
FPR  77  90  75  91 /  30  50  10  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Fehling