742
FXUS62 KMLB 230533
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1233 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 228 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

- Below normal temperatures linger tonight through Saturday
  night, with a gradual warming trend forecast Sunday and into
  next week.

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue through tonight.

- Remaining dry over the next several days, with fire sensitive
  conditions remaining in place through this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 919 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Noticeably cooler tonight as the west to northwest winds bring
colder temps to the area. Temperatures as of 9PM are ranging from
upper 40s to low 50s along the coast, and low to mid 50s across
the interior, with dew points in the low to mid 40s across east
central Florida. Breezy and gusty west to northwest winds earlier
this afternoon have diminished this evening to 5-10 mph which will
persist through the overnight hours. Dry conditions will prevail
tonight with no mentionable rain chances. Temperatures tonight
are forecast to be around 10-15 degrees below normal, with clear
skies. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s for most
locations, with upper 30s in the traditionally cooler locations
across northern Lake and NW Volusia counties. Forecast remains on
track with no major changes.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Tonight-Sunday...Mid/upper level trough exits offshore the eastern
U.S. coast tonight, with sfc high pressure across the central U.S.
settling southeast and eventually across Florida Saturday night into
Sunday. Breezy W/NW winds this afternoon will diminish to around 5
to 10 mph past sunset, and will continue to transport colder temps
into central FL tonight. Temps will be even lower tonight than last
night, with lows forecast to be around 10-15 degrees below normal.
Min temps will be in the low to mid 40s for most locations, and may
even see some upper 30s across normally colder locations NW of I-4,
mainly across northern Lake and NW Volusia counties. Wind chill
values will be as low as the mid to upper 30s around daybreak
Saturday morning.

The significantly drier airmass in place will keep skies sunny into
Saturday, with highs once again only reaching the mid to upper 60s.
N/NW winds will not be as gusty with speeds around 10 mph into the
afternoon. Then as high pressure settles in Saturday night, winds
become light and variable, with dry conditions continuing and skies
remaining clear. This will lead to favorable radiational cooling
conditions and allow temps to fall quickly back into the 40s
Saturday night. Winds remain pretty light into Sunday, and we will
begin to see a warming trend take hold. Highs will be still be just
a few degrees below normal on Sunday, but warmer than Saturday, in
the low to mid 70s. Lows Sunday night will also be closer to normal
in the 50s for most locations, except mid to upper 40s NW of I-4.

Monday-Friday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Mainly zonal flow
aloft continues through the upcoming work-week. Weak high pressure a
mainstay across the area, until the next formidable front forecast
to push into central FL late Fri afternoon-Fri night. We continue to
keep conditions dry thru the period. The warming trend started on
Sun will continue with U70s to around 80F (M70s Volusia coast Mon)
for Mon-Wed and low 80s on Thanksgiving Day. Temps may then drop
again into Friday depending on timing of frontal passage. Mins in
the 50s for much of the interior with some L60s gradually returning
E of I-95 and possibly M-U60s by Thu morning for immediate St.
Lucie/Martin counties. Generally light winds thru the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Tonight...Wind speeds will diminish slightly but still remain
elevated out of the NW up to 15-20 knots into tonight, with seas up
to 6 to 7 feet offshore. Nearshore, seas will be around 3-5 feet.
The Small Craft Advisory will continue over the offshore waters
through late tonight, but will be allowed to end at 4 PM this
afternoon nearshore. However, small craft should still exercise
caution over these waters through this evening.

Sat-Tue...(Previous Discussion) High pressure builds into the area
through the extended with continued dry conditions and much lighter
winds as the pressure gradient relaxes. Poor conditions (4-6 ft
seas) initially in the Gulf Stream early on Sat, with seas
continuing to subside thru the weekend and early next week with
generally favorable boating conditions. However, hazardous
conditions may develop near inlets during the outgoing tide sometime
on Sun and continuing into early next week as an increasing (ENE/NE)
long period swell (12-14 seconds) is forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1231 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

VFR conditions prevailing. NNW winds less than 10kts Saturday
become light an variable overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  42  74  51 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  67  44  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  68  47  74  58 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  69  46  76  58 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  67  44  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  67  44  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  68  46  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  68  45  76  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Watson
AVIATION...Leahy