457
FXUS62 KMLB 041733
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
133 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

- Dangerous beach and marine conditions including life-
  threatening rip currents, high surf with breaking waves of 5 to
  8 feet, and minor to moderate beach erosion especially near
  times of high tide, will continue through the weekend.

- Scattered to numerous fast-moving showers off the Atlantic will
  support locally heavy rainfall where banding features can
  develop. Localized flooding will be a concern through the
  weekend and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Today-Mon...Surface high pressure over the eastern US centered
near the mid-Atlc seaboard shifts slowly offshore, but the tight
easterly pressure gradient on the southern side of the high will
keep breezy/gusty conditions across the area. East winds 15-20 mph
with gusts around 30 mph, esp at the coast. PWATs 1.7-1.9" will
be more than sufficient to produce scattered to numerous fast-
moving showers off the Atlc and well inland containing brief
downpours today. Banding structures that develop across the coast,
training over the same area, will be capable of producing
excessive rainfall with flooding concerns esp where soils are
saturated from recent heavy rains (Volusia, Martin, far north
Brevard counties). But most areas are not likely to see organized
persistent heavy rain today. Rain chances are 40% far interior to
60% coast today under warm and humid conditions with max temps
reaching the mid 80s.

Moisture increases Sunday with PWATS near 2" and 2.25" Monday
with continued strong onshore flow. So the greater coverage and
potential for heavy rain is shifting to Sunday and Monday. Have
widespread 60-70 PoPs both those days.

Beach and marine conditions will remain very hazardous. High Surf
Advisories, Rip Current Statements, and Coastal Flood Advisories
remain in effect. High tides are running 1-3 feet above normal and
this will continue to affect locations along the intracoastal
waters as well. We are also monitoring points along the St. Johns
River where heavy rainfall could lead to additional river
flooding. The river has already reached Moderate Flood Stage at
Astor and is forecast to reach Action Stage at Geneva early next
week.

Tue-Fri...Some drier air is forecast to (temporarily) move in Tue
or Wed. Then model guidance shows another strong high pressure
developing over the eastern CONUS mid week, keeping a brisk
onshore flow through the week with moisture transport off the Atlc
bringing scattered showers across the coast once again. High
temperatures close to seasonable in the mid 80s but above normal
overnight lows esp along the coast. May need to keep Coastal Flood
Advisories going much of this week due to high astronomical tides
adding to the mix of onshore flow and ongoing beach erosion.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Solid Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions are occurring over
the local Atlc waters as tight pressure gradient around sfc high
along the eastern seaboard supports ENE winds at 20-25 knots. A
weak wave of low pressure developing over the NW Bahamas will only
serve to tighten the gradient, however slightly, this weekend.
These winds and long period swell have built seas 7-11 feet and
these very hazardous conditions will persist through the weekend.
There should be some relaxation of the pressure gradient early
next week allowing speeds to dip below 20 knots esp across the
southern waters, but seas will be slow to subside. So have
extended the SCA for all the waters through Mon night and
additional extensions look likely esp for the offshore waters as
onshore flow is forecast to persist for the foreseeable future
with pressure gradient supporting 15-20 knots. Meanwhile,
moisture increases locally which will promote a high coverage of
showers and isolated storms containing heavy rain and cloud to
water lightning this weekend into early next week. Some drying
is forecast to move in from the northeast mid-week but it looks
short-lived.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Scattered showers continue to stream onshore this afternoon.
Some VIS/CIG reductions have been observed in heavier showers.
However, the generally scattered nature and the fact that this
activity is forecast to persist through at least 0Z make timing
any TEMPOs tricky and the sporadic nature trends to VCSH, as
opposed to SHRA. This will be monitored through the afternoon,
with TEMPOs as needed when heavier, training bands of showers
develop. VCSH looks to diminish for the interior this evening and
overnight, though showers will remain possible along the coast
through the period. Additional showers are then forecast Sunday. A
few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out, though the overall
threat for lightning is low.

Breezy conditions outside of any showers, with easterly winds near
15-18 kts and gusts up to 20-25 kts. Showers have and will
continue to locally enhance wind gusts to around 30 kts. Breezy
conditions will persist along the coast overnight, as inland winds
slacken to near 10-12 kts. Similar wind conditions are forecast
for tomorrow, increasing at the coast by 13Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  84  74  83 /  50  50  50  70
MCO  74  86  75  86 /  40  60  40  70
MLB  77  85  76  84 /  50  60  60  70
VRB  77  85  76  85 /  50  60  60  70
LEE  73  86  74  85 /  20  60  30  60
SFB  74  85  75  85 /  40  50  40  70
ORL  75  86  75  85 /  40  60  40  70
FPR  77  86  76  85 /  50  60  60  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for FLZ041-141-154-159-164-
     247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ141-154-159-
     164-347-447-647-747.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ550-552-555-
     570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Leahy