637
FXUS62 KMLB 081730
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1230 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 435 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

- Brief improvement to surf and boating conditions today then
  deteriorating conditions again this weekend with High Risk of
  rip currents forecast

- Continued warm with isolated, onshore-moving showers through
  the weekend

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

Mostly quiet on radar this morning, with only isolated light
showers and sprinkles moving on shore and across the Atlantic.
These showers and sprinkles are moving generally west to west
northwest around 10 mph. Satellite and surface observations shows
that a few low and high level clouds are streaming overhead.
otherwise, mostly sunny skies this morning. The pressure gradient
has loosened a bit today, so expect the onshore flow to be around
10 mph across the interior and 10-14mph along the coast. Mostly
dry conditions are expected through tonight, with only isolated
showers possible along the coast in the onshore flow. Above normal
temperatures will persist, with afternoon highs in the mid 80s.
Leesburg has a chance to tie their record high (87F) for today
from 2018. Forecast remains on track with no major changes.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 435 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

Today...A brief respite from the breezy/gusty winds as the
pressure gradient loosens a bit and the onshore wind flow
decreases around 10 mph interior and 10-14 mph coast. While most
areas will remain dry, isolated Atlc showers will be able to push
onshore. Continued above normal temperatures reaching the mid 80s
most areas. Leesburg has a chance to equal its record high of 87F
from 2018.

Weekend...High pressure over the Great Lakes will push E/SE and
off the NJ coast while building down the eastern seaboard.
The tightening pressure gradient will support increased east wind
flow once again with wind speeds 15-20 mph and gusty esp along the
coast. Above normal temperatures continue esp with overnight lows
holding 10-15 degrees above normal and highs both days in the mid
80s interior and lower 80s immediate coast. Record highs appear
largely out of reach with the exception of Leesburg which could
equal its record of 86F from 2018. Forecast soundings indicate
just enough moisture present in the lowest 1 km to produce
shallow, isolated showers that approach the coast from time to
time. Some of this activity may push well inland during the
daytime (peak heating) hours, but no lightning is forecast.
Increased onshore flow will produce rough surf and a HIGH risk of
rip currents at the beaches this weekend.

Mon-Thu...A trough of low pressure is forecast to be steered
westward around the southern periphery of the Atlc high pressure
across the SE Bahamas and Cuba this weekend, then NW across the
Florida Straits Mon. Moisture will increase from the south with
this feature on Mon resulting in scattered showers and isolated
storms focused across our southern counties, south of Orlando and
Cape Canaveral. A weak cool front is forecast to push across the
area Tue and absorb this disturbance. A period of north winds is
forecast Tue then veering quickly E/NE Wed followed by approach of
another frontal boundary Thu. Shower chances were kept low Tue and
below mentionable values on Wed and Thu for now. Highs in the mid
80s Mon should lower a couple/few degrees during the mid week but
a significant intrusion of cool air is not forecast at least thru
Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 435 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

A loosening of the pressure gradient today will allow winds to
decrease 10 knots across the north and 10-15 knots south. Seas
will subside 3-4 FT. Reinforcing high pressure will build down the
eastern seaboard this weekend and tighten the pressure gradient,
increasing winds 15-20 kt Sat and near 20 knots Sat night/Sun.
Seas will respond, building to 6 FT offshore late Sat/Sat eve
reaching the nearshore waters by Sun morning with 7-8 FT offshore.
These conditions will require Small Craft Advisories as early as
late Sat and continuing Sun night. By Mon, the pressure gradient
will ease as a sfc trough or weak low lifts NW across the FL
Straits and brings a chance for showers and isolated storms. A
frontal boundary is forecast to cross the area Tue with North
winds around 10 knots and choppy seas esp in the Gulf Stream.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1221 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

Continued easterly flow through the upcoming TAF period with
relativley dry airmass above 850 mbs through Saturday. This will
allow for mainly VFR conds outside of a few-isold onshore moving
-SHRA thru Sat aftn.

Favored VCSH for KDAB-KMLB corridor tonight and KMLB-KSUA
corridor Sat morning with isold -SHRA moving onshore from the
Atlc. E winds this aftn near 10 KT will drop overnight and then
increase again to 10-13 KT by 15Z Sat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  84  72  83 /  20  20  20  20
MCO  71  84  71  84 /  10  10  10  20
MLB  72  83  73  83 /  20  20  20  20
VRB  73  84  74  84 /  20  20  20  20
LEE  69  86  70  85 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  70  84  71  84 /  10  10  20  20
ORL  71  85  71  85 /  10  10  20  20
FPR  72  83  73  83 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Watson
AVIATION...Volkmer