494
FXUS62 KMLB 012349
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
649 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

- Poor to hazardous beach and boating conditions are forecast this
  week as a result of persistent onshore flow and building seas.

- Increasing moisture will lead to a better chance for some
  onshore-moving showers and storms from Tuesday onward.

- Temperatures are forecast to trend warmer through this week,
  with afternoon highs reaching 5 to 10 degrees above normal by
  late week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

Current-Tonight...Residual moisture from a frontal boundary that
has stalled across south Florida has led to continued development
of showers and isolated storms across the Treasure Coast and its
adjacent Atlantic waters through this morning and into the early
afternoon hours. Drier air that has settled in across northern
portions of east central Florida have helped keep conditions
mostly dry today, and this pattern is anticipated to persist into
the overnight hours. East-northeast flow is being observed
areawide as high pressure settles across the southeastern US, with
afternoon temperatures remaining on track to reach the upper 70s
across the interior. Tonight, shower and storm activity is
forecast to wane as moisture decreases due to the boundary
drifting further south. Activity may continue across the local
waters, and a stray onshore- moving shower south of Sebastian
Inlet cannot be ruled out. Winds remain out of the east-northeast,
falling to 5 to 10 mph overnight. Lows are anticipated to range
from the low 50s to the mid 60s, with the cooler temperatures
concentrated north of the I-4 corridor and the warmer temperatures
focused along the coast south of the Cape.

Monday-Sunday...Mid-level ridging strengthens across the Gulf and
shifts eastward across Florida and the Atlantic, supporting a
broad area of high pressure at the surface. The center of the
surface high will move from the northeastern US offshore to the
north-central Atlantic towards mid-week. Locally, this will result
in an extended period of onshore winds across east central
Florida. Drier conditions are forecast on Monday, but there
remains a low chance for some showers south of the Cape. By
Tuesday, warm, moist air advects towards the Florida peninsula
from the Atlantic due to the persistent onshore flow, causing an
increase in rain chances across the local Atlantic waters.
Isolated to scattered shower development is anticipated across the
local Atlantic waters through the extended forecast period and
there is a chance (20-50%) for some of these showers to move
onshore thanks to the easterly flow. Farther intrusion inland will
be possible, especially when showers are given an additional push
inland by the east coast sea breeze. There is a low chance (20%)
for storm development some afternoons, though confidence remains
low. Occasional lightning strikes and gusty winds would likely be
the primary concerns, with activity likely remaining sub-severe.
Any showers or storms that move onshore would diminish into the
overnight hours, with ongoing development possible across the
waters.

Temperatures are forecast to trend warmer through the extended
period, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s on Monday reaching
the mid to upper 80s next weekend. The warmest temperatures will
be focused across the interior each day, as onshore flow and the
east coast sea breeze will help keep the immediate coast a few
degrees cooler. Overnight temperatures are forecast to remain
slightly above normal in the low 60s through the extended period.

Persistent onshore flow will lead to increasing seas across the
local Atlantic waters. This is anticipated to lead to a high risk
of rip currents at the local beaches over the coming days.
Entering the surf will not be advised.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast to continue
through the remainder of today, with east-northeast winds 10 to
15 knots and seas remaining between 3 to 5 feet. Monday, onshore
winds are forecast to freshen, increasing to 15 to 25 knots
through the day and into the evening hours. Seas respond by
building to 5 to 8 feet across the local Atlantic waters Monday
night, with poor to hazardous boating conditions anticipated to
persist through much of this week. Small craft will likely need to
exercise caution beginning tomorrow, with Small Craft Advisories
likely needed starting late Monday night as conditions
deteriorate.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across the
local Atlantic waters through the extended period as persistent
onshore flow and warm, moist air create a favorable environment for
development. Some activity may be able to move onshore, especially
from Tuesday onward. Any storms that manage to develop would likely
be capable of producing lightning strikes and gusty winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 649 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

Showers are diminishing along much of the Treasure Coast, although
VCSH is forecast to persist near SUA into the overnight hours.
Northeast winds around 9-12 kts at the top of the 00Z TAF will
subside some through the evening, becoming 5-8 kts into tonight.
Winds shift more easterly Monday, increasing to around 9-12 kts
areawide with gusts up to 20 kts along the Treasure Coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  57  76  61  77 /   0   0  20  40
MCO  60  78  63  79 /   0   0  10  50
MLB  62  76  63  78 /  10  20  30  50
VRB  63  78  63  79 /  20  20  40  50
LEE  56  80  60  81 /   0   0  10  30
SFB  58  79  61  80 /   0   0  10  40
ORL  59  79  62  80 /   0   0  10  40
FPR  62  78  63  79 /  20  30  40  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Law