Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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885 FXUS62 KMLB 092059 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 359 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 358 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 - Deteriorating boating and beach conditions today; High Risk of rip currents this weekend and into next week - Continued above normal temperatures well into next week; Highest rain chances on Monday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 358 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 Current-Tonight... Isolated to scattered showers continue to push onshore and well inland this afternoon, especially from Cape Canaveral southward. Temperatures as of 3 PM are in the low to mid 80s with easterly winds at 10-15 mph with gusts around 20 mph at times. Satellite and surface observations show a few low to mid level clouds streaming overhead, making for partly sunny skies this afternoon. Leesburg has tied their record high already this afternoon, which is 86 degrees (last set in 2018). Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes will continue to push E/SE towards the eastern seaboard through tonight. Breezy and gusty conditions remain this afternoon with east winds at 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph at times due to a tightening pressure gradient. These breezy and gusty conditions will continue into the overnight hours. Forecast soundings shows adequate moisture at the surface with PW values of 1.2-1.4" this afternoon. This will continue to support isolated onshore moving showers through tonight (PoP 15-20 percent). Some of these showers will push well inland this afternoon and early evening, especially Cape Canaveral southward. The threat for lightning storms remains limited due to these showers being shallow- topped. Thus, have left out the mention of lightning storms in the forecast into tonight. Warm conditions will persist, with temperatures remaining about 10- 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s along the coast, and mid 80s across the interior under partly sunny skies. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s under partly cloudy skies. Marine and beach conditions will continue to deteriorate into tonight producing rough surf and a HIGH risk of rip currents at the beaches. Entering the surf is strongly discouraged. Sunday... Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes will continue to push E/SE and off the mid Atlc coast on Sunday while building down the eastern seaboard. The pressure gradient will tighten over the local area, allowing for breezy/gusty easterly winds of 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph at times. Forecast soundings shows moisture increasing slightly, with PW values ranging from 1.3-1 .6". This will allow for onshore moving showers to continue through the day and into the overnight hours, with PoP 15-20 percent occurring along the coast and as far inland as Orlando. Some of these showers may push inland a bit, but shower activity is not expected to move as far inland as today. Much like today, lightning storm potential remains limited. Thus, have kept mention of lightning out of the forecast. Warm conditions continue, with well above normal temperatures forecast. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s along the coast, and mid 80s across the interior, which is 10-15 degrees above normal. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s, which is 8-12 degrees above normal for this time of year. Mon-Fri...(Modified Previous Discussion) A trough currently just east of the Bahamas will be steered westward around the southern periphery of the Atlc high pressure, then NW-N across the Florida peninsula Monday. NHC has been tracking this feature but continues to give it only a 10 percent chance for development. Nonetheless, moisture will increase with this feature on Monday resulting in scattered showers and isolated storms. With rain chances at 20-40 percent across most of the area, Monday looks like the best chance for rain. A weak cool front is forecast to push across the area Tuesday and absorb this disturbance, shunting the deeper moisture east away from the area. There should be lingering showers on Tuesday but prospect for lightning storms looks too low to mention. A period of breezy/gusty north to northeast winds is forecast Tuesday-Wednesday but max temperatures will only drop a couple degrees holding in the lower 80s. Have kept Wednesday dry but forecast model soundings show enough low level moisture to produce isolated, fast-moving showers off the Atlantic so may eventually need to add a small PoP then. A somewhat stronger cool front is forecast to push cleanly through the area late Thursday/Thursday night. Temperatures Friday will lower only back to near normal for this time of year as sfc wind flow quickly develops an onshore component but dewpoints/RH will be noticeably lower. A High risk of rip currents is likely to persist through early next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 358 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 Tonight- Wednesday... A reinforcing high pressure will build down the eastern seaboard through the weekend, with a surface trough or weak low lifting NW across the FL Straits into early week. A frontal boundary is then forecast to cross the area Tuesday. Breezy and gusty conditions returned this afternoon and will continue into Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens over the local area. Expect easterly winds at 15-20 KT Saturday and near 20 KT Saturday night/Sunday before winds decrease and become southeast at 10-15 KT on Monday, and northeast by Tuesday. Seas will respond into tonight, with seas building to 6 ft offshore this evening, and up to 7 feet overnight. Seas will continue to build on Sunday, with seas reaching reaching the 5-7ft across the nearshore and up to 8 feet in the offshore. Seas will subside into early week, becoming 5-6 ft on Monday, and 4-5 ft on Tuesday before increasing once again to 5-7 feet on Wednesday. Small craft should exercise caution in the waters this afternoon and evening with a Small Craft Advisory going into effect overnight across all the waters. Isolated showers will continue to be possible across the local waters through the weekend, with rain and storm chances increasing into early week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 1244 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 Isolated marine showers continue to push onshore to coastal terminals, even reaching as far inland as MCO this afternoon. Lowering stratus has begun to accompany these showers, yielding brief MVFR cigs. Easterly winds will be gusty at times, diminishing overnight everywhere except south of TIX. Isolated shower activity will persist through the period, increasing again tomorrow after 15Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 84 71 84 / 10 20 10 20 MCO 71 84 71 86 / 10 10 10 30 MLB 74 84 73 84 / 20 20 20 40 VRB 74 84 74 86 / 20 20 30 40 LEE 70 86 69 86 / 10 10 0 10 SFB 71 85 70 86 / 10 20 10 30 ORL 72 86 72 87 / 10 10 10 30 FPR 74 84 74 86 / 20 20 30 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM EST Sunday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 PM EST Sunday for AMZ552-555. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ570-572-575. && $$ DISCUSSION...Watson AVIATION...Schaper