618
FXUS62 KMLB 220314
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1014 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 352 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue tonight
  through Friday night.

- Below normal temperatures forecast to persist through late week
  and into this weekend, and will be the coldest temperatures of
  the season so far.

- Remaining dry over the next several days, with fire sensitive
  conditions continuing late week into this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1004 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

Forecast remains on track with no changes needed. A reinforcing
cold front will drop into Florida tonight, pushing overnight lows
across most of East Central Florida down into the 40s, with just
coastal Martin County holding onto the low 50s. Northwest winds
5-10 mph will result in wind chill values around 5 degrees cooler
than the air temperature, generally down to around 40 degrees
(L-M40s in coastal Martin), but possibly into the U30s in the
usually cooler spots. Clear skies and dry conditions.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

Tonight-Friday...Mid/upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will
force a dry reinforcing cold front through the area tonight. This
will continue an elevated northwest wind flow across the region
through tomorrow. Wind speeds will remain around 10 mph tonight, up
to 10-15 mph along the coast, and then becoming breezy again into
tomorrow afternoon with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph. This will continue
to usher in drier and much cooler air into the area. It will turn
colder into tonight, with lows in the 40s and wind chill values as
low as the upper 30s to low 40s toward daybreak. Highs on Friday
will be around 7 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year,
ranging from the mid to upper 60s across much of east central FL,
except near 70 degrees along the Treasure Coast.

Friday night-Sunday...Trough aloft shifts off the eastern U.S.
coast, with high pressure at the surface settling southeast and
across the region into this weekend. This will maintain dry
conditions through the weekend, and allow northwest winds to weaken.
Lighter winds and a very dry airmass in place will allow temps to
be even a tad colder into Friday night, but lows are still
forecast in the low to mid 40s over much of the area. Wind speeds
will be around 5 mph or less that night, but will still equate to
wind chills as low as the mid 30s to low 40s early Saturday
morning. Highs will remain cooler than normal in the mid to upper
60s on Saturday. Lows will again fall into the 40s Saturday night,
and highs will be a tad higher, but still slightly below normal,
in the low to mid 70s on Sunday.

Monday-Thursday...(Previous Discussion) A warming trend resumes
early next week as zonal mid level flow builds over the central and
eastern CONUS. Dry weather continues as moisture fields are slow to
recover until later in the week. Light onshore winds become
established as daytime highs push into the upper 70s and low 80s.
Morning lows Monday will still be in the mid to upper 40s north of I-
4, rebounding into the 50s and low 60s areawide Tuesday and
Wednesday morning. Model output diverges regarding the synoptic
pattern over the CONUS Tuesday into Wednesday, which has downstream
implications regarding what sensible weather we experience from
Thanksgiving Day onward. Right now, we can anticipate near to
slightly above normal temperatures for the holiday, along with
mostly dry conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 352 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

Tonight...A reinforcing cold front will move through the waters
tonight, with NW winds increasing back up to 20-25 knots, which will
maintain seas up to 6-8 feet offshore. A Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect for the entire coastal waters through tonight for
these hazardous boating conditions.

Friday-Monday...(Previous Discussion) Hazardous boating conditions
are forecast to last through much of Friday, with gradual
improvement Friday night into Saturday as winds and seas slowly
decrease. 10-14 kt NW flow is anticipated on Saturday, falling
below 10 kt for Sunday and Monday. Seas Friday around 5-8 ft in
the Gulf Stream fall below 7 ft Saturday morning, decreasing
further to 2-3 ft by Sunday. Favorable boating looks to persist
through the middle of next week as high pressure becomes centered
over the FL Peninsula and local waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 624 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

VFR and dry condition prevailing through the TAF period.
Northwest winds around 10 KT this evening will remain elevated
overnight before increasing once again to 10-15KT with gusts
20-25KT by mid-morning. Winds will then decrease to around 10 KT
by late afternoon and then to around 5 KT overnight on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  45  65  42  66 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  47  67  44  66 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  47  69  45  67 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  48  70  45  68 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  46  66  42  66 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  45  66  42  66 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  48  67  45  68 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  46  70  44  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for AMZ550-552-555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Haley
AVIATION...Watson