314
FXUS62 KMLB 212355
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
755 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

- A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for all east central
  Florida beaches through this evening. Large breaking waves
  around 5 feet and minor beach/dune erosion is expected.

- The HIGH Risk of deadly rip currents will persist through late
  week and into this weekend as lingering swells from Hurricane
  Erin continue to reach area beaches. Do not enter the Ocean!

- Offshore flow and increasing moisture will lead to higher
  shower and storm chances (~60-70%) during the afternoon/early
  evening hours each day late this week and into the weekend.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Today-Friday... Hurricane Erin is currently offshore the NC/VA coast
and is forecast to continue to lift north-northeast, moving farther
into the Atlantic, through the end of the week. As Erin continues to
lift N-NE, deep offshore flow will persist locally through the
period with speeds generally below 10 mph. The east coast sea breeze
is forecast to form each day, but will remain pinned towards the
coast due to the W/SW flow. The KMLB radar shows the east coast sea
breeze has formed already this afternoon, but for the most part,
remains just offshore. Increased moisture (PW values of 1.9-2.1")
will lead to higher rain and lightning storm chances (60-70 percent)
across the area through late week. Scattered to numerous showers and
lightning storms are forecast to develop and shift eastward each
afternoon. The greatest potential for showers and storms will be
along the coast where the sea breeze is pinned, as well as around
the Orlando Metro area, as storm/outflow boundary collisions occur
later into the afternoon, with this activity shifting offshore
through early evening. Some stronger storms will be possible each
day, with main threats including strong wind gusts to 45-55 mph,
frequent lightning strikes and locally heavy rainfall. Then, mostly
dry conditions are forecast each night.

Hot and humid conditions are forecast through late week, with plenty
of sunshine.  Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s each
day. These temperatures coupled with humidity will produce peak heat
indices of 102-107 degrees each day. Warm and muggy conditions will
continue into the overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Saturday-Wednesday... (Previous Discussion) Offshore flow prevails
through the weekend into at least early next week, as a front moves
into and stalls across north Florida. Moisture will only continue to
increase with PW values around 2+ inches. This will continue high
rain chances (PoPs up to 70% Sat/Sun and 60-70% Monday) and focus
greatest coverage of showers and storms toward the eastern side of
the FL peninsula. Some stronger storms will continue to be possible
each afternoon/evening. The deeper moisture and presence of the
frontal boundary will also increase the threat of locally heavy
rainfall, especially into Sunday, with a Moderate Risk for excessive
rainfall north of the Treasure Coast/Okeechobee County. High rain
chances and increase in cloud cover should keep highs a little
closer to normal in the low 90s, but peak heat index values will
still reach around 102-107 degrees each day.

Deeper moisture looks to shift east of the area toward the middle
portion of next week, which may allow shower/storm chances to trend
to more normal values. Have PoPs around 50% Tuesday and Wednesday.
Highs will tick upward, with values near to slightly above normal in
the low to mid 90s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Today-Monday... (Modified Previous Discussion)Poor to hazardous
boating conditions continue as Hurricane Erin east of the Carolinas,
will continue to lift north-northeast through late week. Swells from
Erin will continue to subside today through tonight, falling from 5-
7 feet this afternoon to 4-6 feet later tonight into Friday with
lingering 6 feet seas in the Gulf Stream through early next week. A
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for all the Atlantic
waters, except nearshore Volusia waters, through 8 PM, and then the
nearshore waters SCA ends, with the offshore waters remaining
through 11 PM. Long (11-12 sec) period swells will also lead to poor
to hazardous boating conditions at inlets during the outgoing tides
through early next week.

Winds remain below 15 KT through the period with winds out of the
west to southwest during the overnight and morning hours, and then
become more southerly into the afternoon and evening through late
week as the east coast sea breeze struggles to develop from the
offshore flow. Winds become more southwesterly into the weekend and
through early next week as a frontal boundary settles into north FL
and stalls.Offshore steering winds will also lead to an increased
threat for offshore moving showers and storms into the afternoon,
with some stronger storms possible each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 755 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

SHRA/TSRA are forecast to linger thru 02-03z before gradually
dissipating or pushing offshore. MCO/LEE and VRB/FPR maintain
TEMPOs for the next couple of hours with brief impacts (gusty
winds 30+ kt, MVFR/IFR conds) possible. Light WSW winds resume
overnight with more developing SHRA/TSRA after 15z-17z Fri.
Activity will generally move from west to east with erratic storm
motion at times. VCSH/VCTS was included for now, but TEMPOs are
likely in future TAFs for most ECFL terminals on Fri.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  90  75  90 /  40  70  50  70
MCO  76  93  76  92 /  30  70  40  70
MLB  76  93  76  92 /  40  70  50  70
VRB  74  94  74  93 /  30  70  50  70
LEE  76  90  76  90 /  30  70  40  70
SFB  76  92  76  91 /  40  70  40  70
ORL  76  93  76  91 /  30  70  40  70
FPR  73  94  73  93 /  30  70  40  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ552-555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ570-572-
     575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Schaper