777
FXUS62 KMLB 181405
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1005 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

The surface high will stay anchored across the eastern U.S. today,
with dry but breezy conditions forecast locally. Northeast winds
15 to 20 mph with gusts of 30 to 35 mph forecast. The higher
gusts will remain mostly concentrated along the coast. Partly
cloudy skies are expected through the day, with temperatures
reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. Some CAM guidance is hinting at
the potential for isolated onshore-moving showers, but with the
drier airmass (measured 0.71" PWAT from 10Z XMR sounding), was
not confident enough to add in any sort of mention of showers. The
forecast remains on track across east central Florida.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 515 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Key Messages:

- Long fetch of onshore flow will bring hazardous conditions to
  the Atlantic waters, the surf zone and the coast through the
  weekend.

- Minor coastal flooding is possible particularly during times of
  high tide, through at least Sunday morning.

Today-Sat...Surface high pressure will remain over the eastern US
and keep a stout E/NE flow over the area. Considerable marine
stratocu will push onshore from the Atlc, pancaking beneath a
strong subsidence inversion today. Initially, this moisture layer
is thin with dry air above and below so most areas will remain dry
today. However, gradual moistening will occur in the low levels
beneath the inversion tonight/Sat with a better chance for passing
sprinkles or even a brief shower. The pressure gradient will
support breezy/gusty conditions again today and model guidance
shows a tightening of the pressure gradient this eve/tonight. This
will bring windy conds to the coastal communities with 20-25 mph
gusting 30-35 mph. At this time it looks to stay below wind
advisory criteria but it will be unusually windy after sunset.

Max temps will be around 80 today and a degree or two warmer Sat
after a milder night tonight with lows holding in the mid 60s
interior and low to mid 70s coast.

The persistent onshore flow combined with continued astronomical
high tides this weekend may cause minor tidal flooding mainly
during the times of high tide, especially the morning high tides
through Sunday morning. That is the reason for the Coastal Flood
Advisory. Rough surf and incoming swell will produce a HIGH risk
of rip currents in the surf zone through Sunday. Finally, after
collaborating with NWS Miami, a High Surf Advisory has been issued
for our Treasure coast counties beginning late this afternoon
into Sat afternoon. The increase in winds by this evening looks
most pronounced across southern sections and the wave model brings
breaking surf of 7 ft to the Treasure coast. This could
accentuate the coastal flooding concern there during high tide
this evening around 9 pm and again around 10 am Sat.

Sun-Thu...High pressure over the eastern US will remain nearly
stationary while gradually weakening. The NE wind flow will
persist but gradually decrease into next week. Both the GFS and
ECMWF continue to show low level moisture increasing this weekend
and early next week which should bring a better chance for
onshore-moving showers. The focus will be primarily along the
coast Sun-Mon but several showers should make it into the
interior before dissipating. A slight warming trend will occur
with lower 80s this weekend reaching mid 80s interior next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

VFR conditions prevailing. Breezy to windy northeast winds around
15kts today, with gusts around 25kts. Winds will diminish towards
sunset over the interior, but remain elevated along the coast
overnight. SCT/BKN045-050 CIGs are forecast, with some SCT030
possible this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 515 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

An area of high pressure will remain situated across the eastern
U.S. through this weekend and into early next week, leading to
prevailing northeast to east winds for an extended period of time
across the local Atlantic waters. Wind speeds 15 to 25 knots,
with gusts up to 30 knots. This long fetch of E/NE flow will
allow seas to build tonight through the weekend, reaching 6 to 9
feet across the local Atlantic waters. Winds are forecast to begin
weakening slightly early next week, but poor to hazardous boating
conds will continue through Tue.

A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the nearshore
Treasure Coast waters and all the offshore waters through Sunday.
Winds and seas have temporarily subsided slightly across the
nearshore Volusia and Brevard waters but conditions remain poor,
so small craft should exercise caution there through mid day
today. But winds and seas are forecast to increase this afternoon
across all the local Atlc waters so nearshore Volusia and Brevard
waters will be placed back into a Small Craft Advisory at 4 PM
today. The advisory will then continue across all local Atlantic
waters through at least Sunday night. The SCA will likely need to
be extended into next week especially for the offshore waters/Gulf
Stream.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  69  81  70 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  80  69  81  69 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  80  72  81  72 /   0  10   0   0
VRB  81  72  83  72 /   0  10   0   0
LEE  80  65  81  67 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  79  67  81  68 /   0  10   0  10
ORL  80  68  82  69 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  80  72  82  71 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159-
     164-347-447-647-747.

     High Surf Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT Saturday
     for FLZ154-159-164.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Sunday
     for AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ555-570-572-
     575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Leahy