339
FXUS62 KMLB 040623
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
223 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

- Repeated rounds of rain and storms today pose a Marginal Risk
  for localized flooding, especially over urban areas.

- Hazy skies will be possible late today and into Thursday due to
  an incoming Saharan Air Layer (SAL).

- Hot and very humid conditions are expected from this weekend into
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Today-Tonight... A weak surface boundary analyzed offshore
northeast Florida slowly lifts northward today. Deep moisture
(PWAT ~2-2.2) advects into central Florida as southerly flow
develops. CAMs suggest a wave of showers moving north-
northeastward across the area by sunrise, making for a sloppy
morning commute across southern portions of the forecast area.
There looks to be a break in rainfall by late morning with some
uncertainty in how widespread coverage may become into the
afternoon and evening. Warm temperatures at 500 mb (~-7 C), poor
mid-level lapse rates, and limited surface heating should limit
any strong storm potential. However, occasional rumbles of thunder
cannot be ruled out. While area total rainfall averages remain
less than 1, localized accumulations of 2-3 inches will be
possible where repeated rounds of rainfall may occur. Primary
hazards include ponding of water on roadways and minor flooding of
urban/ low lying areas. High temperatures are forecast in the low
80s under mostly cloudy skies.

A layer of Saharan dust moves into portions of south and central
Florida late this evening and into tonight. Global model soundings
suggest a dry layer developing in the low levels below 700mb
potentially settling closer to the surface by early Thursday
morning. Based on earlier observations across portions of the
Caribbean, cannot rule out minor surface visibility reductions
through parts of the day Thursday.

Thursday-Friday... A weak area of low pressure lifts along the
southeastern sea board through late week. As the low departs, a
surface ridge axis stretches across the western Atlantic and over
the Florida peninsula. South to southwest flow keeps high moisture
in place with modeled PWATs around 1.8-2. Global ensemble
members continue high coverage of showers Thursday, perhaps
decreasing a tad in coverage on Friday. Isolated lightning storms
will be possible each day, dominantly driven by surface
instability and mesoscale boundary collisions. However, continued
warm temperatures aloft and weak shear should generally limit
overall stronger storm development through the period. Will
continue to monitor for localized flooding of urban and low-lying
areas where repeated rounds of rainfall occur. High temperatures
mostly in mid to upper 80s on Thursday warm to reach the low 90s
across the interior on Friday.

Saturday-Tuesday... The surface ridge axis becomes further
established across east central Florida through the weekend and
into early next week. Southwest flow should generally favor a west
coast sea breeze regime, keeping the east coast breeze closer to
the coast each afternoon. Sufficient moisture remains in place,
although models hint at a brief period of drier air building in
vicinity of the I-4 corridor early Saturday (PWAT ~ 1.5-1.6).
Current trends suggest scattered rain chances peaking late each
afternoon. Steepening low level lapse rates favor at least an
isolated lightning storm threat each day. A warming trend is
forecast through the period with highs reaching the low to mid 90s
across the interior.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

A residual frontal boundary draped across Central Florida and the
local Atlantic waters will continue to slowly lift north today,
largely departing the area by Thursday. High pressure over the
Atlantic builds back towards Florida in the wake of this system,
with the ridge axis eventually settling south of Central Florida by
late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Deep tropical moisture will feed northward over the peninsula thanks
to an upper-level disturbance positioned over the eastern Gulf.
These features are expected to keep conditions unsettled over the
next 18-24 hours with multi-layered clouds, scattered to numerous
showers, and an occasional threat for thunderstorms. While the big
picture portends less-than-ideal conditions, there is considerable
uncertainty surrounding coverage and timing of showers and storms,
so overall confidence is low. Nonetheless, we expect multiple
opportunities for passing showers at all terminals today, with a
window this afternoon and early evening for lightning storms
(advertised with VCTS for now).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  83  71  88  71 /  70  60  70  40
MCO  82  72  88  73 /  70  50  70  20
MLB  84  74  87  73 /  70  50  60  30
VRB  85  73  88  73 /  70  40  50  30
LEE  82  72  88  74 /  70  50  70  20
SFB  84  72  89  73 /  70  50  70  30
ORL  83  73  89  74 /  70  50  70  20
FPR  85  72  87  73 /  60  40  50  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Ulrich