853
FXUS62 KMLB 270655
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
155 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 155 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

- Much colder air has returned to Florida. Prepare for early
  morning wind chills in the mid 20s to low 30s through Thursday.
  A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for many locations this
  morning and again on Wednesday morning. Residents and visitors
  should wear appropriate winter clothing and protect their pets
  from the cold.

- The greatest risk for freezing temperatures is over outlying
  communities and rural locations through Thursday morning. A
  Freeze Warning expands to include Greater Orlando, Osceola
  County, and points northward early Wednesday morning. A Freeze
  Watch encompasses the same area, plus Okeechobee County, on
  Thursday morning. Consider covering tender plants or bringing
  them inside, if possible.

- Confidence continues to grow that a significant, rare cold air
  outbreak and major freeze threatens east Central Florida this
  weekend. The most likely forecast is for low temperatures in the
  20s and wind chills in the teens for much of the area by Sunday
  morning.

- Hazardous boating conditions persist today, improving by
  tonight. There is a high risk of life-threatening rip currents
  at all Atlantic beaches of Central Florida today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

In tandem with a shortwave trough over the Carolinas, a strong
surface cold front has moved well east of Florida early this
morning. Behind it comes a 1040 hPa continental high-pressure
center, currently over Louisiana. According to RAP mesoanalysis,
3-hourly pressure tendencies of around +6 hPa are occurring over
the Florida Peninsula. The Kennedy Space Center 915 MHz profiler
indicates that boundary-layer northwesterly winds of 30 to 40 knots
are occurring just off the surface. Strong cold advection is well
underway, as H85 (5kft) T`s are forecast to drop to around +1 to
+4 deg C by daybreak.

Courtesy of continued high-latitude blocking (-AO/-NAO), the polar
vortex remains displaced near James Bay, Canada. Through the
next 72 hours, it is forecast to elongate as it moves slightly
southward, extending from the Great Lakes to Atlantic Canada by
early Friday. In the broad northwesterly flow beneath this feature,
a ripple of Pacific energy will quickly pass from near Idaho this
morning to over Florida late Wednesday. This should act to reinforce
the colder temperature anomalies over the Southeast U.S. through
the work week, with essentially neutral thermal advection through
Thursday. As the mid-level flow becomes WSW on Friday, some
slight warming is expected.

By late Friday, the 26/12Z ensemble suite places the western extent
of the polar vortex near Chicago. Weak speed maxes in the Polar
(mid-latitude) jet immediately to its south, in concert with the
sharpening ridge over the West, should act to pull the Arctic jet
southward into the Lower Mississippi Valley by early Saturday. As
it approaches the Southeast U.S., a preponderance of members
now phase the Arctic jet with a strengthening segment of the
subtropical jet over the Gulf. By Sunday morning, ensemble means
place a highly-anomalous H5 low and deepening surface reflection
along the East Coast of the United States. Cluster analysis for the
synoptic guidance continues to show moderate spread in timing and
positioning of the invigorated trough, but at this time a majority
of members support this general evolution.

If current trends hold, the surface low associated with
the developing nor`easter should pass over Florida early on
Saturday. For a brief time, total moisture values (PWs) reach
100-125% of normal. As the low rapidly deepens while exiting
the state, another Arctic surface high should drop into the
Southern Plains, producing a strong pressure gradient over the
Southeast. This is likely to result in another surge of cold
air advection into Florida. NAEFS H85 temperatures tumble to a
median of -4 deg C by Sunday morning, which are values near or
outside the 30-year CFSR model climate for the date. ECMWF-EFIs
for both MaxT and MinT are below -0.9 with some shift of tails,
which is indicative of a very unusual or extreme event relative
to its model climate.

Surface high pressure drifts over Florida early next week as H5
heights build closer to normal by around next Tuesday. Negative
temperature anomalies should persist until at least the middle of
next week, as only slow moderation occurs.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Friday...

Temperatures will continue to be the biggest impact, particularly
in the overnight and morning hours. The coldest conditions for
the work week are expected through Thursday morning, with some
moderation on Friday.

After blowing in some bitter wind chills this morning, wind
gusts will slacken today. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in
place through 9 am for all of the interior as well as
inland/northern Brevard, inland Indian River, and all of Volusia
County. Over this area, wind chills will generally range in the
mid-upper 20s this morning. An additional Cold Weather Advisory
was required for early Wednesday morning. Similar wind chills can
be anticipated within the advisory area, which expands to include
all of mainland Brevard County.

A Freeze Warning continues through 9 am for Lake and inland Volusia
Counties. The Freeze Warning expands tonight, encompassing Volusia
and all interior counties except Okeechobee. A new Freeze Watch has
been posted for Wednesday night for the same locales, plus
Okeechobee County. Within the Freeze Watch area, there is a
greater than 50% chance of a freeze occurring for more than two
hours. On both nights, the greatest freeze probabilities (60-80%)
are outside of the Orlando bypass, in outlying and exurban
communities of interior Central Florida. Patchy frost may form
over rural areas Tuesday night. Somewhat higher frost coverage is
expected on Wednesday morning as moisture increases very slightly.

Despite sunshine, afternoon high temps will be much colder today,
some 10-20 degrees below normal (upper 50s-low 60s). Highs remain
8-12 degrees below normal through Thursday, before briefly
rebounding to within around 5 degrees of normal on Friday (65-70
deg F).

Additional information on cold weather, including probabilities,
trends, and durations of specific temperatures, can be found at
weather.gov/mlb/coldsupport.

Weekend - Early Next Week...

Confidence is increasing that a nor`easter will form off the
Southeast U.S. coast on Saturday. In its wake, the Arctic air mass
now sitting across much of the Eastern U.S. will be driven southward
on northwesterly winds. In short, guidance seems insistent on a
textbook setup to deliver Central Florida a major cold air outbreak
and hard freeze beginning Saturday night, lasting through early
next week. The potential impacts below are based on the latest
forecast. There is still some spread in the guidance, so these
impacts may change. Please stay up to date over the coming days as
we fine-tune the details.

First, as surface low pressure begins to develop over the state,
there is a 30-50% chance of rain showers on Friday night into early
Saturday. The timing may shift a bit, but amounts look relatively
light (chance of > 0.5" is less than 10%). Winds increase Saturday
afternoon and remain gusty out of the northwest through Saturday
night into Sunday. By Sunday morning, statistical guidance has
trended much colder, in line with model trends. The most likely
outcome is now for low temperatures to dip into the mid-upper
20s over most of the district, save for the immediate Treasure
Coast barrier islands. This would rival the cold air outbreaks of
2010 for some spots.

The risk for a hard freeze (<= 27 deg F) has jumped to 40-60%
over much of the area early Sunday. Similarly cold temperatures
are projected next Monday morning as well. The bottom line here:
agricultural interests, zone-pushers, and gardeners should know
that the threat of a major freeze event has increased. Residents
will also need to consider the possibility of frozen pipes if
precautions are not taken.

The other societal hazard will be extremely cold wind chills for
Central Florida standards. Our deterministic guidance shows
widespread wind chills in the teens on Sunday morning, and in the
upper teens to low 20s on Monday morning. Highs on Sunday will
likely not make it out of the 40s over all but the Treasure Coast
(50s). Those most vulnerable, such as the unhoused or those
without adequate heating, will be impacted most by this rare cold
outbreak.

Temperatures are to remain well below normal while slowly moderating
through next Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 155 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

A cold front has exited the waters as high pressure nudges in
from the west. Gale-force wind gusts will diminish this morning,
and winds will continue to slacken through the day. Hazardous seas
will linger, with the slowest improvement over the Gulf Stream by
tonight. High pressure then persists near Florida through Friday,
though a brief period of poor boating conditions may occur offshore
late Wednesday. Attention turns to a potential nor`easter as it
develops while moving away from Florida this weekend. Should this
occur, dangerous boating conditions would return by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1240 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Gusty N/NW winds in the
presence of strong cold advection will persist overnight,
decreasing toward daybreak but gusts remaining near 20
knots esp coastal terminals. Pressure gradient will gradually
loosen during Tuesday allowing the north winds and gusts to
decrease during the afternoon at 7-10 knots at MCO/SFB/DAB.
Treasure coast terminals (VRB-SUA) will hold onto 10-14 knots
with some gusts up to 20-22 knots through much of the day
Tuesday finally decreasing by sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

In the wake of yesterday`s cold front, much drier air will drift
down the peninsula today. Combined with persistent northwest winds
of 7-12 mph, fire-sensitive conditions are expected, especially
west of Okeechobee to Daytona Beach, where RHs will dip to 15-30%
this afternoon. Very low afternoon RH values continue on Wednesday
and Thursday, generally from 20-30% over the interior and slightly
higher on the coast. Northwest winds around 10 mph are forecast
for Wednesday, shifting to the north at 5-10 mph on Thursday. Peak
dispersion ranges from fair to good the next two afternoons.

RHs remain in the 30-40% range for all but the Treasure Coast on
Friday, then jump well above thresholds on Saturday as moisture
briefly increases ahead of our next cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  51  32  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  54  33  60  36 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  57  39  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  60  40  64  36 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  53  32  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  54  33  60  35 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  54  33  60  37 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  60  39  64  34 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-
     044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-347-547.

     Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST
     Wednesday for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-347-
     547-647.

     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-044-144.

     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Wednesday for
     FLZ041-044>046-053-144.

     Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning
     for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-144.

     Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ550-552-555-570-
     572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST this
     afternoon for AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 8 PM EST this
     evening for AMZ555-570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 2 AM EST
     Wednesday for AMZ572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Kelly