772
FXUS62 KMLB 071150
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
650 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 310 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

- A cold front will oscillate northward today before pressing
  south of the area Monday. Coverage of showers and isolated
  storms will increase with periods of moderate to heavy rain.

- Hazardous boating conditions will develop behind the front
  Monday into Tuesday especially in the Gulf Stream.

- Turning noticeably cooler this week but no frost/freeze
  concerns at this time. A stronger cold front may swing through
  next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Early This Morning... A weak cold front has prompted considerable
low stratus across much of east central Florida again this morning.
KMLB radar has shown light showers embedded within the stratus,
moving east-northeast near and north of the I-4 corridor. Models
suggest that most of this activity should diminish by sunrise,
while some lingering showers may still exist across the far north
including portions of Volusia and northern Lake counties. Ahead of
sunrise, cannot rule out stratus continuing to lower, causing
surface visibility reductions. Although confidence is not high,
fog remains in the forecast for areas south of where the light
showers are occurring.

Today-Monday... A weak low level ridge axis south of Florida and
near the Florida Straits will keep local winds out of south to
southwest today. This will help nudge the aforementioned frontal
boundary northward. A loose area of low pressure moves along the
front, passing the Florida peninsula before broadly organizing in
the western Atlantic late today. The front will then be pulled
southward across central Florida into Monday as the low retreats
northeastward across the Atlantic.

While there is some uncertainty in how far north the front may lift,
trends in CAMs suggest dry conditions setting in across most of east
central Florida for much of the morning. Have kept a 20-30% chance
for showers across Volusia and northern Lake counties into late
morning. Otherwise, rain chances gradually rebuild south and
eastward across the area through the afternoon and evening. The
highest rain chances look to settle in near or after sunset with
continued rounds of showers forecast overnight, especially from
Brevard/ Osceola northward (60-80%). Further south, rain chances are
currently forecast to remain more scattered. However, the 00Z HRRR
has become very aggressive in the spreading high rain chances
further south. This looks to be an outlier among deterministic CAM
guidance at this time, but trends may need to be monitored. By
tomorrow, isolated to scattered showers will gradually clear from
north to south as the front passes. Confidence continues to remain
low for lighting, keeping probabilities less than 20%. Cloud cover
sticks around for most of the day, mostly limiting surface heating
and instability. A better chance for clearing exists across the
south where a differential heating boundary could develop. A
marginally conditional storm environment may exist near this
boundary, dominantly driven by southwest flow and moderate shear.
Even in the absence of storms, showers will still be capable of
rounds of heavy rainfall. Rainfall averages of 1-2" will be possible
through Monday from Orlando and the Cape northward, and localized
higher totals up to 4" cannot be ruled out.

The position of the front and increased cloud cover will make for a
variable temperature forecast north of I-4 this afternoon with highs
ranging the mid 70s to low 80s. South of Orlando and the Cape,
temperatures become more uniform in the low to mid 80s. Lows are
forecast mostly in the low to mid 60s Monday morning. Cooler
conditions spread southward into Monday afternoon with highs ranging
the low 70s across the far north, reaching the upper 70s across the
south near Lake Okeechobee.

Tuesday-Saturday... Surface high pressure builds over central
Florida on Tuesday, gradually weakening through mid week as a cold
front pushes into the southeast U.S. Low pressure rounding the
base of a mid level trough pulls the cold front across central
Florida into the weekend. Conditions remain mostly dry through
Thursday with isolated showers returning to the forecast Friday
ahead of the front. Afternoon temperatures spreading the upper 60s
to low 70s on Tuesday gradually warm late week, reaching the mid
to upper 70s by Friday. Temperatures then fall to range the mid
60s to low 70s Saturday behind the front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

A weak cold front oscillates northward today before passing cleanly
south of the local waters on Monday. South to southwest flow around
10-15 kts develops today, becoming more variable across the Volusia
waters in vicinity of the frontal boundary. Poor to hazardous
boating conditions develop late Monday as northerly winds
approaching 20-25 kts build seas 6-8 ft in the Gulf Stream. High
pressure builds over the waters Tuesday, gradually weakening through
mid weak. Winds slacken out of the northeast on Tuesday, eventually
shifting offshore Wednesday. Hazardous seas in the Gulf Stream
linger through Tuesday, before gradually subsiding to 5-6 ft on
Wednesday and becoming widely 3-4 ft by Thursday. High coverage of
showers and storm build south and east across the local waters late
this afternoon and evening, continuing overnight. Rain chances
diminish from north to south behind the front Monday with dry
conditions building into mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 643 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

MVFR conditions for most TAF sites as of around 12Z. Expect these
conditions to persist through around 14Z before improving. A few
light showers are still present on radar this morning. However,
mostly dry conditions are forecast to continue through early
afternoon. Then, a cold front will pass southward through the
local area, bringing SHRA with embedded lightning storms. The line
is expected to reach LEE/DAB first by around 22Z, then continue
southward, reaching SUA by 5Z. As the front moves into the
Treasure Coast, TS chances are forecast to diminish, with only
SHRA included there. Elsewhere, TEMPOs for TSRA can be found
during expected peak impact times. A few strong storms cannot be
ruled out. Behind the front, VCSH looks to persist through much
of the overnight, with MVFR/IFR CIG reductions once again.
Southerly winds this morning will veer generally northerly into
Monday at around 10 kts or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  61  71  53 /  70  80  20   0
MCO  81  66  74  55 /  60  70  40   0
MLB  82  64  75  59 /  40  60  50   0
VRB  83  64  77  60 /  40  60  60   0
LEE  76  62  72  49 /  60  80  30   0
SFB  78  64  73  53 /  60  80  30   0
ORL  79  65  73  54 /  60  70  40   0
FPR  84  65  78  60 /  30  50  60  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Leahy