740
FXUS62 KMLB 221252
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
852 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 852 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

- Sensitive fire weather conditions with little to no
  precipitation through the week

- Warm afternoon temperatures continue with highs in the 80s to
  low 90s, especially Wednesday

- At least a Moderate risk for dangerous rip currents will exist
  at area beaches through late week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Persistent pattern of dry weather with high pressure in control
over the western Atlc and stable onshore flow regime, accompanied
by daily sea breeze pushing inland (afternoon) from the east
coast. Primary hazards remain heightened fire sensitivity due to
the very dry and occasionally breezy conditions, and dangerous rip
currents at area beaches. Current forecast package in fine shape.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Today-Thursday... A cold front stalls across the southeast U.S.
today, transitioning into a warm front by Thursday. Aloft, ridging
gradually flattens. A stagnant pattern continues locally, favoring
warm and dry conditions. Any chance for rain remains out of the
short term forecast, with PoPs less than 10 percent each day. High
temperatures climb into the upper 80s and low 90s across the
interior each afternoon. Closer to the coast, a daily sea breeze
pattern will limit highs to the low to mid 80s. Morning low
temperatures remain steady, mostly in the mid to upper 60s.

Low humidity and drying fuels will continue to promote sensitive
fire weather conditions each afternoon, especially across the
interior. Southeast winds around 5-10 mph shift east and increase to
10-15 mph as the sea breeze moves inland each afternoon. Burn bans
continue across several east central Florida counties including
Lake, Seminole, Orange and Volusia.

Friday-Monday... Surface low pressure gradually organizes across the
midwest Friday, dragging a cold front across the southeast U.S.
through the weekend. Modest moisture advection will allow for a low
chance of showers (10-20%) across east central Florida on Sunday as
the front approaches. Onshore flow then redevelops Monday, and this
looks to maintain enough moisture across the area to support a 20
percent chance of diurnal showers. Above normal temperatures are
forecast through the extended period, ranging the upper 80s to low
90s across the interior. Coastal temperatures in the low 80s on
Friday, trend into the mid to upper 80s by Sunday. Low temperatures
continue in the 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Southeast winds around 10 kts back east around 10-15 kts into
Thursday as high pressure retreats seaward. Seas of 2-3 ft build to
3-4 ft late Wednesday. Seas then further build to 5 ft offshore
Thursday night. Dry conditions persist with a low chance for showers
returning late this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 700 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period with high clouds
ABV 120 and scattered lower level cu. CIGs around 030 AGL (on the
cusp of VFR/MVFR conds) will occur at VRB/FPR/SUA through 14Z. SE
to E winds increase 10 knots gusting 15-20 knots esp along the
coast by 17Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

A stagnant warm and dry pattern will continue to promote sensitive
fire weather conditions this week, especially across the interior.
Min RH values are forecast to fall to 35-40 percent across the
interior through late week while ranging 40-55 percent closer to the
coast. Prevailing southeast winds back east into Thursday, and daily
sea breezes will increase onshore winds to 10-15 mph each afternoon.
A low chance (~20%) for showers returns late this weekend as a cold
front approaches the Florida peninsula.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  83  64  84  65 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  88  65  89  66 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  82  67  83  68 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  82  67  84  66 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  89  65  90  65 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  88  64  89  65 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  89  66  89  66 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  82  65  84  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Sedlock
AVIATION...Kelly