858
FXUS62 KMLB 100549
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
149 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

- Near-normal to slightly above-normal temperatures and humidity
  persist each afternoon. With peak heat index values of 100-106F,
  visitors and residents will need to stay hydrated and seek
  breaks in the shade or A/C.

- Scattered storms remain in the forecast each day, but overall
  coverage may increase next week as a slow-moving disturbance
  approaches the state.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Showers and storms are winding down this evening. The KMLB radar
currently shows isolated showers across southern Lake and
northwest Osceola counties. This activity will continue to
diminish over the next hour or two. Have decreased the overall
rain and storm chances to 20-30 percent through midnight to
account for current conditions and trends. Mostly dry conditions
expected overnight, with temperatures in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Currently...GOES satellite imagery shows PWATs around 1.6-1.8"
across East Central Florida, right around normal for the time of
year, but dry air in the low-mid levels, apparent in this
morning`s soundings, continues to suppress convection. That said,
we are seeing more life than this time yesterday, and even very
quick pulses of convection have been able to produce some
lightning. Convection is developing a little slower across the
northern half of the area due to a residual cool air pool from
storms that formed near the nature coast in the morning (though
the boundary could be good focus for new storms), and high clouds
slowing daytime heating a bit. This is compared to North and South
Florida, where higher moisture has supported some decent
lightning storms in the early afternoon.

Rest of Today-Tonight...Weak, stacked high pressure with a
surface ridge axis tenuously extending to Central Florida will
continue to produce light winds, until the sea breeze moves in and
shifts winds onshore. Showers and lightning storms remain mainly
isolated as the sea breezes move inland through the rest of the
afternoon (chances 20-40%), with the highest coverage and majority
of storms along the collision over the interior in the evening
(chances 40-60%). Once again, plenty of instability but dry air
entrainment in the low-mid levels will continue to be a hurdle for
deep convection. That said, a few stronger storms will be
possible where boundaries find pockets of higher low-level
moisture, capable of wind gusts to 45 mph, frequent cloud to
ground lightning, and torrential downpours. Afternoon highs near
normal in the U80s-L90s, which combined with humidity will result
in peak afternoon heat indices in the U90s-M100s, leading to
Moderate HeatRisk impacts across much of the area.

Thursday-The Weekend...(Modified Previous Discussion) Surface
high pressure slips a little farther south on Thursday and Friday,
however, prevailing light winds will allow sea breeze formation
each day. The focus of showers and storms looks a little closer to
the coast and across South Central Florida on Thursday and
Friday, as models continue to indicate somewhat drier air closer
to the I-4 corridor.

This weekend, the surface ridge axis is forecast to return
northward toward Central Florida. Seasonable coverage of afternoon
and evening storms, mainly focused over the interior, can be
expected as moisture across increases a bit.

Quick heating in the morning and early afternoon will allow heat
indices to bounce up to as high as 106 deg F. Those working or
playing outdoors should know the signs of heat illness and never
leave children or pets in unattended vehicles.

Early Next Week...(Modified Previous Discussion) Could finally see
a change in the pattern, depending on the development of mid-level
disturbances approaching from the Atlantic, weakening the surface
high and increasing moisture. This should introduce higher
coverage of showers and storms across Central Florida. This
unsettled setup may last well into next week. Temperatures remain
near normal.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions. The Atlantic high remains
in control of local conditions, as the ridge axis shifts from over
Central Florida and the adjacent Atlantic waters today south
toward South Florida late in the work week. The ridge axis then
shifts back towards Central Florida this weekend. Despite
movement of the ridge axis, a loose pressure gradient will result
in mainly light southerly winds, shifting southeasterly and
increasing a bit to around 10 kts in the afternoon with the sea
breeze, then easing and shifting southwesterly towards morning
with the land breeze. While stronger storms should mostly remain
inland, a few showers and storms are in the forecast for the
Atlantic waters, particularly in the overnight and morning hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 149 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

VFR outside of convection. Dry overnight with light and variable
winds. Light southwest winds become established after sunrise,
shifting south to southeast behind the afternoon sea breeze. VCTS
at all terminals generally after 18/19Z. Coverage of showers and
storms linger across the interior through 01Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  75  92  75 /  30  30  40  20
MCO  94  76  94  76 /  50  30  60  20
MLB  91  76  90  76 /  40  20  50  10
VRB  92  75  91  75 /  40  20  50  10
LEE  92  76  93  76 /  40  20  50  20
SFB  94  77  94  77 /  40  30  50  20
ORL  94  77  94  77 /  40  30  60  20
FPR  91  75  90  74 /  40  20  50  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Watson
AVIATION...Law