799
FXUS62 KMLB 011828
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
128 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 236 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

- Patchy fog developing early this morning, particularly over the
  interior where it may become locally dense at times.

- Low chances for showers continue today. By Tuesday, a few
  lightning storms are possible as moisture increases and a
  front approaches the area. Dry conditions are then forecast mid
  to late week behind the front.

- Boating conditions will deteriorate tonight into Tuesday ahead
  of the front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Current-Tonight...Primary concern for today is whether any patchy
fog, locally dense at times, develops early this morning -
primarily across the interior. A weak front will settle across
the Deep South to include north FL, where it will become quasi-
stationary. Light onshore (NE/ENE) flow 5-10 mph continues through
the day. Low pressure will develop across the northwest Gulf
during the day and begin to move northeastward tonight. This will
act to push a cold front into the FL Panhandle by Tue morning.
PWATs tonight will pool to 1.60-1.70 inches areawide ahead the
approaching boundary. Onshore low-level flow may be enough to
occasionally allow for a few showers to push onto the coast this
morning, especially Treasure Coast with some of this activity
possibly moving into the interior this afternoon. Chances are
relatively low at ISOLD to WDLY SCT (20-30pct) and suspect most
areas will remain dry.

925 mb winds become southerly later tonight increasing to 20-25 kts
by midnight, then 25-30 kts by sunrise Tue morning. Surface winds
will be light ESE/SE this evening, continuing to veer more southerly
ahead of daybreak increasing to around 10 mph.

Warm maxes (above climo) today in the U70s to L80s. Overnight lows
continue mild and in the M-U60s areawide.

Tue-Tue Night...Low pressure continues to race off northeastward up
the Atlc Seaboard, thus pushing the aforementioned cold frontal
boundary into/thru central FL during the evening/overnight period.
Scattered to numerous showers with isolated lightning storms in play
will increase in coverage/intensity during the day; initially across
the I-4 corridor during the morning and afternoon - points further
south mainly during the afternoon and early evening. Primary storm
impacts will be occasional lightning strikes, gusty to locally
strong winds, and brief downpours. Instability remains only
marginal. Activity will be moving SW to NE at a decent clip of 30 to
40 mph. Convection shifts offshore during the evening/overnight. As
the pressure gradient increases early in the period, even outside of
gusty showers or storms, we will see breezy SW/WSW winds 15-20 mph
with gusts to 30 mph.

Highs several degrees above normal in the L-M80s (pre-frontal) on
this day. Behind the front overnight lows will sink into the L-M50s
north/west of I-4 with near 60F to L60s southward. Barrier islands
likely to realize M60s for mins.

Wed-Sun...Mid-level high pressure remains flattened across the FL
Straits and Bahamas thru the extended resulting in nearly zonal
flow across the FL peninsula for much of this period. At the
surface, high pressure builds into the southeast U.S. thru mid-
late week, with the next low pressure system developing across the
northern Gulf and dragging our next cold front through the area
possibly Sat night (ECMWF) or if the GFS has its way - stalling
north of central FL until Sun/Sun night before pushing it through.
For the moment we keep conditions dry Wed-Fri, with the NBM
trying to moisten us up enough to add PoPs back into the forecast
during the day on Sat and keeping a small PoP in the forecast
thru Sun night. Uncertainty remains with medium range models, but
do believe highest PoP chances will surround the next front`s
approach/passage sometime this next weekend.

Closer to seasonal highs on Wed (post-frontal) with maxes in the
L70s across I-4, with M-U70s southward. A warming trend begins
slowly on Thu with highs again in the M-U70s, except L70s for
coastal Volusia with the developing onshore flow. U70s to L80s
prevail Fri-Sat (perhaps a few M80s south of Orlando on Sat), and
depending on the next front`s passage will see maxes shunted by a
few to several degrees as early as Sun and/or Mon. For mins, a
chilly night Wed night/Thu morning in the U40s to around 50F N/W
of I-4 with L-M50s most everywhere else, except U50s and a few
L60s for coastal south Brevard and E of I-95 along the Treasure
Coast. For Thu overnight, 50s and L60s (coast), and generally 60s
areawide Fri/Sat nights, and potentially 50s for Sun/Mon nights.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Today-Tonight...Seas remain near 5-6 ft at buoy 41009 and it will
be a judgement call if Cautionary Statements are extended offshore
with early morning coastal waters forecast issuance. NE-ENE winds
developing today around 10 kts. With approach of the next weather
system and strengthening wind field, we will see winds begin to
veer ESE/SE this evening and overnight becoming southerly by
daybreak Tue morning. Speeds tonight will increase 10-15 kts very
near shore and 15-20 kts over the open Atlc, but will increase
further well offshore north of Sebastian Inlet to 18-23 kts by
daybreak Tue. As such, we should initiate Cautionary Statements
for increasing winds this evening offshore, with a Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) to go into effect at 09Z/4AM Tue morning for
offshore marine legs north of Sebastian Inlet. Seas 3-5 ft near
shore and 4-5 ft offshore (perhaps up to 6 ft still early this
morning). After midnight and toward daybreak Tue morning, seas
respond to the increasing winds by building 5-6 ft (again) offshore
Vero Beach northward. Isolated to scattered showers forecast and
cannot rule out isolated lightning storms.

Tue-Fri...For now the SCA goes thru 03Z/10PM Tue evening offshore
north of Sebastian Inlet. SSW/SW winds around 20-25 kts for the
Advisory and 15/15-20 kts elsewhere gradually relax later Tue
afternoon/evening, as winds continue to veer WSW by early evening
Tue, then NWRLY (post-frontal) Tue night continuing into Wed-Wed
night as the pgrad continues to relax and winds diminish further.
Direction becomes more northerly early on Thu, but quickly veers
NE/E during the day on Thu-Thu night, finally SE/S into Fri. Seas
come down 3-5 ft Tue night, becoming 3-4 ft by Wed afternoon thru
Fri, but may see some 5 ft seas well offshore Volusia on Thu.

Pre-frontal on Tue, we will see highest precip chances with offshore
moving showers/isolated lightning storms, mainly in the afternoon
and early evening. A few of these storms have the potential to be
gusty with occasional lightning strikes and torrential downpours
the other threats. This continues into early evening, then
gradually winds down across the Gulf Stream overnight as the cold
front weakens and pushes through. Wed-Fri, presently, remain
mostly dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1251 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

VFR conditions prevail at ECFL terminals today and the first half
of tonight. There is potential for MVFR-IFR VIS/CIG reductions
after 08Z south of a weak front lifting into NOFL tonight, but
confidence where/when impacts will manifest and whether we`ll have
a combination of stratus/fog, or one or the other is low. HREF
calls for mainly stratus to lift north from SOFL, reaching KMCO
and area terminals after 12Z, while consensus is going for a
typical west-south propagation of combination stratus/fog from
WCFL/NOFL after 08Z. Given the lack of consistency keeping the
TAFs VFR for now with SCT008 after 08Z at terminals with at least
20% chance for IFR reductions. MVFR-IFR impacts may persist at
KMCO and area terminals as late as 19Z Tuesday as the front pushes
back south into CFL. In addition, a line of ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA is
expected ahead of the front between 15Z-21Z, but should weaken as
it pushes through the area. Winds this afternoon NE 10-15 kts and
gusty at times shift SSW around 5 kts late tonight, then quickly
increase to around 15 kts from the WSW-SW with gusts to around 25
kts by late morning Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  81  57  70 /  10  40  10   0
MCO  67  81  62  74 /  10  40  10   0
MLB  67  82  63  75 /  20  40  10   0
VRB  67  83  63  77 /  20  30  10   0
LEE  65  80  57  70 /  10  50  10   0
SFB  66  81  60  72 /  10  40  10   0
ORL  66  81  60  72 /  10  40  10   0
FPR  66  83  63  78 /  20  30  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ550-
     575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ570-
     572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Haley