447
FXUS62 KMLB 040541
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
141 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

- Holiday weekend plans will be accompanied by numerous showers
  and storms as plentiful moisture and nearby low pressure affect
  the state. The highest coverage will be in the afternoon and
  evening hours.

- The low pressure system east of Jacksonville has a medium (60%)
  chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression.
  Regardless of development, localized flooding is the primary
  threat for East Central Florida.

- More typical summertime coverage of afternoon and evening
  storms return next week along with increasing heat and humidity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Broad cyclonic flow is in place over Florida tonight as a weak low
pressure system (AL92) sits immediately offshore of NE Florida and a
mid-level trough remains essentially overhead. This disturbance is
combining forces with anomalous tropical moisture and an uncapped
troposphere to spawn numerous rounds of convection, particularly
during peak diurnal heating.

Steering flow is seasonably weak at our latitude, allowing little
movement of these features over the next 48 hours. The NHC
indicates a medium chance of tropical or subtropical development
over the next couple days to the north of our local Atlantic
waters.

By late Sunday, ensembles suggest that the area of low pressure and
associated deep moisture should begin to lift toward the Carolinas.
However, seasonably high total moisture should remain in place over
the peninsula. H5 heights are expected to build above normal into
next week, but the near-surface ridge axis is forecast to only lift
to near Central Florida by Tuesday. This portends a return to fairly
typical summertime weather.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today (Independence Day)...

Unfortunately, outdoor plans today will once again be greeted by
increasing coverage of rain and storms by afternoon and evening. The
overall pattern is essentially unchanged from the last couple of
days. Expect at least 80% areal coverage of showers/storms, peaking
around 3-7 PM. Lingering rain areas and embedded thunder will
persist after sunset though the intensity should be on the decline.

Primary hazards from today`s showers and storms remain occasional
deadly lightning strikes and torrential rainfall leading to
localized flooding. We did pick up some isolated 4" rain tallies
last evening; this is a reasonable worst-case scenario that persists
for today`s storms as well. A few wind gusts from 35-45 mph have a
low chance of accompanying the strongest storms.

Outlining the highest coverage areas remains somewhat difficult.
However, hi-res guidance does highlight the I-4 corridor yet again
in the late afternoon and early evening, likely due to interaction
with a weak sea breeze and proximity to the area of low pressure and
deepest moisture. Be sure to have a place to get indoors if you hear
thunder!

Highs in the mid/upper 80s will feel like the mid/upper 90s due to
the tropical humidity.

Weekend...

Low pressure to our north and residual tropical moisture will keep
us on the unsettled side. Expect above normal coverage of showers
and storms. Broad southwesterly flow should promote higher coverage
over the eastern half of the peninsula each afternoon. Locally heavy
rain leading to minor flooding remains our primary hazard along with
occasional to frequent lightning strikes. By Sunday, the highest
chance for storms may begin to favor the coast.

Expect seasonably hot upper 80s to low 90s and heat indices
exceeding 100F, particularly on Sunday.

Next Week...

Well, we finally get a reprieve from the stagnant weather pattern as
high pressure overtakes the state. However, seasonable moisture
values and more intense daytime heating should continue to spark
scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms (50-70%), with
the highest coverage over the interior. However, some of this
activity will likely make it to the coast especially as one
travels northward. This looks like a more typical summertime
pattern for the Sunshine State.

With more morning and early afternoon sunshine, the heat will become
a factor yet again for us. Widespread low and mid 90s are likely
with heat indices from 101-106F and at least a Moderate HeatRisk.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Weak low pressure north of the Volusia coast should push farther north
of the local waters through the weekend, allowing moderate southerly
to southwesterly breezes. Scattered to numerous showers and
storms are forecast. By early next week, high pressure begins to
push north from the Florida Straits, reaching the local Atlantic
and becoming nearly stationary.

Generally favorable nearshore seas outside of storms, 2-3 FT through
Saturday, then up to 3-5 FT well offshore Sunday before decreasing
on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

VFR conditions prevail through early morning, with light
southwesterly winds becoming variable at times. VCSH at the
terminals after 15Z as an area of low pressure nears the area,
becoming VCTS into the afternoon hours. Added TEMPOs at all interior
terminals and DAB for VIS/CIG reductions due to TSRA. Lower
confidence in timing from TIX southward along the coast, so stuck
only with VCTS. Conditions are forecast to improve after 03Z, with
westerly winds prevailing around 5 knots or less overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  74  88  73 /  80  40  80  30
MCO  88  74  88  75 /  80  50  80  40
MLB  87  74  89  75 /  80  50  80  40
VRB  88  70  90  71 /  80  60  80  30
LEE  89  75  88  75 /  80  40  80  40
SFB  89  74  89  75 /  80  40  80  30
ORL  89  75  89  75 /  80  50  80  40
FPR  88  71  90  73 /  80  60  80  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Tollefsen