426
FXUS62 KMLB 261913
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
309 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

- A High risk for dangerous rip currents will exist at area
  beaches today

- Turning hot this weekend with near record highs for some interior
  locations with further drying fuels. There is a Moderate
  HeatRisk over the interior Sunday afternoon and early evening

- Limited chance of showers (20-50%) Monday along with a risk for
  occasional lightning strikes

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Currently-Sunday... Local radar imagery shows dry weather over
east central Florida except for scattered sprinkles over the east
central Florida Atlantic waters. GOES-16 satellite imagery shows
partly to mostly sunny skies. Winds are from the east-southeast at
around 8-12mph with gusts to 20mph. High pressure (~1020mb) is
centered over the western Atlantic to the northeast of Bermuda and
high pressure (~1020mb) is also over the southeastern US. Dry
weather is expected to continue this tonight with light and
variable winds. There is a low chance (20%) for patchy fog with
visibility reductions to 1 mile or less over northern Lake,
northern Volusia, the Treasure Coast counties and Okeechobee
county mainly between 3am to 9am. Low temperatures in the 60s are
forecast with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies.

Isolated showers (PoPs ~20%) are forecast to develop into late
Sunday afternoon and evening (4PM to 11PM) mainly to the north of
I-4 as the east coast sea breeze converges with the west coast
sea breeze to the west of the Orlando metro. Generally, east
winds are forecast to increase into the afternoon at 8-15mph with
gusts to 20-25mph with the highest winds to the east of the
Orlando metro and lighter winds to the west. Above normal to near
record highs are forecast with temperatures in the mid to upper
80s near the coast and in the upper 80s to mid 90s inland to the
west of I-95. There is a Moderate HeatRisk over the interior of
east central Florida Sunday afternoon and early evening. This
level of heat affects most individuals sensitive to heat,
especially without effective cooling or adequate hydration.

Monday-Tuesday... A weak "cool" front is forecast to gradually
move south over northern Florida and the east central Florida
Atlantic waters late Sunday night into Monday. Isolated to
scattered showers (PoPs ~ 20-40%) and lightning storms are
forecast to develop over Volusia county and northern Brevard
county into Monday morning before rain chances (PoPs ~20-50%)
increase to the southwest over east central Florida into the
afternoon and evening on Monday as east-southeast winds converge
with the west coast sea breeze over the western interior of
central Florida. The main hazards with lightning storms on Monday
will be wind gusts up to 40mph, occasional lightning strikes, and
moderate to brief heavy rainfall. High pressure (~1024mb) is
expected to quickly build over the western Atlantic behind the
aforementioned "cool" front on Tuesday. Isolated onshore moving
showers (PoPs ~20%) are forecast on Tuesday with onshore flow in
place and PWATs in the 1.20-1.50" range. East winds are expected
to increase into each afternoon at 10-15mph with gusts to
20-25mph. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s are forecast near
the coast with the mid 80s to low 90s to the west of I-95 on
Monday. Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast on Tuesday with
highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s forecast. Lows in the 60s to
low 70s are forecast.

Wednesday-Friday... Drier air (PWATs ~0.70-1.10" Wednesday to
Thursday afternoon) is forecast mid week as a mid/upper level
ridge builds over the southeastern US and the state of Florida
Wednesday into Thursday before building over the western Atlantic
into Thursday afternoon. Rain chances (PoPs ~20%) return on
Friday as the ridge weakens/shifts east and moisture increases
with PWAT values in the 1.30-1.60" range. Isolated showers (PoPs ~
20%) are forecast Friday afternoon and evening as the east coast
sea breeze pushes inland and converges with the west coast sea
breeze over central Florida. Generally, east-southeast winds are
expected to increase into each afternoon at 10-15mph with gusts to
20-25mph through Thursday.Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s
are forecast near the coast with the mid 80s to low 90s to the
west of I-95 Wednesday and Thursday with the mid 80s to low 90s
forecast on Friday. Lows in the mid 60s to low 70s are forecast
near the coast with the upper 50s to mid 60s west of I-95.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Currently-Sunday... Favorable boating conditions are expected with
mostly dry weather. High pressure is expected to weaken and shift
south on Sunday before a "cool" front is forecast to gradually move
east- southeast over the east central Florida Atlantic waters
Sunday night and into the day on Monday. generally, east-
southeast winds at 6-14kts are forecast with seas to 2-4ft.

Monday-Wednesday... The previously mentioned "cool" front is
expected to gradually move south over the waters before high
pressure (~1024mb) quickly builds over the western Atlantic on
Tuesday. Isolated to scattered (PoPs ~20-50%) generally west to
southwest moving showers and isolated lightning storms are
forecast early Monday morning and into the day on Monday. Isolated
generally onshore moving showers and isolated lightning storms
are forecast on Tuesday. The main hazards with lightning storms on
Monday will be wind gusts up to 40mph, occasional lightning
strikes, and moderate to brief heavy rainfall. East winds at
12-18kts are forecast on Monday and Tuesday before reducing to
10-15kts from the east-southeast on Wednesday. Seas to 2-4ft are
expected with up to 5ft forecast over the Gulf Stream Monday night
and through early Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Winds becoming
lighter than the last couple weeks as high pressure over Florida
weakens, only picking up to 8-12 kts from the ESE this afternoon
and evening, then becoming light SE/S/VRB overnight and through
Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon`s ECSB snaps winds back to the
ENE-ESE at 8-12 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Very warm and dry conditions are forecast through Sunday with
continued drying of fuels. Minimum RH values will lower near 35%
across the interior Sunday afternoon. Minimum RH values are
forecast between 45-55% near the coast where dewpoints and
humidities will be higher due to effects of the sea breeze. Minimum
RH values increase on Monday and Tuesday before reducing to 35-40%
over the interior on Wednesday. Light east to southeast winds will
be enhanced by the sea breeze each afternoon through at least
Wednesday with speeds to 10-15 mph and gusts to 20-25mph. Maximum
temperatures in the low to mid 90s are forecast over the interior on
Sunday with the mid to upper 80s near the coast. Generally, Good
dispersion values are forecast Sunday with Generally Good to Very
Good Dispersions on Monday. Burn bans are in effect for Lake,
Seminole, Orange, Volusia, and Brevard counties. Isolated to
scattered showers (~20-50%) and isolated lightning storms (20-30%
chance) are forecast on Monday. Any lightning strikes will have the
potential to spark a wildfire given the dry conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Record high temperatures for April 27th

DAB 27-Apr 93 1989
LEE 27-Apr 93 2017
SFB 27-Apr 95 2017
MCO 27-Apr 97 1908
MLB 27-Apr 93 1961
VRB 27-Apr 93 2006
FPR 27-Apr 96 1945

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  88  67  83 /   0  10  20  40
MCO  65  93  68  90 /   0  10  20  40
MLB  66  85  68  84 /   0   0  10  30
VRB  65  85  67  85 /   0   0  10  20
LEE  66  93  68  89 /   0  20  20  40
SFB  65  93  68  89 /   0  20  20  40
ORL  67  93  68  89 /   0  20  20  40
FPR  65  85  66  84 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Haley