424
FXUS62 KMLB 212339
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
739 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

- Rain and lightning storm chances increase early this week as a
  weakening front and high moisture approach from the north.

- Increased coverage of showers and storms will help limit peak
  heat indices after today.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

CURRENT-TONIGHT... A heat advisory continues areawide through 6
PM tonight. The southwesterly flow will keep the east coast sea
breeze pinned near the coast allowing for one more day of hot
temperatures and continued humid conditions. Max temperatures
should top out in the mid 90s (few upper 90s) areawide. Increasing
humidity will produce peak heat indices of 108-112 degrees this
afternoon. Remember to take extra precautions when outside. Wear
lightweight and loose fitting clothing. Know symptoms of heat
exhaustion and heat stroke.

High pressure breaks down and moves westward away from the local
area. Moisture values will begin to surge upward. Looking at
radar/satellite, we notice an outflow boundary sliding southeast
across the I-4 corridor. As it does, it appears to be stabilizing
the area it passes and will monitor if this area is able to
recover or not through late afternoon. Will watch if the
boundary`s eventual collision with the east coast sea breeze near
the coast enhances convection locally. Still some dry air aloft so
storm threats include gusty winds up to 50 mph and frequent
lightning strikes.

Any lingering convection is forecast to taper off through the
evening hours. Mainly drier conditions will prevail by around
midnight, though will have to remain vigilant for some early
morning convection (especially I-4 corridor) with the approach of
a weather disturbance. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s with
conditions humid.

TUE-THU... *Previous discussion slightly modified.* A weak front
is forecast to drop through the southeast U.S. Tuesday, before
stalling across north Florida into Wednesday. This feature and
associated disturbance aloft will nudge the mid-level ridge from
the northern Gulf into the Ark-La-Tex region. Models are in better
agreement that a weak low pressure system may form over the
northeastern Gulf mid-week with moisture surging into the central
Florida peninsula. Thus, have increased POPs slightly, trending
more towards the NBM, due to ample moisture (increasing PWATs to
2.3-2.5"), support from the nearby low and energy aloft. Scattered
to numerous showers and storms are forecast each afternoon and
into the evening hours. However, could see some convection develop
in the morning, particularly on Tuesday. POPs 60-80% through
Thursday, as the low moves westward away from the local area.
Locally heavy rainfall will be a concern, with portions of the
area highlighted within a marginal excessive rainfall outlook
Tuesday and Wednesday. Rainfall accumulations of 1-3" are
forecast, with a few locally higher amounts possible, particularly
along and north of I-4.

Increased coverage of clouds and storms will help to finally
provide some relief from the abnormally hot conditions. High
temperatures are forecast to be near normal in the lower 90s.
However, humid conditions will still lead to peak heat indices
between 100-105 degrees. Southwest flow Tuesday will limit the
inland progression of the sea breeze. Then, southerly winds will
develop Wednesday along the eastern periphery of the low, with
winds then becoming onshore Thursday as the low moves westward
into the Gulf. Overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s.

FRI-MON... *Previous extended discussion slightly modified.*
Ridging aloft just off of the Carolina coast builds westward into
early next week, with surface high pressure sliding south and
passing near the local area. Drier air looks to accompany this
feature, with PWATs dipping below 1.5". Combined with subsidence
near the high, this will help to lower shower and storm chances to
below normal once again by the weekend. After near normal POPs
between 40-60% on Friday, have generally 20-50% through Monday,
which may be generous. With less shower and storm coverage, peak
heat indices may creep up to near advisory criteria once again,
with high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s area-wide.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions continue outside of showers
and lightning storms. Surface high pressure`s influence over the
area diminishes as an unsettled weather pattern moves into the
area through mid-week. This will allow for a surge in moisture
with increasing shower/storm chances. Westerly winds early in the
period will become increasingly southerly, though will still see
winds become east-southeast/southeast along the coast each
afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops. Winds generally
15 kts or less through the period. High pressure builds back into
the area from the western Atlantic Friday and is expected to limit
shower and storm chances into the weekend. Seas mainly 1-3 ft, but
winds/seas locally higher in the vicinity of storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Transitioning into a more active convective pattern through
midweek as a disturbance moves overhead. Overnight, any showers
diminish with light/vrb winds. Then on Tuesday, expect increasing
coverage of showers/storms - first over the Greater Orlando area
from midday before increasing along the coast in the afternoon.
Attempted to time it out with TEMPOs but this is subject to
adjustments. Sea breeze should only get to MLB/VRB/FPR/SUA in the
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  90  75  88 /  60  80  60  80
MCO  76  90  75  89 /  50  80  60  80
MLB  77  90  75  89 /  40  80  60  70
VRB  75  90  72  90 /  30  80  50  70
LEE  77  90  76  88 /  50  80  70  80
SFB  77  91  75  90 /  60  80  70  80
ORL  77  90  75  90 /  60  80  70  80
FPR  74  90  72  90 /  30  80  50  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Heil