281
FXUS62 KMLB 251847
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
147 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 147 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

- Near-record warmth today. Don`t let the seemingly mild
  conditions fool you, there is a High Risk of rip currents at the
  beaches!

- A prolonged period of cold, dry weather begins Monday night. A
  Freeze Watch is in effect for Lake and inland Volusia Counties
  into Tuesday morning. Cold Weather Advisories, likely!

- Breezy/gusty conditions this afternoon and again Monday and
  Monday night. Deteriorating boating conditions across the local
  coastal waters.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Current-Tonight...Dense fog and low stratus slow to clear this
morning, esp along/north of I-4. Increasing S/SSW flow have aided to
finally mix out the grunge from earlier. Through the day, low
pressure across the Deep South will steadily track eastward. The
pressure gradient tightens with aforementioned winds increasing
to 15-20 mph and gusts to 25-30 mph this afternoon. SSW winds
decrease, but still remain elevated a bit, at 5-10 mph/10mph this
evening and overnight. Expect a very warm pre-frontal day with
temperatures soaring into the 80s areawide. May be close to a few
records. Please see the Climate section below. Mainly dry
conditions continue into the evening, except for very ISOLD
(~10pct) light shower potential across the local coastal waters.

Beach conditions will be dangerous, with a High Risk of numerous,
strong, life-threatening rip currents. Entering the chilly water
remains strongly discouraged.

The low pressure system continues to head E/NE and will move off of
the mid-Atlc coast tonight. This will act to drag a strong cold into
the FL Panhandle this evening and into portions of north Lake/north
Volusia by sunrise Mon morning. ISOLD to SCT (20-40pct) shower
activity is forecast after midnight north of a Titusville-
Kenansville line thru daybreak Mon. Elevated wind flow and
increasing clouds will keep overnight temps mild with conditions
muggy. Forecast min values in the 60s areawide.

As for fog formation overnight into early Mon morning, 925mb winds
range from 20-30 kts off the deck (lowest across Martin County).
This would suggest more of stratus (low cloud) formation Vs fog,
so presently will leave absent for now. Future shifts can take
another look if they wish to add some patchy mention across the
Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County.

Mon-Mon Night...The strong front will continue to plow thru ECFL
during the morning and early afternoon (Treasure Coast). ISOLD-SCT
(20-40pct)  precip chances continue areawide with rainfall amounts
mostly light. The trend will be for decreasing PoP chances from
north to south during the day. Lightning storm activity is not
forecast at this time. Mainly cloudy skies early in the day with
gradually improving conditions (north-south) thru the aftn. Cooler,
drier air will advect southward behind the front with gradually
falling temps further into the day. Breezy W/NW winds will follow.
A range of highs for this day will be L70s north of I-4 with
M-U70s southward, perhaps a few 80 degree readings near Vero Beach
south. L80s for much of Martin County. Dewpoints in the M-U60s at
the start of the period will bottom out into the 40s by early
evening, further tanking into the teens/20s to L30s for most Mon
night.

Much colder air will barrel down the peninsula with a vengeance Mon
night. A Freeze Watch currently is in place for Mon overnight for
Lake and interior Volusia counties. A Cold Weather Advisory is
likely necessary for much of the area Mon overnight as well. Temps
within the Freeze Watch may dip down into the U20s to L30s for a few
hours, while M-U30s extend southward to near Lake Okee and coastal
Volusia and interior reaches of Brevard and western Indian River
counties. Elsewhere, temps range from the L-M40s along the
Brevard/Indian River coasts and interior Treasure Coast counties,
with U40s to L50s closer towards the St. Lucie/Martin coasts.
Lowest wind chill values Mon overnight into early Tue morning will
see widespread 20s and L30s across the entirety of the interior,
Volusia & Space coasts, and M-U30s for interior Treasure Coast
counties, save for near 40F to U40s for much of the immediate
Treasure Coast. All of this as breezy NW winds continue 15-20 mph
with frequent higher gusts!

Tue-Sun...Previous Modified...Surface high pressure builds eastward
across the northern Gulf Coast thru mid-week. This will keep
northerly winds through the period, which may be breezy at times,
especially along the coast. A reinforcing, dry cold front is
forecast on Thu, prolonging the elevated northerly flow. Mainly dry
conditions prevail, as PWATs generally remain 0.6" or less thru at
least Sat. The main focus will be the abnormally persistent pattern
of well below normal temperatures. High temperatures in the 50s to
M60s (few U60s far south) are forecast thru the work-week and quite
possibly into the weekend, ranging from as much as 10-15 degrees
below normal each day. Overnight lows in the 30s and L40s will also
continue, so will need to continue to monitor the threat for
freezing temperatures in the normally colder spots, as well as
lowest wind chills/apparent temps below 30 degrees. Expect to see
continued cold weather headlines through the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 147 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Poor to hazardous boating conditions exist, as S/SSW winds increase
ahead of an approaching strong cold front and swell builds. Wind
speeds 15-20 kts will increase to 20-25 kts offshore north of
Sebastian Inlet tonight. Seas building 3-6 ft near shore and 6-7 ft
in the Gulf Stream. Small craft should Exercise Caution over the
near shore waters into early evening, with a Small Craft Advisory
offshore.

Conditions will remain unfavorable through much of the upcoming
week. A cold front will move through the local waters Mon, veering
winds northwesterly and increasing to 20-30 kts by Mon night. Seas
respond accordingly, building to 8-12 ft in the Gulf Stream and 6-8
ft near shore. Scattered showers will accompany the front and cannot
rule out a lightning strike or two, mainly over the Gulf Stream.
While winds will slacken to 15-20 kts Tue and 15 kts or less Wed,
seas will be slow to subside and remain poor to hazardous for
portions of the waters into Wed morning. By Thu, a reinforcing,
dry cold front will deteriorate conditions once again. After Mon
afternoon, no precipitation is forecast through late work-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1242 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Mainly VFR but breezy/gusty through the rest of the day, and
winds could shift abruptly at coastal terminals this afternoon
and evening. A SCT020-030 cu field across ECFL that has been BKN
at times, enough to warrant a few TEMPOs for MVFR CIGs, should
gradually lift above 030 in the next few hours. Southerly winds
around 15 kts with gusts to 25 kts this afternoon (up to around a
5 kt crosswind at KMCO). A sea breeze has developed, but the
stout offshore flow is keeping it pinned near or just offshore the
coast, causing winds at coastal terminals to periodically shift
southeasterly while remaining breezy/gusty. Winds settle to
southwesterly at around 10 kts after 00Z.

A cold front will push through ECFL Monday. Ahead of the front
tonight and Monday morning, MVFR-IFR CIGs are expected to
gradually overspread ECFL from the north and west after 006Z
(reaching KMCO around 09Z). There are low (20% or less) chances
for CIGs to drop to LIFR. Winds should be sufficient to keep VIS
VFR, but if CIGs drop to LIFR then VIS could tank as well. Pretty
good agreement from the 12Z guidance package conditions should
improve after 14Z, but MVFR impacts could persist into the late
morning and possibly early afternoon, especially at the southern
terminals. Isolated to scattered showers will also precede the
front between 09Z-19Z amongst the low CIGs, and any VIS impacts
should be brief. Winds shift northwesterly behind the front,
becoming breezy/gusty again.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 147 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Very warm temperatures as much as 15 degrees above normal this
afternoon, as highs rise into the M-U80s. Breezy/gusty SWRLY winds
15-20 mph will gust to 25-30 mph this afternoon, with no precip
expected. Min RH is forecast to remain above critical levels,
though Very Good to Excellent dispersion could cause containment
issues.

A strong cold front will pass through the local area Mon morning and
early afternoon, bringing isolated to scattered showers overnight
into early-mid Mon afternoon. Behind the front, a prolonged period
of elevated northerly winds and critical to near-critical minimum RH
will begin Tue and last through much of the work-week. Very
sensitive fire weather conditions will result, though there will be
days where the breezier winds do not coincide with the lowest RH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 147 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Forecast high temperatures compared to the daily and monthly
records for Sunday (today), January 25th.

     FCST  DAILY  MONTHLY
DAB   83    87      87
LEE   84    85      86
SFB   85    85      89
MCO   85    86      88
MLB   84    85      88
VRB   85    86      88
FPR   84    86      89

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  72  35  53 /  30  20   0   0
MCO  67  73  37  56 /  30  30   0   0
MLB  65  77  42  59 /  10  40   0   0
VRB  65  80  45  61 /   0  40   0   0
LEE  62  69  32  53 /  40  30   0   0
SFB  66  73  35  56 /  30  30   0   0
ORL  66  73  37  56 /  40  30   0   0
FPR  65  80  45  62 /   0  40   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for
     FLZ041-044-144.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ552-555-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Haley