273
FXUS62 KMLB 231441
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
941 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 930 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

- Pleasant today with near seasonable temperatures

- Rain arriving later tonight and especially Monday with
  widespread accumulations of 0.5-1.0 inch, locally up to 2
  inches.

- Slightly cooler early this week then a more significant cool
  down late week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

Passage of a weak sfc trough last night brought a light north
breeze and drier air. Mid levels in particular dried out behind a
mid level shortwave trough so the day has started clear/sunny.
Wind flow will turn NE to E this afternoon as a sea breeze pushes
inland. No significant changes to current short term forecast.
Seasonable max temps in the low to mid 70s, coolest along the
Volusia coast due to chilly surf temps. Mid level (altocumulus)
clouds will begin to increase across northern sections this
afternoon from the west but these will not be rain clouds. Fair
weather cumulus will develop elsewhere so dry conditions are
forecast through this eve.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

Today-Tonight...Weak high pressure will build in briefly ahead of
the next approaching low pressure system developing over the
northwest GoA. This feature will traverse the north-central Gulf
early in the day as it moves into the EC Gulf by sunrise Mon
morning. Zonal flow aloft will allow this system to be pushed
forward by vigorous shortwave trough activity moving across the
Deep South. A mostly pleasant day in store as light morning
northerly or variable winds veer onshore at the coast this
afternoon, then slow push inland. We keep conditions dry over land
during the day, then gradual moistening of the airmass into the
evening will promote an increasing light rain threat (north to
south) across ECFL overnight, especially I-4 corridor. Clouds will
begin to increase late in the day into tonight.

Highs today just above seasonal norms in the L70s at the immediate
coast and M-U70s generally W of I-95. Lows tonight mainly in the M-
U50s for most.

Mon-Mon Night...The aforementioned low pressure system will track
eastward across the south-central FL peninsula during the day and
out across the local Atlc waters during the evening/overnight.
Models consistently show highest PWAT values 1.50-1.70 inches
across Lake Okeechobee/Treasure Coast. Numerous showers (70pct)
are forecast and an ISOLD lightning storm (15-24pct) threat will
exist Mon aftn/evening, mainly well south of Orlando. Primary
storm impacts include occasional lightning strikes, locally heavy
downpours, and brief gusty winds up to around 35 mph. Highest
rainfall totals will be well south over our coverage warning area,
closest to the low`s track and where moisture is deepest.
1.00"-1.50" are likely highest totals well southward, but cannot
rule out a few locally higher amounts if multiple heavy showers or
storms are realized. ECFL remains fairly dry and do not initially
foresee any flooding concerns, but of course prone locations
across the Treasure Coast may see minor issues.

Mostly cloudy skies on Mon with temp maxes in the U60s, except a few
L70s possible near Melbourne southward toward Lake Okee and the
Treasure Coast. Overnight mins mainly in the U50s with a few L60s
sprinkled in.

Tue-Sun...The previous system slowly pushes deeper into the western
Atlc, but early Tue we may still experience ISOLD-SCT showers (ISOLD
lightning - St. Lucie/Martin morning). This as moisture slowly
scours out. We gradually dry out through mid-week as the associated
upper trough moves away from the peninsula and we return to zonal
flow aloft. The next upper trough plows across the region Thu
overnight-early Fri. This will force the next cold front (limited
moisture) through the area with only a 20pct threat for light precip
(Fri), with high pressure quickly returning and dry conditions
forecast into the weekend.

After some near breezy northerly surface winds on Tue, light and
variable winds prevail thru Thu, then a brief increase with the next
front on Fri, then lighter winds again Fri night-Sat.

For max temps, L70s return on Tue, M-U70s on Wed, U70s (perhaps near
80F) pre-frontal on Thu. Knocked back down into the U60s/L70s on
Fri and L-M70s into the weekend. For min temps, mostly 50s thru
Fri morning, a bit cooler M-U40s W of I-95 for Sat morning, and a
slight bump upward into Sun morning - but still a little chilly.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

Today-Tonight...A weak frontal boundary passes down the local
waters early, veering winds initially to light NWRLY, then winds
continue to veer into this afternoon to NE/E with speeds remaining
mainly AOB 10 kts. A generally light/variable onshore component
continues tonight. Seas mostly 2-3 ft, but cannot rule out a few 4
ft "sets" early in the period. Isolated shower activity will
accompany the boundary today. With approach of the next low
pressure system, moisture slowly increases into late tonight and
ISOLD-SCT showers will enter the picture again late overnight and
toward daybreak Mon morning, especially Cape northward.

Mon-Mon Night...A low pressure system will push across the south-
central FL peninsula on Mon, emerging across the southern waters Mon
night into early Tue. Onshore winds continue with speeds increasing
10-16 kts during the day. The directional component will begin to
turn northerly Mon overnight. Shower activity is forecast to become
numerous and cannot rule out ISOLD lightning storm activity,
especially Mon afternoon-night. Heaviest activity generally south
from the Cape closer towards the low center and where moisture
remains deepest. Seas continue 2-3 ft, but cannot rule out some 4 ft
seas well offshore or invof stronger convection.

Tue-Fri...With some leftover convection on Tue as the low
pressure slowly departs the area, conditions improve Tue night-
Thu. Northerly winds continue on Tue, 12-17kts, with the pgrad
weakening Wed-Thu with veering winds diminishing to 6-12 kts. Seas
2-4 ft thru Wed, then 2-3 ft into Thu evening. A quick-moving
cold (moisture-starved) front will pass down the peninsula Thu
night/early Fri with only a slight chance for precip. This next
system will begin to increase winds and build seas late Thu night
into early Fri.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 635 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

VFR to continue thru 06z Mon. before CIGs fall to MVFR (across
northern sites) by the end of the TAF. Light/variable winds thru
14z gradually veer onshore 5-10 kt this afternoon. VCSH is
introduced at northern sites after 06z with prevailing -SHRA/SHRA
after 09z-11z at DAB/SFB/LEE/MCO/ISM. Rain will spread east and
south beyond the end of the TAF period to eventually include the
remaining terminals. MVFR conditions are anticipated as a result.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  56  68  58 /  10  60  70  40
MCO  75  59  66  60 /   0  50  70  50
MLB  73  59  71  60 /   0  30  70  60
VRB  75  59  73  60 /   0  10  70  70
LEE  74  57  68  58 /   0  60  70  30
SFB  75  57  69  59 /   0  60  70  40
ORL  75  59  68  59 /   0  60  70  40
FPR  75  59  73  60 /   0  10  70  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelly
AVIATION...Schaper