852
FXUS62 KMLB 301146
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
646 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 251 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

- Wind chill values are forecast to reach the mid-20s to mid-30s
overnight tonight into early Wednesday morning. A Cold Weather
Advisory has been issued for all but coastal Martin County.

- A Freeze Watch remains in effect for Lake and Inland Volusia
counties for late tonight into Wednesday morning, as  temperatures
fall to near freezing in that area.

- Hazardous boating conditions today, especially over the Gulf
  Stream.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

Today-Wednesday...A mostly dry, but potent, cold front continues
southward through central Florida prior to sunrise this morning.
Temperatures ahead of the front remain in the mid-60s as of around
2AM, while northern portions in the area have fallen into the lower
50s. Colder, drier air will continue to spread southward through the
forecast area over the next several hours, with the front expected
to move into south Florida early this morning.

Today, much below normal temperatures are forecast, with highs only
reaching the upper 50s to near 60 along and north of I-4. To the
south, areas look to remain in the lower to mid-60s. These
temperatures are around 9-12 degrees below normal for late December.
Breezy northwesterly winds of 8-12 mph, with gusts to around 20 mph
at times, will make daytime temperatures feel a couple of degrees
even cooler this afternoon. It will be dry, as PWATs fall below
0.5", though scattered mid to upper level clouds will linger.
Forecast PWATs are expected to be around the 10th percentile or less
for the date based on XMR sounding climatology.

Tonight, clearing skies and dew points in the upper teens to lower
20s will provide good conditions for temperatures to plummet after
sunset. Wednesday morning low temperatures are forecast to fall into
the 30s for nearly all of east central Florida. The coldest spots
are expected to dip to near freezing, namely across Lake and inland
Volusia Counties. Have maintained the Freeze Watch for now, as
forecast temperatures remain near 32 degrees and confidence on
whether freezing temperatures will persist for 2+ hours is not quite
high enough. Regardless, HREF continues to suggest a 20-50% (or
locally higher) probability of at least briefly reaching 32 degrees
or less in the Freeze Watch area.
In addition, northwest winds 5-10 mph overnight will create wind
chill values in the upper 20s to lower 30s across nearly all of the
forecast area. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for all but
coastal Martin County, where wind chills look to remain in the mid-
30s. Wind chills this cold could be hazardous for those without
access to adequate warmth, clothing, or shelter.

Dry conditions and below normal temperatures will continue into
Wednesday, as PWATs remain near record low levels for the date.
Highs will once again struggle to reach 60 degrees along and north
of I-4, with the lower to mid-60s forecast for southern areas.
Temperatures moderate somewhat Wednesday night, as dew points creep
into the lower 30s and winds slacken. However, overnight lows in the
mid to upper 30s remain forecast for much of the area and wind
chills in the lower 30s will continue. While conditions at this time
look to preclude the need for any freeze products, patchy frost has
been added to the forecast for rural interior locations. Will also
need to monitor the need additional Cold Weather Advisories, though
current forecast wind chills remain near to just above criteria.

Thursday-Friday...The new year begins with high pressure over the
Gulf building eastward through late week. Meanwhile, zonal flow
builds in aloft Friday behind an upper level trough passing through
Thursday. No precipitation remains forecast, with dry air lingering
over the Florida peninsula. Lighter winds will back westerly into
Friday, with a warming trend beginning. Highs in the mid to upper
60s Thursday will become nearer to normal on Friday in the upper 60s
to lower 70s. Overnight lows will also warm through the period,
remaining in the mid-40s to lower 50s by Friday night.

Saturday-Monday...Yet another cold front is forecast to move through
the Florida peninsula this weekend, as an upper level trough moves
through the area. Rain chances return, with isolated to scattered
showers possible Saturday into Saturday night. PoPs currently 20-
30%, mainly across northern portions of the area.
Drier conditions return late weekend and into early next week,
though ambient air is not expected to be as dry as around the New
Year`s holiday. Near to slightly above normal temperatures are
forecast during the daytime hours, as highs reach the mid to upper
70s, while overnight lows remain in the 50s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

Today-Wednesday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions today behind
a cold front. North-northwesterly winds up to 20-25 kts this morning
will diminish somewhat into the afternoon, but remain up to 15-20
kts into this evening before becoming 10-15 kts Wednesday. Seas 6-9
ft early today will be highest in the Gulf Stream and remain up to 4-
6 ft in that area into Wednesday afternoon. Small Craft Advisories
are in effect for all of the local Atlantic waters. While they are
expected to expire from north to south this afternoon and into this
evening, they have been extended through much of tonight for the
Gulf Stream south of the Cape.

Thursday-Saturday...Improved boating conditions through late week,
as high pressure moves eastward from the Gulf and across the Florida
peninsula. Northwest winds early in the period back southwesterly
into the weekend. Winds generally around 15 kts or less, but could
see boating conditions deteriorate once again later in the weekend
behind yet another cold front. Seas lingering up to 5 ft in the Gulf
Stream on Thursday, otherwise seas 2-4 ft.
Dry conditions through late week, then increasing chances for
showers Saturday into Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 646 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

A cold front has passed south of Lake Okeechobee this morning, and
MVFR CIGs continue to steadily clear along the Treasure Coast.
North-northwest winds around 8-12 kts are forecast behind the
front, with occasional gusts up to 20 kts. Winds diminish to
around 5-8 kts this evening and into the overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 251 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

Breezy and dry conditions behind a cold front will lead to
heightened fire weather sensitivity today. Northwest winds 8-12
mph are forecast this afternoon, as min RH falls to the upper 20s
to lower 30s over the interior. Fortunately, the highest winds are
expected along the coast, where min RH looks to remain in the
35-45% range. Winds are forecast to slacken through mid to late
week, though min RH near 25-30% is expected area-wide Wednesday.
Will see conditions begin to improve Thursday, though dry
conditions will continue with min RH as low as 30-35% across
portions of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  58  34  59  38 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  60  38  59  41 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  62  36  62  40 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  64  36  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  58  33  58  38 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  59  35  60  38 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  60  37  59  41 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  65  35  63  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ041-
     044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-
     647-747.

     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
     FLZ041-044-144.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ550-
     552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ555-572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ570.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Law