066
FXUS62 KMLB 031131
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
731 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

- There is a better chance for portions of East Central Florida
  to see heavy rainfall and flooding than previous days between a
  more active sea breeze, a collision closer to our area, and
  weaker steering flow. Other storm threats will be gusty winds to
  around 40 mph and occasional to frequent cloud to ground
  lightning.

- A wet weather pattern will persist across East Central Florida
  into the weekend. The main storm hazard through late week will
  continue to be the potential for locally heavy rainfall that
  could lead to mostly minor flooding issues.

- Muggy conditions and seasonably hot temperatures in the upper
  80s to low 90s will continue the next couple days, then
  temperatures increase a couple degrees going into the weekend.
  Peak afternoon heat indices remain in the triple digits.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Today-Tonight...Heavy rainfall for East Central Florida has been
more miss than hit that last few days, but that is likely to start
changing today. Another weak inverted trough has developed over
the nearby Atlantic waters, and overnight onshore moving showers
and lightning storms have already been more plentiful, and are
likely to continue through the morning. Between a weakening
pressure gradient on the western periphery of the Bermuda high and
troughs in and near the local Atlantic waters, low-level flow
becomes more southeasterly today, allowing a better defined east
coast sea breeze (more effective trigger for convection) to
develop, while also shifting portions of the collision and highest
afternoon storms chances into our area. The weak surface troughs
and the southeasterly flow they are producing keep moisture well
above normal (PWATs 2.2-2.4" approaching or exceeding daily
maximums). Model and upper air soundings continue to show a very
saturated environment with long-skinny instability profiles (CAPE
generally 1,000-2,000 J/kg, though some surface based parcels
could push towards 3,000 J/kg) and warm mid-levels (T500 -5C to
-4C) characteristic of heavy rainfall/efficient rain makers. In
addition to more surface triggers that could generate higher
coverage of convection on our side of the peninsula, weak offshore
steering flow becomes light/variable and storm motion is likely
to become slow/erratic. Storms and heavy showers will be capable
of delivering a quick 2-3" of rainfall leading to ponding of water
on roads and minor flooding of urban, low-lying, or poor drainage
areas. HREF guidance indicates there is a very low (up to 5%)
chance for a few locations to receive locally high amounts +5"
leading to greater flooding impacts, and the Weather Prediction
Center has outlooked all of East Central Florida in a Marginal
(level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. In addition to the
rainfall, stronger storms and heavy showers will be capable of
gusty winds to around 40 mph from water loading. Occasional to
frequent cloud to ground lightning will accompany thunderstorms.

As for the rest of the forecast, lots of cloud cover keeps
temperatures seasonable with highs in the U80s-L90s, and lows in
the muggy 70s. Peak afternoon heat indices 99-106. There is
Moderate risk of rip currents at the beaches. Always swim near a
lifeguard and never swim alone.

Friday-Saturday...The parent trough of a low pressure system
pushing offshore New England and the Canadian Maritimes will dig
down the eastern seaboard, shoving the ridge over the Southeast
back to the Central US, and the Bermuda high south. As the surface
ridge axis slides through Florida, flow will become more
southerly Friday, and southwesterly Saturday, shifting the sea
breeze collision and highest chances for afternoon showers and
lightning storms gradually farther into East Central Florida. Some
drier air will begin to intrude in the mid-upper levels,
decreasing cloud cover some and offering better destabilization
from daytime heating, and could also enhance downdrafts,
potentially resulting in more storms capable of stronger gusts
than previous days. A limiting factor for instability will be mid-
level temperatures which remain warm, and mostly occasional to
frequent lightning is expected with storms. The main threat from
storms will continue to be locally heavy rainfall of 2-4" and
minor flooding from slow moving storms. There is a very low (up to
5%) chance for isolated spots to receive around 4" of rainfall
leading to greater flooding impacts, and the Weather Prediction
Center has outlooked all of East Central Florida in a Marginal
(level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall Friday, and will
continue to monitor trends for Saturday. Temperatures creep up a
degree or two as the onshore flow give ways to southerly and more
sunlight peaks through the clouds, though we`ll remain seasonably
hot with highs generally in the U80s-L90s, creeping towards the
M90s inland. Muggy lows stay in the 70s.

Sunday-Wednesday...The trough over the eastern seaboard and
western Atlantic is forecast to reach just offshore the Southeast
seaboard Sunday or so, ushering a weakening front into the Deep
South, and possibly reaching Florida Monday or Tuesday. There
remains some uncertainty how far south the boundary will make it,
and more uncertainty where weak disturbances may develop on the
boundary as it stalls. Both impact whether East Central Florida
remains in the subtropical soup or if some drier air will finally
reach the area, what kinda of support there is for convection, and
what flow regime we end up in. Given the uncertainty the official
forecast trends towards the ensembles and blends, which call for
broad stroked rain chances to remain above normal, but do decrease
a bit towards mid-next week. Seasonable temperatures stay on the
hotter side through the weekend, then tick down a degree or two
for the work week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Today-Monday...Generally favorable winds and seas for boating, but
shower and storms chances will remain above normal. A slow moving
low pressure system tracking from Canada and New England into the
North Atlantic will push the Bermuda high ridge axis south over
Florida and the local Atlantic waters Friday into Saturday, then
south of the area Sunday. A weakening cold front associated with
the aforementioned low will arrive in the Deep South Sunday, and
may reach the local area early next week. Low-level flow will
gradually veer from ESE-SE today, to SE-SSE Friday, backing
slightly in the afternoons with the east coast sea breeze. Flow
becomes mainly light and variable over the weekend as the pressure
gradient loosens, with winds shifting between onshore in the
afternoons-evening and offshore in the overnight-mornings with the
sea breeze circulation. Wind speeds 5-15 kts. Seas 2-3 ft, up to 4
ft well offshore in the Gulf Stream today settle to 1-2 ft by
Saturday. Highest coverage of showers and storms in the overnights
to early morning, diminishing some in the afternoons and evenings.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 731 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Broken band of showers and isolated storms are currently pushing
onshore, extending near to north of KMCO/KTIX. This activity will
continue into the morning, with a slight northward push and
additional shower/isolated storm development will pick up into
mid/late morning. Have VCSH to start at most locations, with VCTS
and tempo TSRA group at KSFB to start for convection that has had
some lightning activity with it at times moving toward the
terminal. Elsewhere, VCTS begins after 18Z as storm coverage
continues to increase, with TEMPOs in effect across the interior
between 18-22Z and PROB30s in effect along the coast between
18-21Z for VIS and CIG reductions due to TSRA. Winds picking up to
around 10 knots out of the SE today. Activity is forecast to
gradually diminish beyond 00Z, with light SE winds areawide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  76  90  75 /  50  30  50  30
MCO  91  75  92  76 /  70  60  60  40
MLB  89  76  90  76 /  60  40  50  30
VRB  89  75  89  75 /  60  40  60  30
LEE  90  76  92  76 /  70  60  70  50
SFB  91  76  92  76 /  70  40  60  40
ORL  91  76  92  77 /  70  50  60  40
FPR  89  75  89  75 /  60  40  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Tollefsen/Weitlich