308
FXUS62 KMLB 201046
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
646 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

- A Heat Advisory is in effect from 12 PM to 6 PM for Lake,
  Orange, Osceola, Okeechobee, Seminole, Volusia, and Brevard
  counties for peak heat indices of 108 to 110.

- Hot and humid conditions with peak afternoon heat indices up to
  110 and Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts continue across
  portions of east central Florida through early this week.

- Rain and lightning storm chances remain below normal through
  today, with chances increasing once again through the work week
  as a weakening front and high moisture approach from the north.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Today-Tonight...A mid-level ridge combined with an area of high
pressure at the surface located directly over the Florida
peninsula will keep conditions mostly dry and hot today. The best
rain and storm chances (30 percent) remain focused near and north
of the I-4 corridor, where a sea breeze collision is forecast to
occur late afternoon into the early evening hours. Any storms that
do manage to develop may be capable of producing lightning
strikes, wind gusts to 45 mph, and brief heavy downpours. Activity
is forecast to diminish into the overnight hours, with mostly dry
conditions tonight.

With the below-normal rain chances forecast and limited cloud
coverage anticipated across east central Florida, sufficient
daytime heating is expected to occur, resulting in hot and humid
conditions. Afternoon highs climb into the low to mid 90s,
combining with humidity to produce peak heat indices of 103 to 110
today. A Heat Advisory has been issued for Lake, Orange, Osceola,
Okeechobee, Seminole, Volusia, and Brevard counties from 12 PM to
6 PM for peak heat indices of 108 to 110. Widespread Moderate
HeatRisk is forecast across east central Florida, with Major to
Extreme HeatRisk focused across the greater Orlando area. This
means that there is a greater risk of heat stress and heat-related
illnesses for those spending extended periods of time outdoors.
Residents and visitors alike are advised to remain well-hydrated,
take frequent breaks in the shade or air conditioning, dress
appropriately for the heat, and if possible, shift any outdoor
activities to cooler parts of the day. Check in on family and
neighbors who are particularly sensitive to the heat. Warm and
muggy conditions are forecast to continue overnight, with lows in
the low to mid 70s.

Monday-Saturday...The mid-level ridge is forecast to move
westward towards the Gulf, with the surface high following suit.
The ridge axis shifts south of the area into Monday as a result,
with a weakening boundary forecast to approach from the north and
stall Tuesday into Wednesday. This stalled boundary combined with
the moist air mass ahead of it will lead to increasing moisture
locally, with PWATs exceeding 2 inches Tuesday and beyond. Some
model guidance hints at a broad surface low developing along the
stalled boundary, moving westward towards the Gulf mid to late
week, followed by an area of high pressure building towards the
peninsula into next weekend. This set-up means a return of rain
and storm chances across east central Florida through the work
week. There still remains uncertainty beyond Tuesday relative to
just how much moisture will be present and the timing of any low
development, so stuck with the NBM and capped at 70 percent
through the period. The forecast calls for 40 to 60 percent PoPs
on Monday increasing to 50 to 70 percent Tuesday through Friday,
then decreasing into the weekend around 30 to 50 percent. There is
a 50 percent chance for storm development each day, with the
greatest chances focused during the afternoon and evening hours.
Storms will be capable of producing lightning strikes, gusty
winds, and heavy downpours that could lead to minor, localized
flooding in some spots. Activity is anticipated to diminish across
the peninsula into the overnight hours.

Hot and humid conditions are forecast to remain a concern for
east central Florida. Highs in the low to mid 90s on Monday do
drop slightly into the low 90s areawide Tuesday and beyond, but
peak heat indices are still forecast to exceed 100F each day.
Additional Heat Advisories may be needed, especially on Monday,
where there is greater confidence in reaching and exceeding
advisory criteria. Overall, this level of heat can impact anyone,
and both residents and visitors of east central Florida are
advised to take the proper precautions to prevent heat-related
illness. If spending extended periods of time outdoors, be sure to
remain well-hydrated, take frequent breaks in the shade or an air
conditioned building, wear lightweight, light-colored clothing,
and if possible, save outdoor activities for cooler times of day
like early morning or late evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

High pressure situated across the Atlantic will keep boating
conditions relatively favorable over the next several days. South
to southwesterly winds become more southeasterly each afternoon as
the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland, with wind
speeds of 10 to 15 knots. As a result, seas are expected to remain
generally between 1 to 3 feet over the next several days. The
Atlantic high will help keep convection at a minimum through today
(less than 20 percent), but the approach of a weakening boundary
from the north will cause increasing moisture locally, with a
return of shower and storm chances forecast through the work week
(50-70 percent). Any storms that develop across the local waters
may be capable of producing lightning strikes, gusty winds, and
heavy downpours that limit visibilities.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 643 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Light and variable winds this morning will become onshore this
afternoon behind the sea breeze, with the exception of LEE, which
will see the west coast sea breeze prevail at the site.
Regardless, winds are forecast to remain around 10 kts or less
through the period, becoming light and variable once again this
evening and overnight. Below normal coverage of showers and storms
will continue, though a few cells cannot be ruled out near
MCO/ISM/LEE/SFB from mid afternoon into the early evening.
Coverage is expected to be too low for tempos at this time.
Otherwise, dry and VFR conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  76  94  76 /  20  10  50  40
MCO  97  76  96  76 /  30  20  50  40
MLB  92  76  94  76 /  10  10  40  30
VRB  92  73  94  74 /  10  10  30  30
LEE  95  77  94  78 /  30  20  50  40
SFB  97  77  96  77 /  20  20  50  40
ORL  97  77  96  77 /  30  20  50  40
FPR  92  73  94  73 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for
     FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-247-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Leahy