543
FXUS62 KMLB 052312
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
612 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 256 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

- Patchy fog that could become locally dense, reducing visibility
  to less than a mile, possible again tonight into Thursday
  morning.

- Potential for dense fog will continue each night and early
  morning through late week.

- Temperatures will remain warmer than normal, with mostly dry
  conditions through the week and weekend.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...Dry and quiet conditions the rest of the
day, then another round of Fickle-Fog expected across much of East
Central Florida tonight into Thursday morning. A few factors have
become less favorable for dense fog development across the
eastern half of the peninsula tonight, as high pressure over
Florida shifts eastward a bit. First, light southeasterly winds
winds veer southerly through the night, resulting in an offshore
component along the coast, making it harder for sea fog to develop
over the Atlantic waters and move onshore. Next, 925mb winds come
alive a little, expected to increase to around 10 kts over the
area and helping to promote some mixing. Last, coupled with the
slightly elevated winds above the surface, model soundings show a
weaker surface inversion. That said, conditions do still remain
favorable for some fog thanks to residual moisture, light winds,
and weak high pressure. Sea fog in the Gulf will be moving across
the peninsula towards East Central Florida tonight, doing battle
with less favorable environment over here towards the early.
Models are a mixed bag, not really instilling confidence in any
particular area or timing. Thus, the official forecast broadly
calls for patchy fog across the entire area, with locally dense
fog reducing visibility to less than a mile possible. If you
encounter dense fog on the roads, be sure to slow down, leave
plenty of following distance between vehicles, and use your low-
beam headlights. Conditions are forecast to improve by late
morning.

Otherwise, very warm with forecast temperatures 5-10 degrees
above normal. Afternoon highs inland forecast to reach the L-M80s,
and M70s-L80s along the coast. Pretty uniform overnight lows
forecast, mostly very near dewpoint temperatures in the L60s.

Thursday-Tuesday...(Modified Previous Discussion) The weather
pattern is forecast to persist through this weekend, with the weak
tail of high pressure over the tropical North Atlantic extending
to Florida in a suspiciously summer-like setup. Rain chances
through at least Sunday remain below 10 percent at this time, but
can`t rule out some isolated showers worthy of an increase to 20
percent the day of, especially down south Thursday and Friday as
daily sea breezes form and residual moisture from the last front
clings to the area. A little better agreement in the global models
for next week, which have all shifted the next potential front and
its moisture further north. If this trend holds, then mostly dry
conditions are on tap for next week. Predominantly south winds on
Thursday become light and variable Friday, before becoming
southerly once again into the weekend. During the afternoons, a
weak sea breeze may develop as a result of the temperature
gradient between land and the very cool shelf waters, causing
winds to become east-southeast as the circulation progresses
inland. A few showers along the sea breeze can`t be ruled out.
Highs remain above normal in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with lows
in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Fog development will continue to be
possible each evening into the early morning hours, with
visibility reductions of a mile or less possible in some spots. Be
sure to monitor the forecast if planning on driving through the
area during the overnight hours, and always use safe driving
techniques.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...The last small patch of sea fog in the
Brevard nearshore waters has finally cleared, with quiet
conditions across the local Atlantic waters. The afternoon east
coast sea breeze has developed, shifting winds near the coast
onshore at around 10 kts. Tonight, winds will surge a bit to 10-15
kts as they shift back to the south. Mainly dry conditions, but a
couple showers can`t be ruled out. Development of sea fog will be
possible again tonight, but as winds increase and become more
offshore, chances for fog reaching the coast decrease. Highest
chances for fog in the Brevard and Volusia nearshore waters.

Thursday-Sunday...Generally favorable boating conditions in a
suspiciously summer-like pattern. The center of high pressure over
the eastern seaboard is pushed out into the open Atlantic by a low
pressure system swinging through southern Canada, but the tail of
the ridge axis is forecast to remain over central Florida. With a
loose pressure gradient and warm conditions, light south to
southwest winds will allow a daily sea breeze circulation to
develop, shifting winds near the coast to southeasterly while
increasing to around 10 kts in the afternoons. Mostly dry
conditions, but isolated showers developing along convergence
lines and possibly even sea breeze will be possible. Lightning is
currently not forecast. Seas 2-3 ft, occasionally up to 4 ft well
offshore in the Gulf Stream.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 612 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

Kept a VFR forecast for the TAF period at all terminals. Guidance
is showing much lower coverage of fog tonight, perhaps due to
light S/SE winds off the surface. Will monitor and AMD with TEMPOs
as needed. Light SE or VRB winds overnight, becoming SSW 5-12 KT
on Thursday except SE 5-12 KT at the coast from MLB to SUA in the
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  61  82  58  79 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  64  83  61  82 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  63  80  60  79 /  10   0   0   0
VRB  64  82  61  81 /   0  20   0   0
LEE  61  83  60  81 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  63  84  60  82 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  64  84  62  82 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  62  81  60  80 /   0  20   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Heil