161
FXUS62 KMLB 151956
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
256 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 243 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

- A seasonably warm and dry weekend is forecast across east
  central Florida. Patchy morning fog is possible, mainly over
  rural locations.

- There is a Moderate Risk of life-threatening rip currents at
  Atlantic beaches this weekend.

- Little to no rain is anticipated over the rest of the weekend
  and most of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Rest of Today-Sunday...Surface high pressure shunted south over
Florida and flattened by a low pressure system passing to our
north today will begin to slide offshore Sunday. Winds will be
mostly light and variable today as the ridge axis transits Central
Florida, which drops into South Florida by Sunday morning,
shifting winds offshore as the pressure gradient across Central
Florida tightens a bit ahead of an approaching weak front
associated with the passing low pressure system. Sunday afternoon
winds pick up to to around 10 mph inland and 10-15 mph along the
coast, with gusts up to 20 mph. Dry conditions with only a very
low (10% or less) chances for a light onshore moving shower along
the Treasure Coast this afternoon, and essentially zero chance for
showers Sunday in the offshore flow. Highs near normal in the
U70s-L80s. One more cool morning for most Sunday with below
normal lows in the L50s-M50s, except the southern coast who are
closer to normal in the U50s-L60s. Not very confident in Sunday`s
morning fog potential. Ground fog will be possible across much of
the area, but conditions aren`t super favorable for proper fog.
Highest chances (such as they are at less then 20%) for fog are
once again well north of I-4, but given the ridge axis dropping
south opted to keep patchy fog across much of the rural interior
in the forecast.

Monday-Tuesday...The aforementioned weak front washes out as it
sags into Central Florida Monday having outrun its upper level
support, leaving a ribbon of residual moisture under weak ridging
as high pressure builds back behind the front at the surface.
Between the lackluster PWATs and weak subsidence, dry conditions
remain forecast for most, but some light showers could develop
over the Atlantic waters and brush the coast Tuesday once winds
become more onshore again, after having been mostly light and
variable Monday. Otherwise there will continue to be the potential
for late/night early morning fog, and continued gradual warming
with afternoon highs in the U70s-L80s and morning lows in the
U50s-M60s.

Wednesday-Friday...Ridging over the eastern US amplifies in
response to a sharp trough digging into the Central US,
supporting a somewhat amorphous area of surface high pressure
along the eastern seaboard Wednesday, Thursday, and most or all of
Friday. A few influxes of residual low-level moisture from the
washed out front could support some showers over the Atlantic
waters that may brush the coast, but chances remain low (20% or
less), and dry conditions are expected for the rest of the area.
Above normal temperatures with afternoon highs creeping towards
the M80s and morning lows mostly in the 60s, though still in the
U50s well north of I-4 midweek, and approaching 70 along the
southern coast late week. Keeping an eye on the next big weather
system for the US late next week, but model to model and run to
run consistency has been very low thus far, even with the
evolution of the upper level pattern supporting the surface
weather system (multiple troughs interacting over the West to
Central US has caused some wild solutions). Over the last couple
days have seen models swing from calling for a modest front to
push through Florida, and a weak front wash out north of the area,
sometime late Friday to early Sunday. All that to say, forecast
confidence Friday onward is very low at this time, but not
expecting a significant cool down, if any, with this system.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions through the rest of the
weekend and at least mid next week. High pressure over Florida and
the local Atlantic waters flattens and shifts offshore through
the weekend in response to a low pressure system passing to our
north. The front associated with the low is forecast to sag into
the area Monday, then washes out Tuesday as high pressure builds
over the eastern seaboard mid to late week.

Light and variable winds today as the ridge axis transits the
area, becoming westerly Sunday at 10-15 kts, up to 15-20 kts
offshore of the Daytona and Space coasts as the pressure gradient
tightens ahead of the approaching weak front. Winds become light
and variable again Monday as the weak frontal boundary sags into
Central Florida and the local Atlantic waters, settling to onshore
5-15 kts Tuesday and Wednesday as the front washes out and high
pressure builds over the area. Seas 2-4 ft, up to 5 ft in the Gulf
Stream late Sunday. A few shallow marine showers can`t be ruled
out, mainly Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons as low-level moisture
increases a bit in moderate onshore flow, but heavy rainfall and
lightning storms remain out of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1244 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Northeast flow this
afternoon will become east to southeast later in the afternoon.
Speeds will generally be 10 KT or less. Winds will then become
light and variable once again overnight. Models are hinting at
patchy fog developing late tonight into early Sunday morning
across the far western interior. Confidence remains low this will
occur. So have kept mention out of TAFs at this time. Winds will
then veer southwest/west by mid Sunday morning and increase to
5-10 KT, increasing to 8-12 KT in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  55  78  60  77 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  56  79  60  80 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  58  80  60  78 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  58  80  59  79 /  10   0   0   0
LEE  55  78  59  79 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  56  78  60  79 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  57  78  61  79 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  57  80  58  79 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Watson