559
FXUS62 KMLB 051756
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1256 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 326 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

- Gradual warming into this weekend before becoming more
  seasonable/cooler early to mid next week.

- Next cold front will move through the area late Sunday into
  Monday.

- Dry conditions today, with increasing shower chances and
  isolated lightning storms returning this weekend along and ahead
  of that next cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Today-Tonight... Mid level high pressure holds in place across the
Caribbean islands, keeping mostly dry conditions in place locally.
At the surface, an area of weak low pressure becomes more organized
offshore the Georgia and Carolina coastline, lifting northeast
across the western Atlantic this afternoon. An attached surface
boundary becomes draped across north Florida, slowly sagging
southward as the low departs. Southwest flow becomes established
south of the boundary increasing to around 10-15 mph this afternoon.
A warming trend is expected with highs increasing into the low to
mid 80s.

Low level moisture builds southward this evening and overnight,
spreading over the I-4 corridor. A few models hint at isolated
shower activity developing after sunset, but confidence remains low
at this time due to a very shallow moisture column. However, cannot
rule out enough moisture to support patchy fog development near and
north of I-4 as winds become light and variable tonight. Morning
lows range the low to mid 60s.

Saturday-Monday... A sloppy synoptic pattern exists this weekend and
into early next week. The surface boundary across north Florida
slowly sags into central Florida, washing out as the aforementioned
area of low pressure continues to retreat across the western
Atlantic. A new area of low pressure loosely organizes along the
northern Gulf coast Sunday, shifting into the western Atlantic
Sunday night and further developing along the original washed out
frontal boundary. This area of low pressure will work to pull a cold
front more cleanly across central Florida late Sunday and into
Monday.

Scattered showers (30-50%) build southward along the original
frontal boundary into Saturday afternoon and Saturday night,
generally reaching areas of Osceola and Brevard counties. As of now,
global models hold drier conditions in place across the south on
Saturday, including much of Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast
counties. Rain chances then increase areawide Sunday afternoon and
Sunday night ahead of the reinforcing front, and the greatest rain
chances are forecast around 50-70 percent near and north of I-4.
Scattered showers are forecast to continue Sunday night before
drying from north to south into Monday. A conditional storm
environment will exist Sunday afternoon characterized by low
instability and moderate shear, and a low (20%) chance exists for a
lightning storm.

High temperatures in the low to mid 80s on Saturday become more
variable on Sunday, ranging the low to mid 70s across northern Lake
and Volusia while reaching the low 80s across Okeechobee and the
Treasure Coast. By Monday afternoon, highs fall to widely range the
70s. Lows mostly in the low to mid 60s this weekend are forecast
in the 50s early next week.

Tuesday-Thursday... High pressure builds across the eastern U.S.
Tuesday, establishing dry conditions locally. The area of high
pressure quickly retreats as low pressure moves across the Great
Lakes region and a coastal trough develops offshore the eastern U.S.
High temperatures hold below seasonal values Tuesday and Wednesday
ranging the upper 60s to mid 70s. A slight warm up is forecast
Thursday with highs mostly in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

A cold front settles across north Florida today, sagging towards
central Florida on Saturday. A reinforcing front will then push
across the local waters late Sunday and into Monday. Offshore winds
around 10-15 kts today diminish to around 10 kts Saturday. Winds
then become widely variable Saturday night into Sunday before
increasing out of the north around 15-20 kts behind the front on
Monday. Seas hold mostly 3-4 ft, occasionally 5 ft offshore, through
the weekend. Seas become poor to hazardous across the Gulf Stream
waters Monday into Monday night, building 5-7 ft. Dry today with
increasing showers and isolated storms forecast this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1255 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Breezy SW winds (gusts 15-25 kt) subside after 00z. Low stratus
is forecast to move in from the northwest after 03z-06z with some
fog forming after 06z. Confidence is low in FG impacting any one
of the terminals, though the 12z HREF indicates a 30-50% or
greater probability of IFR VIS, especially from ISM southward to
SUA. For now, maintained MVFR VIS reductions overnight with signal
for expanding stratus field. A quick -SHRA cannot be ruled out
03z-10z MLB northward, though not explicitly mentioned.

It will take time for stratus to erode on Sat., likely lingering
across northern/central terminals thru at least 15z. WSW winds
5-10 kt or less veer NW by the end of the TAF as a front pushes
south. VCSH be needed beyond 18z for southern sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  76  61  75 /  10  30  50  70
MCO  67  82  65  79 /  10  30  40  50
MLB  64  81  65  81 /   0  20  30  40
VRB  62  83  64  83 /   0  10  20  30
LEE  65  78  61  75 /  20  30  60  70
SFB  65  80  63  77 /  10  30  40  60
ORL  66  80  64  78 /  10  30  40  60
FPR  62  83  63  83 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Schaper