486
FXUS62 KMLB 031315
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
915 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

- High Risk of rip currents persists at area beaches today, with
  poor boating conditions continuing over the Gulf Stream waters.

- Warmer than normal temperatures will continue through Monday,
  with near record highs forecast Sunday and Monday. Then turning
  cooler behind a cold front Tuesday into the middle of next week.

- Conditions will remain mostly dry through this weekend, with
  next best chance of rain (up to 60-70%) with passing cold front
  early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Overall, the forecast remains on track. Persistent breezy and at
times gusty southeasterly flow is expected across east central
Florida today, and has aided in the development of some light
sprinkles across the local Atlantic waters. Some activity has even
moved onshore, particularly across the immediate Treasure Coast.
This activity is anticipated to continue through the remainder of
the morning hours and into early afternoon. Temperatures remain
above normal across east central Florida today, with highs
climbing into the mid 80s along the coast east of I-95, and in the
upper 80s to low 90s across the interior.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Today-Tonight...High pressure at the surface will extend across the
west Atlantic and Florida, with ridge axis across the region. This
will continue a breezy southeasterly flow across east central FL
today, with gusts up to 20-30 mph this afternoon. Plenty of dry air
will exist in the mid/upper levels, but there will still be some low
level moisture that leads to areas of stratus this morning and
scattered diurnal cu in the afternoon. Can`t rule out stray isolated
showers developing over the waters and pushing onshore, especially
through this morning. However, overall coverage of this activity
should it develop will be quite limited, so have kept rain
chances below mentionable levels (less than 20 percent). Ridge
aloft across Florida will lead to another warmer than normal day,
with highs ranging from the low to mid 80s along the coast to
upper 80s/around 90 degrees inland. Southeast winds will diminish
gradually past sunset tonight, but will still range from 5-10 mph
inland and up to 10-15 mph along coastal sections south of the
Cape. Lows will remain mild in the 60s, with low 70s along the
immediate coast where wind speeds remain elevated.

Friday-Sunday...Deep layer ridge centered just east of Florida will
remain extended across the area, maintaining dry and much warmer
than normal conditions. Highs will be around 5-10 degrees above
normal as will overnight lows, with max temps for most locations in
the mid 80s to low 90s and lows in the 60s/low 70s. Based on the
latest forecast, record highs are mostly out of reach through
Saturday, but come close at Leesburg. However, on Sunday as temps
continue to gradually rise, interior sites and Daytona Beach are
either forecast to be close or reach their record highs for the
date. Southeast winds will continue Friday through Saturday,
becoming south-southeast into Sunday. Wind speeds will still be
breezy at times, especially along the coast each afternoon with the
development of the east coast sea breeze.

Monday-Wednesday...Ridge aloft shifts farther east as a trough moves
through the southeast U.S., pushing a cold front through the region
early next week. Ridge axis at the surface slips southward Monday as
the cold front approaches the area, with low level winds becoming
S/SW, which will delay the east coast sea breeze and allow highs to
reach the upper 80s to low 90s, nearing record highs for the date.
Rain/storm chances will gradually increase early next week as front
approaches and steadily moves through central Florida Monday night
into Tuesday.

There does remain some timing differences between the operational
runs of the GFS/ECMWF in frontal passage and overall QPF, with the
GFS a little faster and not as wet as the ECMWF. Forecast leans
toward NBM, which is closer to the ECMWF solution, with rain chances
rising to 60-70 percent late Monday night through Tuesday. Low to
mid level SW wind fields do increase with the passage of this front,
so some stronger storms may be possible, but that will be largely
dependent on how much instability will be present as there still
remains some uncertainty on exact timing of the front.

Behind the front, cooler temperatures are forecast to move into the
area, with highs in the 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday and lows in the
50s to low 60s. Flow quickly becomes onshore behind the front, which
will keep some rain chances (20-40 percent) into midweek, with the
potential for onshore moving showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

High pressure extending across the west Atlantic and Florida will
maintain a moderate to fresh southeasterly breeze across the
coastal waters through late week and into Saturday, becoming south
to southeast into Sunday. Boating conditions will remain poor,
especially over the gulf stream waters for winds speeds up to
15-20 knots. Have maintained Small Craft Exercise Caution
headlines for this portion of the waters today and these will
likely continue into tonight. Seas will generally range from 3-5
feet through late week and into this weekend, with dry conditions
continuing.

Into Monday, a fresh southerly breeze continues to keep boating
conditions poor, with rain chances increasing as a cold front
approaches central Florida. Seas will range from 2-4 feet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 641 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

VFR but breezy-windy and gusty conditions prevail through the TAF
period. Saw some brief periods of MVFR CIGs at KSFB/KDAB/KLEE
this morning, but that cloud field has pushed north of ECFL with
mostly clear skies across the area. SE winds pick up to around 15
kts with gusts to around 25 kts by late morning, then veering
slightly and increasing to 15-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts in the
early afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Winds slowly diminish
going into the evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Sunday-Monday...Temperatures will continue to gradually climb into
the weekend and early next week approaching records in some
spots as they reach the upper 80s to low 90s, with winds veering
to the south-southeast Sunday and south-southwest on Monday. The
warmer than normal temperatures combined with dry conditions will
lead to lower relative humidity values, especially Sunday and
Monday afternoons. Min RH values are forecast as low as the mid
30s to low 40s across the interior Sunday afternoon and upper 30s
to low 40s on Sunday afternoon, which will lead to sensitive fire
weather conditions. Combined with breezy southeast winds, especially
along the immediate coast, fire danger will be elevated this
weekend into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  69  84  67 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  90  69  88  69 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  84  69  83  69 /  10   0   0   0
VRB  85  69  83  69 /  10   0   0   0
LEE  91  69  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  89  69  88  67 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  89  69  88  69 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  85  69  84  69 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Haley