748
FXUS62 KMLB 160601
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
201 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Rain and storm chances increase Thursday onward as moisture
  increases across east central Florida. The potential exists for
  isolated strong to marginally severe storms (< 5% chance)
  capable of frequent lightning, wind gusts to 40-60mph, and heavy
  rainfall.

- A 20% (low) chance of a tropical disturbance in the eastern
  Gulf tracking towards Florida Saturday and Sunday.

- Temperatures are forecast to remain near to slightly above
  normal this week through next week, with peak heat indices
  anticipated to increase into early next week.

- A Moderate Risk of rip currents is forecast at all east central
  Florida beaches today. Always swim near a lifeguard!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Currently-Tonight... Current KMLB radar imagery shows dry weather
across east central Florida. GOES-16 satellite imagery and local
observations indicate mostly clear skies across east central
Florida. Analysis charts show a mid/upper level high over the Gulf
with a mid level trough over the western Atlantic. Temperatures are
currently in the upper 80s to low 90s with dew points in the low to
upper 70s. Heat index values are in the upper 90s to around 104F
degrees.

Scattered east-southeast moving showers (30-50% chance) and
lightning storms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening
hours before showers and lightning storms diminish and push offshore
of the Treasure Coast by around 10PM. This morning`s 15Z XMR
sounding shows MUCAPE pf 2,433 J/kg, DCAPE at 594 J/kg 0-6km shear
at 11kts, a PWAT value of 1.71", and a 500mb temperature of -6C
which suggests that the potential for a strong to marginally severe
storm is low and isn`t high compared to previous days. Low
temperatures in the low to upper 70s are forecast with mostly clear
skies.

Thursday-Friday... Moisture is expected to increase areawide on
Thursday with PWAT values between 2.0"-2.5". Guidance shows
MLCAPE up to 1,500-3,000 J/kg, 0-6km shear up to 20-30kts enhanced
by the local sea breeze, as well as conditionally to absolutely
unstable lapse rates. Additionally, guidance shows PVA pivoting
across east central Florida during the afternoon and evening
hours which will enhance lift for strong to marginally severe
storms to develop. Scattered to numerous showers (30-70% chance)
and lightning storms are forecast to develop in the afternoon and
evening as collisions occur between sea breezes and outflow from
previous storms. A similar forecast is expected on Friday with
slightly higher probability of precipitation. The main hazards
will be frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 40-60 mph (< 5%
chance to 60mph), and heavy rainfall (1-3"+ in 30 to 60 minutes
with the potential to result in minor flooding of roadways and low
lying areas). Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with heat
index values between 100F-107F are forecast with lows in the low
to upper 70s. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk exists on Thursday. A
Major HeatRisk affects anyone without adequate cooling and
hydration.

Saturday-Tuesday (modified previous discussion)... Deterministic
guidance has gone back and forth on the potential development of
a tropical disturbance in the eastern Gulf and the state of
Florida Saturday into Sunday. Conditions will be favorable for
development if it occurs with the GFS and ECMWF showing relatively
low deep layer shear, as well as current SSTs at 30C+.
Additionally, the LREF ensembles are all in good agreement on a
pattern favorable for a tropical disturbance to develop in the
eastern Gulf. However, there is currently a 20% (low) chance of
development. Regardless, a trough is expected to remain in place
across the Florida peninsula through the weekend and into next
week. The surface high will respond by shifting southward with the
ridge axis forecast to stay south of central Florida through the
extended period. Persistent west to southwest flow is forecast
locally, resulting in moisture advection from the Gulf towards
east central Florida. Rain and storm chances are forecast to
remain high as a direct result with a return of scattered to
numerous shower and lightning storm coverage anticipated each
afternoon from Saturday through Tuesday. Convection will be
primarily driven by the west coast sea breeze pushing across the
peninsula, with the sea breeze collision favored across the
eastern peninsula each afternoon. Activity will then push
offshore, diminishing across the local Atlantic waters through the
overnight hours. In addition to showers and storms, the usual
Florida heat will persist, with near to slightly above normal
highs forecast in the low to mid 90s. Humid conditions will
support peak heat indices exceeding 100F areawide, with a low
chance of nearing Heat Advisory criteria in some spots through the
extended period. Will continue to closely monitor trends.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Currently-Sunday (previous discussion)... Generally favorable
boating conditions are forecast across the local Atlantic waters.
Broad surface high pressure will remain situated just south of the
local waters, allowing for persistent west to southwest flow
overnight and into the morning hours, with the east coast sea
breeze causing winds to become more southerly during the
afternoons. Wind speeds are forecast to remain below 15 knots
through the remainder of this week and into the weekend. Seas
remain between 1 to 3 feet.

Rain and storms will be possible each afternoon into the evening
and overnight hours as activity from the peninsula pushes
offshore. Coverage of showers and storms will increase Thursday
onward as moisture increases across the local Atlantic waters.
Storm hazards with convection will include cloud-to-water
lightning strikes, wind gusts in excess of 34 knots, brief heavy
downpours, and locally higher seas near convection.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period. Light
westerly winds will become west to west-northwest and increase to
5-10 KT by mid morning. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to
form this afternoon and push a little inland, turning the winds
onshore behind the sea breeze. Scattered showers and storms will
begin over the interior around 18-19Z before pushing eastward
towards the coast into late afternoon. Additional showers and
storms are forecast along the sea breeze collision, generally
east of Orlando and near to west of I-95. Any lingering activity
will dissipate or move out of the area by 01Z across the
interior, and 03Z along the coast. Have not included any TEMPOs at
this time due to some lingering uncertainty with timing and
placement of convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  75  91  75 /  60  10  40  20
MCO  94  77  93  75 /  50  20  70  30
MLB  92  77  91  76 /  50  10  60  20
VRB  93  75  92  74 /  30  10  60  20
LEE  92  77  92  76 /  50  30  70  40
SFB  93  77  93  76 /  60  20  70  30
ORL  93  77  92  76 /  60  20  70  30
FPR  93  75  92  74 /  30  10  60  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Watson