316
FXUS62 KMLB 101751
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
151 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

- Poor to hazardous beach and boating conditions forecast today as
  a result of building seas and persistent northeast flow.

- A reinforcing front moves across the area Friday night into
  Saturday, with an area of high pressure building behind the
  front through the remainder of the weekend and into the middle
  of next week.

- Sensitive fire weather conditions are anticipated to develop
  starting Friday, continuing into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 928 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Current regional radar imagery shows mostly dry weather over east
central Florida with a couple of light showers/sprinkles over the
Treasure Coast Atlantic waters. GOES-16 satellite imagery shows
scattered to broken marine stratocumulus clouds over the local
Atlantic waters with partly to mostly cloudy skies over the
coastal counties and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies over the
inland counties. Temperatures are currently in the mid 60s to low
70s with dew points generally in the 60s. Isolated to widely
scattered onshore moving showers (20-30%) are forecast to develop
into the late morning and early afternoon mainly between 10am to 4pm
generally to the east of the Orlando metro. North winds this morning
are expected to veer northeast into the afternoon at around 5-15 mph
with gusts to 20-25mph. Seasonable temperatures are expected today
with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s under partly cloudy
skies.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Today-Tonight...Showers located across the nearshore waters are
forecast to continue moving onshore through the morning hours,
though north-northwest winds will help to diminish them as they
approach the coast. A 20 to 30 percent chance for rain continues
through the morning hours along the immediate coast, and isolated
storms cannot be ruled out, though confidence remains low.
Activity is forecast to diminish late morning through the early
afternoon hours as an area of weak high pressure develops today
across the Gulf. Winds veer from out of the north to out of the
northeast locally at 10 to 15 mph, with periods of higher winds
possible along the coast. Rain chances fall below 10 percent
through the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Temperatures
are forecast to remain near normal, with highs in the upper 70s
to low 80s and overnight lows in the mid 50s to low 60s.

The persistent northeast flow will lead to increasing seas across
the local Atlantic waters, and therefore, deteriorating beach
conditions. A high risk of rip currents is anticipated at all east
central Florida beaches, along with rough surf and breaking waves
around 5 feet. Entering the ocean is not advised today due to
these conditions.

Friday-Saturday...The surface high across the Gulf erodes as a
reinforcing front begins to approach Florida on Friday, with winds
locally becoming west-southwest at 10 to 15 mph. The front is
forecast to move southward across the peninsula Friday night into
Saturday, though current guidance is not overly enthusiastic about
rain chances. The models are remaining in fairly good agreement
about this, though the GFS is just a touch wetter than the Euro.
Stuck with the NBM which focuses the best chances for rain and any
isolated storms primarily across the local Atlantic waters, though
some activity across far northern Lake and Volusia counties
cannot be ruled out. Behind the front, an area of high pressure
and a drier air mass moves in across the peninsula, with rain
chances falling below 10 percent. Winds become northwesterly on
Saturday around 10 to 15 mph. Warmer on Friday with highs in the
low to mid 80s, cooling into Saturday behind the front with highs
in the mid to upper 70s. Lows generally remain in the 50s both
nights, though there could be some spots that fall into the upper
40s on Saturday night.

Sunday-Wednesday...Broad mid-level ridging builds across the Gulf
and towards Florida on Sunday, with its associated surface high
moving into place across Florida through the remainder of the
weekend and into early next week. Conditions locally are
anticipated to remain dry through this period, with PoPs remaining
less than 10 percent. A warming trend is also forecast as the
high remains situated over the peninsula, with near-normal
temperatures on Sunday climbing to above normal values in the
upper 80s and low 90s in spots across the interior on Monday and
Tuesday. Lows generally in the 50s.

The high then shifts eastward out over the Atlantic on Tuesday
out ahead of the next potential frontal passage locally, with a
cold front moving across the peninsula sometime during Wednesday.
Current model guidance remains too unenthusiastic about its
strength to warrant any sort of mention of rain at this time, with
the GFS keeps conditions drier and the Euro remaining slightly
wetter when comparing the two solutions. NBM keeps conditions dry,
so stuck with it for PoPs. The front helps cool temperatures
slightly back to near normal in the upper 70s to mid 80s across
east central Florida, though some spots may still reach the upper
80s. Lows remain generally in the 50s to low 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Hazardous boating conditions persist across the local Atlantic
waters today, with prevailing northeast flow of 15 to 20 knots
helping seas build up to 7 to 11 feet. A Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect into tonight for these hazardous conditions.
Conditions gradually improve as winds diminish to 10 to 15 knots
and seas begin to subside to 3 to 5 feet through the weekend as an
area of high pressure strengthens overhead. Light and variable
winds on Monday across the local waters allow seas to further
subside to 2 to 4 feet.

Lingering showers early this morning diminish through today as
drier air moves into the area. Rain chances increase once again
across the local waters as a reinforcing cold front moves
southward Friday into Saturday, and there is also a low chance
(20 percent) for storms. Behind the front, conditions dry out,
with rain chances anticipated to remain below 10 percent Sunday
through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Showers south of FPR are forecast to continue through around 22Z,
occasionally producing brief MVFR conditions at SUA. Dry
elsewhere, with no precipitation forecast through tomorrow
afternoon. VFR conditions prevailing. Breezy NE winds this
afternoon, with gusts to around 20kts, will diminish this evening.
Light winds overnight will veer WSW and increase to around
8-12kts by 15Z. A sea breeze is forecast to develop along the
Treasure Coast by early afternoon, backing winds SE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Sensitive fire weather conditions are anticipated to develop on
Friday and continue through the weekend and into the middle of
next week as drier air behind a reinforcing cold front settles
across east central Florida. Minimum RH values are forecast to
fall to 35 percent and lower across the interior most afternoons.
Winds reach 10 to 15 mph Friday and Saturday, remaining below 10
mph through the remainder of the weekend and into the middle of
next week. Rain chances also fall below 10 percent, allowing for
the drying of fuels locally. Based on current forecasted
conditions, Red Flag criteria could be met on Friday and Saturday,
but it is too early to make any definitive decisions on whether to
issue products. Will continue to monitor the latest guidance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  60  83  56  74 /  10  20  20  10
MCO  61  85  60  77 /  10  10  10   0
MLB  62  84  59  77 /  10  20  20   0
VRB  60  84  59  78 /  10  20  20   0
LEE  60  83  56  76 /  20  20  20   0
SFB  60  85  58  77 /  10  20  20   0
ORL  62  85  60  77 /  10  10  20   0
FPR  60  84  58  78 /  10  20  20   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ552-570.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ555-572-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Fehling
AVIATION...Leahy/Cole