810
FXUS62 KMLB 081121
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
621 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible today
  and again on Sunday. There is a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe
  weather on Sunday.

- Below normal temperatures with wind chill values in the upper
  20s to mid 30s are forecast across east central Florida early
  next week behind the strong cold front.

- Patchy fog will be possible late tonight into early Sunday
  across the interior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Today-Tonight...Quasi-zonal flow aloft is forecast across the
Florida peninsula today as troughing begins to organize in the
mid- levels across the central U.S. A weak ridge axis establishes
itself across the area, with light southwest winds present prior
to the development of a weak sea breeze thanks to temperatures
warming into the mid 80s. The sea breeze is anticipated to remain
fairly pinned along the coast, and isolated shower development
cannot be ruled out as the west coast sea breeze moves across the
peninsula and interacts with the pinned east coast breeze.
Maintain a 20% chance of rain primarily from Orlando to the Cape
and areas southward. If activity manages to develop, there is a
low chance (20%) for storm development. Sufficient daytime heating
will support greater instability, with steep low level lapse
rates present and DCAPE values exceeding 800 J/kg based on model
soundings. Wind gusts to 40 mph and lightning strikes will be the
primary concerns with any storm activity that manages to develop.
Showers and storms then move offshore into the overnight hours,
with mostly dry conditions forecast. Patchy fog development will
be possible across the interior west of I-95 late tonight. Lows
fall into the mid 60s.

Sunday-Monday...Mid-level troughing strengthens across the
central U.S., with an area of low pressure developing near the
Ohio Valley on Sunday, with its attendant cold front extending
southward towards the Ark-La-Tex region. The low will gradually
lift northeastward as the trough extends farther south towards the
southeast U.S., pushing the cold front closer to the Florida
peninsula. Locally, ahead of the front, isolated to scattered
shower development and isolated storm development will be
possible. Ample daytime heating will lead to sufficient
instability, with MUCAPE forecast to exceed 1200 J/kg across much
of east central Florida. Modeled soundings also indicate modest
low level lapse rates and DCAPE values of 850 J/kg and greater
areawide. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted areas north
of the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County in a Marginal Risk
(1/5) for severe weather on Sunday. Any storms that manage to
develop may be capable of producing wind gusts up to 60 mph as
well as frequent lightning strikes. 500 mb temperatures are also
forecast to be in the -10 to -9C range, so hail also cannot be
fully ruled out if storms are able to get that tall. Shower and
storm activity is anticipated to begin up north and expand
southward as the front approaches the area, moving across the
peninsula late Sunday into Monday.

Drier and cooler air then filters in across east central Florida
on Monday, with rain chances dropping to near 0%. Winds pick up
out of the north behind the front, with winds of 10 to 15 mph
forecast. Gusts to 20 mph will be possible. Afternoon temperatures
in the 80s on Sunday take a steep dive on Monday, with highs only
reaching the 60s to 70s. Monday night, the coldest temperatures
of the season thus far are forecast, with lows falling into the
mid 30s to low 40s. Windy conditions will also make it feel cooler
than it is, with wind chill values falling into the upper 20s to
mid 30s areawide.

Tuesday-Friday...The mid-level trough swings northeastward and
exits the area on Tuesday, with quasi-zonal flow forecast aloft
through the remainder of the forecast period. At the surface, an
area of high pressure is forecast to strengthen across the
southeastern U.S. behind the cold front, keeping conditions dry
through the end of this week and into the weekend. Temperatures
will continue to remain well below normal for this time of year on
Tuesday. Afternoon highs are forecast to only reach the mid 50s
to mid 60s, with the highest temperatures focused across the
Treasure Coast and near Lake Okeechobee. Lows Tuesday night fall
into the upper 30s north of the I-4 corridor and into the 40s
southward, with wind chill values in the upper 30s across much of
the interior. A warming trend then begins as the high sets up
across the area, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s Wednesday
and in the 70s to low 80s through the remainder of the week. Lows
in the 40s to 50s Wednesday and Thursday, with 50s areawide on
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions through this weekend
deteriorate on Monday behind a cold front that passes across the
local Atlantic waters Sunday night into Monday. Light
southwesterly winds veer to out of the north and increase to 20 to
30 knots Monday through Tuesday. Seas respond and quickly build,
increasing to 8 to 12 feet across the Gulf Stream waters and 5 to
8 feet across the nearshore waters, peaking on Tuesday. Winds and
seas then subside as high pressure builds across the local
Atlantic waters, with a return of favorable boating conditions
towards mid week.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible today
and again on Sunday out ahead of the cold front. Any storms that
manage to develop may be capable of producing gusty winds and
lightning strikes. Locally higher seas near stronger storms cannot
be ruled out. Dry conditions are then forecast behind the front
and through the remainder of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 552 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Generally VFR, but will likely see some patchy fog, locally dense
in places early this morning which should burn off ahead of mid-
morning. ISOLD showers possible this afternoon, but low coverage
and confidence so keeping "Vicinity" wording out of TAFs at this
time. Light/variable winds becoming SWRLY 5-10 kts, transitioning
onshore along the coast in the (mid/late) afternoon with sea
breeze formation. This evening, possible ISOLD convection from
near KTIX southward along the coast with activity either
dissipating or moving off of the coast by mid to late evening.
Will monitor trends and update with TEMPO groups as applicable.
Perhaps a better shot at some patchy (dense) fog development
overnight into early Sun morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  84  67  83  55 /  10  10  20   0
MCO  87  68  84  59 /  20  10  30   0
MLB  84  68  85  62 /  20  20  20  10
VRB  86  67  86  63 /  20  20  20  10
LEE  85  67  83  55 /  20  10  30   0
SFB  86  67  83  57 /  20  10  30   0
ORL  86  69  83  59 /  20  10  30   0
FPR  86  68  86  64 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Sedlock